patrick.net

porkchopexpress says

We’ve looked at other states and cities but they fall short for one reason or another…mostly schools and their lack of solid music programs. My wife won’t live in really cold or snowy areas, so we’re limited to below the 37th latitude, which I also prefer.

Ft Worth, TX; San Antonio, TX
Not sure about music schools but everything else is there and house prices are reasonable. You can hire a private music teacher for 800K you save on house.

Quick Zillow check shows that Nashville is a lot cheaper than, say, Bay Area. 1.4mil buys a lot of house. Is it a hard number? I'd think that you may be able to lower it, perhaps a lot, without sacrificing your current living conditions. Or is it not so?

GreaterNYCDude says

The further outside a metro area you get, the better the pricing... if you go 1 hr or even 2 hrs outside of the city I'd be willing to bet you can find a nice place for well under a million.
Just curious, why Nashville specifically?

Agreed but we don’t want rural. We like action.

Why Nashville? See my post above.

Bd6r says

porkchopexpress says

We’ve looked at other states and cities but they fall short for one reason or another…mostly schools and their lack of solid music programs. My wife won’t live in really cold or snowy areas, so we’re limited to below the 37th latitude, which I also prefer.

Ft Worth, TX; San Antonio, TX
Not sure about music schools but everything else is there and house prices are reasonable. You can hire a private music teacher for 800K you save on house.

It’s more about high schools with really strong music programs so they can plug into the scene really well. They do orchestra, marching band, jazz band, etc.

mostly reader says

Quick Zillow check shows that Nashville is a lot cheaper than, say, Bay Area. 1.4mil buys a lot of house. Is it a hard number? I'd think that you may be able to lower it, perhaps a lot, without sacrificing your current living conditions. Or is it not so?

Look at Franklin and Brentwood, specifically houses zoned to Ravenwood HS or Brentwood HS.

Everyone is bidding up homes like crazy. One is listed for $1.35M and has been bid up to $1.6M just in the first weekend. It’s nuts.

You are really going to subject your children to being the last stragglers to get vaccinated before the mandates fall for good? Weird thing about Covid is watching people hang on to temporary conveniences and situations gambling their health and their lives against the lies concerning the jabs.

I'd take my kids out of school for a year and eat beans every night before having them take those shots. Your wife sounds like the type who would blame you either way. If you let them have shots, and their health suffers from it, she will blame you. If you insist they don't take the shots, she'll blame you for the results to a few life conveniences and opportunities. Whining and shrieking AFTER the fact of the jabs is too little too late. Also, there is a serious ethical question about how you deal with your own children knowing what you know when you let them take the jab but you had the opportunity to spare them.

Buying a house is never a bad idea as long as you want to keep that house for a long time. Renting long term is financial suicide in places like Socal.

Housing Crash? I recommend following pro's like Logan Motashami and Steven Thomas. RE cannot crash if inventory doesnt skyrocket from these historic low levels. The insane appreciation rates are maybe slowing down. The emphasize is on "maybe slowing down".

I bought a house at the beginning of 2020 and another house just at the beginning of this year. Every time I buy, people tell me I bought the top.

Our company built a new MFG site in the greater Nashville area. Besides the direct labor we hired people for administrative jobs (Finance, HR, etc) but they refuse to move to Nashville right now. Its an insane housing market. Bidding wars and escalation clauses are common. They cant find a house or keep losing out to other bidders.

This entire vaccine issue/discussion makes your situation tricky. I had bad health issues after the J&J but feel totally fine after the Pfizer booster.

During a low appreciating housing market you cant go wrong by renting for a while to see if you really like the area and to take enough time to find the right house. In today's insane market I would probably buy. You will likely be able to sell at a nice profit even within just a few years (considering transaction costs). There cannot be a crash in places like Nashville because there is such a severe shortage of houses. Nashville is one large construction place. There are building everywhere. Lots of high paying jobs. This wont slow anytime soon.

There is absolutely no reason you have to spend that much in Nashville unless you impose it on yourself.

Ceffer says

You are really going to subject your children to being the last stragglers to get vaccinated before the mandates fall for good? Weird thing about Covid is watching people hang on to temporary conveniences and situations gambling their health and their lives against the lies concerning the jabs.

