patrick.net

Meanwhile, Orthodox Jews' Trump parade on the Tappan Zee

HOLY SHIT!

WHAT?! DA FUQ?!

1 point gap? Youth Collapse?

mell says

There's a good chance that Trump wins AZ as Republicans are about to overtake Dems in early voting.

Repubs outnumbering Dems in early turnout in Michigan (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results)

The same in Wisconsin (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/wisconsin-results)

Almost in Arizona (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/arizona-results)

I was looking at Trump's approval ratings... he's up at 46% currently approval (it bottomed at 38% approval in June 2020)...

41% of independents currently approve (it bottomed at 33% in June 2020) ... keep in mind that only 42% of independents approved of Trump's performance during his first week in office.....

for October he is at about 45% approval... This is better than Bush Sr in October 1992 with 34% approval.... Obama had a 50% approval for October 2012 and Bush Jr had a 49% approval for October 2004...

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

.

One factor I noticed was that the independent's approval of Trump has increased the most since June 2020 to present day.

TrumpingTits says

In Michigan, this phenomenon is even more of a Booger erection on Viagra because every normal, non-TDS crazed Woketard in Michigan is royally pissed at Pritzker but he's not up for re-election until 2022. So Trump serves as a Proxy Middle Finger on top of his normal Middle Finger aspect.

Pritzker is IL. I know the MI governor is on the hot seat too for doing the nursing home shit like NY, so your sentiment still stands and is true the voters will go towards Trump. I'm also convinced IL is in play for Trump because of Pritzker. No one likes Biden. I see more "Pritzker Sucks" signs driving around than Biden or Trump signs. People are not happy with Dem governors and I do think that will translate to Trump votes as you say.

I frankly just want this all to be over with. The politicizing of a virus, similar to the flu has been nauseating. Everyone wears more masks and cases are "spiking" a day before an election? Do they think people are stupid? Not sure how it translates to votes, but vocal support for Trump in my peer group has been double to triple what it was in 2016.

This looks like a problem? 51% already voted??

Dholliday126 says

This looks like a problem? 51% already voted??

Not really. Atlanta voted it looks like from this map. Also, what does "Party is based on the most recent ballot" mean? That was likely from the spring just as Covid kicked in. Seems very loose with the criteria. Remember, people on this forum voted in the CA primary as Dems. If these stats are based off similar data, it's pure crap.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_nov02

Monday, November 02, 2020

President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie in Rasmussen Reports’ final White House Watch survey before Election Day.

The latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Biden edging the president 48% to 47%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

On Friday, Biden had a three-point advantage – 49% to 46% - after the lead had seesawed up and down between the two men for the previous four days. The race has been tightening since early last month.

Of course we know:

1. the polls are corrupt, attempting to favor Biden at all times
2. people are not even telling the truth to the corrupt polls, because the TDS crowd is violent
3. Trump does not need a majority to win

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354506/us-election-2020-donald-trump-win-poll-democracy-institute-joe-biden-swing-states

Trump = 326 [picks-up Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada]

Another reason Trump might win and not Biden: The Media didn't pump up the Libertarians and viciously attack the Greens as much as in 2016.

Going to vote today. Kiss my ass, California Liberal FuckTards! Won't count for shit, but too bad. I hope they don't have IHLs with secretary glasses and cudgels at the voting place, ready to 're-educate' Republican voters.

not sure when we will have the final result but I cant wait to see the radical left cry, bitch, complain and cry some more.....soon, very soon.

1:18 - 1:33 in particular
www.youtube.com/embed/ZNLbicelEjk

Leaked Zoom calls: Federal workers conspiring to shut down White House in contested election

www.youtube.com/embed/VrPXiz4m7nk

Wisconsin is a win. Republicans are leading in early voting - which is why the Governor suddenly said Thursday NOT to vote by mail anymore but try to vote in person.

Wisconsin went into 2016 with polling saying it was D+12. D+9 today.

TrumpingTits says

Don't believe this is real. Ain't no way CA will go Red. For them, "Better Dead Than Red" is a religious conviction.

That's extreme. With boots on the ground in IL, it definitely is going to be close and maybe in play. No way CA is. CO would be before CA. The vast majority of gamblers are not very intelligent either. So I take betting odds with a bit of skepticism. The map is going to be the most red we've seen since Regan though, that I'm convinced of. I'm just hoping it's enough to take the House, but I don't think that will happen.

Tenpoundbass says

Leaked Zoom calls: Federal workers conspiring to shut down White House in contested election

www.youtube.com/embed/VrPXiz4m7nk

If these people are federal workers, they must have missed their Hatch Act training!

How much is the market going to jump when Trump gets re-elected?

Booger says

How much is the market going to jump when Trump gets re-elected?

I don't think it's going to jump much. I think it's already built in considering we've had a single quarter with 30% plus loss in GDP. We'll see. Hearing rumors from business owners though that think 2021 is going to fucking smash records. I'm personally not seeing it, but who knows.

D's lead going into Election Day in NC 2016 was 10 pts.

It's about 1% going into Election Day 2020.

GA, FL, NC, OH aren't Swing States. It's Trump Country.

FL Dems only have 5% of their Supervoters (voted in 4 of 4 past General Elections). Republicans 13% left to vote. Then you have unaffiliated and the Dems that will swing for Trump - esp. Old Floridians and Retired Northerners who previously voted Dem by habit - that will vote Trump.

