patrick.net

Here is what I use as measure. Take a typical good family home for couple in tech etc.
They were like 1.7M in 2008 bubble and then fell to around 1.1M in deep recession and then stabilized around 1.3M.

If we take their true value around 1.3M on 2008 and in 14 years a reasonable price growth of 6% , Here is what should be value.
(Please ignore very high growth and stock values in tech which is another factor).

1.3 over 14 years at 6% is : ~3M
That's what the houses are selling for. If we tweak number, We can reach higher or lower , But It still won't me much off from historical norm in bay area.

I am not sure if we can call this bubble yet... But dollar amount sure seem very high.

BayArea says

7mo ago, the rate was 2.75%

In around ~july-aug, a friend of mine in SJ locked for 2.5% from boa and another one for 2.1% in Dallas, TX (I guess 10/1 arm!).

DooDahMan says

Logan Mohtashami

Da DooDahMan,

Are you Logan? What was your previous username?

signed,
Curious

Like, we are suddenly supposed to trust any stats that come from the foreign occupied foreign city state of Washington DC?

Looks to be mostly Hispanic flavored from the video feed. Of course, only good things happen at 2AM when nightclubs full of intoxicated people hang out.

Eman says

Where will housing prices be in 2038?

Yuan-Roubles

Eman says

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

Cancer rates rise the closer one lives to a freeway.

Still not a single description of the suspect

Not even an attempt.. not even “tall” or “blue shirt”

6 dead, 12 injured, dozens of witnesses… no description from our media.

What does that mean?

BayArea says

What does that mean?

They aren't biologists?

https://youtu.be/5e8gTfQnvCE

Eman says

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

I’ve been questioning why people in California don’t punch their lotto ticket. While the top of the market has been missed, the boat hasn’t so long as sellers aren’t greedy. If your $1.5 million dollar cracker shack will only sell for $1.4 million now, just kick yourself in the rear end for being irrationally stubborn, and take a $600k profit instead of $700k.

Imagine sold at the top of the housing market in 1989

Imagine sold at the top of the housing market in 2006

Imagine sold at the top of the housing market in 2022

Where will housing prices be in 2038? 🤔

How many owned and were in a position to sell in 1989 and are still alive today?

I have this same argument on hobby boards for Sportscards. Yes very cool that you have those mid 70’s boxes of unopened wax packs…whole boxes worth in the tens of thousands. But you’re 85 years old so who really gives a fuck? If your kids inherit, they’re selling immediately to the first shark that offers 40-50% of market.

Better to have sold 15 years ago for a few thousand and take the wifey on a dream vacation.

This is better known as stubborn irrationality.

If I could have sold my cracker shack in 1989, I’m sure as hell not alive 50 years later in 2038.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

This is better known as stubborn irrationality.

Great post.

"Nobody ever went broke from selling too early" - Bernard Baruch.

I do appreciate that Logan at least argued in good faith. That practice is becoming increasingly rare in the world.

Did anybody see Soros handing the gunmen a check?

Can you imagine how bad the casualty rate would have been if CA wasn’t the strictest gun state in the USA?

Fortwaynemobile says

if someone falls it ain’t my fault. insurance companies now sell using fear tactics

No, but if someone were to step in you house, and fell through the carpet into the basement, because you had a hole in the floor but just cosmetically covered it with carpet, I think most people would say you were negligent and should be held responsible, unless you warned the person.

But someone who trips on a normal rug and sues is a fucking dbag, and so are the people who allow such laws / legal environment to permit it. I hope not all states allow this, but I think at least some do.

Fortwaynemobile says

if someone falls it ain’t my fault

True, but, depending on where you live, a court may hit you with a $250k civil judgement. An umbrella plan is like pre-purchasing a team of lawyers who will get out front to protect the insurance company's $500k before you have to get involved. You're pre-purchasing a legal defense.

The same argument can be made about getting only minimum car liability insurance or getting heftier liability coverage. You could afford the $30k minimum required liability out of pocket, but you want the insurance company to fight for you if needed, so you get the $100k plan. Umbrella raises your car liability as well as home liability coverage, by the way.

As far as car comprehensive and collision, the maximum loss is limited to the car's book value. For me, I usually get the full coverage for the first 6 months and then drop. If I haven't crashed by then, I'm probably fine. It's not like the insurance company greatly lowers my premiums after the first 6 months. My current car is the only exception, as I feel the risk (of vandalism) is far greater than the insurance company estimates.

A 30% decline in the S&P 500 index fund VFINX takes us back to June 2020.

A 20% decline takes us back to November 2020.

DooDahMan says

No better in Florida.

I would go self insured in Florida, after hurricane proofing the house. I would not buy anyplace that would flood (and would have a crawlspace to make sure it doesn't get into the house as well).

DooDahMan says

unexpected things sometimes happen with pets

I have car insurance policy through Geico. Should I buy umbrella policy through Geico or find some other insurer?

It’s not fair to say what’s in the title of this thread without also pointing out what happened to Las Vegas just before that 10yrs.

Vegas was one of the hardest hit cities in the USA.

Las Vegas was waaaaay undervalued in 2012.

And yes prices will come down from where they currently are, at least in real terms.

