patrick.net

So how come this crypto shit is falling in unison with stonks, spooked by inflation? Wasn't it supposed to be a hedge against exactly this kind of crap?

Onvacation says

Argue against his ideas instead of attacking him personally.

That's absolutely no fun.

FuckCCP89 says

So how come this crypto shit is falling in unison with stonks, spooked by inflation? Wasn't it supposed to be a hedge against exactly this kind of crap?

The current cryptos are entirely based on speculation, just as stocks are.

I don't know about all cryptos, but with Bitcoin in particular, it's unworkable as a way to pay for goods and services. Basically, if you were buying a car, or a house, or some other large purchase that would take around 20 minutes or more to do the transaction, it MIGHT be useful for that.

But nothing else. It's a distributed database, and it's SLOW, so when you move money from one wallet to another, it's both a lengthy, and costly process.

richwicks says

The current cryptos are entirely based on speculation, just as stocks are.

Well, stocks have a kind of natural floor to them. Stocks are in theory shares in an income-producing company. If that income is 10% or higher (a p/e ratio of 10 or lower), rational people will "stock up" on that stock to get that income, assuming they believe the returns will continue at a similar rate.

But yes, on the other side, stocks can be bid far beyond any justification based on the income they produce. That part is speculation.

No way.....Crypto is correcting and all the haters found their cheerleader gear to celebrate. Lol. It just never fails. The entire way up you hear nothing but when it corrects they are all awake :)

Most of my stocks are value stocks that pay dividends. They all got hit too recently. But I still feel good about them long-term.

What happened to the bitcoin cheerleader that was here a few months ago? Especially now that it's off 50% from its Nov 2021 high. If and when he comes back, he'll tell us he sold at the peak.
Bitcoin says

Yeah, Agree....its best to put cash to work by investing it into stocks, RE and Bitcoin.

My friend Jerry told me that everytime he puts his cash to work, it gets fired.

richwicks says

But nothing else. It's a distributed database, and it's SLOW, so when you move money from one wallet to another, it's both a lengthy, and costly process

And that is all it is, a distributed database. Some HODL'ers think it will one day be THE currency and the early adopters will be filthy rich.

richwicks says

I don't know about all cryptos, but with Bitcoin in particular, it's unworkable as a way to pay for goods and services.

This shows me you don't know anything about ALL cryptos including bitcorn.

clambo says

If stocks are speculative, why am I swimming in dividends?

Don’t buy stocks by all means, they’re just a scam.

The megabucks I made with AAPL is just an illusion and they are going out of business soon.

I should quickly take my profits and wisely invest in BTC.

There's no connection to price and earnings.

And with regard to Apple and their customers - you're basically depending on a segment of society to spend over $1000 and a $100 phone, and spend $200 on a $25 head piece.

I'm an engineer, and I go between "these poor people just don't know what they are doing" to "these stupid assholes deserve to be ripped off".

Tesla has a market cap that is higher than ALL the car manufactures of the United States. It has lower range, it's impossible to work on by a general mechanic, it's untested in the long term, and it doesn't in ANY WAY reduce usage of fossil fuels.

My worst problem is that I 1) will recognize a scam very early on and 2) have been programmed by my fucking parents not to engage in scams. It's immoral.

Tesla is a scam, Apple is a scam on its consumers, Elizabeth Holmes was a scam (obvious one with her fake deep voice), Bitcoin is a scam because it's untradeable, global warming is a scam, Solyndra was a scam, Facebook is a scam, Rumble is a new scam - but a scam. It's not to say you can't make money on these things, I'm saying that the only way you make money is a Ponzi scheme, get a greater fool into it, that's it.

I'd be better off if I was more of a fool. I over-estimate the intelligence and discernment of people pretty consistently. Either people are stupid, or they are unethical and I don't want to be part of either group.

richwicks says

Bitcoin is a scam because it's untradeable

FJB says

richwicks says

I don't know about all cryptos, but with Bitcoin in particular, it's unworkable as a way to pay for goods and services.

This shows me you don't know anything about ALL cryptos including bitcorn.

https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf

@richwicks in essence what you said would be equivalent to saying TCP/IP has no real value. It just moves packets around, you can't make money off of it, it's a scam - back in the day.

FJB says

richwicks says

I don't know about all cryptos, but with Bitcoin in particular, it's unworkable as a way to pay for goods and services.

