patrick.net

During the potato famine, Ireland was a net exporter of food. The reason why the Irish were so dependent on potatoes is that they weren't allowed to kill the cows (which were exported to England). It was strictly potatoes, milk, eggs, cockles, dillisk and the occasional chicken.

In the most extreme phases of the blight, the English paid Irish to perform public works, which involved tearing up the roads (because improving the roads was against fair trade).

The Irish were enslaved for several hundred years under the English. The only ones who suffered longer were the various Indian peoples under the Islamic conquest of India. All the Sultan films, etc. show wealth that was looted from temples and bought by the trade of millions of slaves from that region.

BayArea says

When does Redfin and Zillow start to show a drop?

My primary residence shows $120k higher this month than last.

If I have to guess, after this summer. The Fed is talking about a couple more rate increases in May and June. This will put a dampen on the housing market. Next year will be a plateau year and timber after that if I have to make a bet/guess.

I rarely look at real estate websites.
Today I was curious and saw a place "$100,000 price reduction."
Maybe it was just a seller who was told to adjust it by a realtor.
The scramble for house ownership won't stop as long as immigrants come and find work.
Ask yourself in the rat race; are you faster than the other rats? If so, you win the race.

Hop this contradiction is not a joke,
Flood Factor: Minimal - This property is unlikely to flood over the next 30 years.
About Climate Risk: Most homes have some risk of natural disasters, and may be impacted by climate change due to rising temperatures and sea levels.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/20239-NW-Sq-95014/home/1531059?source=patrick.net
Status: Cumming soon!
Lot Size1,344 Sq. Ft.
Total Sq. Ft.: 1,487 (2b/2ba)
Hoa Dues: 423
Est. Mo. Payment$9,138

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/915-St-Joseph-Ave-94024/home/1364924?source=patrick.net
$21,143 per month
+$76K over list price of $4.00M
Current Property Tax: $2,830 (1978 Prop 13 effect) vs ~$48K (17 times!) for the new owner

Prices do not appear to be cooling down yet. Even above average folks can not afford these prices. Or the some communities are financially segregated with so many entrepreneurs and executives.
In general its really tough if gov keep printing $Ts and spending they somehow appear one way the other, we pay in the form of inflation an indirect stealth tax.

Timing the market is called gambling on the basis of hunches, trends and gossip. It has been shown time and again that timing cannot predict the absolute peaks, valleys or black swans (gray swans for that matter) in a way that can be meaningfully utilized by armchair investors. However, dumb luck is nice when you get it.

Now, direct market manipulation and insider trading that's another thing. That's where most money is made.

Blue says

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/915-St-Joseph-Ave-94024/home/1364924?source=patrick.net
$21,143 per month
+$76K over list price of $4.00M
Current Property Tax: $2,830 (1978 Prop 13 effect) vs ~$48K (17 times!) for the new owner

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

Tri valley is still on fire, home prices rising every month.

Interesting considering 30yr fixed rates are already up nearly 2 full points at the major banks since the 2021 bottom of about 2.5%.

Eman says

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

That looks so much like the house of a guy I knew in Los Altos. However, his house had a nice view of the San Andreas fault line.

Crunch, snap!

Eman says

Blue says

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/915-St-Joseph-Ave-94024/home/1364924?source=patrick.net
$21,143 per month
+$76K over list price of $4.00M
Current Property Tax: $2,830 (1978 Prop 13 effect) vs ~$48K (17 times!) for the new owner

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

Totally agree… I can’t imagine paying that kind of money to live near an interstate. My experience with living and working in tech here in the Bay Area is that usually younger couples aren’t as turned off by freeway living and are more likely to fall in love with the kitchen and ignore the freeway until they learn later that it was a mistake.

For me, living next to a freeway is completely out of the question when house shopping. It’s not even a consideration.

I was invited to dinner in Dublin, CA. It was an old college roommate of my wife who bought a home right near the 680 with her husband. The yard fence/wall was about 50ft from the highway. It was shocking, felt like we were yelling over a nascar race. I don’t get it.

Market timing a home sale. Oh boy.

