patrick.net

I am up there in the ranking, but I don't agree with the 4 percent figure. It depends on when you no longer require work to live without entirely frittering away your pile prematurely. I think that that figure reflects the 'advisors', in that they want people to maintain larger reserves because that is the way they make THEIR money. If you haven't noticed, the mavens always give you advice that tells you how to direct your money in ways that benefit THEM, not necessarily you. They also feed on fear and paranoia.

I would say pick a percentage that allows you to live on decent income until about 95 or so (being very optimistic since most people die before) with the pile being whittled down to nothing at that point (unless you are obsessed with leaving shit to your kids). At 95, you can sell whatever house and live on the dole for whatever years remain if you survive that long, having enjoyed the benefit of your previous wealth at that time. I would say figures closer to 5 or 6 percent depending on your age, investments and circumstances.

I think most people should retire as early as they can, and throw the results to fate. I also believe that the longevity statistics are heavily weighted towards artificially long lives. So many people croak before the ages that the authorities claim. 14 percent of men never live long enough to collect social security, which can start at 62. They give you a nice bonus in social security if you wait until 70, and that isn't because they think they are losing money on the deal, they know the actuarials favor your dying before you can realize the benefit of the delay.

Blue says

Ever since commie dictator Indira Khan came up with land ceiling of 25 ha and stole everything above and gave it to commie who made it idle

Same tactic used by Communists in 1917, took the private land of the Kulak farmers and nationalized it--the peasants didn't know how to raise crops and by 1921 while we were fat and happy in the US, the Soviets endured famine. Lenin didn't want to, but he finally relented and accepted food from the Capitalist dogs.

It is obvious (at least to me) that the vax does not work and is probably dangerous. By consenting to the vax we give up our bodily autonomy.

At what point is the government asking too much? It is already clear that if you give them a millimeter they will take a kilometer.

I am willing to give up my job if I am forced to choose between the experimental biologic agent or staying employed.

My body, my choice.

Rin says

And it was beaten up to a pulp

How do you know that there are not long term effects?

I noticed the IRS expects me to live just another 18.8 years.

I wonder if Transamerica uses the same number.

I too doubt the 4% rule but on the other hand I don’t know how much more I would like to spend.

The 4% rule assumes increases for inflation.

Wait, so I should take out 4% plus 7.8% this year?!? That’s a lot of dough.

The subject is both interesting and depressing; since my last parent died, I began to think about my own demise. What is worse is I’m actually planning for it by naming various beneficiaries to my accounts.

The problem is that as I have more money to have fun I also 1. Am becoming lazy 2. Am losing my ability to have fun. Shit like driving at night becomes difficult and I tend to avoid it, I get sore doing fun stuff, etc.
Goddammit.

Ceffer says

I think most people should retire as early as they can, and throw the results to fate. I also believe that the longevity statistics are heavily weighted towards artificially long lives. So many people croak before the ages that the authorities claim. 14 percent of men never live long enough to collect social security, which can start at 62. They give you a nice bonus in social security if you wait until 70, and that isn't because they think they are losing money on the deal, they know the actuarials favor your dying before you can realize the benefit of the delay.

Great points, something to always keep in mind.

clambo says

I too doubt the 4% rule but on the other hand I don’t know how much more I would like to spend.

The 4% rule assumes increases for inflation.

Wait, so I should take out 4% plus 7.8% this year?!? That’s a lot of dough.

Most of the times I heard the 4% rule it was for those who want their capital to have a good chance of never depleting, so if you live much longer than expected, or expect a very long retirement period, or wish to leave money to heirs, the big ball of money will still be there. The various fire calcs show that historically, it works most of the time. Those who are ok with the chance of running out of money before death and/or depleting the capital, should take out significantly more. Emphasis on this being based on historical data - if the future is more than a little different on one or more variables, then the expectations the results will hold are likely void.

btw inflation adjustment works like this:

if 4% means you got 40k last year, then the 7.8% inflation adjustment makes this year = 40 x 1.078 = $43.12k, so not much of an increase.

DooDahMan says

EdSurge

Which, being a publication for mostly Public School Educators, has a conclusion I can probably predict. Their lead article is "Teacher Trauma" written by an Educator of Educators, deep in the EduLobby.