This shows me you don't know anything about ALL cryptos including bitcorn.

Oh my fucking god.

You have NEVER moved a bitcoin from one wallet to another or attempted to have you?

It takes minutes sometimes hours, sometimes DAYS.

Buy groceries with that.

I have a few bitcoins somewhere in the mound of HDDs I have. It's not even worth my time to find them. Even if I had them at my immediate disposal, I know it's a scam, I'm just taking advantage of some poor dope buying into it. This will NEVER be a workable currency.

When a system comes out that allows you to move the token (and it's a token) from one wallet to another within < 1 second, wake me up. THAT is a solution. That's a workable currency.

All Bitcoin is, is a massively distributed database, and it's very fucking slow. The hope of all this bullshit is that eventually, a massively distributed database can be made to work in real time. Now if you can DO THAT - that's worth some fucking money. Not just passing around tokens, but passing around anything. That's a billion dollar solution, and the idea has been around for at least 2 decades, and there may be no solution.

richwicks says

You have NEVER moved a bitcoin from one wallet to another or attempted to have you?

Of course I have.

FJB says

@richwicks in essence what you said would be equivalent to saying TCP/IP has no real value. It just moves packets around, you can't make money off of it, it's a scam - back in the day.

richwicks says

The hope of all this bullshit is that eventually, a massively distributed database can be made to work in real time. Now if you can DO THAT - that's worth some fucking money

Again, read the fucking paper I linked above. Clearly you haven't heard of the lightning network or can't fathom the idea that LAYERS are being added to this tech, just like Amazon and Google are layers on TCP/IP. People can poo poo most of the alt coins all they want and I'll be right there in agreement with them but people who spout ignorant nonsense about bitcorn don't know shit about shit.

Maybe you should stick to posting about things you understand like charging stations.

FJB says

richwicks says

You have NEVER moved a bitcoin from one wallet to another or attempted to have you?

Of course I have.

How long did it take, and what was the cost, and what year?

You might be out of date.

FJB says

richwicks says

The hope of all this bullshit is that eventually, a massively distributed database can be made to work in real time. Now if you can DO THAT - that's worth some fucking money

Again, read the fucking paper I linked above. Clearly you haven't heard of the lightning network or can't fathom the idea that LAYERS are being added to this tech, just like Amazon and Google are layers on TCP/IP. People can poo poo most of the alt coins all they want and I'll be right there in agreement with them but people who spout ignorant nonsense about bitcorn don't know shit about shit.

Central banks created WWII and WWI - EVEN if the technology is possible (and it's not to my knowledge), it won't be allowed.

That's why we're all locked down because we have a "pandemic" of which we have an average survivability rate of 99.5%.

My problem is I recognize a scam FAR too early to participate in it.

A fast distributed database, that's got far reaching implications. You don't even have to have gains in a currency, just stability in buying power.

richwicks says

How long did it take, and what was the cost, and what year?

You might be out of date.

Quit evading, read the lightning network paper that describes a solution that addresses your 'takes too long', type of concern among others and reply after that. It's already a working solution that you were completely unaware of because you don't know shit about shit.

Then, try to shoot that down and don't keep evading like you did several months ago when I corrected some deep deep misconceptions you have about biology. You just disappeared. I assume you will again or will just obfuscate in your reply like you did above.

As for other folks on here that don't like bitcorn. I get it. You're 1-2 decades older than rickwicks and myself and I get it. You don't want to learn new tricks and don't have to most likely. Fair enough.

Richwicks is far too young to be yelling at kids to get off of his lawn. His misinformation might persuade some younger folks to make poor decisions. Like I did about a decade ago at work when I mentioned I was considering buying some bitcorn to my fellow scientists and engineers.

Moral of the story: Don't take investment advice from scientists and engineers

richwicks says

it won't be allowed.

Bullshit. Congress criters are buying in. The ones running for office (both left and right) are behind it. Pension funds, hedge funds and banks are buying in. The loudmouth anti-bitcoin names of the past like Ray Dalio and buying in AND were doing so while spreading FUD.

There are countless companies being spun up to address this new market. Silicon Valley can't hold onto their engineers for these new job roles. One country made it a currency last year (El Salvador) and I'm going to bet at least 2 more do it this year.

Some countries are allowing spot market ETFs already (we allowed a futures ETF last year and spot will happen b/c we aren't N. Korea).

