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Cahaly has honed several techniques for capturing this "shy" Trump vote, including asking respondents not only how they themselves will vote, but also how they think their neighbors plan to vote. Cahaly's rationale is this gives these more guarded voters a more socially acceptable method for expressing their own feelings, by projecting them onto others.""
Clever polling group asks people how they think their neighbors will vote
Patrick saysClever polling group asks people how they think their neighbors will vote
I'd tell them to take a hike
That’s a very Russian (Ex-pat) thing to think about being asked to report on your neighbors!
"The Trafalgar Group, a Georgia-based polling firm known for its ability to correctly sample hard-to-reach, conservative Trump voters, shows President Trump with leads in the key battleground states of North Carolina, Florida and Michigan.
During the 2016 presidential race — widely predicted wrong by the mainstream polling establishment —the Trafalgar Group was the only pollster within the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator to show candidate Donald Trump defeating rival Hillary Clinton in Michigan. Their polls in 2016 also showed Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania — again, they were nearly alone in projecting Trump's narrow victory there — and thus taking the White House. ...
What is driving Trafalgar's sixth sense? Cahaly has spoken publicly about what he calls "hidden" Trump voters, who face what he calls a "social-desirability bias," where conservative and independent Trump voters feel marginalized and fearful about expressing their support for the president due to social stigma in media and social media. Cahaly told RealClearPolitics this bias in 2020 is "worse than it was four years ago."
Even Trump's harshest opponents say there's likely truth to this supposition about "shy" Trump voters.
"It is historically difficult to defeat an incumbent president, No. 1," Steve Schmidt, a vocal Trump critic from the Lincoln Project and former campaign adviser to the late John McCain, told MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell. "I suspect that there is at least a point or two of undercount for Trump voters."
Cahaly has honed several techniques for capturing this "shy" Trump vote, including asking respondents not only how they themselves will vote, but also how they think their neighbors plan to vote. Cahaly's rationale is this gives these more guarded voters a more socially acceptable method for expressing their own feelings, by projecting them onto others.""