DooDahMan says

co-hosted with the World Bank and the edtech investment firm Owl Ventures.

Case in point.

Oh noes, no vegetable and soy oils to saturate high caloric snack foods. We're in danger of losing obesity.

Most Olive Oil is tainted AF, too.

A modest pat of butter goes a long ass way. Goat Milk makes great soap. Goat shit makes great fertilizer because goats digest almost everything.

Be like (great-) grandma and save your bacon grease. Saute some asparagus in that and feel those little brushes sweep your intestines clean and balance out your insulin sensitivity.

What a bunch of shit.

Now I get it, of course.

I wonder which % is used to calculate Required Minimum Distributions (RMD).

They just raised the RMD age (excluding Roth) a bit.

Spent the summer of 78 in Salem SC, I lived in Jacksonville FL, friends of the family took me to SC to spend the Summer in their trailer way way way up in the woods on top of a foothill next to the mountains. I bailed hay, split wood, picked apples, peeled apples, spread them out on clean bed sheets in the sun to dry, tilled soil, worked the garden. Smoked my first Joint(the oldest son, 17 yrs old) Had a Bronco, would go palling around on trails with him and his friends. Lost my virginity to the daughter(13 yrs old) well she kind of raped me by today's standards. I left Jacksonville a little boy, came back a full blown Mountain man.

It's only as valuable as your aptitude and talent for the knowledge you gained.

ForcedTQ says

RWSGFY says

2 yrs worth of expenses in cash? Insane. Especially now.

Exactly, if you’re living correctly, 3-6 months emergency fund for expenses MAX. By that I mean you’ve paid off your debts, and are paying off your house or it is paid off.

With mortgage at 2.25% and inflation north of 8% why the fuck would I want to pay off my house now?

Tenpoundbass says

I managed number 5, I think 3 and 4 are out of order. I don't think anyone has any financial freedom as long as they have a huge chunk on a credit card.
Four really should be a nonstarter. As the whole point of 3 is making enough money to have a nest egg, and emergency funds. If you're making money and have the cash in the bank, you really shouldn't buy consumer hard goods on credit cards, unless you're only doing so to rack up the points, and you zero out the balance when you get the bill.

I've known people with $25K in credit card outstanding debt, they are one paycheck away from ruination.

Ruination from CC debt? How? It's literally the easiest type of debt to walk away from.

Tenpoundbass says

Spent the summer of 78 in Salem SC, I lived in Jacksonville FL, friends of the family took me to SC to spend the Summer in their trailer way way way up in the woods on top of a foothill next to the mountains. I bailed hay, split wood, picked apples, peeled apples, spread them out on clean bed sheets in the sun to dry, tilled soil, worked the garden. Smoked my first Joint(the oldest son, 17 yrs old) Had a Bronco, would go palling around on trails with him and his friends. Lost my virginity to the daughter(13 yrs old) well she kind of raped me by today's standards. I left Jacksonville a little boy, came back a full blown Mountain man.

I did something similar when I was 18. I went to live with my HS girlfriend and her family in Pennsylvania. I worked in a slate stone quarry. Damn hard work. Her father (he owned a logging business) kept me busy also. I washed cars, mowed lawns, changed oil, ran tons of errands etc. The girlfriend and I did find plenty of time for hanky party though. I'm still shocked my parents let me live there for the summer. It was the summer between my junior and senior year in HS. My parents started me late in school so I didn't graduate until I was 19. Don't judge.

Ruination from CC debt? How? It's literally the easiest type of debt to walk away from.

Or pay off. Seriously, $25k worth of debt can be easily eliminated with hard work and a little sacrifice. My brother declared bankruptcy on $18k worth of debt. All he had to do was stop eating out, buying new phones/electronics, and maybe get a weekend/night part time job and he would have erased it in a year.

4 isn't normal, your shit shouldn't be greasy, mushy and sticky, which those turds usually are. I mean it's normal that they happen, but if they persist, you've got bigger problems.

Oh I rode myself the fuck out of riding in the back of a pick up truck while we rode through the blue ridge mountains. Even waved at the Highway Patrol when ever I saw them.

