patrick.net

It is historically true that real estate is one means to build wealth. Whether it performs better or worse than other investment options, from stocks to bonds to gold to bitcoin, depends on several factors, some that can be controlled others that cannot. Everyone has their own risk tolerance, investing objectives and time horizon that influences whether or not real estate is a "good" investment. For me personally the price of entry has always been too high for me to dip my toe into the waters of real estate investing. Markets have been good to me and a stock never needs a new roof or heating oil.

What drives me crazy is that people started seeing their primary residence as an investment, rather than simply a place to live. Eventually greed trumped common sense and for many it didn't end well once the first bubble popped.

So, is it going to pop again any time soon? I can't understand where all this money is coming from over the last 3-4 years. Did everyone's income double in the last 3-4 years? I don't know a single person whose income has doubled.

I don't see how the answer can be low rates. We've had low rated for quite a while now.

WineHorror1 says

So, is it going to pop again any time soon? I can't understand where all this money is coming from over the last 3-4 years. Did everyone's income double in the last 3-4 years? I don't know a single person whose income has doubled.

I don't see how the answer can be low rates. We've had low rated for quite a while now.

9 trillion dollars were created over the last few years. That money isn’t gone, it got funneled to the top like always, and the rich are busy trying to hedge it against predictable inflation by buying up real estate. Most of the activity is in big trusts and hedge funds. They aren’t buying most of the houses but they are putting a floor underneath prices in many areas. It isn’t going to crash. Not this time. It might not even crash if the vax kills 50% of the population! Real estate is sticky because inflation is really high. I think it was almost 10% last year and will top 15% when the numbers from 2022 are crunched sometime next year. This is 1970s style inflation and seems completely out of control. The Federal Reserve can’t control it anymore. All they can do is stop printing money. They can’t raise rates significantly enough to control inflation. There’s too much money out there buying up things. And the national debt is 30 trillion. Every point of interest on that money is going to cost us in the budget.

WineHorror1 says

So, is it going to pop again any time soon? I can't understand where all this money is coming from over the last 3-4 years. Did everyone's income double in the last 3-4 years? I don't know a single person whose income has doubled.

WineHorror, have you spent some time in Fremont, or working in the office cubicles of Silicon Valley? For an idea of scale, the middle class of India is bigger than the entire population of our country. The elite in that country aspire to live in the SF Bay Area, not Flyover Country. These are mostly not middle class kids: they are the elite Rich Kids of the 1% of their billion people, whose parents can buy them the Best Education Money Can Buy. Why do you suppose the IIT (Indian Institute of Technology) has class reunions in Silicon Valley? With the IIT degree the parents can buy their kids into the top grad schools in the US. For them, the H-1 visa is just a detail to immigrate. Downpayment money is not an issue.

Housing tracts of Cupertino and Fremont Union High School District (not in Fremont, - mostly in Cupertino and some parts of Sunnyvale and San Jose)? That's same sort of thing with Rich Kids immigrating from "Greater" China.

To these sorts of folks, the Bay Area is not crowded/congested: it is uncrowded, spacious, like The Wide Open Prairie. And it is not expensive: it is Bargain Prices.

The Bay Area is a tiny place to shoehorn in those Rich Kids. The ill-liquid Bay Area housing market is an even tinier place.

Small numbers of these folks, and the small number of others with huge stock option/RSU gains, will swamp out the few homes for sale in those zip codes, pushing out other prospective "middle class" buyers to less expensive neighborhoods like my working class neighborhood in East SJ that not so long ago were strictly blue collar.

When those non-immigrant folks who are comfortable living in Flyover Country leave the Bay Area (like some who have posted here), the Asian Contagion on the house prices trickles down to those places, like Boise or Austin or wherever, causing some resentment among those locals.

The steady increase in the house prices has partly depended on the steady flow of demand from the steady flow of those Rich Kids. We shall see if recent changes like work from home, etc., change this equilibrium.

GreaterNYCDude says

What drives me crazy is that people started seeing their primary residence as an investment, rather than simply a place to live

That's Bay Area Smug.

Fortwaynemobile says

We bought a house in Idaho. Not sure yet what to do with CA one. Can rent it out, or sell it and not have a mortgage on the new purchase.