Beyond that, aside from BTC in general countries are spinning up their own block chains to trade with each other outside of the SWIFT system. If we don't embrace bitcorn we are fucked when the dollar dies. If we do all fiats will collapse into the dollar (and maybe the Yen or whatever China calls their CBDC) and the dollar will be the main fiat people trade in and out of - keeping it around for a while longer.

The "won't allow" trope is 5 year old FUD! Where the fuck have you been?!

FJB says

FJB says

@richwicks in essence what you said would be equivalent to saying TCP/IP has no real value. It just moves packets around, you can't make money off of it, it's a scam - back in the day.

Don't strawman me. You know you are engaging in a logical fallacy, but you do it anyhow.

The problem with a distributed database is that you need to have all machines on at all times, you need to have timely connections to them, and you have to have fast indexing to access them.

Even with bit-torrent, it takes 30 seconds or so before the connection(s) are made. Once it gets going, provided with enough peers, you hit saturation of bandwidth. These are minimal transactions, so it's 30 seconds just to ESTABLISH a connection, and then you're on a priority list.

Distributed databases are great for maximum bandwidth at the cost of enormous latency. For the tokens, you want minimal bandwidth and low latency.

The current patches are centralization - the EXACT OPPOSITE of what these crypto currencies were meant to do away with.

Let me explain how this works - say you're looking for a 4K block of text of a file that has this md5sum:

0af8e52a6941bf0035eb6b54f8b56449

There are 150 peers that have the main file that has this md5sum:

97751050ca4fd56a3cc437523bcd47ef

Your computer will connect to all 150 peers in parallel to find that 4K block you're looking for.

Now scale that up to 250 million instead of 150 peers. That's why it's slow. I can see this happen now. A new file is published, EVERYBODY wants to get it AT THAT MOMENT, and your computer is stuck trying to find new parts. So even though the entire file is available on the network, your computer is not able to find it. After 8 hours, sure, you have the file, and have seeded it out 20 times, but you've used 1/2 the bandwidth just checking "do YOU have this piece yet?"

It's an interesting problem. Anyhow that's the problem all cryptos (currently in my knowledge) have. You're trying to find a tiny thing, in a sea of machines. I have some ideas of how this can mitigated, but they all involve centralization.

READ!

THE!

FUCKING!

PAPER!

Or go watch a youtube video sheesh.

richwicks says

Don't strawman me. You know you are engaging in a logical fallacy, but you do it anyhow.

strawman my ass!

(he's not going to read the paper; I rest my case)

Bitcoin is not new and it is one of the most widely held financial assets in the world. Between Coinbase and E-Toro (just 2 firms) they have over 90 million clients. There are a plethora of other firms trading crypto currencies all over the world probably with hundreds of millions of other clients. There's over 19k different crypto currencies.

These clients tend to be active traders with about $50 billion in value of Bitcoin traded per day. With a capitalization rate of about $670 billion for Bitcoin, that's over 8% of the entire Bitcoin universe traded every day.

The money made by these exchanges is enormous.

The people investing in Bitcoin are generally not sophisticated investors, with most accounts being only a few hundred dollars.

It is an item for shear speculation.

FJB says

richwicks says

I don't know about all cryptos, but with Bitcoin in particular, it's unworkable as a way to pay for goods and services.

This shows me you don't know anything about ALL cryptos including bitcorn.

Are you saying crypto IS good for paying for goods and services?

FJB says

people who spout ignorant nonsense about bitcorn don't know shit about shit.

OH, you're talking about poop! If you chew the corn more thoroughly the bits won't be recognizable.

FJB says

strawman my ass!

Is that where the bitcorn comes from?

Onvacation says

Are you saying crypto IS good for paying for goods and services?

Indeed ol' chap!

Onvacation says

OH, you're talking about poop! If you chew the corn more thoroughly the bits won't be recognizable.

Then I lose the tracer effect.

FJB says

Onvacation says

Are you saying crypto IS good for paying for goods and services?

Indeed ol' chap!

So, you sell some crypto for fiat and then you can make a purchase. How is that better than just using fiat?

Why is crypto valued in fiat?

FJB says

READ!

THE!

FUCKING!

PAPER!

Or go watch a youtube video sheesh.

Oh man. There's nothing wrong with that analysis. It's not even mine.

It's just another classic Ponzi scheme promising to be a new monetary system that has never been shown the ability to actually work.

So sick of people pumping this.

