patrick.net

And yes, if BTC falls after tax day and holds the bullish trendline and the same Russell 2000, EURUSD, & GBPUSD holding their ground as before, then you can re-play the same trade.

But don't stop the DRIPs on stocks which have had their prices knocked down regularly like Altria.

Trust the experts

ABSOLUTELY!!! BACK UP THE TRUCK!!!!

LUKOIL STOCK IS LOOKING GOOD TOO!!

Misc says

So many scams...so little time...

Let's start with BP's decision to pull out of its $25 billion oil venture in Russia. I have a feeling that they aren't doing this because they want to support the downtrodden Ukrainians. Nope, I'm gonna bet that BP sells this venture for a pittance to enterprises that somehow lead back to ownership by the corporate executives at BP. Nobody will check this though. You get what you get as a shareholder.

I eagerly look forward to other scams reported from Patrick.net members.

So is it a scam or just your WAG? We're a tough bunch here and require solid proof, not jus some Mockingbird droppings, mkay?

FarmersWon says

Powerful images of the Ukrainian people’s unexpectedly stiff resistance to Russian invasion have shined a spotlight on the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Under the agreement, Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons on its territory. In exchange for this concession, Russia and the West pledged to respect the former Soviet state’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-lesson-of-budapest-hold-on-to-your-nukes-ukraine-russia-invasion-nuclear-weapons-proliferation-11646257487?source=patrick.net

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB104974774899627300?source=patrick.net

Funny that people don't learn from history, and repeat it.

How does this help with intersectional racial equity for marginalized sexual minorities and people of color?

It’s kind of funny that the trucks and tanks are stuck in the mud, so Ukraine is both figuratively and literally a quagmire.

Zelensky is a clown. Professionally. Is this news to you?

Yep, that was his speech to UK Parliament touched on, criticism of NATO.

He could be prepping the Public to take the deal: Putin stopped because of your tough resistance, NATO unwilling to help, the deal isn't great but we kept our Freedom.

I hope so. We need to step away from the precipice.
Fucking Brandon!

Yes, lets end this war. Means less people killed and no more distraction from holding Biden accountable for Covid and inflation missteps. However, watch Biden now take steps to prolong the war since the war takes the attention off of him.

The requests seem pretty reasonable, but not the first time they've been asked. Someone is pushing/paying Zelensky to stay in this against Ukraine's best interests.

"Can we keep our money laundering, drug smuggling and human trafficking in partnership with the West in East Ukraine? Otherwise, we will have to bring back the tourist trade."

"Yes, of course, but there is going to be a transfer of management to Russia. We'll keep all the dossiers on the old bosses for leverage."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lbiplu3Cyjg&source=patrick.net

Both links, twitter and youtube, point to the same handle: RussiaUkrainewar
Who are they? I'd bet that they are not a genuine Ukrainian source. I doubt that this is Ukraine propaganda. Looks more like pretend-to-be clowns.

Too clown-esque.

Patrick Lancaster has been reporting conflicts long before this.

If you want to talk about propaganda, at least this guy is actually on the ground, and does more than films smoke puffs off in the distance, then report any reality that they want.

mostly reader says

Both links, twitter and youtube, point to the same handle: RussiaUkrainewar
Who are they? I'd bet that they are not a genuine Ukrainian source. I doubt that this is Ukraine propaganda. Looks more like pretend-to-be clowns.

Too clown-esque.

I have no way to agree/disagree on factual basis with you.
But I would say CNN, Fox news and other mainstream media has no credibility left either.

It is hard to know what is real/fake anymore unless you have foot on ground . or you know someone personally reliable who have foot on ground.

Tenpoundbass says

Patrick Lancaster has been reporting conflicts long before this.

If you want to talk about propaganda, at least this guy is actually on the ground, and does more than films smoke puffs off in the distance, then report any reality that they want.

Answer is he is as reliable as mainstream media if not more.

Linky no worky.

Patrick is retired young and has the scratch to buy a home elsewhere if desired. Patrick's rent strategy is hyper-rational whereas home ownership is largely irrational, since you never own the pile anyway, you just rent it from the tax and insurance terrorists in perpetuity, even if you have paid off the vig.

