patrick.net

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354506/us-election-2020-donald-trump-win-poll-democracy-institute-joe-biden-swing-states

Trump = 326 [picks-up Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada]

Another reason Trump might win and not Biden: The Media didn't pump up the Libertarians and viciously attack the Greens as much as in 2016.

Going to vote today. Kiss my ass, California Liberal FuckTards! Won't count for shit, but too bad. I hope they don't have IHLs with secretary glasses and cudgels at the voting place, ready to 're-educate' Republican voters.

not sure when we will have the final result but I cant wait to see the radical left cry, bitch, complain and cry some more.....soon, very soon.

1:18 - 1:33 in particular
www.youtube.com/embed/ZNLbicelEjk

Leaked Zoom calls: Federal workers conspiring to shut down White House in contested election

www.youtube.com/embed/VrPXiz4m7nk

Wisconsin is a win. Republicans are leading in early voting - which is why the Governor suddenly said Thursday NOT to vote by mail anymore but try to vote in person.

Wisconsin went into 2016 with polling saying it was D+12. D+9 today.

TrumpingTits says

Don't believe this is real. Ain't no way CA will go Red. For them, "Better Dead Than Red" is a religious conviction.

That's extreme. With boots on the ground in IL, it definitely is going to be close and maybe in play. No way CA is. CO would be before CA. The vast majority of gamblers are not very intelligent either. So I take betting odds with a bit of skepticism. The map is going to be the most red we've seen since Regan though, that I'm convinced of. I'm just hoping it's enough to take the House, but I don't think that will happen.

Tenpoundbass says

Leaked Zoom calls: Federal workers conspiring to shut down White House in contested election

www.youtube.com/embed/VrPXiz4m7nk

If these people are federal workers, they must have missed their Hatch Act training!

How much is the market going to jump when Trump gets re-elected?

Booger says

How much is the market going to jump when Trump gets re-elected?

I don't think it's going to jump much. I think it's already built in considering we've had a single quarter with 30% plus loss in GDP. We'll see. Hearing rumors from business owners though that think 2021 is going to fucking smash records. I'm personally not seeing it, but who knows.

D's lead going into Election Day in NC 2016 was 10 pts.

It's about 1% going into Election Day 2020.

GA, FL, NC, OH aren't Swing States. It's Trump Country.

FL Dems only have 5% of their Supervoters (voted in 4 of 4 past General Elections). Republicans 13% left to vote. Then you have unaffiliated and the Dems that will swing for Trump - esp. Old Floridians and Retired Northerners who previously voted Dem by habit - that will vote Trump.

After the Dems had politicized the Black Churches (because we all know Dems are against religion and politics except when it favors them) on Sunday, and got about 12,000 more votes than going into 2016. BUT, Florida's population is almost one million larger, and the participation is through the roof - with the most enthusiastic counties being the Trump Powercenters. Furthermore, turnout in MDC and Palm Beach is way below 2016 for Dems. The Cubans abandoned them.

Final Prediction:
Senate stays Republican.
House stays Democrat but they lose several seats and barely retain control.

NC - Trump by 4-5%
FL - Trump by 1.5-3%
PA - Trump by 0.5-1%
GA - Trump by 4-6%
AZ - Trump by 3-5%
WI - Trump by 2-3%
MN - Trump by .5-1% - 1st SHOCK OF THE NIGHT
MI - Trump by .5-1.5%
TX and IA - comfortable 5%+ victory.

Games might be played in Arizona over McSally/Kelly and 'magic ballots' that appear out of nowhere but oddly only have the Senate selection but not the President marked. McSally-Kelly Senate race with be much closer than the Trump-Biden race in AZ and 'stealable'

Chances of two individual senate races:
John James: 45% chance of winning
Susan Collins: 55% Chance of winning (she took that seat in a blue wave and has held on to it; Do Maine Lobstermen and Lumberjacks care more about Kavanagh or Busting EU Trade Barriers?)
McSally: 45% Chance of Winning, let's face it, she's not Charismatic. She'd be better in an executive office than a legislative one.

My hope:
NY, MA, CA, IL, don't go Trump, but the margin of victory versus previous general elections are eaten away and is the second SHOCK OF THE NIGHT. I mean like a high single/double digit swings. Because of this, Trump wins the popular vote.

NoCoupForYou says

PA - Trump by 0.5-1%

I'm having trouble believing that Trump's margin in PA is going to be that small.

And Trump should win in NH. He only lost by 3000 votes and this time no out of state college kids are going to vote there.

