patrick.net

Why not?
I think Xi is having second thoughts after seeing how badly the Russians are doing in their conquest of Ukraine.
There’s a joke that after the war NATO will try to join Ukraine.

clambo says

I think Xi is having second thoughts after seeing how badly the Russians are doing in their conquest of Ukraine.

I don't think China has the ability. Even if they did, they'd likely need to destroy the asset in the process. Ukraine to some extent makes sense. It's a pure land grab to get to shipping to the West. Taiwan would be nice from China's perspective, but they'd likely need to destroy it in the process. That seems like a losing proposition even if you take it over. I think China is smarter and doesn't "need" to take Taiwan. A physical war benefits no one, but who knows. When you run a country with little recourse you kind of get to do what you want.

We can't get committed to a land war in West Asia because we need to be committed to a land war in East Asia. Don't doubt for a second the Chinese will do their damnedest to get Kim to do something if they invade Taiwan, too.

AmericanKulak says

We can't get committed to a land war in West Asia because we need to be committed to a land war in East Asia. Don't doubt for a second the Chinese will do their damnedest to get Kim to do something if they invade Taiwan, too.

I know it's a theme, but I just don't see China doing it. They're watching Ukraine. Russia looks weak and like shit. Unless they create their own NATO so to speak with Russia and other countries, China would be foolish to try and take Taiwan.

What land war in Asia?

The Taiwan straight will be filled with Navy submarines ready to fuck up any Chinese armada, with planes and missiles in Taiwan shooting at the rookies flying the CCP aircraft.

Taiwan and the USA would make it too painful for Xi to invade.

clambo says

What land war in Asia?

The Taiwan straight will be filled with Navy submarines ready to fuck up any Chinese armada, with planes and missiles in Taiwan shooting at the rookies flying the CCP aircraft.

Taiwan and the USA would make it too painful for Xi to invade.

You know the US had a written agreement to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity, right? So, did the UK.

What makes anyone think that the paper we signed offering protection to Taiwan is of higher quality than the paper we signed for the Ukraine?

Do you really think that European militaries would come to help the US if China attacked our forces? --- Yep, NATO is garbage too.

It's hard to say. The Globalist necklace of biolabs extends to Taiwan, too, just like Khaz and Ukraine. Supposedly, China and India were the next targets for bio-obliteration after the Slavs. Taiwan is full of Mandarin disenfranchised aristocrats, who are dead determined to see the CCP burn in hell.

I can see how Russia's invasion of Ukraine is overturning the offshore deputized Globalist corruption of the West, but I'm not so sure it is as clear cut with Taiwan. Taiwan is a wealthy capitalist juggernaut that like Hong Kong, casts shame on the shortcomings of the mainland CCP. All of these nations are as sick of the Globalist filth as we are. They want to wash their hands of all the Illuminati plotting, murder, wars, Babylonian fiat debt slavery and rolling grandiose psychosis and lies.

Some speculators believe, however, that the CCP is on its way out. That could be why the Shanghai crackdown, a flailing move to assert control.

clambo says

I think Xi is having second thoughts after seeing how badly the Russians are doing in their conquest of Ukraine.

I would think Xi would see Russian weakness as an opportunity for China to take back territory annexed by the Soviet Union after WW2.

PeopleUnited says

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-warns-strong-measures-if-us-speaker-pelosi-visits-taiwan-2022-04-07/?source=patrick.net

Anyone advocating for arming training and supplying Ukraine should ask themselves if they want to start arming training and supply Taiwan as well. Is the west ready to fight two fake/proxy wars at once?

We already are arming, training and supplying Taiwan, HELLO! Have been doing that for a looooong time.

But I'd argue that China is having second thoughts now seeing how supposedly 2nd army in the world having trouble defeating world's 22nd army despite having no barriers like, you know, Formosa straight, to cross under fire. (PLA is supposedIy 3rd and Taiwan's army is at 21nd position). It's been what, almost two months of war, and still no landing operation in Odessa despite having a full control of the Black Sea? Oh, "we didn't plan it anyway?". OK, then, but with Taiwan not having a landing operation is not a fucking option, LOL.