If you rent it out, and for some reason you decide to return to California, you will have a place to land. Someone who posts and comments on Patrick's site relocated from California (maybe San Diego?) to relocate to Arizona only to return here.

Then, if you establish roots in Idaho and your kids assimilate into being Idahoans, and it looks like the move is permanent, you won't need the place to land and that will be the time to sell.

Shaman says

The Federal Reserve can’t control it anymore. All they can do is stop printing money. They can’t raise rates significantly enough to control inflation. There’s too much money out there buying up things. And the national debt is 30 trillion.

Who is the 30 trillion in debt owed to? Part of the great reset will be the people who are owed will lose it all when even governments like USA default on their debt.

But I agree, until the powers that be hit the reset button, there will be no dramatic crash in prices. Higher prices for most goods, and housing are already baked into the cake. Thanks Biden and Klaus

@B.A.C.A.H.

You're only talking about 1 or 2 small areas. As far as I can tell, this is happening country wide.

B.A.C.A.H. says

If you rent it out, and for some reason you decide to return to California, you will have a place to land. Someone who posts and comments on Patrick's site relocated from California (maybe San Diego?) to relocate to Arizona only to return here.

The mistake was thinking we'd make that five hour drive to San Diego monthly. But the bigger mistake was not moving with family. If you know someplace you might be interested in where friends or family are already living, that's the place to target.

We did not move back to the city though, and we will never return. Something else to consider, as cities are going to becoming increasingly un-appealing.

Eman says

As a real estate flipper

In case you haven't heard, it's looking like they are going to outlaw flipping here in CA.

B.A.C.A.H. says

If you rent it out

You lose a lot of rights to your property here in CA. I recommend he sells. If you want rental property do it in a red state.

Are We Headed Into Another Real Estate Collapse?

Is there really any doubt in your mind?

zzyzzx says

Are We Headed Into Another Real Estate Collapse?

Is there really any doubt in your mind?

When? How?

Slowdown maybe, collapse? I don't think so.
Look at the buyer profile who purchased in the last decade. Look at the Demand to supply ratio.

FJB says

Eman says

As a real estate flipper

In case you haven't heard, it's looking like they are going to outlaw flipping here in CA.

Yes, this issue was discussed on the board last week. Let’s see how it goes.

zzyzzx says

Are We Headed Into Another Real Estate Collapse?

Is there really any doubt in your mind?

Yup, there are doubts. Will it be a slow drop, a correction, or a full blown crash? The housing market has been having a lack of inventory issue rather than oversupply. The rise in interest rates will put a dampen on the appreciation for sure. Next year will likely be the top.

GreaterNYCDude says

For me personally the price of entry has always been too high for me to dip my toe into the waters of real estate investing.

This is what I’ve learned. The barrier of entry is always too high. This is to keep most people out of the game. Once you got it figured out, real estate is a great vehicle to build wealth. Your kids will get a stepped up in basis and walk away with millions tax-free. If your kids can manage the assets and build on top of it, it can become generational wealth.

If it were easy, everyone would be doing it.

FJB says

If you want rental property do it in a red state.

Yeah, not to own rental property, but as a landing spot if he or his family changes their minds. Rental SFH in California at today's prices is a horribly sucky value. But if a tenant can pay the carrying cost while they settle in (or not) then they won't be locked into the relocation as soon as they set foot on the ground in Idaho.

WineHorror1 says

zzyzzx says

Are We Headed Into Another Real Estate Collapse?

Is there really any doubt in your mind?

When? How?

This year when the printing finally catches up to the criminals and the economy implodes.

Fiat currency economies operate on bullshit, because if they were honest, they'd die. So diving head first into the details doesn't help you to understand, just makes you smell like shit. You have to look at the big picture, separate the truth from the lies. Only then will you understand probable outcomes.

WineHorror1 says

When? How?

IMO, the combination of the ending of the foreclosure and eviction moratoriums and higher interest rates is going to be the catalyst for a housing downturn at some point. This is going to free up a lot of units, but it will take time.

B.A.C.A.H. says

But if a tenant can pay the carrying cost

As long as they don't tear out your walls to get pipe and copper wire or blow up the garage with a meth lab.

