patrick.net

porkchopexpress says

It's not rocket science. Cheap money is inflating the currency which drives up asset prices. Pulling that away will slow/stop the inflation and drive down asset prices.

Yep, stock price being driven by cheap money such as stock buybacks. Its not mostly because of productivity gains.

.

Look at the etf "ARKK".

Top 10 holdings include Tesla, Zoom, Roku, Coinbase, Teladoc Health, and Twilio.

S&P 500 is down + 14% but a lot of the major tech companies like Tesla, Facebook, AMD, etc are down at least 30%.

Hindoo cult is trolled everyday for their pesky personality and criminal system.

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/us-news/connecticut-recognises-anniversary-of-declaration-of-sikh-independence-draws-backlash-articleshow.html?source=patrick.net
Provocation on Khalistan? | Connecticut 'recognizes' Anniversary Of Declaration Of Sikh Independence; Draws Backlash

Hindooo have problem(not just one but many) that Sikhs wherever move consider that country their own rather than their shithole Hindooo land occupying sikh nation.

https://twitter.com/VivekPatel_44/status/1520901816623411200?source=patrick.net
So This Is Reality of #Punjabi ( Khalistan ) living in America , They Don't Consider Themselves As Indians Any more I Think So because this guy In video means to say that people come from India china, & study in America and go back to their respective countries to develop it .

The only factor which may limit downside risk is the PE ratio. Its very low compared to 2000.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio?source=patrick.net

.

Hindoo super-power.
https://twitter.com/Nick95377890/status/1505748055261331458?source=patrick.net
et's talk about the real issue in hindu-stain! 🦠

"India is the most dangerous country for Women & Minorities in the World"
1/n
19 year old girl was brutally beaten by their family members.

ad says

The only factor which may limit downside risk is the PE ratio. Its very low compared to 2000.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio?source=patrick.net

.

The earnings part of the P/E ratio was elevated in 2021 because of all the "free" money governments were giving to their citizens. There was also plenty of cash-out re-fi's people were spending.

The GDP contracted about 1.4% during the 1st quarter and overall spending from the federal government is forecasted to be about $1.3 trillion less than last year. Cash-out re-fi's have gone down dramatically since interest rates went up. Europe is in a recession and China is a mess. It is difficult to increase earnings with the economies declining.

Inflation is also having an impact on profit margins they also are declining.

While it is possible for stocks to go up with declining earnings and increasing interest rates, it would be an anomaly.

Any idiot with half a brain knows the only thing propping up the 300% over inflated stock market across the board, is the millions of captive employees mentally entrapped to put a large chunk of their shitty pay into their 401K. There's a lot of those people about to go missing and fall off the map.
Companies have not been producing all of the value they claim, they keep growing because of all of the money thrown into the pool of capital they have, through people "Playing" the stock market and and going "any many, mini mo" when choosing an index fund for their 401K portfolio.
Those folks that have maintained their belief in hanging onto cash or saving money in the bank, are going to be smartest folks in the room.

I hope they lead the charge of America's next economic rebound, because that's what America needs, is sensible entrepreneurs hiring competent sensible people.
America is about to learn, not everyone is Warren Buffet, now get your asses back to work!

Just avoid the tech trannies and everything hip the big hedge fund "managers" have been buying. Then you'll be fine, plenty of value stocks out there

Tenpoundbass says

There's a lot of those people about to go missing and fall off the map.

How are they going to fall off the map?

Hindooo super-power of women beaters.
Look at all the posts by "Nick" on this threads.
Sikhs exposing brutal Hindooo cult filled with cruelty towards women.


https://twitter.com/Nick95377890/status/1505748406618234881?source=patrick.net
https://twitter.com/Nick95377890/status/1505748645626490880?source=patrick.net

DooDahMan says

FJB says

house prices are rapidly falling in Memphis TN

Stats? asking price reductions doesnt mean YoY or even QoQ is negative.....

The only reason it's going to update NY is all the subsidies, and the lack of good jobs there. That and the amount of water available. If NY wasn't such a bad place to run a business, they would have gotten a chip plant years ago.

Great. That backlog order for talking Real Dolls is going to disappear!

Happier times for the ex-Governor Cuomo Announces $1 Billion Public-Private Partnership with Cree Creating World's Largest Silicon Carbide Device Facility at the Marcy Nanocenter

FarmersWon says

https://www.vox.com/recode/23048906/chip-shortage-manufacturing-america-biden?source=patrick.net

America is trying to fix the chip shortage one factory at a time

A billion-dollar chip factory just opened in upstate New York. The Biden administration wants more.

