patrick.net

Obligatory... ALL! TIME! HIGH!

SF housing market is falling, but the liquidity in the stock market is massive. This is a melt up fueled by money printing. Corrections have been short lived though I expect a bigger correction soon, no crash. Inventory outside of SF remains relatively low, so they don't see the downward pressure SF is seeing. Rent vs buy still favors rent.

G36 says

porkchopexpress says

"I Guess It's Too Late to Get Into Crypto" -- a short story by Unknown

It's 2011. BTC has recently hit $32. I tell myself "Damn...I should have bought some when it was $0.50 a BTC. $32 is too expensive. Guess it's too late to get into crypto." BTC later falls to $2 and I don't buy any.

It's mid-2013. BTC has recently hit $220. I tell myself "Damn...I should have bought some when it was $32 a BTC. $220 is too expensive. Guess it's too late to get into crypto." BTC later falls to $70 and I don't buy any.

It's late 2013. BTC has recently hit $1100. I tell myself "Damn...I should have bought some when it was $220 a BTC. 1100 is too expensive. Guess it's too late to get into crypto." BTC later falls to $315 and I don't buy any.

It's 2017. BTC has recently hit 20k. I tell myself "Damn...I should have bought some when it was $1100 a BTC. 20000 is too expensive. Guess it'...

Maybe a little but at the same time the only thing you're basing your buying on is that it will go higher. At least with a stock you own part of a physical thing. Or at least something that generates a profit. An economy based on money printing and gambling has got to go sideways at some point.

Rin says

Ppl, stocks like AT&t (T) and Altria (MO) are already beaten down vs the S&P500 index. With divs at 7+%, even with an additional slide in price, compounding your divs (DRIP) will get you to many more shares making it worth your while.

I'd thought those two break your high-debt rule for DRIP?

WineHorror1 says

the only thing you're basing your buying on is that it will go higher.

Elon Musk just f'ed all bitcoin haters. Do you think he's starting a trend? He's the cool kid on the block and people follow him. Richest man alive buys 1.5B of Bitcoin with his company.

Watch Bitcoin shoot up to over 100k this year. Sry you gonna miss out and watch us celebrate for the next few months.

G36 says

He's the cool kid on the block and people follow him. Richest man alive buys 1.5B of Bitcoin with his company.

Yes, yes, yes.... Follow the guy risking OPM. That's the best bet. Jesus this can't get any dumber.

Look up the words leverage and risk. Musk has both, just throw the word no in front of one and you'll see how you're being conned.

Rin says

Ppl, stocks like AT&t (T) and Altria (MO) are already beaten down vs the S&P500 index. With divs at 7+%, even with an additional slide in price, compounding your divs (DRIP) will get you to many more shares making it worth your while.

How will these do in a high inflation environment?

https://www.oann.com/reports-bidens-policies-to-produce-massive-inflation/

Reports: Biden’s Policies To Produce Massive Inflation

Economists are warning that Joe Biden’s policies may cause double-digit inflation, unseen since the late 1970s.

“Unfortunately, the Biden administration may be about to repeat the same mistakes as Jimmy Carter, only this time it will be far worse,” Kevin Freeman, financial terrorism expert at the Center for Security Policy said. “In the four years of Jimmy Carter, the annual inflation rate rose from 5.7 percent before he took office, to 13.5 percent when he left.”

Economists said Biden’s crackdown on U.S. oil production would drive up gas prices at the pump and hurt U.S. consumers, while benefiting Iran and Russia. They also warned Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan would devalue the U.S. dollar, making consumer prices higher.

“President Trump slashed regulation, but Biden promises to increase it,” Freeman stated. “So a 30 percent increase in regulation, which is something we can expect, would add 2 percent to the inflation rate just by itself.”

Biden has singlehandedly raised the price of oil/gasoline.

He will fuck up lots of things before he is out.

WookieMan says

G36 says

He's the cool kid on the block and people follow him. Richest man alive buys 1.5B of Bitcoin with his company.

Yes, yes, yes....

