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Stock market and housing bubble.

By RC2006 follow RC2006   2021 Jan 6, 11:11am 4,474 views   280 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


With all that's going on how is stock market going up, is it inflation speculation driving it? Are we approaching housing bubble?

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241   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Apr 5, 9:52am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
Part of my animosity towards CA. That place should be destroyed.

Hey, that's my home you're talking about.

If you want to send in an army to overthrow the regime I will support you, but destroying the state to save it won't work. The democrats have been trying that for decades.
242   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 5, 9:54am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
WookieMan says
Part of my animosity towards CA. That place should be destroyed.


Lol, beautiful weather here in SoCal :) Some people seem very jealous! :)
243   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Apr 5, 10:01am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

There's no doubt about the fact that CA, and esp. SV has brought tremendous progress and growth to the US as well as wealth. The decades leading up to Y2K were golden years for many in SV and traditional family values were still abound. The vibe was libertarian. CA lost its way in the new millenium, so the degeneration isn't older than 20 years. OK, Gray Davis / Enron was a big turd, but besides that CA was doing well in the last century. The more rural areas are still beautiful and sport much more common sense.
244   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 5, 10:17am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
The more rural areas are still beautiful and sport much more common sense.


Exactly. People in other states dont even know about these beautiful rural areas in CA. There are some hidden gems.....not for long....unfortunately, people will build more and more here over time.
245   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2021 Apr 5, 12:21pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
There's no doubt about the fact that CA, and esp. SV has brought tremendous progress and growth to the US as well as wealth. The decades leading up to Y2K were golden years for many in SV and traditional family values were still abound. The vibe was libertarian. CA lost its way in the new millenium, so the degeneration isn't older than 20 years. OK, Gray Davis / Enron was a big turd, but besides that CA was doing well in the last century. The more rural areas are still beautiful and sport much more common sense.


You left out the part about the tsunami of H1's
246   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Apr 5, 7:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
Americans usually max out everything to afford their dream home


Yes, but not me, and the frustration with all those others is what drove the creation of this site to begin with.

I finally arrived, in a way. I gave notice at work today, will be done with work in two weeks.

I'm able to retire early because I put it all in the stock market and not in the housing market.

Starting after April 16th, I'll be able to put more effort into fixing problems on this site and starting some other projects I've been wanting to work on.

I expect the stock market to implode and an asteroid to hit after that for good measure. Just so I don't expect too much and thereby ruin my good luck.
247   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 5, 8:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
I finally arrived, in a way. I gave notice at work today, will be done with work in two weeks.

I'm able to retire early because I put it all in the stock market and not in the housing market.


Damn! Congratulations @Patrick!!!

How old are you? in your 40's? 50's?
249   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 5, 8:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
50's

Awesome! You retired in your 50's and are a life long renter in CA? Many people say renting long term in places like CA is financial suicide. You clearly prove them wrong.
250   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Apr 5, 9:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It was always cheaper for me to rent than to own the same house here, from the moment I first rented it until now.

I mean this on a monthly cash flow basis, but also with regard to appreciation. The appreciation in the stock market was almost always better than the appreciation in the housing market, even in California.
251   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Apr 5, 9:15pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
mell says
Americans usually max out everything to afford their dream home


Yes, but not me, and the frustration with all those others is what drove the creation of this site to begin with.

I finally arrived, in a way. I gave notice at work today, will be done with work in two weeks.

I'm able to retire early because I put it all in the stock market and not in the housing market.

Starting after April 16th, I'll be able to put more effort into fixing problems on this site and starting some other projects I've been wanting to work on.

I expect the stock market to implode and an asteroid to hit after that for good measure. Just so I don't expect too much and thereby ruin my good luck.


Wow!! Congratulations! Need to make some dough for a few more years, besides I very much enjoy the tech I currently work with as well as trading, but I def see semi-retirement on the horizon in the 50s as well. This needs to be celebrated.
252   just_passing_through   ignore (7)   2021 Apr 5, 9:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Perfect time to buy some bitcorn Pat!
253   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2021 Apr 5, 9:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
I'm able to retire early because I put it all in the stock market and not in the housing market.


Congratulations!
254   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 5, 9:59pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

just_passing_through says
Perfect time to buy some bitcorn Pat!

He already owns Bitcoin....0.01 Bitcoin.
255   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Apr 5, 10:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Now I'm worried about taxes and how to minimize them.