I'd take my kids out of school for a year and eat beans every night before having them take those shots. Your wife sounds like the type who would blame you either way. If you let them have shots, and their health suffers from it, she will blame you. If you insist they don't take the shots, she'll blame you for the results to a few life conveniences and opportunities. Whining and shrieking AFTER the fact of the jabs is too little too late. Also, there is a serious ethical question about how you deal with your own children knowing what you know when you let them take the jab but you had the opportunity to spare them.

Exactly how I feel. Nailed it.

My wife thinks I’m a radical conspiracy nut for turning our lives upside down to avoid the shots for our sons. I told her I’d kill myself if I let them get jabbed and their health were impacted. She knows I’d go fucking crazy if that happened, which is true. I cannot let it happen.

I tell her we need to suffer inconveniences to stand up for what’s right, and she gets pissed. She’s the type that will roll over and comply to keep life copacetic. It has caused me to respect her less after all this, but SO many people are like this. She’s the norm, while we all seem to be the exception.

AmericanKulak says

I think you should say "Rent Two more years and you won't regret it."

ouch, I have heard that too many times. Know a guy who sold his house for 500k in Socal a few years ago. He talked his wife into the "market is going to crash soon". She agreed back then which she deeply regrets. Now she posts on social media how their house >>they no longer own<< is worth over 1M today. They still rent. Imagine the market dips. You honestly think their house will lose 50% in value anytime soon??

People will always tell you, "crash soon", 'two more years". The truth is, nobody can time the market. Nobody knows. If you would have asked people in 2019 what will the inflation rate be in 2022 they would have told you 1%, 2%, 3%. Nobody saw 7.5% coming again in our lifetime.

lets say you buy in Nashville and the market dips in two years? so fucking what? you have a house and a happy family. Long term you are going to be just fine and dont have to deal with all the shit that comes with renting.

the truth is it sounds like you should just sit back and go for the ride because your wife seems to be running things.

Save_Ukraine says

lets say you buy in Nashville and the market dips in two years? so fucking what? you have a house and a happy family. Long term you are going to be just fine and dont have to deal with all the shit that comes with renting.

Unless there's a Depression and $1.4M becomes an $800k house. $10/gallon gas will certainly do it.

I feel very bad for you. Seriously, good luck.

Save_Ukraine says

AmericanKulak says

I think you should say "Rent Two more years and you won't regret it."

ouch, I have heard that too many times. Know a guy who sold his house for 500k in Socal a few years ago. He talked his wife into the "market is going to crash soon". She agreed back then which she deeply regrets. Now she posts on social media how their house >>they no longer own<< is worth over 1M today. They still rent. Imagine the market dips. You honestly think their house will lose 50% in value anytime soon??

People will always tell you, "crash soon", 'two more years". The truth is, nobody can time the market. Nobody knows. If you would have asked people in 2019 what will the inflation rate be in 2022 they would have told you 1%, 2%, 3%. Nobody saw 7.5% coming again in our lifetime.

lets say you buy in Nashville and the market dips in two years? so fucking what? you have a house...

Very true. This is why I can't argue that housing is going to crash. I do think as long as I can afford the house and we're relatively happy with it, just stay there and ride it all out.

komputodo says

the truth is it sounds like you should just sit back and go for the ride because your wife seems to be running things.

Hardly. If my wife were running things, we'd be staying right where we're at, sons getting the clot shot, us buying a house here, and retiring here. I'm the only one pushing to leave California, and it will happen if I want it to. It's just that the specific area we had our eyes and hearts on is ridiculously expensive, so it has thrown a major wrench in my master plan.

WineHorror1 says

I feel very bad for you. Seriously, good luck.

Thanks man. I think about the shit going down around the world and my problems are miniscule. I just have to keep things in perspective, and ensure that my sons getting the jab is an absolutely dealbreaker no matter which path we go down.

porkchopexpress says

Hardly. If my wife were running things, we'd be staying right where we're at, buying a house here, and retiring here. I'm the only one pushing to leave California, and it will happen if I want it to. It's just that the specific area we had our eyes and hearts on is ridiculously expensive, so it has thrown a major wrench in my master plan.

Distraction might be the answer. Offer to take her on a nice vacation tour of Florida, Texas, Georgia, etc. with 4-star hotel weekends... to "be sure of all the options".

