patrick.net

I am afraid the the stock market is in a bubble and could end very badly. But that said, I'm still 75% in because I don't really know.

I don't even care about the housing market anymore.

With super low rates and money printing I dont see an end to the stock market bubble anytime soon. Similar for housing. Plus, all this inflation talk pushes people to buying assets vs holding cash. The trend is your friend until the end....

Patrick says

I don't even care about the housing market anymore.

Patrick not caring about the housing bubble? What's next, the Pope saying there is no God?

HeadSet says

What's next, the Pope saying there is no God?

The current Pope might.

HeadSet says

Patrick says

I don't even care about the housing market anymore.

Patrick not caring about the housing bubble? What's next, the Pope saying there is no God?

I put my position out there: a house's value is determined by what you can rent it for. Rents are honest in a way that mortgages are not, because no bank will loan you money to pay your rent. If you can't rent a house out for enough to cover the mortgage and all other expenses, then the price of the house is objectively too high.

If people want to continue overpaying to make realtors and bankers rich, well, that's just stupid but I can only yell about it for so long.

Eric Holder says

HeadSet says

What's next, the Pope saying there is no God?

The current Pope might.

Does anyone think that he's an atheist

It's inflation. With the Dems unchecked now say hello to much more spending than under Trump who already spent like a drunken sailor. Asset prices will go up. Stocks much more favorable than housing. Crash is possible only when we enter a recession, companies post losses and start layoffs. Not yet.

mell says

It's inflation. With the Dems unchecked now say hello to much more spending than under Trump who already spent like a drunken sailor. Asset prices will go up. Stocks much more favorable than housing. Crash is possible only when we enter a recession, companies post losses and start layoffs. Not yet.

Stocks for companies like Apple with strong China ties will go up, because Biden will do the bidding of China and remove tariffs and any other trade restrictions. US manufacturing will plummet. We will also have a flood of illegals displace low end workers. Won't be much to crash.

Stocks overall are not a bubble because 1. Interest rates are low 2. Consumers are being supported by the government, so they keep consuming.

Exceptions exist, like Tesla.

I recently found out that I have first refusal on a piece of land (now with a house on it) in Martha’s Vineyard.
Evidently when my mother sold it to our neighbor, she put that on the deed, around 1972.

Talking to the present owner (buyers heir) last night, she can’t handle the property taxes anymore.
These places were prefab houses brought over to the island on the ferry on a truck in the 60’s.
Old small places were called “camps”.
So, the little places are sometimes sold, torn down, and a gazillion bucks is spent on the house with the view.
The neighbor gets assessed at $3 million and because he’s 200 feet away, guess what?
Your little prefab house with a view is assessed for a couple of million bucks!
You can’t fight city hall, so cough up the money asshole.
I don’t care what anyone says about real estate; you are buying a tax trap.
How big a trap you are in depends on your place and location.

Sometimes we think we are in a huge bubble, for years. After years go by we realize the assumed bubble was just a blip on the chart.
Maybe we are in an everything bubble, or maybe ultra low interest rates and money printing just leads to asset inflation which can last for decades.

Remember when everyone talked about the Bitcoin bubble in 2017 and compared it to the tulip bubble? Well, it wasnt. Its just a blip on the chart. Now that institutions are buying Bitcoin in the 100's of millions of USD. The alleged "bubble top" of 20k for Bitcoin in 2017 appears to be a cheap price now considering we are approaching 40k per Bitcoin....

Bitcoin reminds me of this

Funny thing is that Enron's accounting was tame compared to actual events that happened after its demise. Oil hit over $120 a BARREL in 2008. Enron's accounting for its positions wasn't that high.

RC2006 says

Bitcoin >

Is digital gold
....and Bitcoin will take market share from gold (currently at valued at 12T USD). Bitcoin will easily be at a 1-2 Trillion market cap soon.

If bitcoin is digital gold, my balls are an oil well. Come drain them and take your profit.

clambo says

The neighbor gets assessed at $3 million and because he’s 200 feet away, guess what?
Your little prefab house with a view is assessed for a couple of million bucks!
You can’t fight city hall, so cough up the money asshole.

"Prop13 is baaaaaaad!"

Zak says

If bitcoin is digital gold

Yes

Zak says

my balls are an oil well. Come drain them and take your profit.

Sorry, wrong forum for that talk. Take it somewhere else.

Bitcoin is digital gold or gold 2.0.

G36 says

Sorry, wrong forum for that talk. Take it somewhere else.