That being said, the fake sense of security from home ownership is OK on the theory that a fake sense of security is better than no sense of security. A lot of people also like to orgasm on the notion of their fiat paper appreciation. Listening to Californians swanning about on the basis of speculative appreciation is kind of icky.

Ceffer says

Patrick is retired young and has the scratch to buy a home elsewhere if desired. Patrick's rent strategy is hyper-rational whereas home ownership is largely irrational, since you never own the pile anyway, you just rent it from the tax and insurance terrorists in perpetuity, even if you have paid off the vig.

@patrick is rational, But our government is neither rational nor honest.
Other issue is not too many fighting on Patrick's side.. Everyone is happy to use home as ATM.

Can you really survive by being rational in this system?

FarmersWon says

Can you really survive by being rational in this system?

You have a point. I would never argue with anybody who wants to enjoy benefits now in exchange for dangling carrots in the future. However, having been through a few downturns, nothing lasts forever, including fiat speculations. My tri valley hood had two periods when the houses stayed on the market for years without selling.

Ceffer says

You have a point. I would never argue with anybody who wants to enjoy benefits now in exchange for dangling carrots in the future. However, having been through a few downturns, nothing lasts forever, including fiat speculations. My tri valley hood had two periods when the houses stayed on the market for years without selling.

Again it is up to government.
How about negative interest rates?
This government rewards wrong people, Rent Seeking is preferred over hard work...
Is it really rational to be "rational" in irrational system?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-negative-rates-homeowners-in-europe-are-paid-to-borrow-11616664600?source=patrick.net

With Negative Rates, Homeowners in Europe Are Paid to Borrow
Covid-19 pushes benchmarks deeper into negative territory, widening the pool of mortgage holders who receive interest

I have not accepted defeat, but I do worry that the money I have in cash accounts for living expenses is rapidly being devalued, so I'm looking for ways to invest it safely.

The majority of my money is in stocks in retirement accounts. I don't have access to it without paying taxes and penalties. On the other hand, stocks usually compensate for inflation, so the fed is on the side of people who own stocks in a way.

I would buy a house if I could find one I liked for a reasonable amount of money. I love California's landscape and weather, but the California government and taxes really suck. Another problem is that my wife has a job here, so we can't easily move out of state at the moment.

Ideally, enough people will get tired of taxes, crime, and corruption caused by Democrats that they will vote the bastards out, but so far I haven't seen evidence that people in California have made the connection between the Democratic party and California's problems.

Have we forgotten the maxim that founded this site!? Nothing goes up forever.

Patrick says

The majority of my money is in stocks in retirement accounts. I don't have access to it without paying taxes and penalties.

My way around this is to buy dividend paying stocks. If I need money, I can just decide to collect the money instead of reinvesting. Yea, I'd have to pay income taxes on it, but I wouldn't be selling anything.

Patrick says

Ideally, enough people will get tired of taxes, crime, and corruption caused by Democrats that they will vote the bastards out, but so far I haven't seen evidence that people in California have made the connection between the Democratic party and California's problems.

Eh... hard to claw back shit that's already in place. I've accepted that reality here in IL. The key is to at least tap the brakes on spending and increasing government. Cuts are not a thing in government unless it's an absolutely dire situation.

Patrick says

On the other hand, stocks usually compensate for inflation, so the fed is on the side of people who own stocks in a way.

It depends.
if You are invested in companies producing essentials, Yes inflation will raise the prices and likely stock will track inflation curve.
If invested in super luxury, Only "fad" decide if you win. Price is not related to cost anyway but to rich folks preferences.
..
On the other hand if you are in non-essentials or premium products whose customers are middle class+ , You may lose big... as wages rarely catch on to inflation in US anyway.

@patrick
I suggest you atleast take some real estate as our government is crazy and It helps them to raise prices to steal more property tax from people.
In California property tax shelter can somewhat save you from Govt greed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_California_Proposition_19
You can carry your tax base when over 55. System is rigged against renters and losing fight.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Danville/505-Highland-Dr-94526/home/1070537?source=patrick.net
2021 $13,459 (+0.9%) $494,186 $645,778 $1,139,964

The new owner will pay around $40K, Which is like $27k more.
None of it can be offset in taxes after Trump laws.
To generate safe income to pay after taxes, You probably need $1M investment.

