patrick.net

Negative ROI unless you self install. Maybe helps with roi If you drive electric.

Fortwaynemobile says

Negative ROI unless you self install. Maybe helps with roi If you drive electric.

huh? are you talking the first year?
it also depends on where you live.....in places like Socal, getting solar is a no brainer.

For me it was the equivalent of pre-paying for my electricity for the next 8-10 years provided the consumption stays the same. The thing with solar is: once you have the panels on the roof your family will start treating electricity as "free" and your consumption will go up, so you'll end up either paying for the extra kWh or installing more panels. So at least make sure your system is easily expandable.

UPD. I decided to not go ahead with the installation if this is not clear from the original post.

Eric Holder says

For me it was the equivalent of pre-paying for my electricity for the next 8-10 years provided the consumption stays the same. The thing with solar is: once you have the panels on the roof your family will start treating electricity as "free" and your consumption will go up, so you'll end up either paying for the extra kWh or installing more panels.

or you oversize a bit from the beginning. We use the AC constantly during summer and fall even though we get an ocean breeze here. I admit I treat electricity as free since i dont pay for it. (solar is all paid for).

Eric Holder says

For me it was the equivalent of pre-paying for my electricity for the next 8-10 years provided the consumption stays the same. The thing with solar is: once you have the panels on the roof your family will start treating electricity as "free" and your consumption will go up, so you'll end up either paying for the extra kWh or installing more panels. So at least make sure your system is easily expandable.

Same with electric, hybrid cars. Investment Tax Credit actually is the amount taken by sellers/installers for how much they can bump the price.

krc says

what ROI did you use?

Wells Fargo is offering 0.02% on CDs. PG&E rates are +24 cents per kWHr baseline. You're gonna beat that with a solar install. Just do it. And buy it,don't lease.
I'd also consider putting in some mini-splits for CA fire season. They'll allow you to condition your space without having to bring in outside, smokey air.
I went with Sun, Light, and Power -- this was almost a decade ago. They're local and have been around for a while, so if you have a problem (which is unlikely) you'll be able to go back to them. The rep handling my job ended up leaving the company, so it was a bit rocky. But ultimately, when my roofer was on site, I told them to get their act together, and they sent out a team to coordinate and got it done.

G36 says

Fortwaynemobile says

Negative ROI unless you self install. Maybe helps with roi If you drive electric.

huh? are you talking the first year?
it also depends on where you live.....in places like Socal, getting solar is a no brainer.

For me it’s like paying 10-15 years in advance. Not worth it.

I know a guy who did it himself on a cheap, he paid for the plans and bought panels, self installed.

How much do roofers charge extra to install your new roof around your 10 year old solar panels?

Asking for a friend.

G36 says

Fortwaynemobile says

Negative ROI unless you self install. Maybe helps with roi If you drive electric.

huh? are you talking the first year?
it also depends on where you live.....in places like Socal, getting solar is a no brainer.

One should also consider the possibility that anyone opposed to outsourcing to China will find themselves cut off from the power grid, especially since Biden bend the US over so China could fuck us that way:

https://patrick.net/post/1337827/2021-01-23-biden-rescinds-trump-order-banning-chinese-communist-involvement-in-us-power-grid

So if you want to be relatively certain of having electricity in the future without kowtowing to China, you might want solar cells for that reason alone.

Patrick says

So if you want to be relatively certain of having electricity in the future without kowtowing to China, you might want solar cells for that reason alone.

Your typical solar power system w/o a battery will shut down if the grid is cut off. The $10K battery they usually offer can't support the whole house - only a fridge, a TV and couple of LED lights. So you'll still need a generator if you truly want to be off-grid capable. A generator tied into nat gas line works the best and can kick in automatically.

Eric Holder says

Your typical solar power system w/o a battery will shut down if the grid is cut off.

Most newer inverters will have (sometimes as an option) a 110V/15A outlet for emergency use when the grid goes down. That plus a hybrid or BEV maybe enough to get you through sporadic outages. For areas with frequent outages, a generator may be your best bet.

On economics of solar -

Most "calculators", blog posts, articles, and sales pitches all use overly simplistic math for solar economics, which ignores the cost of capital and opportunity cost, giving a very misleading result.

For almost anything I buy, I always consider the opportunity cost. For most people, I think it's sensible to use whatever your long term investment investment CAGR is expected to be. i.e., if you invest in a s&p500 etf, maybe 6 or 7% CAGR is a good inflation adjusted figure for opportunity cost, assuming that if you did not buy solar, you would instead use the money to buy stocks.

So, if the solar system cost $10k, you better be comparing the solar savings to the returns of $10k put into stocks instead of solar.

But, its easy to do even better than that by comparing scenarios.