San Antonio is nice, though getting Austinized. The riverwalk is amazing, and tons of culture stuff. Saint Augustine is another choice - you get a real Fall with some cool weather but not many actual Cold days, and they have quite a bit of cool things, plus Orlando with world class dining and other things is just an hour or two away, plus Daytona which is more party hearty.

AmericanKulak says

Save_Ukraine says

lets say you buy in Nashville and the market dips in two years? so fucking what? you have a house and a happy family. Long term you are going to be just fine and dont have to deal with all the shit that comes with renting.

Unless there's a Depression and $1.4M becomes an $800k house. $10/gallon gas will certainly do it.

I know, but can I continue to live my life that way? I want to own and I'm so tired of renting for so many goddamn years, but we all know the markets are fucking nuts and we're SO due for a recession.

porkchopexpress says

I know, but can I continue to live my life that way? I want to own and I'm so tired of renting for so many goddamn years, but we all know the markets are fucking nuts and we're SO due for a recession.

That's an angle. Ask her what would happen if the job market tanked.

AmericanKulak says

porkchopexpress says

I know, but can I continue to live my life that way? I want to own and I'm so tired of renting for so many goddamn years, but we all know the markets are fucking nuts and we're SO due for a recession.

That's an angle. Ask her what would happen if the job market tanked.

She's just confident I would always have a high-paying job. The fact is I'm in a very high demand technology field and would likely always have a job, so I'm fairly confident I'd be earning.

Worst case scenario, we foreclose. If things get that bad, I'd likely have more things to worry about such as nuclear war or smallpox pandemic.

Ceffer says

I'd take my kids out of school for a year and eat beans every night before having them take those shots. Your wife sounds like the type who would blame you either way. If you let them have shots, and their health suffers from it, she will blame you. If you insist they don't take the shots, she'll blame you for the results to a few life conveniences and opportunities. Whining and shrieking AFTER the fact of the jabs is too little too late. Also, there is a serious ethical question about how you deal with your own children knowing what you know when you let them take the jab but you had the opportunity to spare them.

Nobody knows where to pay for a fake jab? Maybe a local clinic in a poorer part of town.

File for a religious exemption. I think it's the best path forward.

RWSGFY says

File for a religious exemption. I think it's the best path forward.

I've thought about that. I did it for my new job and avoided the jab, but I'm not sure how CA schools would take an exemption, but it's definitely an option.

porkchopexpress says

mostly reader says

Quick Zillow check shows that Nashville is a lot cheaper than, say, Bay Area. 1.4mil buys a lot of house. Is it a hard number? I'd think that you may be able to lower it, perhaps a lot, without sacrificing your current living conditions. Or is it not so?

Look at Franklin and Brentwood, specifically houses zoned to Ravenwood HS or Brentwood HS.

Everyone is bidding up homes like crazy. One is listed for $1.35M and has been bid up to $1.6M just in the first weekend. It’s nuts.

Here's my search: https://www.zillow.com/brentwood-tn/sold/house_type/3-_beds/2.0-_baths/7_p/?searchQueryState=%7B%22pagination%22%3A%7B%22currentPage%22%3A7%7D%2C%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%22Brentwood%2C+TN%22%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-86.94309726337974%2C%22east%22%3A-86.59634128193443%2C%22south%22%3A35.87978411164303%2C%22north%22%3A36.07658069954294%7D%2C%22regionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A30583%2C%22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22isMapVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22price%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A900000%2C%22max%22%3A1250000%7D%2C%22mp%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A3300%2C%22max%22%3A4584%7D%2C%22lot%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A10890%7D%2C%22built%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A2000%7D%2C%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%2C%22con%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22mf%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22manu%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22land%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22tow%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22apa%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22apco%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22sch%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%2C%22beds%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A3%7D%2C%22baths%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A2%7D%2C%22rs%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%2C%22fsba%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22fsbo%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22nc%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22cmsn%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22auc%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22fore%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22mapZoom%22%3A12%7D&source=patrick.net

Filters: Brentwood, Sold, 900K-1.3mil, Build in 2000+, 1/4acre+, 3+bd, 2+ ba

316 Results. Many of them recent.

Although the same filter changed to "For Sale" only showed 1 result. That 1 result was right under 1 mil but "coming soon".

Not sure what to make of it, and not sure about schools. Perhaps that's where the catch is.

RWSGFY says

File for a religious exemption. I think it's the best path forward.

