patrick.net

@Zak

When do you think the pandemic will end?

@onvacation - its not fear mongering. you are correct in that any mutation that does occur might NOT be a "bad" mutation.

As far as the probablity of mutation.. 100% . In fact, we know of I think at least 8 variations so far.
The probability of "bad" mutation.. this is my basic take:

In the past ~100 years, there have probably been between 1000 or 100,000 different strains of the flu (I have no idea) as a projection, given that we currently have about 27 types:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htm

Of those, 1 strain was the spanish flu, and that killed 120 million+ people.

Feel free to refine these estimated numbers if you think my logic is unsound.

so to me, there is a 1 in 1000 to 1 in 100,000 chance that we have a mutation that turns into something like the spanish flu.

There is probably a substantially greater chance that we get a mutation that will not be blocked by the vaccine.

So far we've had 8 known mutations. So on the high risk side, it's pretty fucking dangerous risk wise.

On the lower risk side, 1/100000, it's still way more beneficial in my estimation if people get vaccinated. 1 in 100,000 chance of a super deadly global catastrophe coming out of this already not too great situation, vs a mostly side effect free vaccine (maybe 1/1,000,000 chance of death)

Again, I have only my own logic generating these numbers from data that i know, and I try to be transparent about how I think about it. If you have better data, I would update my risk beliefs.. But to me the mutation thing looks pretty fucking risky at this point. (Better now that lots are getting vaccinated).

Zak says

So far we've had 8 known mutations. So on the high risk side, it's pretty fucking dangerous risk wise.

With survival rate north of 99% for people under 70? That's a very unconventional definition of "pretty fucking dangerous".

Onvacation says

Zak

When do you think the pandemic will end?

So we can get back to normal.

Stopped at the Service Center today on the FL Turnpike. Half were maskless. Male Whites and Hispanics, no masks. Women, Blacks and Asians, masked up (I did see two Black teen girls with no mask).

We gave each other the "Man Nod" and several obvious NY'ers and tourists were appalled as they walked into the area and saw people without masks. The "Mask wearing is mandatory sign" from months ago is now a small "Florida Department of Health recommends Masks."

Robert Sproul says

Zak says

just says "there might be a conspiracy tho!!!"

Here is one transparent conspiracy that sticks out for me. A conspiracy to get fucking rich.
The COVID-19 vaccines for coronavirus were developed more rapidly than any vaccine in history, using technology that has never been approved before, by companies with extensive histories of criminal fraud. The process has minted a handful of instant billionaires and enriched countless others, no Jonas Salk to be found in this cash grab. Big Pharma CEO’s have acknowledged the Once-in-a-Lifetime nature of this “opportunity”.

Yes, that.

Reeks of corruption, especially when you see Fauci's smirk.

Zak says

covid is actually worse for most people across most demographic categories for most symptoms by a factor of about 40 or greater (death, side effects, etc)

Where did you get that 40 number? Literally everything I see says it's on the order of 3x worse than the flu. For example, an infection fatality rate of 0.3% compared to the normal 0.1% IFR for the flu.

Zak says

- Because even if it is old people filling up hospitals, hospitals still become full and unable to deal with other healthcare issues

Experience shows that this is extremely rare (temporary episodes in Milan and NYC).

In fact, lots of hospitals went bankrupt because they were emptied by the fear-mongering about the CCP Virus. (I kind of like Epoch News' term CCP Virus.)

Zak says

if there do become situations where dead people are overwhelming the burial system, other diseases can take hold

Not happening. It's been over a year. How long do we have to wait for this particular event?

Zak says

an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure

But a few ml of foreign mRNA not approved by the FDA might really fuck you up for life.

Zak says

I know lots of doctors, and not one of them is the pharma shill that people seem to want to make them out to be

I think the majority of doctors are ethical, but I have come across some clearly pushing a profitable drug.

Zak says

the vaccine had the same spike protein generation as the virus. If the "experimental biological agent" is going to cause you long term problems, then they are the same problems the virus would cause you because it is the same protein. But , the virus will be worse, because it will keep pumping out those proteins in greater quantity and at an increasing rate without giving your immune system a chance to respond.