It's already there. It's essentially a part of Global Foundries which is in Malta. It's up the road from I-90 (i.e. West) of Albany in basically Utica. This is just more PR bullshit of this administration, he didn't make it happen. There's been effort to secure semiconductor manufacturing in the United States for nearly a decade recognizing the supply chain weakness.

Different variety of dicks:

If I recall correctly, Trump got some Taiwanese semiconductor maker to promise to open a plant in the US.

DooDahMan says

FarmersWon says

America is trying to fix the chip shortage one factory at a time

Not going to catch up with the competition, we are too far behind but we can still build really spiffy Space Ship like buildings in Cupertino and lots and lots of APPs so there is that at least.

I think US will do well. I want to see some crash in dollar to keep manufacturing competitive.

https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/15/22978954/intel-semiconductor-manufacturing-hub-germany-fab-europe-investment?source=patrick.net
https://spectrum.ieee.org/intel-ohio-fab?source=patrick.net
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-will-reportedly-move-equipment-into-arizonas-fab21-in-q1-2023?source=patrick.net
...

DooDahMan says

We won't do well enough and it should not take a crash in the dollar to do so. This country used to lead - now we follow and may soon be getting out of the way as well.

Other countries are busy producing tangible things - we produce unique shaped buildings and apps. Much like the auto industry in this country, the steel industry and so many others we are a few days late and several dollars short to the party - again.

No - the problem is not them - it is us. We had/have the technology but chose/choose not to invest and upgrade our own facilities but more than happy to sell that technology to someone else and then complain when someone beats us at our game.

If you have not figured this all out - Corporate Greed, lots and lots of greed and bought off elected officials.

You either lead, follow or get out of the way....

This is pessimistic view. Germany is only one which does better but China not.
China is huge waste in terms of tangible things they build. US is better off to build nothing.
They wasted building $1T dollars on fast trains to nowhere. China used more concrete in few years than whole human civilization used in their existence.
The disrepair,pollution and concretes eyesore will destroy them along with huge debts they took to do so.

US is in bad shape , But It can come out quickly if we have weak dollar and right leadership. Talent is already here and well trained.

Sounds pretty shitty.

DooDahMan says

"Tenant screening reports play a real role in tenants' ability to secure stable housing. They can impact consumers in terms of financial costs, fewer rental housing options and time," said Sophie Sahaf of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. "(The result can be) they're getting substandard housing, they're in a ZIP code they don’t want to be in, even homelessness."

As a former landlord, sad excuse. Most bad tenants don't get an eviction or credit ding. Landlord gets/buys them out. Tenants have no skin in the game. I don't feel bad for tenants. Let me know when a tenant feels bad for me when taxes and insurance are increased. Or I have to drop in a new water heater or furnace. Creature comforts are nice when you don't pay for them. Buy a house if you don't want to be screened. And if you choose to be a renter, fine. Don't bitch about the screening process. You chose that path. And I'm not saying "you" specifically, just tenants in general.

"Should we give it to Biden?"

From the article:

New York officials spent decades trying to attract a semiconductor company to Marcy, where New York state has funded a nanocenter associated with the SUNY Polytechnic Institute. Wolfspeed only agreed to take over the site after another company backed out and New York offered to subsidize the fab with a $500 million grant

• that plant has been bouncing around for decades.
• enormous bribe from New York state
• current fears about Taiwan

I guess you could say the fears about Taiwan were greatly heightened from Biden's weak global leadership, so he can claim some credit. That is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Biden, though. Chalk up another one for: Biden runs out in front of an existing parade and pretend to be leading it.

Germany/Japan/South Korea are kings of advance manufacturing.
https://www.npr.org/2018/01/03/572901119/how-germany-wins-at-manufacturing-for-now?source=patrick.net

China is king of waste and wasteful building. China won't be able to afford repair of wasteful buildings or other infrastructure.
Wasteful high speed trains, China freight trains begging for money and attention,causing trucking to expans as Freight trains are insufficient..while high speed rains running empty.
https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/high-speed-money-sink-why-united-states-should-not-spend-trillions-obsolete?source=patrick.net#case-against-high-speed-rail
Ghost towns:
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10?source=patrick.net

https://techstartups.com/2021/11/13/chinas-high-speed-rail-envy-world-worlds-longest-high-speed-railway-network-now-losing-24-million-per-day-reported-debt-1-8-trillion/?source=patrick.net
China’s High-Speed Rail, the world’s longest high-speed railway network, is now losing $24 million per day with a reported debt of $1.8 trillion
........
........
Since then, new HSR lines in China have witnessed a sharp decline in their “transportation density,” which is measured in passenger-kilometers or number of passengers carried per day. “It is an indicator that projects the line’s operating efficiency in terms of annual average transport volume per kilometer.” For example, China’s overall transportation density of HSR was 17 million passenger-kilometres in 2015, while it was 34 million passenger-kilometres for Japan’s Shinkansen in the same year.