As a former Nevada resident who "cashed-in" in this crazy market, you have to be careful with places like Vegas. In terms of volatility, Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Definitely a great time to sell, pretty much anywhere, at the moment.

Goran_K says

Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Why would you say that is?

Goran_K says

Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Why would you say that is?

zzyzzx says

I would not buy anyplace that would flood (and would have a crawlspace to make sure it doesn't get into the house as well).

In coastal Va, you cannot build in a flood zone unless the house is built to take 4 feet of water with NO damage. How this is done is typically having the garage under the house, constructed of block or poured. This does make a few steps to climb, though.

When I had rental property, I had a $1million umbrella policy that cost about $320 per year. The cost of the umbrella policy factors in lifestyle. For example, it will increase if you have a jet ski, or hobbies like skydiving. The umbrella policy will also require that you maintain certain minimum coverage on your home and auto policies.

Umbrella Insurance... For when you absolutely positively want to be fucked out of every cent you have.

Has anyone ever met someone that managed to successfully file a claim on an Umbrella insurance policy?

I've never met anyone that ever benefited from Gap Insurance.

Hircus says

No, but if someone were to step in you house, and fell through the carpet into the basement

The funny thing about Florida home insurance polices, that the banks require you to have on your home for the mortgage.
It covers all of the accidental stuff where people might sue you, but wont cover sink holes, meteor strikes, flood water damage unless you add flood insurance on your policy.

SunnyvaleCA says

True, but, depending on where you live, a court may hit you with a $250k civil judgement.

If someone came to my house and got injured due MY negligence, I would sell my house to make it right.
But if some opportunist came over and faked a slip and fall to sue me, and forced me to sell my house.
Let's just say that would be their last grift. I would be looking a gun not an insurance policy.
I'm not a gazilionare and work hard for what I do have. If I were rich and had lots of assets worth going after, I might view insurance differently.

My health insurance wanted and literally asked me to sue my neighbor when I fractured my heel on their property. No joke. They said their insurance would pay your deductible and all their costs.

I said, so you're asking me to fuck over my friends and neighbors who will pay a higher premium forever because I was playing a frisbee game with no shoes on? That's their fault? Told them to fuck off, I'm not doing that to friends when it was my fault. I probably lost $5k from that. It wasn't their fault though.

WineHorror1 says

Goran_K says

Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Why would you say that is?

I call Las Vegas a canary market. Speculators tend to enter and exit quickly to take advantage of the market, and there are "less" organic transactions from real owner occupant buyers (though that has increased as well). This tended to be the case due to low cost/easier market entry, and high chance of profit. Because of this, when the market swings one way, or the other, you tend to get easy appreciation, or lots of investors exiting causing depreciation as we saw in 2008-2013.

From 2001 to 2007, it's estimated that out of the $35 billion or so in real estate transactions, about 50% were investor initiated. I suspect when all is said and done, 2015 to 2022 is going to look very similar, if not more heavily stilted towards investor transactions.

Because of market conditions, some investors have turned from short term hold to long term hold to take advantage of the market appreciation over the past 5 years. But if appreciation begins to falter, or even stagnate, look for investors to start cashing in, and volatility to begin appearing again as it did in 2008. I won't call it a crash since the catalyst won't be a credit crunch, but I definitely see prices softening a lot once investors start to cash in.

They are going to engineer a housing market crash is my bet. Most people have most of their equity in homes, I think that's about to be wiped out, along with the stock market, at the same time. Biden might just be a fall guy for all this shit.

DooDahMan says

When he starts to change his tune, it is time to pay attention since he has a stellar track record on being right.

You got half of that right. Logan is like Dykstra. In a Bull market, everyone looks like an investment genius.

I see two categories of classic mistakes among those stories:

• People buying fixer-uppers that have no skills or experience in fixing things. Relatively minor problems instantly become expensive emergencies. For example, a constantly-flushing toilet means a call for a plumber because they don't know how to turn off the water and they don't know how to buy and install a $15 flapper valve.

• People who bought without carefully considering the neighborhood or neighbors. Buying a condo is always going to be a crap shoot with respect to the neighbors. People should visit the street at several different times of the day (and night) to get a feel for what living there would be like.

Tenpoundbass says

If someone came to my house and got injured due MY negligence, I would sell my house to make it right.
But if some opportunist came over and faked a slip and fall to sue me, and forced me to sell my house.
Let's just say that would be their last grift. I would be looking a gun not an insurance policy.

There's a lot of space between those two extremes. Plus, seems like a few hundred dollars a year is better than a murder #1 charge.

gabbar says

I have car insurance policy through Geico. Should I buy umbrella policy through Geico or find some other insurer?

You probably get a discount if you go with all one company. Also, since the coverage is somewhat overlapping (and the umbrella is contingent on the correct standard coverage), splitting between two different companies could cause the companies to point at each other for a claim and leave you in the lurch.

DooDahMan says

We didn’t hire a realtor,

If you already have a seller and buyer set up, there is NO need for a realtor.

SunnyvaleCA says

I see two categories of classic mistakes among those stories:

• People buying fixer-uppers that have no skills or experience in fixing things.

• People who bought without carefully considering the neighborhood

Sort of along your second category:

People who parachuted in buying a place in a city or region they never lived in, instead of renting for a year or so to get their own local knowledge and perspective.