I'm not convinced that a mass injection of foreign mRNA is identical to virus replication.

ThreeBays says

The opposite of everything you wrote is true, so it's not likely the government is doing "nefarious stuff", but the ones who say the stuff you repeat probably are nefarious.

If we return to a non-Weathermen Media Era, it's going to be astounding at how many Mask Karens and Soys claim they never believed in the vaccine or the CCP Virus scam.

Zak says

Because covid is actually worse for most people across most demographic categories for most symptoms by a factor of about 40 or greater (death, side effects, etc)

That's a lie. In fact it is far less serious for all demographics because those numbers are made up by the senseless arithmeric that if one dies within 28 days, no matter of what, and has tested positive for covid within that time frame, then one counts as covid death. If you applied the same senseless arithmetic to hsv1, then herpes simplex 1 would be the most dangerous virus in the world. If you applied the same senseless arithmetic to the flu, the flu would be far more serious compared to covid. Especially considering how many more people covid has infected, of which many are asymptomatic.

I think what it comes down to is that the media and most of government (sadly, including corrupt "public health" officials) have squandered their credibility over the last four years with continuous and flagrant lies intended to remove Trump from office.

Why should anyone believe the media or government officials anymore? They have been lying to our faces for four feaking years! Russia? What bullshit.

They have an agenda:

- to prevent democracy by any means necessary lest an unapproved candidate get elected again
- to keep the half trillion dollars of Chinese imports flowing in every year no matter what it does to America
- to keep millions of illegal aliens coming over the border to drive down wages and have Democrat children
- to ruthlessly suppress all objection to the above through firings, BLM terrorism, and simple censorship on social media tightly linked to the NSA/CIA etc

So obviously one should be suspect of a "vaccine" which creates 50 new billionaires, is not approved by the FDA, and which Fauci keeps giggling about.

How many people have died of covid? How many people have died from the vaccine? I am perfectly happy for you to link me numbers and prove me wrong. Show me the senseless arithmetic??

If your only statement is "you lie" then you just sound like an ass. Because even in your own statement, I'm not lying, i'm using arithmetic with number sources you disagree with.

So it's just fucking rude and simple minded to say "you lie".

Hey, 2+2 = 4

YOU LIE.

ok asshat, go away.

ThreeBays says

The opposite of everything you wrote is true, so it's not likely the government is doing "nefarious stuff", but the ones who say the stuff you repeat probably are nefarious.

Do you personally know anyone healthy that has died from Covid? Honest question. Like you know them and could give them a phone call and they'd be like hey what's up Bob Doe. I don't know anyone that's died and my bullpen is 1k+ deep between the wife and I.

All the 2nd hand sources I've heard of were almost dead already. Sad, but every single one was close to death anyway. Yet we shut down the country. Whatever. Don't think I can change your mind.

Patrick says

Zak says

the vaccine had the same spike protein generation as the virus. If the "experimental biological agent" is going to cause you long term problems, then they are the same problems the virus would cause you because it is the same protein. But , the virus will be worse, because it will keep pumping out those proteins in greater quantity and at an increasing rate without giving your immune system a chance to respond.

I'm not convinced that a mass injection of foreign mRNA is identical to virus replication.

While it is true that the virus produces potentially harmful s-proteins during infection, it's actually a half-truth at best. The virus will produce spike proteins localized whereas the agent will produce spike proteins everywhere in the body when injected into highly vascularized areas such as the arm. It's moreso a lie that ADE will cause more serious outcomes in those "vaccinated". It happened in many of the lab animals.

WookieMan says

Do you personally know anyone healthy that has died from Covid? Honest question.

I still personally know no one at all who died from the CCP Virus, or who even got seriously ill.

Not a single person. The closest it gets it the father of a French friend. Her father was 90 and in a nursing home. His life expectancy was not good in any case.

Zak says

@mell - Your mom's case is the thing that makes me so irritated with regards to the vaccine. All the evidence I've seen says you are absolutely correct with respect to immunity and not needing the vaccine if you were infected. The lack of education on how immunity works keeps spreading mistakes like this that only lead people to question if this whole thing is a big conspiracy. We have these stupid "keep wearing your mask after vaccination" requirements. The lack of consistency and education on just what the hell is going on basically leads everyone to question everything all the time, and just take a deferential attitude to some other expert who must be right.