Booger says

I'm having trouble believing that Trump's margin in PA is going to be that small.

I was going to say 2-3%, but I don't know how much the Governor will manufacture, or uh, "Find" fake ballots. Or if the Philly lumpenproles come out tomorrow.

NoCoupForYou says

My hope:
NY, MA, CA, IL, don't go Trump, but the margin of victory versus previous general elections are eaten away and is the second SHOCK OF THE NIGHT. I mean like a high single/double digit swings. Because of this, Trump wins the popular vote.

IL is barely in play. I still think it's possible. I think many forget that Hillary and Obama had roots here in IL. So 3 of the last 4 elections had hometown advantages. Nixon to HW Bush was Republican though. Before Pritzker we had a Republican governor. IL is more of a swing state when you take out the fact Obama and Clinton both lived here for whatever that is worth. I don't think it swings to Trump for sure, but it's going to be close and potentially a surprise.

https://www.bayvotes.org/Election-Info/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout

So far 67.25% turnout in Bay County, FL (home of Panama City Beach) or 83,829 votes...there are 124,653 registered voters in Bay County, FL.... This Florida panhandle county is 77% White (non Hispanic), 11% African American, 6% Hispanic, and the rest Asian, Native American, etc....

There was 75% voter turnout in 2016 when Trump got about 62,000 votes or 71% of the votes and Hilary got 24% (21,700 votes)

So far for 2020 early voting in Bay County, FL:

a) 48,987 Republican votes cast so far (58.4% of the total votes cast early, and 73.6% of the registered republicans in the county)
b) 20,248 Democrat votes cast so far (24.1% of the total votes cast early, and 68% of the registered democrats in the county)
c) 13,292 No Party Affiliation + 1,302 Minor Party Affiliation cast so far (51% of the registered "independent" or "other" voters in the county)

In Bay County, a vast majority of independent voters lean Republican so if even 60% of the 14,594 independent voters are for Trump, then 8756 votes are added to the 48,987 votes. so 69% of the early votes are for Trump.

The Trump campaign just said on a press call that they have the following projected breakdown in Pennsylvania:

- Biden leads by approx 750,000 votes heading into Election Day
- Trump gets 2.6 million votes in Election Day
- Biden gets 1.5 million votes on election day
4:35 PM · Nov 2, 2020

Booger says

The Trump campaign just said on a press call that they have the following projected breakdown in Pennsylvania:

- Biden leads by approx 750,000 votes heading into Election Day

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/pennsylvania-results

For Pennsylvania so far, the only early voting is by mail - in

3,043,864 million mail-in votes requested (63% Dem, 26% Rep, and 11% Indep)
2,383,062 million mail-in votes returned (66% Dem, 23% Rep, and 11% Indep)

If 50% of the independent votes are for Dems, then Dems got a 33% lead so far ... 33% x 2,383,062 is 786,411 vote lead by Dems in Pennsylania early voting...

That's not far off from the Republican conference call estimate (750,000 lead) that you cited... Maybe the independents are only 40% for Dems and 60% for Repubs ?

I can tell you in the Florida panhandle that about 70% of the independents vote reliably Republican....

....

ad says

I can tell you in the Florida panhandle that about 70% of the independents vote reliably Republican....

I say this cause even if all the registered Repubs voted for Trump in Bay County, Florida (home of Panama City Beach), then it would be 53% for Trump.

With 78% of the independent voters voting for Trump, that is how Trump got 71% of the total vote in the 2016 election in Bay County, Florida.

That is why I wonder if in Pennsylvania that we can say that no more than 50% of the independent voters will cast a vote for Trump, especially since a lot of those independent voters are in counties that represent the same demographics as Bay County (i.e., 77% white (non Hispanic)).

.

ad says

That is why I wonder if in Pennsylvania that we can say that no more than 50% of the independent voters will cast a vote for Trump, especially since a lot of those independent voters are in counties that represent the same demographics as Bay County (i.e., 77% white (non Hispanic)).

Large portions of PA are pretty much Alabama. Yes, this is based on personal observations.

Booger says

Large portions of PA are pretty much Alabama. Yes, this is based on personal observations.

That is what I am wondering about the "non party affiliation" or "independent" voters in Pennsylvania.

I suspect they are a very small % of the total voters in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas.

So they are more in rural counties of Pennsylvania, that resemble more Alabama and the Florida panhandle. If that is the case, then at least 62% of the independent voters in Pennsylvania should vote for Trump.

.

Media is selling this like TRUMP needs to win states.