BayArea says

I was invited to dinner in Dublin, CA. It was an old college roommate of my wife who bought a home right near the 680 with her husband. The yard fence/wall was about 50ft from the highway. It was shocking, felt like we were yelling over a nascar race. I don’t get it.

Maybe they got it for a great price. That was likely the main appeal. Someone will buy it for the right discount regardless if it’s next to the freeway, in the hood, or a former murder scene. I’ve seen quite a bit in this biz.

I used to live next to an interstate highway, as a renter. Could hit the highway with the garden hose. It was loud as F. Even indoors the road noise is constant, but step outside or open a window and it’s practically like being at a race track, had to yell to hold a conversation. And one night there was even a crash, car slammed into a wall, fire lit up the sky, saws and jaws of life. Let’s just say not much sleep that night. One day we got 14 inches of snow, and for a few sweet hours no one was on that highway, it was paradise! But back loud as F the next day. After that I don’t even want to live within a half mile to a mile of a busy road. Road noise is just disgusting.

Eman says

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

May be this could be the reason this house is on discounted price. Price/Sq.Ft.$1,463
compare to the one a bit away from freeway.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/927-Aura-Way-94024/home/1630042?source=patrick.net
$3,195,000 $16,895/mo 3b/2.5Ba 1,412 Sq Ft, Price/Sq.Ft.$2,263

Looked above listing (915 Saint Joseph Ave) one more time, its interesting that the price went up 2.4 times in 3 days!
Mar 24, 2022 Listed $3,998,000
Mar 21, 2022 Listed $1,648,000

I believe some of you who live in south bay still get fliers from used home sales people that saying 'address ...' paid some crazy numbers like 0.5mil more than asking price. I wonder who believe this kind of stuff or this is their best marketing campaign.

DooDahMan says

DAMN, I KIND OF MISSED THE BOAT

It would be OK if it's the Titanic.

Eman says

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

Hey, the payment is only $21,132 per month, after you put $800K down.

See https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/915-St-Joseph-Ave-94024/home/1364924?source=patrick.net

Patrick says

Hey, the payment is only $21,132 per month, after you put $800K down.

$29,494/mo - same used home sales woman put two at the same payments
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/21841-Alcazar-Ave-95014/home/1418086?source=patrick.net
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/10047-Crescent-Rd-95014/home/1293440?source=patrick.net
I know both properties do get reasonable daily dust from Kaiser and Lehigh cement plant trucks on foothill express to serve bay area construction sites where the mercury in the air claimed to be ~600% EPA levels after substantial reduction during the last few years after constant fight by hypocrite elites. Last month "City" decided to "buy the quarry" to be able to shut it down so that cement will be transported from out side of the area from 100s of miles down to pollute even more that hypocrite elites do not care. I had a hard time fighting on nextdoor particularly with Karens from keep the plants operational and the keep the jobs. Their argument is, it pollutes and affects home prices and for jobs they do not care. Now the "less pollution" could be a reason the prices are going up around.

Just wait til folks figure out they are indeed making more land (SB9 lot split). Feeling for the recent buyer in my hood who closed for over $800 /sq.ft. for a duplex. Buckle up!

I follow the 30yr conforming interest rates from the big banks.

7mo ago, the rate was 2.75%
Last month it was 3.75%
Today it’s 4.5% at WF and 4.875% at Union Bank

This is the fastest mortgage rate hike in RE history. Fed hasn’t responded yet so this is all in anticipation of the rate hikes.

I’m not seeing the market responding but expect it has to with a 2pt increase in a very short period of time.

We pay about $1,000/yr. $500k policy, $500k liability and an additional $1M liability because we have a pool. Didn't realize it was so high for others. We do get tornados. We can get extreme flooding. And little known to people we actually have a major fault line here in IL. The New Madrid fault line. I've been awake for 2-3 earthquakes that you can feel even up in N. IL.

I'm far enough away from the fault, but we could still get a 5 where I'm at. The ones I felt were 2-3 (if I recall correctly), but you did notice them. I guess technically I'm in a cheap insurable area of the country. Hail storms are bad for roofing, but overall I'm in a very low risk area for a total loss payout.