There IS a basic set of facts and logic and knowledge about medicine and biology that applies here. It's pretty much criminal the way Fauci has engaged when questioned if for instance there are mutated strains of covid that are not blocked by the vaccine. The answer is no. There could be a mutation, but there is not a mu...

So why are MDs and politicians peddling this lie and why would you believe anything else they say?

@patrick I'm not convinced that a mass injection of foreign mRNA is identical to virus replication.

It's not. It's definitely NOT identical. It's substantially less bad. the mRNA sequence encodes a SUBSET of the total protein mRNA sequences that the virus would generate. This is how they get the sequence to generate the spike protein without being the actual virus. The beauty of this, is that the layperson can understand it.

There is a great simple analogy too. If you want to train soldiers(your immune system) to fight a war, you train them to shoot at targets. But instead of putting in real soldiers that shoot back, you put up an outline. mRNA vaccine is just the description to produce that outline instead of the full virus that produces a real soldier shooting back.

It seems like everyone is worried that someone is sneaking in poison gas recipes along with the instructions to produce the outline. And then they say, "oh i'd rather have soldiers shooting at me, rather than some outlines, because there might be secret poison gas"

Zak says

How many people have died of covid? How many people have died from the vaccine? I am perfectly happy for you to link me numbers and prove me wrong. Show me the senseless arithmetic??

All righty then.

I just don't see a positive outcome from replacing healthy immune system with masks and a "Vaccine" regimen.

Currently you need to renew your vaccine card every six months. This biologic agent is programmable so every time the CCP releases a new variant we can quickly produce a new biological agent that will lessen the effects of the latest cold.

Masks will still be mandatory unless you are out in the wilderness with someone from your own currently vaccinated family or if you go see the Carters in Georgia.

Zak says

How many people have died of covid? How many people have died from the vaccine? I am perfectly happy for you to link me numbers and prove me wrong. Show me the senseless arithmetic??

If your only statement is "you lie" then you just sound like an ass. Because even in your own statement, I'm not lying, i'm using arithmetic with number sources you disagree with.

So it's just fucking rude and simple minded to say "you lie".

Hey, 2+2 = 4

YOU LIE.

ok asshat, go away.

You don't know how many people died of covid, just how many died with covid. You only know how many got infected, and that's anywhere between 40%-81% of the population (that's a fact from seroprevalence). Compare that to flu deaths and the flu is more dangerous since it infects far less, between 5%-20%. Ok, depending on which numbers you choose in those ranges, covid may be roughly equally serious than the flu, if you believe the death counts from senseless arithmetic.

Zak says

@patrick I'm not convinced that a mass injection of foreign mRNA is identical to virus replication.

It's not. It's definitely NOT identical. It's substantially less bad. the mRNA sequence encodes a SUBSET of the total protein mRNA sequences that the virus would generate. This is how they get the sequence to generate the spike protein without being the actual virus. The beauty of this, is that the layperson can understand it.

There is a great simple analogy too. If you want to train soldiers(your immune system) to fight a war, you train them to shoot at targets. But instead of putting in real soldiers that shoot back, you put up an outline. mRNA vaccine is just the description to produce that outline instead of the full virus that produces a real soldier shooting back.

It seems like everyone is worried that someone is sneaking in poison gas recipes along with the instructions to produce the outline. And then they say, "oh i'd rather have soldiers shooting at me, rat...

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.640093/full

ADE is a real problem besides the soldiers silhouettes being deployed all over the body by the mrna and the body shooting at them everywhere, even in fragile environments prone to clotting.

@patrick

But a few ml of foreign mRNA not approved by the FDA might really fuck you up for life.

You are aware that covid is not FDA approved, right? If you get covid, you are getting that same little section of DNA that encodes the spike protein, but you are getting a bunch of other shit on top of it.. In fact, a whole self-replicating extra set of proteins.

mell says

You don't know how many people died of covid, just how many died with covid.

Not even that. Just how many had positive results from the very unreliable PCR test.

This is what Reiner Fuellmich is suing about.