Love that news! I am planning on adding to my rental portfolio and anything that helps to weed out the bad ones is highly welcome.
People think that "we just need a crash to afford a house" are dreaming......the US future is simply: an army of renters and landlords who get richer and richer. I play the game because I am on the right side of the fence.

This is why you value your privacy. These systems wouldn't pull up anything useful on me, but I also wouldn't submit to any ridiculous facial scans. Anyone doing this stuff is a sucker. I rented in Phoenix. Found exactly what I wanted, despite the RE guy paid to show us properties telling me I had to pay more for a pool. Landlord was a sweet old lady who lived down the street. Process was the same as everywhere else I've ever lived.

More fear porn, take from a lifelong renter in SoCal who still pays well under market.

WookieMan says

Tenants have no skin in the game.

Try owning in California, they let us run wild here. You can be a crack addict, still have to hire a lawyer to evict, and can't shut off utilities in the meantime. Having said that, if owners knew how to find and appreciate good tenants, many do, but ran into our share who don't, they'd be much happier, less stressed, and wealthier. Landlords should focus on really digging into job history, and references. Those are way more valuable than credit scores will ever be. And I mean personally visiting these places and people. Yes, it's a time investment, but there's a lot at stake, so definitely worth it if it nets you a reliable long-term tenant.

Logan is so spot on with his stuff

market (mortage rates) got ahead of the ten years. Rates going forward will depend on if the FED keeps raising rates as the market expects (priced in already) and if inflation increases.

6 recession flags watch:
Not checked yet > durable goods purchasing / retail spending
Not checked yet > falling LEI for 4-6month
Not checked yet > Housing starts fall
check > yield inversion
check > fed rates hikes
check > unemployment rate

https://loganmohtashami.com/2019/10/15/recession-flag-watch-update/?source=patrick.net

Owning is better than renting, leverage and owning is better when invested properly.

NuttBoxer says

take from a lifelong renter in SoCal who still pays well under market.

well under market? area, sqft, type of structure (apartment/SFH)? monthly rent?

renting long term in places like SoCoal is financial suicide. Lifelong??? cheez, you know how much equity you would have if you would have bought. Ever heard of opportunity costs?

I was in the same boat as Nuttboxer for many years, and I enjoyed the best of all worlds, however I was very lucky.
My saving grace was investing in stock mutual funds while my friends had mortgages.
I was in an historic district in Santa Cruz within walking distance to the beach and the downtown, so I could go for days without driving.
For years I even had a roommate from the university and my net housing cost was around $300/month.
The house next door was bought by a guy who works at Google and he paid $1.6 million 5 years ago.
See the stock market returns for the last 30 years and $12,000/year investment and you will have an idea.
Covid ended my party; the owner was cooped up with his daughter and her boyfriend and they didn’t like the arrangement, so she and boyfriend got the place and I was bounced out.
It was great while it lasted.
Prince Harry post rides again.

clambo says

Covid ended my party; the owner was cooped up with his daughter and her boyfriend and they didn’t like the arrangement, so she and boyfriend got the place and I was bounced out.

Wait....you never bought a house in your life?!

I have not bought a house in my life.
I came extremely close to buying a place in Jupiter Florida, but I was assured by the Santa Cruz owner he wanted me to stay in the Santa Cruz place, so I didn’t buy it.

My case illustrates the advantage of owning; you control your destiny, and are not moving out at the whim of the owner.

I have decided to live closer to California (Baja) but be a legal resident of Florida.

Edit
I was going to buy a place in Florida anyway, but after my net worth dipped 15% while the inventory of houses was low, I decided to forget about it for the present.
Edit 2
I told my friend that she was the beneficiary of a couple of my accounts. I took screenshots of the stuff to prove it.
She now wants to put me on the title of her house for free 😉
I’m not sure what the advantages are but it won’t hurt me either.

https://twitter.com/anparrh/status/1521708514271395840?source=patrick.net
How can someone else insult you (PoopIndia) bunch of morons when you yourselves are more than enough. Need more evidence?

clambo says

my net worth dipped 15%

Man, sounds like one "high maintenance" ex...

is there a full copy at NSA somewhere?

CA rentals will soon perhaps come with hate soeech clause allowing landlords to cancel contract if tenant uses gendered language or “hate speech”? come on guys, gotta clown world all the way.

Headset, I think an ex would cost 50%, don’t they?
Edit
Tangential to the subject, not owning a house is a sure way to deflect women being too serious about you; this can be a blessing or a curse, depending on how comfortable you are constantly seeking out new female companionship.

clambo says

I have not bought a house in my life.

thanks for sharing! Whatever works