Lets say you spend $100 a mo on elec, but if you had solar, that would go down to $10 a mo. And assume the solar system costs $10k, and that you get 6% CAGR on your stocks/capital. Setup the scenarios like:

A) no solar
Starting capital: $100,000
Annual return: 6%
Monthly additional contribution: -$100
https://www.calculator.net/investment-calculator.html?ctype=endamount&ctargetamountv=1000000&cstartingprinciplev=100000&cyearsv=25&cinterestratev=6&ccontributeamountv=-100&ciadditionat1=monthly&printit=0&x=59&y=15
End Balance $361,558

B) with solar
Starting capital: $90,000
Annual return: 6%
Monthly additional contribution: -$10
https://www.calculator.net/investment-calculator.html?ctype=endamount&ctargetamountv=1000000&cstartingprinciplev=90000&cyearsv=25&cinterestratev=6&ccontributeamountv=-10&ciadditionat1=monthly&printit=0&x=0&y=0
End Balance $379,505

Compare them for 25 years, as that's the expected life of the solar system.

Note that the starting capital accounts for cost of the 10k solar system. Also, the monthly contribution is negative to model the different electric bill for each case.

Also, this is a relative calculation, meaning the difference between the 2 final numbers is what you need to look at. If you start with more capital you'll get a different result, but the difference between the 2 results will not change. You need to make sure you have enough starting capital so that you never go negative in the calculation, otherwise you'll get a wrong result, which is why I used 100k as a safe starting point.

Anyway, in this case, solar leaves you with about $18k more net worth. My gut feeling also tells me that the solar scenario has less risk than the stock scenario for expected returns.

Last year I noticed tesla was selling solar at prices far lower than I had ever seen elsewhere before - they say roughly $1.50 a watt after incentives. They say I can get a 4kw system, including install and permits etc... for $6k + tax.

Generally, solar doesnt pay itself off unless your a high electricity household. pg&e tells me I'm a bit below average usage compared to similar homes in my area, but this telsa price still works out to be a good investment for me according to my math. I've been checking solar prices/economics for almost a decade now, and the numbers never worked, until now.

Hircus says

Last year I noticed tesla was selling solar at prices far lower than I had ever seen elsewhere before

you get what you pay for. Their reviews are terrible.
https://www.solarreviews.com/view-review?reviewid=55989

Had a friend who worked for tesla solar as a general manager. He said I should def not consider tesla for solar installs.

Hircus says

they say roughly $1.50 a watt after incentiv

$1.50 is very good for an installed system.

@Hircus, thanks for the calculator links. It gave me hope that even my crappy little system may one day break even.
However, the calculators fail to capture every time the California PUC screwing over PG&E ratepayers. But really, how can you quantify the endorphin rush you get when you realize your solar costs are fixed while everyoness rates are going up?

stfu says

How much do roofers charge extra to install your new roof around your 10 year old solar panels?

Asking for a friend.

The solar company has to take them off. They charge thousands to take them off and put back. Roofers are not touching them.

Common scam is solar companies lie and say they’ll do it for 150$, but in a few years you find out that it’s still gonna cost you few thousand.

Fortwaynemobile says

Common scam is solar companies lie and say they’ll do it for 150$, but in a few years you find out that it’s still gonna cost you few thousand.

OR your solar company closed door after few years, you have to deal with completely new company and will charge you to remove and put back costs

REpro says

Fortwaynemobile says

Common scam is solar companies lie and say they’ll do it for 150$, but in a few years you find out that it’s still gonna cost you few thousand.

OR your solar company closed door after few years, you have to deal with completely new company and will charge you to remove and put back costs

It seems that if you plan to replace your roof in just a few years, wait until then to put up solar panels. The panels will have improved by then, and modern roof shingles have a 30 year life span. You may even have the option by then of actual solar shingles.

EBGuy says

However, the calculators fail to capture every time the California PUC screwing over PG&E ratepayers. But really, how can you quantify the endorphin rush you get when you realize your solar costs are fixed while everyoness rates are going up?

I have my own calc I wrote which allows me to increase the year//monthly contribution by a % per yr, and I use that to account for the increasing electric bills. I've seen web calcs that allow it too, but didn't have a link handy.

But doing that is essentially accounting for inflation, and so you also need to do the same for the stock gains. 6-7% is inflation adjusted s&p, so I usually instead use 8-9% to estimate non adjusted stock returns. For energy, I'm not sure how fast prices rise, but my own bill in CA sure seems to go up much higher than inflation, so I enter 4 or 5% for that.

But I think one should also run the numbers as if your elec bill didnt increase rapidly, just to see how things would work out, because a rising bill favors the solar case. At least pg&e, and likely other utilities, have been gradually making solar less appealing. I think 5-10 years ago the net metering terms were much more favorable than they are now, and I would expect them to keep gradually unsweetening the solar economics like theyve been doing.