@patrick
Not happening. It's been over a year. How long do we have to wait for this particular event?

you are correct. It was pointed out that I might be fear mongering. Does it seem like I am? I tried to lay out my approximations of what I think might be low probability vs high probability based on history. Did it seem off?

If this low probability event did come to pass, would you agree with my statement?
Do you at least agree that this would be one possible risk we can at least label and quantify in the event that the mutation did happen?

Again, not trying to oversell it or fear monger. I'm trying to reasonably look at risk.
https://www.livescience.com/worst-epidemics-and-pandemics-in-history.html

This counts 20 in a bit over 2000 years in the areas we can record history for.

Would it be fair to assume that with international travel this might be higher?

Zak says

If you get covid, you are getting that same little section of DNA that encodes the spike protein, but you are getting a bunch of other shit on top of it.

And quite a different method of propagation compared to being injected with a mass dose of spike protein mRNA, right?

What it comes down to, again, is that I do not trust Fauci, or the CDC, or the Biden administration, or the newly rich "vaccine" companies to do the right thing

I think they are playing fast and loose with the lives massive numbers of people because they have huge financial and political incentives to do that.

Zak says

@patrick
Not happening. It's been over a year. How long do we have to wait for this particular event?

you are correct. It was pointed out that I might be fear mongering. Does it seem like I am? I tried to lay out my approximations of what I think might be low probability vs high probability based on history. Did it seem off?

If this low probability event did come to pass, would you agree with my statement?
Do you at least agree that this would be one possible risk we can at least label and quantify in the event that the mutation did happen?

Again, not trying to oversell it or fear monger. I'm trying to reasonably look at risk.
https://www.livescience.com/worst-epidemics-and-pandemics-in-history.html

This counts 20 in a bit over 2000 years in the areas we can record history for.

Would it be fair to assume that with intern...

The number of reported deaths and serious adverse events from covid vaccines within months in vaers are higher than all other common vaccines for 15 years. It is happening. The "vaccine" may still be a good proposition for a small group of people but not for most. In fact it's a crime exposing adolescents and kids with close to zero risk of serious covid illness to the much higher risk of serous side effects from the agent.

Patrick says

Zak says

If you get covid, you are getting that same little section of DNA that encodes the spike protein, but you are getting a bunch of other shit on top of it.

And quite a different method of propagation compared to being injected with a mass dose of spike protein mRNA, right?

What it comes down to, again, is that I do not trust Fauci, or the CDC, or the Biden administration, or the newly rich "vaccine" companies to do the right thing

I think they are playing fast and loose with the lives massive numbers of people because they have huge financial and political incentives to do that.

There doesn't have to be a mass die off event, the number of serious side effects already doesn't justify the risk for all young, adults and healthy. I don't think prognostications of worst case scenarios (usually the extremes never happen) like those are not good for the cause of informing people of the real risks of these agents. Just show them the math and they can make their own decision. The math is clear for 80%, it's not worth the risk.

Patrick says

Experience shows that this is extremely rare (temporary episodes in Milan and NYC).

In fact, lots of hospitals went bankrupt because they were emptied by the fear-mongering about the CCP Virus. (I kind of like Epoch News' term CCP Virus.)

So here's thing thing. It's kind of hard to say "yeah this is already happening a little bit with the low current death rate of covid" but then say the risk is low if a mutation with a higher death rate crops up.

I 100% agree with your point about overreacting, and hospitals going bankrupt, and that people have been acting out of fear and making some poor public policy decisions. But that's also why I try to discuss these things with a level head and give an honest risk assessment. Good valid points like yours about closing and bankrupting hospitals being bad policy shouldn't cancel out other good valid points about reducing the overall number of transmissions and opportunities for mutation through a widely deployed vaccination.

I appreciate your sincere arguments @Zak even if I disagree.

Call me paranoid.

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/18/covid-infection-fatality-rates-sex-and-age-15163

Patrick says

I appreciate your sincere arguments @Zak even if I disagree.

Call me paranoid.