This and if that doesn't work I know it's illegal but could you just make some fake vacine paperwork up, I mean come on its ok for illegals.

RC2006 says

RWSGFY says

File for a religious exemption. I think it's the best path forward.

This and if that doesn't work I know it's illegal but could you just make some fake vacine paperwork up, I mean come on its ok for illegals.

True, but this DOJ could throw me in the brig if they find out.

mostly reader says

Filters: Brentwood, Sold, 900K-1.3mil, Build in 2000+, 1/4acre+, 3+bd, 2+ ba

316 Results. Many of them recent.

Although the same filter changed to "For Sale" only showed 1 result. That 1 result was right under 1 mil but "coming soon".

Not sure what to make of it, and not sure about schools. Perhaps that's where the catch is.

Your filter is for sold homes. For sale? Much different story. There are a few options we're looking at, but the prices and inventory are ridiculous.

porkchopexpress says

Your filter is for sold homes. For sale? Much different story. There are a few options we're looking at, but the prices and inventory are ridiculous.

Yes, I mentioned that part. Does it mean that the market it going through a drastic and rapid boom? Or perhaps there's something seasonal going on and there'll be more inventory going forward? What do the agents say?

I would absolutely refuse under all conditions to let kids be injected with the experimental gene-modifying thing.

The injection is not reversible.




And the truth is already out.

mostly reader says

porkchopexpress says

Your filter is for sold homes. For sale? Much different story. There are a few options we're looking at, but the prices and inventory are ridiculous.

Yes, I mentioned that part. Does it mean that the market it going through a drastic and rapid boom? Or perhaps there's something seasonal going on and there'll be more inventory going forward? What do the agents say?

Ok. The agent says this is the most abnormal market he's ever seen. He admits interest rates are rising, but he doesn't entirely believe that's going to drive prices down...granted, he's a realtor.

A TON outsiders are moving into this area to escape blue states and it's a highly sought-after zone because of Franklin and the schools. It's elite. There's a reason the rich are buying up this place.

porkchopexpress says

RC2006 says

RWSGFY says

File for a religious exemption. I think it's the best path forward.

This and if that doesn't work I know it's illegal but could you just make some fake vacine paperwork up, I mean come on its ok for illegals.

True, but this DOJ could throw me in the brig if they find out.

you dont need fake paperwork, get a fake jab....pay $500 for it.....make it worth their while.in a small clinic..think out of the box for once in your life

komputodo says

porkchopexpress says

RC2006 says

RWSGFY says

File for a religious exemption. I think it's the best path forward.

This and if that doesn't work I know it's illegal but could you just make some fake vacine paperwork up, I mean come on its ok for illegals.

True, but this DOJ could throw me in the brig if they find out.

you dont need fake paperwork, get a fake jab....pay $500 for it.....make it worth their while.in a small clinic..think out of the box for once in your life

For once in my life? No need to be a dick about it, but thanks for the idea.

porkchopexpress says

Ok. The agent says this is the most abnormal market he's ever seen. He admits interest rates are rising, but he doesn't entirely believe that's going to drive prices down...granted, he's a realtor.

A TON outsiders are moving into this area to escape blue states and it's a highly sought-after zone because of Franklin and the schools. It's elite. There's a reason the rich are buying up this place.

In that case, here's what I think.

Instead of move vs. stay issue, reframe it into buy vs. rent issue in which move vs. stay is a smaller variable. This is your starter home, right? You do not currently own in California, right? This bit is important. Because prop 13 and other whatnots which make it more difficult to leave if you already dropped an anchor here.

If you haven't dropped that proverbial anchor, and you expect that this house will be a substantial part of your wealth, then look for a market with biggest growth potential. California is not longer that IMHO. It's expensive in California, and it still goes up, but so does inflation. Many markets nationwide way outperform CA in terms of growth. I just learned that Nashville is one of them.

If you look to buy, and that house is a substantial part of your net worth, and your employment doesn't depend on you being in San Diego, then moving is totally justified. Financially, that is. With or without your vaccine concerns.

Now, weather is a different thing. Leaving San Diego would be tough. Because weather.

porkchopexpress says

We've only ever rented and she will NOT agree to moving to another rental; she wants to buy.

