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Do we know if they counted it?
ThreeBays saysPatrick saysBut vast swathes of the population have already had it
Nah, a very small proportion has had it overall. 3% maybe.
Source?
Patrick saysBut vast swathes of the population have already had it
Nah, a very small proportion has had it overall. 3% maybe.
100K deaths in a day would've happened some time in May if we carried on business as usual.
I'm not sure why you're so incredulous. We had around 2,500 deaths recorded today. One month ago we had 12, that's a 208x increase in one month. It's only a 40x increase from here to 100K.
I'm not sure why you're so incredulous. We had around 2,500 deaths recorded today. One month ago we had 12, that's a 208x increase in one month. It's only a 40x increase from here to 100K.
My prediction is we're not going to bottom out for quite a few months, and if we were to go back to normal the epidemic would spike right back up. It's a terrible catch-22.
WookieMan saysWe have 134k deaths WORLDWIDE as of this post. First known cases about early December 2019. Almost 5 fucking months deep. 80-90% of places didn't shut down after their first tested case. How in the flying fuck do you get to 100k in a day when we sat here opened up for MONTHS???
100K deaths in a day would've happened some time in May if we carried on business as usual.
I was talking about US now vs US one month ago. 12 daily deaths on March 15th. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
We can easily get an upper bound estimate on US infections. NYC has a population of 8.4M. If we say herd immunity is reached at 80%, then the upper bound on infected people in NYC is 6.7M. NYC makes up 40% of US covid deaths, so the upper bound of infected people in the US is 16.75M or 5% of the population. That's the UPPER BOUND.
We can easily get an upper bound estimate on US infections. NYC has a population of 8.4M. If we say herd immunity is reached at 80%, then the upper bound on infected people in NYC is 6.7M. NYC makes up 40% of US covid deaths, so the upper bound of infected people in the US is 16.75M or 5% of the population. That's the UPPER BOUND.
Pop density doesn't matter here, we're just talking about how many people are infected.
Demographics matter. Demographics wise, NYC has a younger population, and lower incidence of obesity than the nation.
Pop density doesn't matter here,
Reality saysIf each person gets his/her first exposure in a normal social setting, at low viral load, especially under a strong sun like on a beach or in a park (UV kills most airborne virus), then the person is effectively vaccinated (by the natural vaccine created by the Sun's UV); if most people have to get their first exposure in an indoor hospital setting with high viral load, then there would be a lot of sick/dead people from the virus.
Yeah, sorry I don't subscribe to theories pulled out of asses.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-15/covid-19-studies-imply-more-than-1-million-new-yorkers-with-virus
Based on women giving birth tested for covid-19 in NY, 15% tested positive. So NY hotspot has around 15% infection rate. Nationwide average would be around 1%.
Reality saysmore than 15%
It says "33 of them, or more than 15% tested positive". 15.4% to be precise. Taking things out of context just makes you wrong.
Great, so we established that somewhere between 1% lower bound and 5% upper bound of US will have had the virus in the first wave,
and 95% to 99% remain susceptible to further resurgence.
The upper bound of 5% for US is just math.
The ship theory you have is un-plausible speculation, just like your UV things. Alternative Reality.
So one test turned into two positive cases of COVID-19.
The accuracy of the current COVID-19 tests is not precisely known. Reasonable estimates, based on test performance in China and the performance of the influenza tests, are that the tests will correctly identify around 60 percent of the patients with the disease and correctly identify 90 percent of the patients that are disease-free.
Here's the paper I mentioned on another thread.
They're not trending well. Deaths are increasing 10% per day compared to neighbor Norway's 1.3%.
Disagree. The imperial college model for the impact of full shutdown of non essential businesses and schools is surprisingly close to where we're landing.
The more dead RepCons the less stupid America will be.
All Rep Cons care about is about their own stupidity. Please suffer & die.
It points to one main thing, We need more Testing
You still don't get it. This virus is going to kill who it's going to kill. We can't hide from it forever. No hospitals, in the US at least, are overwhelmed. Let's just get this over with and move on.
Arrrtggghggg!!!!
We all gonna die!!!!!
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