I know right? This news is huuuuuuuuuuuuge and it will start a trend. Soon, every large player wants Bitcoin on their balance sheet.

"Bitcoin rockets to record high of $48,000 after Elon Musk's Tesla buys up $1.5 billion - with one backer saying the currency could hit $100,000 in 2021"

"You're going to see every company in America do the same thing [as Tesla]," Novogratz,

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bitcoin-price-record-high-48000-elon-musk-tesla-michael-novogratz-2021-2-1030059669

G36 says

Soon, every large player wants Bitcoin on their balance sheet.

Of course. When big news is an online world forum pumping BTC only having 22k people sign up... in a world of 7B people. Of course that translates to all the big players getting in.

Musk has you guys conned and it's funny. What he's doing likely will go down as the biggest pump and dump of any financial instrument in the history of the world. You do know why he wants to get to Mars, right? Maybe read up on him some more and understand his motivation. You don't know when the plug will be pulled. You don't have to be smart, you don't have to be lucky, you just have to be able to lose more if you want. You'll learn.

WookieMan says

G36 says

Soon, every large player wants Bitcoin on their balance sheet.

Of course.

Not just we agree but also the experts.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/elon-musk-tesla-6-crypto-experts-15-bln-investment-bitcoin-2021-2-1030056077

"Tesla's bitcoin acquisition is a strong signal for a new era of integration between the cryptocurrency ecosystem and mainstream business, in which tokens increasingly act as not only a store of value but tangible medium of exchange."

"This moment will likely be looked upon in years to come as a genuine tipping point; Elon and Tesla's support legitimizes crypto and opens up bitcoin to a whole new class of retail and institutional investors. Now it seems all of Wall Street is in bed with this industry - if they weren't paying attention before, they are now."

So as usual. No original thought at all. Can't even respond to what I said. Musk has you conned. Read about him if you're able.

WookieMan says


yep. He's got the vision and power to start trends! Very happy about his Bitcoin decision!

Experts see it like we do:

"The richest person in the world just told you he does not believe in holding dollars as a long term store of value. We have heard from the smartest investors in the world and now we have heard from the richest people in the world, they all agree that having 5-10% of your net worth in BTC is a critical part of a well diversified portfolio."

Does bitcoin need to be injected into every post at this point its trolling, bitcoin isn't everything when it comes to investing.

RC2006 says

Does bitcoin need to be injected into every post at this point its trolling, bitcoin isn't everything when it comes to investing.

you are right. I like to invest in RE, stocks and Bitcoin/Crypto.

RC2006 says

Does bitcoin need to be injected into every post at this point its trolling, bitcoin isn't everything when it comes to investing.

I'd agree. I've stated my motivation in this back and forth and admit I'm feeding it. I'll stop when the spamming, click baiting, link baiting stops from these clowns. It's dangerous.

So Musk took capital which he needs to run/expand his business and purchased a digital currency with it? Well, when he needs to use it he will have to sell, may be for a gain, might be for a loss, but that should send a signal to buyers of his debt that he doesn’t really need as much money for actual capital expenses as he says he does....

ForcedTQ says

So Musk took capital which he needs to run/expand his business and purchased a digital currency with it? Well, when he needs to use it he will have to sell, may be for a gain, might be for a loss, but that should send a signal to buyers of his debt that he doesn’t really need as much money for actual capital expenses as he says he does....

there is a reason why he's the richest man. Tesla is swimming in cash. Look at the marketcap/stock price. Tesla is 10 years ahead of the competition. This wasnt by chance but by smart decisions. Holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet as diversification is part of it. A big F U to the Bitcoin doubters. I cant take all this winning :)

G36 says

there is a reason why he's the richest man.

The government tit.

So I'm already 4X in $TSLA. Should I sell now, lock in profits, and wait for a future buying opportunity?

rocketjoe79 says

So I'm already 4X in $TSLA. Should I sell now, lock in profits, and wait for a future buying opportunity?

One wise man once said: "If you don't know what to do right now - do nothing".