After the Dems had politicized the Black Churches (because we all know Dems are against religion and politics except when it favors them) on Sunday, and got about 12,000 more votes than going into 2016. BUT, Florida's population is almost one million larger, and the participation is through the roof - with the most enthusiastic counties being the Trump Powercenters. Furthermore, turnout in MDC and Palm Beach is way below 2016 for Dems. The Cubans abandoned them.

Final Prediction:
Senate stays Republican.
House stays Democrat but they lose several seats and barely retain control.

NC - Trump by 4-5%
FL - Trump by 1.5-3%
PA - Trump by 0.5-1%
GA - Trump by 4-6%
AZ - Trump by 3-5%
WI - Trump by 2-3%
MN - Trump by .5-1% - 1st SHOCK OF THE NIGHT
MI - Trump by .5-1.5%
TX and IA - comfortable 5%+ victory.

Games might be played in Arizona over McSally/Kelly and 'magic ballots' that appear out of nowhere but oddly only have the Senate selection but not the President marked. McSally-Kelly Senate race with be much closer than the Trump-Biden race in AZ and 'stealable'

Chances of two individual senate races:
John James: 45% chance of winning
Susan Collins: 55% Chance of winning (she took that seat in a blue wave and has held on to it; Do Maine Lobstermen and Lumberjacks care more about Kavanagh or Busting EU Trade Barriers?)
McSally: 45% Chance of Winning, let's face it, she's not Charismatic. She'd be better in an executive office than a legislative one.

My hope:
NY, MA, CA, IL, don't go Trump, but the margin of victory versus previous general elections are eaten away and is the second SHOCK OF THE NIGHT. I mean like a high single/double digit swings. Because of this, Trump wins the popular vote.

NoCoupForYou says

PA - Trump by 0.5-1%

I'm having trouble believing that Trump's margin in PA is going to be that small.

And Trump should win in NH. He only lost by 3000 votes and this time no out of state college kids are going to vote there.

Booger says

I'm having trouble believing that Trump's margin in PA is going to be that small.

I was going to say 2-3%, but I don't know how much the Governor will manufacture, or uh, "Find" fake ballots. Or if the Philly lumpenproles come out tomorrow.

NoCoupForYou says

My hope:
NY, MA, CA, IL, don't go Trump, but the margin of victory versus previous general elections are eaten away and is the second SHOCK OF THE NIGHT. I mean like a high single/double digit swings. Because of this, Trump wins the popular vote.

IL is barely in play. I still think it's possible. I think many forget that Hillary and Obama had roots here in IL. So 3 of the last 4 elections had hometown advantages. Nixon to HW Bush was Republican though. Before Pritzker we had a Republican governor. IL is more of a swing state when you take out the fact Obama and Clinton both lived here for whatever that is worth. I don't think it swings to Trump for sure, but it's going to be close and potentially a surprise.

https://www.bayvotes.org/Election-Info/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout

So far 67.25% turnout in Bay County, FL (home of Panama City Beach) or 83,829 votes...there are 124,653 registered voters in Bay County, FL.... This Florida panhandle county is 77% White (non Hispanic), 11% African American, 6% Hispanic, and the rest Asian, Native American, etc....

There was 75% voter turnout in 2016 when Trump got about 62,000 votes or 71% of the votes and Hilary got 24% (21,700 votes)

So far for 2020 early voting in Bay County, FL:

a) 48,987 Republican votes cast so far (58.4% of the total votes cast early, and 73.6% of the registered republicans in the county)
b) 20,248 Democrat votes cast so far (24.1% of the total votes cast early, and 68% of the registered democrats in the county)
c) 13,292 No Party Affiliation + 1,302 Minor Party Affiliation cast so far (51% of the registered "independent" or "other" voters in the county)

In Bay County, a vast majority of independent voters lean Republican so if even 60% of the 14,594 independent voters are for Trump, then 8756 votes are added to the 48,987 votes. so 69% of the early votes are for Trump.

The Trump campaign just said on a press call that they have the following projected breakdown in Pennsylvania:

- Biden leads by approx 750,000 votes heading into Election Day
- Trump gets 2.6 million votes in Election Day
- Biden gets 1.5 million votes on election day
4:35 PM · Nov 2, 2020

Booger says

The Trump campaign just said on a press call that they have the following projected breakdown in Pennsylvania:

- Biden leads by approx 750,000 votes heading into Election Day

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/pennsylvania-results

For Pennsylvania so far, the only early voting is by mail - in

3,043,864 million mail-in votes requested (63% Dem, 26% Rep, and 11% Indep)
2,383,062 million mail-in votes returned (66% Dem, 23% Rep, and 11% Indep)

If 50% of the independent votes are for Dems, then Dems got a 33% lead so far ... 33% x 2,383,062 is 786,411 vote lead by Dems in Pennsylania early voting...

That's not far off from the Republican conference call estimate (750,000 lead) that you cited... Maybe the independents are only 40% for Dems and 60% for Repubs ?

I can tell you in the Florida panhandle that about 70% of the independents vote reliably Republican....

....

ad says

I can tell you in the Florida panhandle that about 70% of the independents vote reliably Republican....

I say this cause even if all the registered Repubs voted for Trump in Bay County, Florida (home of Panama City Beach), then it would be 53% for Trump.

With 78% of the independent voters voting for Trump, that is how Trump got 71% of the total vote in the 2016 election in Bay County, Florida.

That is why I wonder if in Pennsylvania that we can say that no more than 50% of the independent voters will cast a vote for Trump, especially since a lot of those independent voters are in counties that represent the same demographics as Bay County (i.e., 77% white (non Hispanic)).

.