Bitcoin is digital gold or gold 2.0.

Now I see why WookieMan lost it with G36.

I thought G36 had some helpful, insightful comments on his thread about cryptocurrency.

But WookieMan's right, he's a troll. Trolling others' threads with cryptoFanBoyisms.

Maybe Patrick can limit G36 to the posts that he created instead of trolling others'.

@B.A.C.A.H.

rofl. This is what Zak said and what I responded to.

Zak says
my balls are an oil well. Come drain them and take your profit.

We can have a civil debate about investments / assets / bubbles etc. But we dont need to take the discussion below the belt.
If you take one sentence out of context and call me a troll because of it then you are the troll.

hmm, there's nothing below the belt about it. You said that bitcoin IS digital gold. If you can make stupid equivalences like that, then so can I . Literally, my balls ARE an oil well. So they are no longer balls. They don't have the characteristics of balls or the shortcomings of balls that would give you pause about treating them like an oil well. They simply ARE an oil well, so come get your oil. I'm giving you free oil here.

Oh hmm, so balls are NOT oil wells you say, and I'm treating you like an idiot and insulting you by saying they are simply an oil well, when they have smelly and potentially disgusting characteristics to the general population?? Ahh, perhaps I am making an illustrative comment on your rhetoric then??? now we arrive at the explained joke which is no longer funny... sad day..

let me rephrase it then so its not directed at you..

gold as a store of value is to bitcoin
as an oil well as a producer of valuable commodity is to my balls

a very specific market, that if you don't have a technical reason why you are there is a waste of your time and energy (but probably great for me as the producer/seller!)

G36 says

market cap

lol

Don't be the last fool out.

Bitcoin's going to $300k+

GlocknLoad says

Bitcoin's going to $300k+

Market cap? Or per coin? Not that there is a big difference.

@Zak
you might be new to the topic of cryptocurrency. There isnt really a debate about Bitcoin being digital gold or not. Institutions / Investors see it that way....just use your search engine.
My point is, I couldnt care less what some random guy on the web thinks about Bitcoin. All I care about is that we keep the posts civil.
https://www.reuters.com/article/crypto-currencies-jpm/bitcoin-emergence-as-digital-gold-could-lift-price-to-146000-says-jpm-idUSL8N2JG2MM
https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-digital-gold-traditional-currency-5-yrs-billionaire-novogratz-2020-10-1029720375
https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2020/12/04/bitcoin-could-become-the-digital-gold/?sh=42648c6fe788

@onvacation
300k per coin would be crazy good but 100k-200k per digital gold coin (Bitcoin) would already be amazing.
I know some dont understand market cap. Its actually simple. Market price * circulating supply. Just like with stocks.

G36 says

I know some dont understand market cap. Its actually simple. Market price * circulating supply. Just like with stocks.

Stocks represent a share of a companies profit or loss. We wouldn't say the market cap of a game of lotto is all the circulating tickets multiplied by the grand prize. Same with bitcoin.

I try to give you all of these simple examples to help you understand that you are gambling. You'll understand some day.

@onvacation,
its an investment in digital gold and the market cap of any cryptocurrency traded on exchanges is representing the market price times the circulating supply.
One day you will look back and say, dang, should have listened to G36, "Bitcoin under 50k would have been the investment of a life time."

G36 says

circulating supply.

Currency circulates. Bitcoin is a distributed ledger.

I'm hoping you sell and take some profit soon. Until you trade your bits for money the only gains you will have is the ones you pay taxes on. Maybe just sell 30% or so to cushion the inevitable crash?

I'm Curious. Do you have to pay taxes on your unrealized gains? or can you wait until you actually realize gains?

Onvacation says

G36 says

circulating supply.

Bitcoin is a distributed ledger.


@onvacation
Yes! Blockchain is one type of a distributed ledger. Distributed ledgers use independent computers (referred to as nodes) to record, share and synchronize transactions in their respective electronic ledgers (instead of keeping data centralized as in a traditional ledger). Bitcoin is decentralized!

Onvacation says
I'm hoping you sell and take some profit soon.


mhm, not soon. I think in a few month when its trading above 100k I will start taking profits.

Onvacation says
Do you have to pay taxes on your unrealized gains?

My original plan was to only pay long term capital gains which occurs when you buy and then sell or exchange a crypto asset after holding it for a year or longer. I might even hold Bitcoin until it reaches 500k in the next few years. Which would mean I have to pay zero taxes until I sell or trade my precious digital gold coins.