Eric Holder says

It's been what, almost two months of war, and still no landing operation in Odessa despite having a full control of the Black Sea? Oh, "we didn't plan it anyway?".

They've been moving the LSTs back and forth to get the Ukrainians to keep forces in Odessa. We did the same in Korea to keep the enemy guessing as to the landing.

any war we get into is to fight for bullshit interests of the ruling class, no benefit for us Americans.

Eric Holder says

But I'd argue that China is having second thoughts now seeing how supposedly 2nd army in the world having trouble defeating world's 22nd army despite having no barriers like, you know, Formosa straight,

That "Formosa straight" can work for China as well. China could "quarantine" (blockade) the island for a long time before trying any beach landings. How long would Taiwan last when no ship or air traffic is allowed, especially if China bombs infrastructure during the blockade? I think China does not fear a loss with Taiwan, but more a fear of how Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam would act if Taiwan was attacked.

HeadSet says

That "Formosa straight" can work for China as well. China could "quarantine" (blockade) the island for a long time before trying any beach landings. How long would Taiwan last when no ship or air traffic is allowed, especially if China bombs infrastructure during the blockade? I think China does not fear a loss with Taiwan, but more a fear of how Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam would act if Taiwan was attacked.

There's no strategic reason for China to attack Twaiwan.

Provided Taiwan's government doesn't do something stupid like try to embarrass the ROC by saying "we are an independent country", or host (or reveal they are currently hosting) US nuclear weaponry, the situation will remain stable.

If Taiwan changes their status with regard to their relationship with the mainland, then, and only then, will there be a problem. I imagine some Neocunt fuckstick is working on this right now because chaos == profit.

AmericanKulak says

Eric Holder says

It's been what, almost two months of war, and still no landing operation in Odessa despite having a full control of the Black Sea? Oh, "we didn't plan it anyway?".

They've been moving the LSTs back and forth to get the Ukrainians to keep forces in Odessa. We did the same in Korea to keep the enemy guessing as to the landing.

They already lost one major landing ship and got two heavily damaged doing that, LOL. And now they also lost their fucking biggest warship in the Black Sea. With feints like that who needs battles, amirite?

And to add insult to the injury Erdogan has closed Bosporus straight for Russian Navy. So they will have to keep faking landings with what's left.

HeadSet says

Eric Holder says

But I'd argue that China is having second thoughts now seeing how supposedly 2nd army in the world having trouble defeating world's 22nd army despite having no barriers like, you know, Formosa straight,

That "Formosa straight" can work for China as well. China could "quarantine" (blockade) the island for a long time before trying any beach landings. How long would Taiwan last when no ship or air traffic is allowed, especially if China bombs infrastructure during the blockade? I think China does not fear a loss with Taiwan, but more a fear of how Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam would act if Taiwan was attacked.

Blockades don't conquer countries. Bombings don't conquer countries. You need boots on the ground which in this case means landing operation. Which has always been the most difficult type of military operation. The last successful one was when - 1950?

Taiwan has robust air defense force, much more capable (on paper) than Ukies had at the war's start and even the latter was capable of keeping Ukrainian skies contested for almost two month already.

And I don't think one can really starve a huge island by a simple maritime blockade. CCP's best bet, just like Putin's, would be a quick fait accompli kinda deal. I just don't see it happening.

clambo says

Why not?
I think Xi is having second thoughts after seeing how badly the Russians are doing in their conquest of Ukraine.
There’s a joke that after the war NATO will try to join Ukraine.

Yep. Ukraine now is doing as much for the rest of the world as it is doing for Ukraine.
A friend of mine is a Seinfeld buff. I told him that the current state of the Russian invasion into Ukraine reminds me of a Seinfeld moment. He thought it was the "Ukraine is not weak!" moment, but he was wrong. It was the "and you wanted be my latex salesman?!" moment - China is Jerry looking at George (Russia) who's laying on the floor in his underwear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVkGSoqSMBw&source=patrick.net