Nightclub, Saturday night, 2am closing, club goers packing the street… I have no idea what could have happened here.

By the way, many people were shot. Authorities are asking for the public’s help to capture the shooter(s). But they won’t give out the description to help the public with this task lol

What a joke. I guess we know who did it.

Do not go to or live in cities. My 2¢. It's only going to get worse. My CPD friends are retiring at the earliest possible time and moving to more rural departments. Crime in cities is going to be nasty and has been for the last 1-2 years. Chicago is more dangerous than an actual war zone like Afghanistan before we withdrew, half assed.

Right before last crash up in the mountains near Tamarack ski resort, Idaho on the opposite side of the lake E. where we have a couple of
properties a neighbor was asking 440k+/- for his shack, not far from the lake but not on the lake and got an all cash offer for 415K and turned it down.
The end result was he ended up selling it for the 240K range. My #s are probably off a bit but very much in the ball park..

The moral is: "Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered"

BayArea says

Authorities are asking for the public’s help to capture the shooter(s). But they won’t give out the description to help the public with this task lol

“it was a person” what more do you need? practically a give away.

I got the highest deductible off-the-shelf policy. I think it's $3,000. We should only have these policies for big claims anyway, not nickel and dime sh*t.

The premium for our small single story late 1960's sh*tbox in San Jose is just about exactly $1000. According to ®ealtor websites the home is worth about exactly $1.0 M, but it's all the land. I think the dwelling replacement is something like $300k.

Two years ago, before all the wildfires, the premium was $600.

And of course, homeowners policies in California don't cover earthquake damage. That requires a separate policy with a $1500 premium. The earthquake policies are brokered by the agents, but underwritten by the state. The standard earthquake policy has a $30,000 deductible, and does not cover living expenses.

Welcome to California, homies.

I'll be staying about a block away from the shooting the week after next for a conference.

socal2 says

I'll be staying about a block away from the shooting the week after next for a conference.

Cool story bro 😎

if someone falls it ain’t my fault. insurance companies now sell using fear tactics

WookieMan says

Do not go to or live in cities. My 2¢. It's only going to get worse. My CPD friends are retiring at the earliest possible time and moving to more rural departments. Crime in cities is going to be nasty and has been for the last 1-2 years. Chicago is more dangerous than an actual war zone like Afghanistan before we withdrew, half assed.

Agreed. Cities are fucked, the leftier the earlier and the worse.

Here is what I use as measure. Take a typical good family home for couple in tech etc.
They were like 1.7M in 2008 bubble and then fell to around 1.1M in deep recession and then stabilized around 1.3M.

If we take their true value around 1.3M on 2008 and in 14 years a reasonable price growth of 6% , Here is what should be value.
(Please ignore very high growth and stock values in tech which is another factor).

1.3 over 14 years at 6% is : ~3M
That's what the houses are selling for. If we tweak number, We can reach higher or lower , But It still won't me much off from historical norm in bay area.

I am not sure if we can call this bubble yet... But dollar amount sure seem very high.

BayArea says

7mo ago, the rate was 2.75%

In around ~july-aug, a friend of mine in SJ locked for 2.5% from boa and another one for 2.1% in Dallas, TX (I guess 10/1 arm!).

DooDahMan says

Logan Mohtashami

Da DooDahMan,

Are you Logan? What was your previous username?

signed,
Curious

Like, we are suddenly supposed to trust any stats that come from the foreign occupied foreign city state of Washington DC?

Looks to be mostly Hispanic flavored from the video feed. Of course, only good things happen at 2AM when nightclubs full of intoxicated people hang out.

Eman says

Where will housing prices be in 2038?

Yuan-Roubles

Eman says

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

Cancer rates rise the closer one lives to a freeway.

Still not a single description of the suspect

Not even an attempt.. not even “tall” or “blue shirt”

6 dead, 12 injured, dozens of witnesses… no description from our media.

What does that mean?

BayArea says

What does that mean?

They aren't biologists?

https://youtu.be/5e8gTfQnvCE