patrick.net

Buffett only invests in things he understands
This may sound obvious to some: only invest in things you understand. However, too many investors, especially retail investors, chase investments based on headlines and stock tips from friends. They don’t do their research or conduct due diligence before investing. Rather, they hear about this “hot technology” and simply buy the stock. Or, they hear about that stock that soared 20% and automatically conclude it will jump another 20%. Sometimes, stocks go up for all kinds of reasons, and this “strategy” may work. Over time, and across an entire investment portfolio, however, it won’t work. In contrast, Buffett has a set of investment principles that he follows. He prefers to invest in stable consumer goods companies like Coca-Cola and financial services companies like American Express AXP +0.8%. If a potential investment falls outside his area of expertise, he rarely, if ever, buys it. Sometimes, there are exceptions, but mostly Buffett invests only in sectors and business models that he understands.

Should you buy Bitcoin: Do you have a set of investment principles? Or, do you simply buy what you read or hear about it without conducting any independent research? Couldn’t you simply buy Bitcoin to own it even if it doesn’t fit your typical investment criteria? Sure. When you think about portfolio strategy, however, you should understand why you own every position (and if you’re comfortable buying a position that you may not fully understand).

Crypto is not gold. It's a game of musical chairs. Don't be left standing when the music stops.

Bitcoin is a highly speculative investment
For some, Bitcoin is the single greatest investment in their lifetime. For others, it’s a speculative bubble that will crash to zero. Buffett doesn’t play in this sandbox. Why? Buffett isn’t a speculative investor; instead, he invests in companies that have a wide economic moat. While all investing involves some degree of speculation, Buffett’s background is in insurance and risk mitigation. Buffett doesn’t invest in “high fliers”—that’s not his game. His game is “buy and hold”—forever. He invests in companies that grow over time, steadily and consistently.

Should you buy Bitcoin: Here is a helpful way to approach a potentially speculative investment. The upside is easy: you make a lot of money. As I explain in The Lemonade Life, focus on the downside. Are you comfortable with Bitcoin being worth zero? Are you willing to lose 100% of your investment?

Should you buy Bitcoin?
You need to decide for yourself, and with the help of your financial advisor, if Bitcoin is right for you. Warren Buffett is only one investor. Critics say he doesn’t understand cryptocurrency or blockchain technology, and he’s already missed some of Bitcoin’s meteoric rise. After all, regardless of the underlying reason, each Bitcoin is now worth about $34,000. Isn’t that proof enough that it’s a good investment? Maybe. It’s possible, although unlikely, that Buffett ultimately changes his mind. Buffett said for years he wouldn’t buy technology stocks, only later to buy Apple AAPL +0.9%. Until then, however, Buffett is not a fan of Bitcoin and says he never will be.

It's gambling.

Why Cryptocurrency Market Cap Doesn’t Matter

If you were to ask the average person in the cryptocurrency community where they go to find the success of a specific digital currency, they’ll likely point to sites like World Coin Index, Coin Market Cap, or some other market cap platform. Based on the rankings these lists provide, users believe they can garner further insight into the valuation of a currency. Basically, the higher a coin ranks, the better it is performing.

The sad reality is that there isn’t much value in these types of list, and using them doesn’t make a lot of sense...

If you’re unfamiliar with market capitalization, it is measured as the total value each share of a company based on its current market price. You can calculate market capitalization by multiplying the amount of outstanding shared times the market price. For instance, if your company has 100,000 shares outstanding, and the price of one share is $2.50, then your market capitalization comes to $250,000.

CoinMarketCapitalization and similar sites use this system with cryptocurrencies and base their lists on the same basis that the stock market used. The market cap of a specific digital currency is stated as the number of coins on the market (or the circulating supply) multiplied by the price of the coin.

Determining Value
The more coins that are in circulation or the higher the price of a given cryptocurrency, then the higher it will rank on the CoinMarketCap site. The problem here is that many people place a lot of value on a coin’s market cap ranking, which is questionable at best. CoinMarketCap’s value is nonsensical, something that a lot of folks simply don’t realize.

Hypothetical Situation
Let’s say you decide you want to start a cryptocurrency. You set up your blockchain with 100 million coins at the outset. Once you’re all set up, you then go to your friend and ask that they buy one of your coins for $10. If you use the same calculations as CoinMarketCap, your new coin now has a market capitalization of $1 Billion.