But you can always buzz down from Idaho and take care of business. If your neighborhood is getting as bad as you say, sell now and cash out on the stupid prices.

You don't want to move back anyway.

NuttBoxer says

probable outcomes.

We're all going to die and all have to pay taxes.

I agree that the system has to implode. I'm surprised it has gone on this long. Without making any definite predictions I don't think it can last more than a couple more centuries.

Eman says

Fortwaynemobile says

Why take equity out vs just getting a loan?

Take equity out = do a cash out refinance aka getting a new loan with cash (equity) out.

With single units, like a condo or SFH, the rent/price ratio is not favorable. Duplex to 4plex get a little better ratio. To get more favorable ratio, one has to look at 5+ unit apartment. In fact, the more units/building, the better the ratio. I’m looking to scale up to 20 units rather than staying at 6-12 units.

Congrats on the house in Idaho. 🚀🚀

Thank you

Booger says

WineHorror1 says

When? How?

IMO, the combination of the ending of the foreclosure and eviction moratoriums and higher interest rates is going to be the catalyst for a housing downturn at some point. This is going to free up a lot of units, but it will take time.

I thought the moratorium were over. If not, why not?

WineHorror1 says

I thought the moratorium were over. If not, why not?

LA just extended it to 2023.
Otherwise mostly ended, but will take forever to hear all those court cases. And that is just for rentals. The people that haven't paid their mortgage are to take longer to kick out. But if housing values start dropping, some are going to sell as quickly as they can before their equity disappears.

Eman says

As a real estate flipper

If I were flipping, I wouldnt be using that calc either. At least not using it conventionally.

But the calc isn't meant to aid flipping decisions - it's meant to compare renting vs buying for typical cases where the owner stays put for multiple years, and to also help you understand how heavily each of the factors influence the result. I think it works pretty well for that.

Maybe you haven't looked at it lately, but it has many inputs, and all are adjustable, so using local market parameters is not only possible, but a centerpiece of the calc.

Hircus says

Eman says

As a real estate flipper

If I were flipping, I wouldnt be using that calc either. At least not using it conventionally.

But the calc isn't meant to aid flipping decisions - it's meant to compare renting vs buying for typical cases where the owner stays put for multiple years, and to also help you understand how heavily each of the factors influence the result. I think it works pretty well for that.

Maybe you haven't looked at it lately, but it has many inputs, and all are adjustable, so using local market parameters is not only possible, but a centerpiece of the calc.

Someone posted a house in Sunnyvale sold for $2.8M. The guesstimate is the house rents for around $4.2k/month. Let’s say the seller came to you and said he’d sell it to you for $1.8M, what would you say? Also, if the housing market were to drop/crash, do you, or anyone here, think this house would drop below $1.8M?

Eman says

Someone posted a house in Sunnyvale sold for $2.8M. The guesstimate is the house rents for around $4.2k/month. Let’s say the seller came to you and said he’d sell it to you for $1.8M, what would you say? Also, if the housing market were to drop/crash, do you, or anyone here, think this house would drop below $1.8M?

I'd consider 1.8 a big discount, and would buy it. If this weren't a hypothetical, I would be very suspicious that something was very wrong to warrant the fire sale price when other houses aren't also on sale.

I think it's easily possible a crash could take its value under 1.8, especially since values jumped so far so fast recently. But, I also think such a crash would likely be fairly temporary, and so the banking cartel would push govt very hard to reinflate RE, at least partly, within some short years. I think some serious SHTF would need to happen to make it fall far, and stay down.

Given the out of control gov. spending, its hard to expect downturn in prices for longer periods.

https://realwealth.com/learn/housing-market-predictions/?source=patrick.net

11 More Housing Market Predictions for 2022, 2023, 2024 & 2025

Looking for a real estate forecast for the next 5 years? You’re in luck. This is the only article on the web that includes real estate market predictions beyond 2022. And we go even further than that, outlining our predictions through the year 2025!

Here are my top 11 predictions for the housing market for 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025:

Low mortgage interest rates through 2021
Home prices should continue to rise in many markets

Investors will probably swoop in and buy SFHs then rent them out as the market tanks.

You'll own nothing and you'll be happy.