Eric Holder says

rocketjoe79 says

So I'm already 4X in $TSLA. Should I sell now, lock in profits, and wait for a future buying opportunity?

One wise man once said: "If you don't know what to do right now - do nothing".

Now, that Tesla bought Bitcoin, TSLA will continue to skyrocket.

Apple following soon?

"Apple positioned to offer cryptocurrencies: RBC report"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-crypto-currency-apple-idUSKBN2A82I4

https://fortune.com/2021/02/08/tesla-bought-bitcoin-will-apple-be-next/

"The possibility has more than the usual Bitcoin bulls roused. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets, a Canadian investment bank, see the potential for Apple to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet as part of a broader strategy they believe could turbocharge the iPhone maker’s already fast-growing payments business."

just_passing_through says

New company I hired onto is allowing the Mega Backdoor Roth. I'm going to be able to stuff up to (I think) 58K into retirement accounts this year. I may be off by $500 or something.

I seem to recall that if your income (AGI or MAGI) was too high, you couldnt contribute to a roth. I think the phaseout started around ~120k and by ~130k MAGI, you couldn't contribute at all.

I know if you contribute pretax income to a 401k (about 19k per yr max is allowed), that reduces your MAGI, which helps keep you under the roth limit. But a software engineer making 150k would probably still be over the limit to contribute to a roth unless they have other MAGI adjustments, which I think are very uncommon.

Does mega backdoor roth bypass these income limits?

I knew this stuff once, but that was 5+yrs ago, and now I forgot lol.

RINs suggested altria MO group is doing well.

Thanks for that idea.

Atnt has little going for it though, their plans r 2 to 3x t mobile plan.

Not sure if they have other items to justify current price. Divident is great though

mell says

Corrections have been short lived though I expect a bigger correction soon, no crash. Inventory outside of SF remains relatively low, so they don't see the downward pressure SF is seeing. Rent vs buy still favors rent.

An acquaintance just had Foster/Redwood City tenants break (a somewhat recent) lease and decamp the Bay Area. Well, supposedly they'll continue paying until he finds another tenant. Will keep an eye on that situation.

Hircus says

Does mega backdoor roth bypass these income limits?

I knew this stuff once, but that was 5+yrs ago, and now I forgot lol.

I don't think so. This is what I received at work:

After-Tax contributions are beneficial to employees who are already contributing the IRS 402(g) limit of $19,500 (or $26,000 for those 50 or older). After-Tax 401(k) contributions allow you to make additional tax deferred contributions up to the Total Contribution Limit, 415(c), of $58,000 for 2021 ($64,500 for those 50 or over). Once you max out your traditional or Roth 401(k) contributions, you are still able to contribute up to $38,500 in After-Tax money.

Once contributed, After-Tax contributions can be converted to Roth contributions with all their tax benefits. Setting up an automated conversion of your after-tax 401(k) contributions to Roth 401(k) contributions immediately after contributions are made each pay period with Fidelity can result in your earnings growing and being distributed tax-free if certain requirements are met. Please read Q6 of the After-Tax FAQ document for converting after-tax money to Roth.

The trick is to make that call to Fidelity the first pay period and set it on auto. That way it's continuously being transferred to my Roth at TD Ameritrade each paycheck.

As far as I'm aware you can convert as much as you want through the back door. Say, for instance you switched jobs and had 1-million-dollars in a 401K. You could roll that over into your Roth you'd just have to pay taxes on it. But that's after you leave. These new offerings are great to stuff things in a hypothetical tax shelter. I say hypothetical because who the fuck knows with our fraud govt.

I'm a scientist/engineer though and not any sort of person you should take investment advice from.

KgK one says

RINs suggested altria MO group is doing well.

Yeah, I read despite their debt it's manageable because they only have to roll over 1.5 billion each year and not all of it. Apparently it is likely a non-issue as they grow into new products and out of cigs. Although they still sell a lot of cigs.

ATT I have no idea. I remember reading they may be the poster child for a company with bad debt taught in schools in the future. But what do I know...