If it doesn't favor PG&E, they will burn down your house.

Gotta put that into your calculations.

5 years ago I had vivint install the panels on my home. No cost at all on my end. They had a deal where they do the installation, they own them, you purchase the power from them at a lower rate than the electric company, and that rate is fixed at 1.2% growth per year. Seemed like a no-brainer given the inflation we are headed for. Funny thing though, I always said, if the price ever got more expensive (highly unlikely) I can just turn them off. There was nothing in the contract against that.

Basically I figured, panels will be much much much more efficient 10-15 years down the road. I wasn't going to install a soon to be obsolete product on my roof.

Once upon a time, the people of California got out their spreadsheets when buying a car. They calculated the price difference, fuel economy, and suggested maintenance costs. Overwhelmingly the spreadsheets said to buy Japanese and Korean cars, vans and trucks. Guess whose tax money went to bail out the American car companies when they went bankrupt?

If this solar nonsense is going to hurt PG&E, guess whose tax money is gonna bail them out?

solar nonsense? my solar is paid off. i dont even think about using the AC anymore. I just have the perfect temp in my house all year long. electricity prices trend up over time and you will have more and more electronics in your house. most likely you will have an EV in the next few years. If you have access to the sun most of the year (places like socal) solar is a no brainer to me.

The original post was asking for recommendations about installers.

The thread got hijacked by folks giving their opinions on having solar but not answering krc's question.

I follow his thread because I am also an interested Bay Area resident. So far, only EBGuy answered krc's question.

B.A.C.A.H. says

The original post was asking for recommendations about installers.

... and "When you decided to purchase/lease, what ROI did you use? "

Nothing got "highjacked".

B.A.C.A.H. says

The original post was asking for recommendations about installers.

He asked about ROI. That opens a can of worms when you discuss solar because there is no "right" answer. So you're going to get a bunch of opinions.

Unless one plans to live in the home a long time, 10 plus years, solar is probably the worst thing you can do to a home. It hurts property value if you're the only home of the block with it. Might be different (normal/accepted) in sunny areas, but I'd guess 80% of the country you'd be the oddball house with solar. It's fucking ugly. Roof leaks because it's impossible to not have them. Timing of roof replacement with install of solar panels. You might have to toss shingles that have 10-15 years left. So window to install is tiny to maximize the returns or you're pissing away useful singles.

I won't touch solar unless it's a new build or you're replacing the roof AND going to live there for 10+ years. Reality of the conversation is it's only if you want independence from the "grid" or are trying to save $150/mo. If you want to save $150/mo, it will be substantially easier to just make more money, especially if you're a 2 income household. Solar really makes no sense unless you're trying to be "green" or whatever. You're just making installers and panel companies money. Really all there is to it.

https://m.alibaba.com/product/60512742362/free-shipping-5kw-solar-and-wind.html?__detailProductImg=https%3A%2F%2Fs.alicdn.com%2F%40sc01%2Fkf%2FHc33dd8cc36034659b30d9da6f01b9288w.jpg_200x200.jpg

Was tempted with alibaba kits. Alibaba has diy kits might be worth it. I am not sure if I trust random china manufacturer.

China made might not last long.
I can't chat in Chinese if I need help or parts.

Thinking of having enough power to run small fridge , tv n one appliance . Other times I can use it for one ac or heater. This is safeguard if powergrid collapse.

KgK one says

Thinking of having enough power to run small fridge , tv n one appliance . Other times I can use it for one ac or heater. This is safeguard if powergrid collapse.

Eric Holder gave the best answer. Nat. Gas generator. Even with batteries and solar, a stormy couple of days happens even in sunny CA. You're fucked. All cold/frozen food garbage if the grid goes out. Just getting back on track assuming it's not a long outage is going to cost more than a month or two of groceries. I know you're not attempting to go 100% solar, it's just in an emergency it's literally the worst backup option.

Nat. Gas that has the possibility to be converted over to propane is the best bet. Usually you can, I've converted grills between each gas. The higher volume might complicate things, but you should be able to switch out between the gasses.

Solar is done when the sun goes down or it's cloudy and your batteries run out. Unless it's a targeted attack on gas suppliers, gas lines will have pressurized gas flowing no matter what.

Solar is a total virtue signal. It doesn't do much and makes people feel good about themselves in my opinion. I'd avoid it for the cost. Tons of other things to do to save or better yet make $150/mo more than sink it into solar. If it was efficient and made sense, 100% of the non-farmable land in the country would be covered with it. It doesn't make sense as most the land in the country is barren West of the Mississippi.