I found a great site about this:

https://www.gocurrycracker.com/never-pay-taxes-again/

The downside to his strategy is that it hurts your ability to get Obamacare subsidized insurance. But he talks about that as well:

https://www.gocurrycracker.com/obamacare-optimization-early-retirement/
256   zzyzzx   ignore (2)   2021 Apr 6, 6:14am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
I finally arrived, in a way. I gave notice at work today, will be done with work in two weeks.

I'm able to retire early because I put it all in the stock market and not in the housing market.


Congrats! But do you have enough to live in Caligulan splendor until you get to 90?
257   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Apr 6, 8:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Lol, no, not Caligulan splendor. But enough to continue our current lifestyle without working and enough on top of that so we should actually continue to get a bit richer each year in retirement. I think of the extra as a buffer against adverse events.

And if needed, I could go back to work. Wife is also getting her teaching credential after many years of considering it, so it's likely she will be working as a teacher. But we don't need to count on it.

We do plan to do months of traveling each year, probably in the summers if she's teaching the rest of the year.
258   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Apr 6, 8:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
I mean this on a monthly cash flow basis, but also with regard to appreciation. The appreciation in the stock market was almost always better than the appreciation in the housing market, even in California.



And I know some of you are thinking "But housing is a leveraged bet." And of course I always reply "Leverage works both ways."

We have no debt at all, and I like it that way.
259   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Apr 6, 9:40am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

My biggest tax liability in 2017 was Obamacare.
It was $8000.
The year I cancelled it when it was legal to do (thanks to Trump) I was going to owe $924/month x12=$11,088
My Obamacare strategy is:
1. Try to keep income below $55,000 (more or less, the law says “400% of poverty level”)
For married, it’s probably double, $110,000 or about.
I couldn’t do #1 because of dividends and interest.
2. Buy Health Savings Account to decrease the Obamacare premium effect.
3. HSA invest in mutual funds: Fidelity is easy for HSA setup.

The problem in California is that they don’t agree with the federal rules of Obamacare, they still require you have it.

I’m aware of the numbers to stay below for single and keeping overall taxes low; in California it’s about $75,000 I believe. For married it’s likely double that.

If I don’t spend my money, I won’t pay much tax at all, but my net worth will grow and I have never had enough fun.
260   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 6, 10:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Wife is also getting her teaching credential after many years of considering it, so it's likely she will be working as a teacher. But we don't need to count on it.


Wait. You are retiring in your 50's and your wife is getting her teaching credentials now? Is she significantly younger? What a nice wife.....honey, you go ahead and retire, I am going to get my teaching credentials.....lucky guy Patrick!
261   RC2006   ignore (2)   2021 Apr 6, 10:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Patrick says
I mean this on a monthly cash flow basis, but also with regard to appreciation. The appreciation in the stock market was almost always better than the appreciation in the housing market, even in California.



And I know some of you are thinking "But housing is a leveraged bet." And of course I always reply "Leverage works both ways."

We have no debt at all, and I like it that way.


The only good house is an affordable house, that doeant make you house poor, and unable to invest. People are buying houses at 50%+ of their income on two person income which is insane. Going to be a lot of bag holders when this shit crashes.
262   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Apr 6, 10:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Bitcoin says
Patrick says
Wife is also getting her teaching credential after many years of considering it, so it's likely she will be working as a teacher. But we don't need to count on it.


Wait. You are retiring in your 50's and your wife is getting her teaching credentials now? Is she significantly younger? What a nice wife.....honey, you go ahead and retire, I am going to get my teaching credentials.....lucky guy Patrick!

Or Patrick is a man and didn't pick some slut. There's a difference in chasing women and having them want you. Not luck, it's skill.
263   Blue   ignore (0)   2021 Apr 6, 11:25am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
3. HSA invest in mutual funds


Be aware that CA is taxing on gains from the year 2020. I'd assume invest in growth funds and never sell like I do, might work.
264   Blue   ignore (0)   2021 Apr 6, 11:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
I finally arrived, in a way.

Congratulations Pat on reaching your liberation.
265   Booger   ignore (7)   2021 Apr 6, 1:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
1. Try to keep income below $55,000 (more or less, the law says “400% of poverty level”)
For married, it’s probably double


$51,040 for a single person and $68,960 for a couple, for 2021
266   zzyzzx   ignore (2)   2021 Apr 7, 4:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Lol, no, not Caligulan splendor.