Once Trump wins Florida again-

Biden MUST get Pennsylvania AND Michigan AND at least ONE other state Trump had in 2016 to win

Even if Biden takes PA, MI, and holds MN, he still needs another flip somewhere. If WI and AZ stay Trump, he has no other likely gains that could put him over the top

NoCoupForYou says

Even if Biden takes PA, MI, and holds MN

I'll probably eat my words later, but I don't think Biden wins any of the states in the comment I'm quoting from you. I didn't think the polling could be any worse than '16, but I think we might be seeing the worst polling data ever. I'm not talking 3.5 margin of error. Wouldn't be shocked if some of this data is off 7-10%.

It's rare to find a Biden voter even here in IL and Pritzker may have squashed the down ballot Dems here in IL. I'm hopeful, but the IL Republican party is pure trash, so I always 2nd guess my gut feeling here. If Trump gets within 5 point in IL, then states like AZ and NV are most certainly going to Trump and we can be in bed by 9-10pm central time and wake up to news of the temper tantrums for a day or two and then move on with life. Hopefully.

WookieMan says

It's rare to find a Biden voter even here in IL and Pritzker may have squashed the down ballot Dems here in IL. I'm hopeful, but the IL Republican party is pure trash, so I always 2nd guess my gut feeling here. If Trump gets within 5 point in IL, then states like AZ and NV are most certainly going to Trump and we can be in bed by 9-10pm central time and wake up to news of the temper tantrums for a day or two and then move on with life. Hopefully.

I am surprised at how Americans trust their voting system. Why do you suppose such a weak candidate like Biden was run? He makes Walter Mondale look like a god in comparison. The election will be stolen, Kamala Harris is our next president.

richwicks says

Why do you suppose such a weak candidate like Biden was run?

Why was Hillary run and Trump defeated her? It's about organization. Democrats have failed miserably for about 2 decades now. Obama was a fluke and fucked up the "plan" for the party knocking Hillary off. They haven't recovered since then. There will have to be massive and identifiable voter fraud for Biden to win in my opinion.

While I don't trust the system 100%, I just can't and don't see Biden winning. No one likes the guy, and that's saying something running against Trump.

WookieMan says

While I don't trust the system 100%, I just can't and don't see Biden winning. No one likes the guy, and that's saying something running against Trump.

Who cares if nobody likes Biden? Harris was thrown out of the race when Tulsi Gabbard ripped her a brand new asshole. Here, the salient parts are the beginning:

www.youtube.com/embed/Y4fjA0K2EeE

Where she lied about benefiting from busing for desegregation. I doubt she's EVER gone to a public skool.

https://heavy.com/news/2020/08/kamala-harris-montreal-canada/

And 3:50 is when Tulsi Gabbard knocked her right out the race. So why was Kamala Harris picked? Because she'll be a loyal puppet. Nobody likes either of them, they're still going to "win". Hope to eat my own words in a few days, but I don't think I will be. I've given up on the country.

We're not a republic, we're not a democracy. We're in an oligarchical dictatorship. Kiss the country goodbye - it's gone.

The new humiliation of the future, showing what a flagrant idiot you were. "Really, YOU voted for Biden?" Snicker, smirk, roll eyes, point while gagging with mouth over hand.

richwicks says

So why was Kamala Harris picked? Because she'll be a loyal puppet. Nobody likes either of them, they're still going to "win". Hope to eat my own words in a few days, but I don't think I will be. I've given up on the country.

She checks multiple leftist boxes. Kind of black, Asian and a woman. Also won statewide office in CA. They're pandering. And yes, you are correct she'll be a loyal puppet. As I said though the Democrats are a shit show and this is just another layer on their shit cake.

Do I trust the system, hell no. But Hillary was groomed once Bill left the WH to be the first woman POTUS. Senator and then Secretary of State. Obama fucked up her plan so threw here a bone by getting her a resume building position as SOS. Just another feather in her cap. Trump beat her. What in the flying fuck does Biden offer? Trump now has a track record. I don't see how Biden/Harris win this thing. Thought Trump was toast in '16. There's double and triple the signs and support this round in my area in "deep blue" IL.

I think this likely gets 90% decided tonight. Hopefully. If it drags on that's just more BS. The West coast of this country doesn't much matter at this point. AZ or NV would be nice, but we should know by 10-11pm ET who won.

I don't agree with much from Gabbart, but she is obviously very intelligent and honest. And she fucking raked Harris through the coals so bad that they pretty much banned her from the debates after that.