Congratulations! You now own a cryptocurrency that ranked in the top ten on CoinMarketCap. This despite the fact that only $10 have been invested into a coin which is now valued at $1 billion USD...

Many believe that market cap is the amount of investment a cryptocurrency has received. This is not the case and can be shown by using a simple calculation. Let’s use Bitcoin for instance:

As recently as December of 2018, the first coin had a market capitalization of $100B on CoinMarketCap. However, just 12 months earlier, Bitcoin was listed with a market cap of three times the amount at $300B.

Before we get too far, let’s first calculate the amount actually invested in Bitcoin. There are on average, 1800 Bitcoins mined each and every day. Up until July of 2016, there were double that amount, or 3600 Bitcoins mined per day. Prior to that, there were 7200 Bitcoins mined each day.

Now, let’s assume that every BTC mined was traded by the miners as a means to pay for expenses such as hardware, electricity, and so on. That means there were buyers for their Bitcoin and that the mined BTC was sold for the market price the same day it was mined.

The remaining volume traded each day moves back and forth by Bitcoin based on the amount invested, which doesn’t add up to much. At that point, you’ll see increases, except those times when a trader takes a loss on their Bitcoin.

Based on daily growth, and ignoring the daily rate, the calculations tell us that there might have been a little over $10B investing in Bitcoin as of December 2018. But don’t forget that miners may not sell all their Bitcoin and that there are reports that Bitcoins have been lost or misplaced as well. That means that CoinMarketCap is valuing Bitcoin at more than 10 times the actual amount invested in the coin itself...

Wrapping Up
Using market cap to evaluate cryptocurrencies is nonsense. It is a number that assigns a fabricated value to a coin based manipulating the way said value is calculated. This means market cap is an unsuitable method to measure and rank coin value or importance.

This value does not give insight into how much capital has been invested into a coin, nor does it give any indication of the quality of the cryptocurrency itself. It only shows that there are some clever marketing folks in the industry who are creative in how they manipulate the supply of coins in circulation.

https://toshitimes.com/why-cryptocurrency-market-cap-doesnt-matter/

scam

Onvacation says

Why Warren Buffett will never own bitcoin.

Buffett believes that Bitcoin has no underlying value. As a value investor, Buffett invests in companies that are undervalued, produce stable and recurring cash flow and have the ability to increase in book value. To Buffett, Bitcoin doesn’t produce earnings or dividends. Rather, the value of Bitcoin is simply what one person is willing to pay for it. In this regard, Bitcoin is no different than the tulip craze of 1637. Therefore, Buffett believes that Bitcoin has no inherent value.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/01/03/bitcoin-hit-34000-but-heres-why-warren-buffett-will-never-own-it/?sh=5f5d271e42bb

There is no there there.

Don't idolize buffet he hasn't been doing that great lately and made most of his recent wins via backdoor taxpayer secured deals from the 2008 crisis. It's easy when you have a direct line to the secretary of the treasury and the government. He is a great investor but has mostly stepped down anyways, it's not his world anymore. And I think it's wrong to say it has no value. There is a middle ground between worthless and 100k

mell says

Don't idolize buffet

Just sharing his ideas about bitcoin, which I agree with.

mell says

I think it's wrong to say it has no value. There is a middle ground between worthless and 100k

It's has negative value. It takes an incredible amount of energy just to maintain it. As all incoming cash gets consumed there is no store of value.

But It does have uses.

G36 says

Thats easy

Missing from the chart: Store of Value - Stability.

Remember when old Joe Kennedy said he knew it was time go get out of the market before 1929 when his shoeshine boy started giving him stock tips?

Ceffer says

Remember when old Joe Kennedy said he knew it was time go get out of the market before 1929 when his shoeshine boy started giving him stock tips?

But how would one get out of BTC "market" when he never was in it in the first place? =))

WookieMan says

This all has turned into bullshit because of one spammer.

Now I see what you mean. He shared some informative, insightful information on his thread about the topic. But he's spammin' other threads and trolled someone else called "Zak" on another. Now I see why you lost it.

@B.A.C.A.H.
one can BS the threads with contradicting statements all day long. Doesn't bother you. But because I reminded ZAK of the rules to keep it civil you call me a spammer.
Look, I get that people are pissed....They have been trashing Bitcoin since years and have to now witness Bitcoin's rally to 40k shortly after breaking its previous ATH.
I can lead a horse to the water but cant make him/her drink....