As someone who has moved out of state before, that's is patently stupid, but don't say that. You don't know the area, and no matter how much research you do, you won't have enough info to buy before you move. Rent for at least a year so you can have an idea of where you want to buy, then buy.

On the last point, alot of people thought it wouldn't crash in '08. If economy doesn't crash this year, I'd be really surprised. Too many indicators that it will. I've been passively looking at El Centro and Yuma, and I actually see rents starting to stabilize, or go down. Have you considered Yuma as an alternative? 2.5 hours away, and Arizona has no shot mandate. Although neither does California. What's currently in place requires FDA approval, which seems really doubtful given what's transpired. There is another bill that wouldn't require FDA approval introduced in January, but I haven't heard that's passed, and again, seems doubtful.

You will save money if you move, but it's an adjustment, so make sure you're doing it for the right reasons, things that will actually impact you.

Save_Ukraine says

Renting long term is financial suicide in places like Socal.

We've rented for 14 years in SoCal(mostly in houses). Have never paid as much as a mortgage would have cost us. Logan, is that you?

porkchopexpress says

For once in my life? No need to be a dick about it, but thanks for the idea.

well you act like its an insurmountable problem like metastasized cancer in your whole body....hell, this vax thing is hardly a speedbump...if you are uncomfortable asking around, get one of your buddies to do it..i'd find a POC nurse in a poorer clinic......one that could use another $1000 cash.....theres a lot of those

mostly reader says

In that case, here's what I think.

Instead of move vs. stay issue, reframe it into buy vs. rent issue in which move vs. stay is a smaller variable. This is your starter home, right? You do not currently own in California, right? This bit is important. Because prop 13 and other whatnots which make it more difficult to leave if you already dropped an anchor here.

If you haven't dropped that proverbial anchor, and you expect that this house will be a substantial part of your wealth, then look for a market with biggest growth potential. California is not longer that IMHO. It's expensive in California, and it still goes up, but so does inflation. Many markets nationwide way outperform CA in terms of growth. I just learned that Nashville is one of them.

If you look to buy, and that house is a substantial part of your net worth, and your employment doesn't depend on you being in San Diego, then moving is totally justified. Financially, that is. With or without your vaccin...

We don't own a house, so no Prop 13 anchor. We also have no family here. The only thing keeping us here is inertia, weather, and our kids being in a high school that they like. So as you can see, leaving California shouldn't be a huge hit to us.

NuttBoxer says

porkchopexpress says

We've only ever rented and she will NOT agree to moving to another rental; she wants to buy.

As someone who has moved out of state before, that's is patently stupid, but don't say that. You don't know the area, and no matter how much research you do, you won't have enough info to buy before you move. Rent for at least a year so you can have an idea of where you want to buy, then buy.

On the last point, alot of people thought it wouldn't crash in '08. If economy doesn't crash this year, I'd be really surprised. Too many indicators that it will. I've been passively looking at El Centro and Yuma, and I actually see rents starting to stabilize, or go down. Have you considered Yuma as an alternative? 2.5 hours away, and Arizona has no shot mandate. Although neither does California. What's currently in place requires FDA approval, which seems really doubtful given what's transpired. There is ...

California has a mandate for 16y/o or older. They're just waiting on FDA approval for younger, which I believe will happen since they're all corrupt anyway. Besides, I can't wait around for when it happens and then have them subjected to it. I need lead time to up and move away.

We're not really interested in AZ...too, too dry. We need to have a sizeable city and int'l airport max 30-45 minutes away.

I agree on feeling like there's a crash coming. We're even seeing signs in the stock market. I just wish I could wait a year and see what happens, but this fucking mandate. Plus, it's much harder to move my kids with only a year left in school vs now where they have 2-3 years left in HS. So, it's either move this Summer or wait until they're done with HS in order to minimize the damage to them socially.

NuttBoxer says

Save_Ukraine says

Renting long term is financial suicide in places like Socal.

We've rented for 14 years in SoCal(mostly in houses). Have never paid as much as a mortgage would have cost us. Logan, is that you?

Same, but I wish I had bought in 2013 when we moved to SD, but we couldn't afford it back then. Then when prices jumped up, I thought I'd wait for the next dip, which never happened because the Fed went apeshit on free money. What can ya do

Thanks everyone for your comments. You've given a lot for me to think about, and it's nice to be validated that I'm not crazy when I'm the only one standing up for logic.