Another way to look at the "4% rule" is "25 x expenses". They mean the same thing. It's easier for me to visualize the later. Others may prefer the percentage.

If your annual spend is $100k you will need $2.5 million in order to follow the 25x/ 4% rule. At that point you are probably safe to retire and let your money take care of you for once. There are outliers but the 4%/25x rules have been studied to death and they will work over 90% of the time through any 30 year period.

Don't forgot that, for most of us, we have more control over what we spend rather than what we earn. Get that annual spend down to $60k from $100k and you can shave a decade off the 'eating someone else's shit' phase of your life.

gabbar says

Love this idea. What do you mean by "remotely convenient to multiple potential employment sources"?

Try to live in a place where you can access 2-3 different cities with industries you're qualified in. In other words, pick a town within 30-45minutes of several other cities with some employment in your field. That way if an employer closes in one, you have at least one other employer nearby.

Try not to live in a place where the city you live next to is the only place of employment within any kind of reasonable commute distance.

gabbar says

What are examples of good debt?

Asset debt not liability debt. Debt that pays me instead of me paying it.

I drove my Grandpa's Oldsmobile on the Southern State Parkway, went on a two week hiking thing on the Appalachian trail, and with my $10 largess from mowing the lawn, pockets were overflowing with candy and Slurpees as I biked all over the neighborhood.

Then I got a tingle from watching Electric Blue with the descrambler and busted my first nut just before I turned 12. So good I fainted and hit my head on the john on my way down because my ding dong didn't know to switch from orgasm to pee mode or something.

Bitcoin says

great article by Logan M like always. without extremely higher inventory, dont expect house prices to fall. But a cool down, sure and see that already.

a lot of escrows falling apart due to rising rates, this i was told by realtor who wants is to sell asap.

“Soft landing” like in 2008 😁

Same shit, different decade

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

Bitcoin says

great article by Logan M like always. without extremely higher inventory, dont expect house prices to fall. But a cool down, sure and see that already.

a lot of escrows falling apart due to rising rates, this i was told by realtor who wants is to sell asap.

dont doubt it. heard the same. no surprise. but will it increase inventory significantly? If you dont have to sell, why would you give up your locked in rate at 2-3% and lock in a new rate at 5.5%?

#1 year for boomers turning 65 is this year.

Many are counting on selling that property for their retirement.

AmericanKulak says

#1 year for boomers turning 65 is this year.

Many are counting on selling that property for their retirement.

I have heard boomers are retiring and selling in droves for years now. Most boomers will stay put. Fixed income, inflation, higher rates....they will remain in their house until their last breath. They might take equity out to travel or pay for health care. Reverse mortgage is also an option.

Ukrainian cannon fodder fools should be raiding Kiev and hanging the murder puppets rather than fighting Russia. Even Boris Johnson, as great a bounding fool as Biden in his own way, publicly admitted Russia could be 'winning' in spite of all of the MSM fake propaganda to the contrary. Russia is going to cut off access to the Black Sea, at which point Kiev will have to bow even if not conquered. Most of the legitimate enterprise as well as much of the criminal enterprise of the corrupt state flow through the ports.

American armaments winding up in the hands of the opposition seem to be a thing these days with the toothless Biden administration. Maybe when those NATO and American advisors finally crawl out of the catacombs under the Mariupol steel plant, they can tutor the Russians on how to use them.

Bitcoin says

If you dont have to sell, why would you give up your locked in rate at 2-3% and lock in a new rate at 5.5%?

Income and payments, not about rates. Sure the rates change but if I make $50k more, interest rates don't much matter. If you can afford 10% interest on the home you're purchasing, rates will eventually drop and you can refi. Job security, income and monthly payments are the biggest factors, not rates. People get way too caught up with rates.

I agree home prices are stable. Loans are the most solid they've been since the crash. I'd track income and jobs at this point if one is concerned with housing prices. Even then a "crash" would maybe be 10% on the downside. As much as I don't like Biden, the economy is not as bad as it seems in some echo chambers. We'll hit the ceiling with inflation and people that need to will cut back. We'll see if that results in job losses given we're a service based country.

WookieMan says

We'll see if that results in job losses given we're a service based country.