Someone will break the algorithm for mining with quantum computing and bitcoin will fail the same week.

rocketjoe79 says

Someone will break the algorithm for mining with quantum computing and bitcoin will fail the same week.

@rocketjoe79

yeah, for sure, and if quantum computing wont kill Bitcoin the Nuclear EMP will do the trick.
At some point it will be dead. In the meantime we are going to >100k.

G36 says

yeah, for sure, and if quantum computing wont kill Bitcoin the Nuclear EMP will do the trick.
At some point it will be dead. In the meantime we are going to >100k.

Or the rubes will wise up and get out while someone is still willing to pay for your 1.9 "coins".

Onvacation says

G36 says

yeah, for sure, and if quantum computing wont kill Bitcoin the Nuclear EMP will do the trick.
At some point it will be dead. In the meantime we are going to >100k.

Or the rubes will wise up and get out while someone is still willing to pay for your 1.9 "coins".

>100k is a bit vague. My reach the 200-300k range per precious digital gold coin (Bitcoin)

G36 says

>100k is a bit vague. My reach the 200-300k range per precious digital gold coin (Bitcoin)

I have this really rare matchbox car. They're not making any more. Currently it,s only worth about 10 grand but someday I am certain it will sell for a couple hundred grand.


And it's REAL!

and dont forget Ethereum! It may land in the 20-25k range at the end of the cycle! currently trading at around 1200. A steal!

5,200 Tobacco Shops in France Now Sell Bitcoin.

French fintech startup Keplerk announced Thursday that it has resumed service selling BTC at “Tabacs” in and around Paris, after halting the service earlier this year. A Tabac is a convenience store licensed to sell tobacco products. These stores also sell newspapers, lotto tickets, scratch games, telephone cards and postage stamps.
https://news.bitcoin.com/5200-tobacco-shops-in-france-now-sell-bitcoin/

There's your retail demand.

Onvacation says

5,200 Tobacco Shops in France Now Sell Bitcoin.

French fintech startup Keplerk announced Thursday that it has resumed service selling BTC at “Tabacs” in and around Paris, after halting the service earlier this year. A Tabac is a convenience store licensed to sell tobacco products. These stores also sell newspapers, lotto tickets, scratch games, telephone cards and postage stamps.
https://news.bitcoin.com/5200-tobacco-shops-in-france-now-sell-bitcoin/

There's your retail demand.

@onvacation
This article got me excited. This Nasdaq listed company is buying $100M worth of Bitcoin. That itself is normal nowadays (PayPal, Square, MicroStrategies, hedge funds, banks have been pouring in millions of USD in precious digital gold coins (Bitcoin). The exciting part is that this company also mentions Ethereum as a store of value in their statement:

"Meanwhile, in addition to BTC, Greenpro Capital says it also believes that “other top cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum will provide the opportunity for better returns and preserve the value of our capital over time rather than holding cash.”

Yes, yes, yes! Smart money should absolutely buy Ethereum as well!!!

https://news.bitcoin.com/nasdaq-listed-greenpro-capital-to-set-up-bitcoin-fund-using-a-100-million-loan/

G36 says

This article got me excited.

Um kay.

I'm going to stick to real stuff like tulips and beanie babies and matchbox cars. It kind of sucks that you can't play with the cars. It lowers their value.

Bitcoin down to 35k at the movement, hope its a buying "opportunity" for some.

Blue says

Bitcoin down to 35k at the movement,

Nooooooo!

Eric Holder says

Blue says

Bitcoin down to 35k at the movement,

Nooooooo!

Wait until is goes to $0 USD ;)

WookieMan says

Eric Holder says

Blue says

Bitcoin down to 35k at the movement,

Nooooooo!

Wait until is goes to $0 USD ;)

And then back up the truck? =))

Eric Holder says

WookieMan says

Eric Holder says

Blue says

Bitcoin down to 35k at the movement,

Nooooooo!

Wait until is goes to $0 USD ;)

And then back up the truck? =))

Go big or go home. Back up one of these:



Could easily fit a couple hundred thousand flash drives in there for sure.

‘Prepare to lose all your money’ — regulator’s blunt warning on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

The U.K.’s financial regulator on Monday issued a very blunt warning about the rise of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The warning was prompted by firms “offering investments in cryptoassets, or lending or investments linked to cryptoassets, that promise high returns,” the Financial Conduct Authority said.