Onvacation says

As long as they don't tear out your walls to get pipe and copper wire or blow up the garage with a meth lab.

Hmmm..... you may have a point there, bro:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/How-a-San-Francisco-remodel-turned-into-an-epic-nightmare-involving-city-red-tape-squatters-and-cops-shrugging-off-crime/ss-AAVglyq?ocid=msedgntp&fullscreen=true&parent-ns=ar&parent-title=How-a-San-Francisco-remodel-turned-into-an-epic-nightmare-involving-city-red-tape-squatters-and-cops-shrugging-off-crime&parent-content-id=AAVgrQn&source=patrick.net

I found this site a little over 10 years ago when I was homeless saving money from my $30hr job in order to have a down-payment for a roach infested dog house someday. But, in march/2012 I bought my 2-bedroom townhome for 45.8k which was the amount I had saved (actually 50k) and it's now hovering in the 275k range. I never trusted the stock market and have been waiting 10 years for another opportunity while saving more $$$. I'm hoping to buy one more and eventually have 2 rentals with a monthly income of around 3k after taxes. I'm in California so every move you make here you could end up stepping in dog shit so if nothing else I want to buy another property before the dollar becomes worthless.

Eman says

Yes, this issue was discussed on the board last week. Let’s see how it goes.

More crazy shiite:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjpuRxK_AO4&source=patrick.net

"Wall street getting rid of appraisers"

B.A.C.A.H. says

Yeah, not to own rental property, but as a landing spot if he or his family changes their minds.

But in California once you start renting out your place your disposition changes and you lose all sorts of rights. Like who you can sell it to for instance if you ever want to do that.

I believe a new law was just passed (or is about to) where in multi-family your tenants can ban together and say, "The rent is too damn high", and the state will simply take it the fuck away from you. Oh, here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQfSwHgwJsQ&source=patrick.net

"San Francisco to seize all rental property"

As bad as recent shit is just think how bad it will become. I don't see any long term future for investing in real estate in California. Short term sure...

FJB says

I believe a new law was just passed (or is about to) where in multi-family your tenants can ban together and say, "The rent is too damn high", and the state will simply take it the fuck away from you. Oh, here it is:

Somehow, this law will not apply to Blackrock.

HeadSet says

Somehow, this law will not apply to Blackrock.

Can't agree with that any more strongly. I'm evacuating CA this year and fortunately my rentals are out of state. I think Ft Wayne should just go and not look back - except to watch the news in amazement when several years from now there are enough illegals to overturn prop-13.

People will lose their shit.

FJB says

But in California once you start renting out your place your disposition changes and you lose all sorts of rights. Like who you can sell it to for instance if you ever want to do that.

And that are where opportunities come. People see problems and they run away. In real estate, the more problems you can solve/navigate, the more money you make.

There are a ton of opportunities in San Francisco. That’s why the big money has been moving in and scooping up these apartments at deep discount prices. They let time do the heavy lifting.

Big money has deep pockets, and they can win by appeal to higher courts on stupid rules established by crazy SF lefties.

Hircus says

I'd consider 1.8 a big discount, and would buy it.

This is what I do on a daily basis. For single family homes, I’ll flip to put food on the table. For apartments, I let time do the heavy lifting. Since I buy at a discount, I do a cash out refinance, get all my equity out of the building, and let the tenants pay-off the building. Rinse and repeat.

It’s not easy. It requires patience, great network, and it’s a full-time job to hunt for these deals. However, it pays much better than a W2, and the stress is much less. You also get an opportunity to build multigenerational wealth. Look at John Sobrato’s family, Trump’s family, Barry Swenson Builder, Todd Spieker’s family to name a few.

Eman says

Big money has deep pockets, and they can win by appeal to higher courts on stupid rules established by crazy SF lefties.

Well, your history is impressive and if you can keep it going congrats!

I personally don't see that strategy lasting though. We're seeing tons of crazy shit at the Federal level these past few years I never would have imagined would happen.

Now if we're talking Black Rock sort of deep pockets then yeah.

FJB says

I personally don't see that strategy lasting though. We're seeing tons of crazy shit at the Federal level these past few years I never would have imagined would happen.

Said Casey Serin.