I do wonder if any potential job losses will be in places like China, or if any potential US job losses will look more like less help wanted signs everywhere.

Bitcoin says

AmericanKulak says

#1 year for boomers turning 65 is this year.

Many are counting on selling that property for their retirement.

I have heard boomers are retiring and selling in droves for years now. Most boomers will stay put. Fixed income, inflation, higher rates....they will remain in their house until their last breath. They might take equity out to travel or pay for health care. Reverse mortgage is also an option.

If they are considering moving from Metro to rural area and possibly downsizing many of them can sell and buy with cash, no mortgage necessary. Rates will have little to no effect on them, other than perhaps giving them more inventory to choose from in their move to location. In CA prop 13 will have them either staying put if they are happy with their situation or moving their tax basis with them to their new property.

WookieMan says

Job security, income and monthly payments are the biggest factors, not rates. People get way too caught up with rates.

Rates impact monthly payments. Its simply math. Affordability in housing is way worse since rates have increased. Its all relative because it depends on the house price/area. I live in SoCal, so we are talking 1M+ in order to get something decent.

https://www.nahb.org/blog/2022/03/how-higher-interest-rates-affect-housing-affordability/?source=patrick.net

a decent home in my area is 1.2M

with 5.5% rates and 20% down your monthly nut is $7,017 (PITI), $5,451 is just principal and interest, rest is 1.1% Taxes, HOA $300 and insurance 2k/pa.
with 2.5% and the same DP, its $5,360 (PITI), $3,793 is just principal and interest, rest is 1.1% Taxes, HOA $300 and insurance 2k/pa.

People who could barely afford the 1.2M with 2.5% can no longer afford to buy at 5.5%.

"If you can afford 10% interest on the home" Rates are relative. Many buyers can afford 10% rates on a 200k house. Not many can afford 10% rates on a 1.2M house.

AmericanKulak says

gabbar says

Love this idea. What do you mean by "remotely convenient to multiple potential employment sources"?

Try to live in a place where you can access 2-3 different cities with industries you're qualified in. In other words, pick a town within 30-45minutes of several other cities with some employment in your field. That way if an employer closes in one, you have at least one other employer nearby.

Try not to live in a place where the city you live next to is the only place of employment within any kind of reasonable commute distance.

What do you think about buying a home so constructed that you can rent out a part of your home to a tenant or as a airbnb? How about buying a property that has apartment/home located above a business?

Another way to pay off credit card debt is to die.
It's an "unsecured debt" so they are stuck with the debt when you finally depart this world.

"You can't taper a Ponzi Scheme" - Max Keiser

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biggest-story-no-one-talking-about-why-albert-edwards-expects-something-market-about-snap?source=patrick.net

What's happening is SO much bigger than the housing market.

Bitcoin says

Rates impact monthly payments.

Wages impact monthly payments. If no one has money for the monthly payment, they don't spend as much. Go to the source of how you're able to spend money, your employment, business or investments. The interest rate should mean little knowing that it will likely go down again and you can refi. A 2% swing in rates is minor payment wise on a 30yr loan. That's what people buy.

And yes, a $2M house it would make a difference on the payment. Your average to even above average homeowners is usually living in something worth less that $500k. It's not a big deal if you play around with calculators. The loans aren't shit like they were in 2003-06.

I've said it before. Watch the lower end of the market. If the below median priced properties start spiking, then you should start worrying. People get too fixated on the top end or higher priced homes. If the "minions" are spending more on a house, it's concern time. People of above average means will always have no issue with housing prices/payment.

porkchopexpress says

What's happening is SO much bigger than the housing market.

sure, if you quote zerohedge.
Zerohedge is like: alien apocalypse combined with zombie outbreak daily.
The sky is just a continuous fall with Zerohedge.
Zerohedge is dangerous because it can lead to being too defensive (in cash) instead of investing in the market. You want money allocated to stocks, RE and crypto.

AmericanKulak says

Most Olive Oil is tainted AF, too.

I remember reading years back that Italy exports three times the amount of olive oil they produce. Like in The Godfather, it's an industry dominated by the mafia. That's why we only buy it from California, but mostly we use Avocado due to it's high temperature tolerance.