The regulator said it had five concerns: Consumer protection, price volatility, product complexity, charges and fees, and marketing materials. “There is no guarantee that cryptoassets can be converted back into cash. Converting a cryptoasset back to cash depends on demand and supply existing in the market,” the regulator said.

The market cap of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies topped $1 trillion last week, according to CoinDesk. Bitcoin BTCUSD, -13.01% over the last 12 months has gained 330%.

Bitcoin, ethereum ETHUSD, -19.25% and other cryptocurrencies tumbled on Monday, with double-digit percentage declines.

WookieMan says

Eric Holder says

WookieMan says

Eric Holder says

Blue says

Bitcoin down to 35k at the movement,

Nooooooo!

Wait until is goes to $0 USD ;)

And then back up the truck? =))

Go big or go home. Back up one of these:



Could easily fit a couple hundred thousand flash drives in there for sure.

R u sure bigger ones are not available? Don't want to settle for inferior shit, you know....

Onvacation says

stick to real stuff

Absolutely! Thats the problem with matchbox cars and physical coins. They take up space, may collect dust and can easily be counterfeited. The Chinese can manufacture those things for a few pennies and you barely can tell a difference to what you think is the original.
With precious digital gold coins (Bitcoin) its different. There is no double-spending and counterfeiting with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the real deal.

Eric Holder says

“There is no guarantee that cryptoassets can be converted back into cash. Converting a cryptoasset back to cash depends on demand and supply existing in the market,”

Also known as the greater fool theory.

G36 says

They take up space, may collect dust and can easily be counterfeited.

Where as with Ethereum you literally have nothing to lose.

Onvacation says

with Ethereum you literally have nothing to lose.

Well, there is still some risk. No investment is a sure bet. But your upside potential with Ethereum is enormous! It think it will do great in 2021!
It was only 700 on Dec 28th. Its close to 1k as of now! Wow!

To summarize so far:
Bitcoin is a scam
It has no store of value.
It consumes all incoming money.
It requires an INCREDIBLE amount of power just to maintain it.
It is not used in transactions.
It is incredibly volatile.
The only way to get your money out is if someone else puts their money in.
It is used to collect ransom, launder money, pay off nefarious characters. (lol)

If you are in crypto in spite of knowing all of the above you are a gambler that doesn't care about the harm it causes to the environment and the rubes that think it is "digital gold". Or you are the rube.

Bitcoin is nothing other than a chain letter or pyramid scheme. It's based on thin air so don't be caught without a chair.

Bitcoin haters seem active today. Bitcoin Is up 100% since a month ago :)
We finally corrected today, which was very needed to push this bull market forward in a sustainable way! Its not healthy for Bitcoin to just go up in a straight line.
Smart money has made big investments in Digital Gold (Bitcoin) and retail is coming in hot! Check out those google Bitcoin search trends I have been talking about for a while now!
I am pretty sure the 2017 Bitcoin google trends will soon just be a blip on the chart.

Coinbase has over 35 million members. Recently it has been adding over 1 million new members per month. These are not sophisticated investors. The median account size is less than $1000.

While a drop from $40k to $35k per bitcoin is a "nothingburger" to a long term Holdr, for a Starbucks barrista, who cash advanced $4k to buy into Bitcoin at $40k on his credit card; the loss is staggering.

Of course the price could go up from here, Bubbles have a way of expanding far beyond what people think possible.

@Misc

That Starbucks barista made out like bandits if he invested left over money from his paycheck in Bitcoin in the recent years! Congrats to that guy!
Bitcoin is up over 12,000,000% over the past 10 years. Depending on when the barista got in, he might be rich!

Coinbase also offers services to institutions not just retail. Rumor has it, Coinbase facilitate the hundreds of million dollar purchase of Bitcoin by Michal Saylors Microstrategies!

Coinbase - for new users (That could be you Misc)
Coinbase Pro - for users like me
Coinbase Prime - Institutions
Coinbase OTC - big fish

G36 says

Smart money has made big investments in Digital Gold

Want to debate any of the points I made above?

Bitcoin is no longer "overbought" on the RSI. Corrections are healthy and needed to shake out weak hands. A lot of people must have panicked today. Why? Dont they know each dip is an opportunity to load up the truck? Just look at the data!

This chart says it all.