Misc says

Bitcoin is not new and it is one of the most widely held financial assets in the world. Between Coinbase and E-Toro (just 2 firms) they have over 90 million clients. There are a plethora of other firms trading crypto currencies all over the world probably with hundreds of millions of other clients. There's over 19k different crypto currencies.

Bitcoin is essentially like an extreme version of a tech stock. Its somewhat tamed by wall street and big investor money nowadays.

The cycle keeps repeating itself over and over again:

Masses/Media proclaim Bitcoin dead > Big money buys in and pumps it up over time > the masses/media flood back in and hype it up > Big Money sells into the hype and dumps the big bags (blow off top) > the masses run for the hills and sell > Capitulation > cycle starts over.

Keep in mind you can long or short crypto on high leverage which just makes the run ups and downs more extreme.

BTW., Capitulation events are THE best buying opportunity.

FJB says

Bullshit. Congress criters are buying in. The ones running for office (both left and right) are behind it. Pension funds, hedge funds and banks are buying in. The loudmouth anti-bitcoin names of the past like Ray Dalio and buying in AND were doing so while spreading FUD.

There are countless companies being spun up to address this new market. Silicon Valley can't hold onto their engineers for these new job roles. One country made it a currency last year (El Salvador) and I'm going to bet at least 2 more do it this year.

Some countries are allowing spot market ETFs already (we allowed a futures ETF last year and spot will happen b/c we aren't N. Korea).

100% true. Bitcoin is unstoppable.
But it has been declared dead for over 5000 times within the last decade. You just got to understand how the game works.....buy more when the fear is everywhere and the faith has been lost. Sell when the media covers the all time highs and people who have no idea about crypto start buying it.

You can kind of see in what stage of the cycle we are in by reading Patnet.
The Bitcoin haters on this website always come out and cheer when Bitcoin is correcting hard. That's your buy signal.
The Bitcoin haters on this website are silent during all time highs when the media hypes it up. Sell signal.

If have seen it many times now :)

Onvacation says

So, you sell some crypto for fiat and then you can make a purchase. How is that better than just using fiat?

Why is crypto valued in fiat?

Well sure but it's mostly about paying taxes. The US is what, 6% of the population? People in other countries may use it more like a currency (see: El Salvador) but I doubt that happens here.

In the US is defined as a asset like gold or real estate so cyrptoCURRENCY is sort of a misnomer it should be called cyrptoASSET. The alt coins are more like a currency though and not assets. They are essentially securities.

It's better than fiat because it's deflationary vs. the dollar over its existence. In fact, the price could halve from here again it it would still be the best performing asset over the past decade hands down.

richwicks says

It's just another classic Ponzi scheme promising to be a new monetary system that has never been shown the ability to actually work.

So sick of people pumping this.

I'm sick of ignorant people making BS statements about shit they don't understand. In particular people like you who claim to have no problem about being wrong because you learn something. Reality is you just weave and dodge. I showed you the lightning network white paper which proves you're wrong about the speed and utility of bitcoin and you never addressed it.

You might say you THINK it's a ponzi and that would be okay. You'd still be wrong but that's just an opinion. OR, you could make a statement like @misc did above. I wouldn't argue with anything they said in particular about it being a highly speculative asset used primarily by unsophisticated investors.

FJB says

richwicks says

It's just another classic Ponzi scheme promising to be a new monetary system that has never been shown the ability to actually work.

So sick of people pumping this.

I'm sick of ignorant people making BS statements about shit they don't understand.

You're just pumping this thing.

It's a 10% fee currently to move from one wallet to another, if you want to do it under and hour.

My neighbor uses it to transfer money to a gambling account.

You're free to say whatever you like, but man, it's not ever going to be a fucking currency. Transaction and maintenance costs are tremendous and it can go to 50% in a week, as we just saw - some currency.

Hope you do well in your investment, but it's just another damned Tulip and I get sick of people arguing about this stupidity.

FJB says

I'm sick of ignorant people making BS statements about shit they don't understand.

In layman's terms, how do you think the open source blockchain works?

Just as a mathematician wouldn't play the lotto, except for fun, a software engineer wouldn't dabble in crypto, except maybe to unscrupulously dupe some HODLer.

It's a Ponzi scheme that requires new money for old money to cash out. Not only that, like any Ponzi scheme it requires new money just to sustain it. Somebody has to pay for the miner's electricity, hardware, rent, utilities, food, hookers and blow.