At some point when the old owners sell and new come in, It would become impossible to find good rental place at reasonable price as covering mortgage+taxes need high rents.
(Once the appreciation is gone)

We have a natural instinct to want stability and control over our lives, so owning something is always popular.

I followed my grandmother businesswoman strategy of renting but I also was lucky to live in a nice place for cheap rent in Santa Cruz CA. I could go days without driving. I was going to buy a nice place in Florida and kept asking my landlord if he wanted me to move out. He said never, so I didn’t buy in 2017 in Florida, I missed the boat.

He retired, Wuhan came, his daughter and her boyfriend and he fought so I had to go, the daughter got my cool apartment. Adios Santa Cruz but not a huge problem for me.

Others may have difficulty relocating. I’m not working and I can visit California with the money I save in taxes every year.

Re: “defeat by the federal printing press” above
I don’t know what it means, but for me low interest rates have been good since I was investing in stocks.
A nice feature of my accounts is I paid zero “closing costs”, sales commission or property taxes while they grew.

Patrick says

Ideally, enough people will get tired of taxes, crime, and corruption caused by Democrats that they will vote the bastards out, but so far I haven't seen evidence that people in California have made the connection between the Democratic party and California's problems.

Unfortunately it seems like most people that make decent money in California are living in a Unicorn world and are oblivious to what is happening around them. I see the homes of the upper middle class filled with those signs about blm, respect an blah blah... Then in the neighborhoods where the crime happens, the people that vote want the Dems, because they provide the financial assistance they want and need.

Patrick says

I'm looking for ways to invest it safely.

@Patrick, let me know once you figure it out. Right now, RE flip profits are to put food on the table and pay for living expenses. Apartment incomes are mostly reinvested into more assets. $30k/year in dividends is to give to daughter so she can be a millionaire by the time she’s done with college.

Life is a journey. I’m exploring various options. Don’t know what’s right and what’s wrong. Experience is the best teacher. Please share with us once you figure it out Patrick.

Patrick says

Ideally, enough people will get tired of taxes, crime, and corruption caused by Democrats that they will vote the bastards out, but so far I haven't seen evidence that people in California have made the connection between the Democratic party and California's problems.

I think it's more likely California will hit a turning point and spiral down quickly.

If I had new money coming in, I would continue to buy mutual funds.

If I wanted for the future beyond 5 years or so and didn’t want a 1099, I would buy Vanguard Tax Managed Capital Appreciation.

If I felt cautious, I would buy Vanguard Wellington which is a balanced fund. It’s bonds and dividend stocks so it produces a 1099.

Another cautious fund is High Dividend Yield Index Fund, which will produce a 1099.

If you buy something with a low interest loan that defeats inflation, then your house maintains or increases in value, then it worked. If real estate value drops, which it might due to higher Fed interest rates to clamp down on inflation, then you have just effectively started paying higher interest rate on the depreciated value you finance, maybe lost your down payment, and need to wait until the next real estate cycle upward to recoup.

Come on…

That’s a 4200sq ft house on a 90,000 sq ft lot in the desirable tri valley. The $2.5M wasn’t a real asking price. Get real.

BayArea says

Come on…

That’s a 4200sq ft house on a 90,000 sq ft lot in the desirable tri valley. The $2.5M wasn’t a real asking price. Get real.

This is true. $830 per sq. ft. (@ 3.5 million per 4228 sq. ft) is very close to current estimated market conditions, wheras 2.5 million is artificially low. That isn't even expensive compared to the peninsula areas.

I think a driver of the market is also the desire to trade today's fiat printing press money for hard assets. Even if the nominal fiat printing press money value drops, the asset will still hold on to value better than potentially depreciating, nose diving currency. All the better if you can pay for it with a low interest, fiat money loan. If they start burning up the printing presses cranking out fiat money, then appreciation in fiat dollars could become ridiculous.