I appreciate disagreement. I actually like when people say "hey have you considered this". If everyone just agreed on everything, you wouldn't get a well rounded viewpoint on situations that really need a lot of viewpoints to be considered. In addition to saying I respect people's right to not get the vaccine, I know for a fact some people should NOT get it, and it would be dangerous if they did (various allergies, immunosuppresed, etc). (One of the reasons I always think it should be an individual choice with education, instead of some kind of mandate).

Zak says

So here's thing thing. It's kind of hard to say "yeah this is already happening a little bit with the low current death rate of covid" but then say the risk is low if a mutation with a higher death rate crops up.

That's also a common lie. If you have had a natural covid infection you are protected against most if not all variants, mutants, call em what you will, to a high enough degree that you won't get seriously ill. That's called t/b cell immunity. The mrna/dna vaccines that only build on the antibody response fade quickly and provide no protection for variants that alter their protein(s) enough to evade or render the ABs useless. You will most certainly lose the herd immunity race (plus lots of side effects from the agents) against the corona viruses without a high degree of natural immunity from real infections among the low risk groups, that's why we have never had a vaccine for a CV. A vaccine's main purpose is to protect the vulnerable, not to add to long term herd immunity, which doesn't work for many viruses such as the flu virus. In fact antibody mediated vaccination works better with bacteria, that's why the tetanus vaccine is so successful. For viruses acquired t/b cell immunity from exposure is vastly superior.

mell says

In fact it's a crime exposing adolescents and kids with close to zero risk of serious covid illness to the much higher risk of serous side effects from the agent.

Hmm, so what is the death rate for people age 18-24 from covid vs from the vaccine? I'll wait. This should be a 2 second google search if you are correct.

ThreeBays says

Covid increases your risk of death by...
33% for age 30-39
35% for age 40-49
60% for age 50-65

You must not have much of a point if you stoop to this. If the risk of death for someone in a given year is .00003%, and some factor increases the risk to .00004%, that is a "33% increase." The reality of risk going from next to nothing to another next to nothing is not negated because you play a statistical trick. Percent increase is almost always a propaganda tool to hide small numbers.

Even Lauren Job’s 'The Atlantic' is acknowledging just how much liberals have come to love their cozy authoritarianism.
“….liberals who aren’t quite ready to let go of pandemic restrictions. For this subset, diligence against COVID-19 remains an expression of political identity—even when that means overestimating the disease’s risks or setting limits far more strict than what public-health guidelines permit.”
“For many progressives, extreme vigilance was in part about opposing Donald Trump. Some of this reaction was born of deeply felt frustration with how he handled the pandemic. It could also be knee-jerk. “If he said, ‘Keep schools open,’ then, well, we’re going to do everything in our power to keep schools closed,” Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at UC San Francisco, told me.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/05/liberals-covid-19-science-denial-lockdown/618780/

This pol shows how frightened the Left was by the disinformation they received from their pandering media. They actually thought if you got this "nightmare disease" you had a 50% chance of hospitalization.
“But Democrats got it wrong again when it came to rates of hospitalization. The actual rate is 1-5% but 41% of Democrats put the hospitalization rate at 50+ percent, which is way off. Meanwhile, Republicans were 2 1/2 times as likely to give the correct answer.”
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2021/03/18/survey-republicans-underestimate-covid-risks-democrats-overestimate-n380956

Onvacation says

@Zak

When do you think the pandemic will end?

I actually think we are getting pretty close to only having a low background level of cases. I think UCSD reported zero new cases in the hospital today. And for sure the hospitals aren't filling up with covid vaccine symptom cases despite 100 million people just getting jabbed, so ... ya know.. there is that. I think by July it will be background spreading around the unvaccinated.

To me, we can go the way of polio and kill this thing off, or we can have an irritating and slightly more deadly flu that ends up lingering in the background for decades.. perhaps mutating and slowly nullifying vaccine effectiveness.

Robert Sproul says

diligence against COVID-19 remains an expression of political identity—even when that means overestimating the disease’s risks or setting limits far more strict than what public-health guidelines permit

I agree with this statement. There has been an abuse of authority with regards to covid. The evidence I've seen nonetheless shows the vaccine is relatively safe, while more dangerous than normal vaccines, but less dangerous than covid itself by a large margin. I would vehemently oppose that we mandate it, but I would highly recommend we educate and encourage people to get it.