For the most part, if one simply wants a safe vehicle, build something that looks like State St's dividend ETF, SPYD, for yourself. This is the S&P div tracker which separates out the Googles, Amazons, and Teslas which have obscured the S&P500 into a growth biased index rather than an income one.

And the whole idea behind keeping some in MO & T (and I've dumped all of NLY as I'm not into the leveraged mortgage REIT) is that we're near or at a market top. Since these stocks have basically been beaten down already, they really can't go down much further which is great because if the market goes down, then you'll get even more shares per quarter than earlier during the bear channel.

But yeah, they're not a long term buy/hold like a Coca-Cola, J&J, or P&G which you really never need to sell.

Altria has been just solid for me for 13 years straight now. It got beaten down when people were croaking from illegal vape shit but they regularly beat earnings and payout. Decent growth in that time as well.

theoakman says

Altria has been just solid for me for 13 years straight now. It got beaten down when people were croaking from illegal vape shit but they regularly beat earnings and payout. Decent growth in that time as well.

Likewise, I held RJ Reynolds for a long time and that got me some 15:1 with the DRIPs.

zzyzzx says

How will these do in a high inflation environment?

If stagflation returns, then you'll have to move into energy stocks which can pay its divs, given higher costs of fuel and its production/distribution which will be passed onto the consumer.

I think that eventually, Biden/Harris will simply disappear when ppl realize that a 'green economy' is BS, just like the hydrogen one where all vehicles have Ballard fuel cells.

hey y'all
what happened with the stock market correction? Seeing an all time high on my stock portfolio....where are the market timers here? Or did they mean next year?

G36 says

hey y'all
what happened with the stock market correction? Seeing an all time high on my stock portfolio....where are the market timers here? Or did they mean next year?

Tech looking tired, job numbers sucked, but you have inflationary forces working against any pull-down. We had a brief jitter but probably didn't qualify for a correction, it's more volatile though so keeping some cash to daytrade the swings works well. I'd still be careful here, it's still early into 2021.

Fed will be buying stock market direct lol instead of just bond buys... Stimulus check in the pot no way the market dumps,
not that a vulture black swan isn't flying over it just hasn't found the spot to land yet but be on the look out when DX hits the 88+/- area things could
change very quick.

Cash says

Fed will be buying stock market direct lol instead of just bond buys... Stimulus check in the pot no way the market dumps,
not that a vulture black swan isn't flying over it just hasn't found the spot to land yet but be on the look out when DX hits the 88+/- area things could
change very quick.

One thing you notice more now are larger profit taking dumps whenever the market has pulled ahead for the day for a while, we don't have the eternal ascending boring market anymore. Roughly 20% in cash now, but still plenty left to swing or invest into select biotechs.

stimulus (=money printing) and super low rates. Productivity at our company is through the roof with the majority of people working remotely.
I imagine its similar at other tech companies too. The ones that were already not making it got hit the hardest (service/retail).
No way we see a noticeable correction in the stock market. Especially, because we have soo many people calling for a crash.
I would actually favor some higher rates.....housing is running a bit too hot.

As expected the correction is here, TSLA being taken to the woodshed, as mentioned earlier you won't see 900 again for a long time if at all. Those lofty valuations will come to an end. All of tech battered, taking gains was prudent as well as having at least 10%, better 20%+ cash reserves. People realized xi-den doesn't do shit unless told to sign papers by his puppet masters, and cummala well you know how she goes. Welcome to volatility. Don't think we will see a full on crash, but def a significant correction before volatility subsides.

I've been reading (and seeing) myself the flow of money back out of tech, and into commodities. Stocks associated with oil, copper, metals and materials of actual value are trending back up, as they've been seriously suppressed the last year and a half. The large majority of my stock portfolio is now in oil and ammo stocks. Ammo I think will be short lived, while oil stocks will skyrocket over the next 1-2 years.

that WAS a nice buying opportunity for TSLA

TSLA is vastly overvalued here - 900 was a gift to sell to all those riding it. If the market correction gains a hold, TSLA will likely go to $500 which is almost a 50% haircut. If it trades sideways it may stay in the $600-$700 range.