Then what's the point???

Anyway, at least if the wife gets a teaching job you can get on her luxurious, taxpayer funded health insurance plan! (assuming public school).
267   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Apr 7, 5:02am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

zzyzzx says
Anyway, at least if the wife gets a teaching job you can get on her luxurious, taxpayer funded health insurance plan! (assuming public school).

lol. So true.
268   richwicks   ignore (4)   2021 Apr 7, 5:12am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
I expect the stock market to implode and an asteroid to hit after that for good measure. Just so I don't expect too much and thereby ruin my good luck.


And now you know the real reason I quit my job. Something really fucked up is about to happen, and I rather not have to be dealing with a fuck job while going through it.
269   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Apr 7, 6:01am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The stock market won’t implode for a long time; people are rapacious consumers and will never stop upgrading their iPhones, their cars, their TVs, putting Pelotons in their garage, going on cruises, etc.

I recently met up with a couple friends whom I had not seen since the 1980s.
Disclosure: they have evidently made good dough.

Guy #1: Has a house in Rhode Island for summer, built another in Vero Beach, FL and lives in Boston.
Guy #2: Has a house in Maine, a condo in the Bahamas and a new house in Quintana Ro Mexico.

The point is they were not big consumers back then, but over time they were sucked into the game and instead of cars they buy fucking houses.

I’m convinced everyone will consume at his own limit and stocks will rise forever.
270   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 7, 6:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
The stock market won’t implode for a long time; people are rapacious consumers and will never stop upgrading their iPhones, their cars, their TVs, putting Pelotons in their garage, going on cruises, etc.


Every dip in stocks (which will be labeled a crash) is a buying opportunity. Same is true for Bitcoin as well btw.
271   zzyzzx   ignore (2)   2021 Apr 7, 7:15am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
I’m convinced everyone will consume at his own limit and stocks will rise forever.


Obligatory: CONSUME MASS QUANTITITES


Seriously, whenever I am at WalMart and see all the crap people are buying, I think of this.
272   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Apr 7, 8:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Bitcoin says
hehe, our moderator cant handle my un-personal comments because I hit the nail. So he targets my comments again @Patrick

What is personal about this?

WookieMan says

Or Patrick is a man and didn't pick some slut.

How could that comment possibly be about you dude? I was giving Patrick props for selecting a good wife. WTF are you actually talking about? Dumb men constantly pick wrong/slutty women.

You proceeded to basically say my wife is a slut. I was easy going with you. Any hint of a personal comment towards anyone or spam is getting flagged and is gone.

This is fact. You've shown little to no respect to other users here. It's okay to get into heated exchanges. You insinuated my wife was a slut. I'd say other things, but want this comment to stay up. How about contribute? It's not that difficult.
274   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Apr 7, 8:41am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Bitcoin says
It looks like it really hurts his feelings lol, I am just giving him a compliment!

It was in reference to another personal comment. It goes away again. I'll do this all day. You talk shit about someone's wife it's toast, even if it's not me. Stop talking about users.
275   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Apr 7, 8:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

@Bitcoin

You know that:

1. that's not what you said when it was marked personal
2. it's still personal
276   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 7, 8:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

hihi, I was giving him a compliment, but it clearly shows how sensitive he is around the topic :)
277   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Apr 7, 8:43am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
You proceeded to basically say my wife is a slut. I was easy going with you. Any hint of a personal comment towards anyone or spam is getting flagged and is gone.


@WookieMan is right about this.
278   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 13, 7:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Glad I grabbed some cheap TESLA stock on this recent tech dip....same with NIO which I am still buying heavily.
Tesla shot back up to 740 from a recent local low of 590ish.
279   Bitcoin   ignore (15)   2021 Apr 13, 8:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

okay, so....a neighbor in our high end community bought a house in March this year and put it on the market for 200k more.....if that goes through than fuck....I might change my mind and start saying this is starting to get nuts.
280   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Apr 13, 8:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Bitcoin says
okay, so....a neighbor in our high end community bought a house in March this year and put it on the market for 200k more.....if that goes through than fuck....I might change my mind and start saying this is starting to get nuts.


Houses in the North Bay have appreciated easily 5% within the past few weeks as inventory continues to shrink. Everything from Marin to Wine Country, anything rural or semi-rural is being snapped up at massive premiums.

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