Patrick says

If people want to continue overpaying to make realtors and bankers rich, well, that's just stupid but I can only yell about it for so long.

It’s almost like Bitcoin. It’s only worth what you can buy with it (nothing). But I can only shout about it for so long.

clambo says

The neighbor gets assessed at $3 million and because he’s 200 feet away, guess what?
Your little prefab house with a view is assessed for a couple of million bucks!

So because my grandma squatted on a piece of land in central Manhattan 100 years ago the heirs should never have to pay a step up in basis? That’s prop 13. Insane

ignoreme says

clambo says

The neighbor gets assessed at $3 million and because he’s 200 feet away, guess what?
Your little prefab house with a view is assessed for a couple of million bucks!

So because my grandma squatted on a piece of land in central Manhattan 100 years ago the heirs should never have to pay a step up in basis? That’s prop 13. Insane

Well said.

ignoreme says

It’s almost like Bitcoin. It’s only worth what you can buy with it

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/bitcoin-hits-us-40k-mark-doubling-price-in-less-than-a-month-1.5258104

@ignoreme
you can buy a lot of beer and great food for 40k.

per the article "Bitcoin hits US$40K mark, doubling price in less than a month"

You know, one of the Rothschild's was famous for saying "Buy when there's blood in the streets."

And there is these days. Maybe that's why markets are up.

The last couple weeks were great for those in the market. Like mentioned earlier there is currently no recession on the horizon. Maybe late 2021 or 2022.

mell says

The last couple weeks were great for those in the market. Like mentioned earlier there is currently no recession on the horizon. Maybe late 2021 or 2022.

*****

How can entire industries be destroyed yet we aren’t in a recession? (Theater chains, hospitality, in restaurant dining, cruise and air travel) My ordinary family had $20k earmarked for disneyworld and Costs Rica this year ... both cancelled and spent squat!

We work from home so no gas cost. We don’t eat out, but admittedly do order in often. (That’s a lot of out of work waiters). We saved more this year than the last 10 years combined! But we have no plans to spend that saved money... it’s forever lost from going back in the economy... it’s a nice fat safety net and retirement savings. Simply because we couldn’t spend money and feared spending money. We will go on vacations and travel again, but we won’t dip deep into those savings to do it... that’s ours for experiencing a shitty year. The one good thing to come out of 2020.

I guess it’s all forward looking... but that was the quickest recession and fastest recovery in history!

Onvacation says

I'm Curious. Do you have to pay taxes on your unrealized gains? or can you wait until you actually realize gains?

This was one of my biggest concerns when I got out of Crypto, There was talk about taxing every crypto trade, I only traded once or twice but had friends trading daily, hourly even. could be a huge tax trap later on.

XRP paid off my student loans and bought me a Truck. If I had stayed in for 2 more weeks I would have held $6M... whoops. at that max valuation XRP was worth 3x more than Apple, definitely out of touch, didn't see that coming. With limited supply in BTC, large investors can create artificial demand and hodl the greater fools hostage, as long as its considered legal the price may represent the stupidity of people, infinity.

BoomAndBustCycle says

mell says

The last couple weeks were great for those in the market. Like mentioned earlier there is currently no recession on the horizon. Maybe late 2021 or 2022.

*****

How can entire industries be destroyed yet we aren’t in a recession? (Theater chains, hospitality, in restaurant dining, cruise and air travel) My ordinary family had $20k earmarked for disneyworld and Costs Rica this year ... both cancelled and spent squat!

We work from home so no gas cost. We don’t eat out, but admittedly do order in often. (That’s a lot of out of work waiters). We saved more this year than the last 10 years combined! But we have no plans to spend that saved money... it’s forever lost from going back in the economy... it’s a nice fat safety net and retirement savings. Simply because we couldn’t spend money and feared spending money. We will go on vacations and travel again, but we won’t dip de...

Small businesses have suffered greatly but most of them are not public companies. The big(ger) companies making up Wall Street are doing well at the expense if the smaller businesses. Also tech benefited hugely from the lockdowns and biotech from getting into focus. Overall employment is there if you have the skills and want to work for the man. That's why there's no recession yet.

That's why there's no recession yet.

Also because government employees, welfare takers, government retirees and favored industries did not miss a paycheck.

HeadSet says

That's why there's no recession yet.

Also because government employees, welfare takers, government retirees and favored industries did not miss a paycheck.

That too.

I recon this may be a good investment:

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