patrick.net

Eman says

Interesting investors didn’t slow down in buying properties through the housing bust, and they bought more through the 2010’s.

a lot of the investors back in 2009 to 2013 were sharks or bottom feeders...buying for $110,000 a townhome that sold for $275,000 three or four years prior ....

this time around the investors likely used stock market and/or crypto gains, as well as the equity from their homes, to buy second homes to rent out on Air nB, or to rent out long term .... i wonder what percentage of homes bought by investors were made with equity in their other homes ....

...

Hold my beer!

Take this place in pseudo-fortress 95138 in San Jose asking 1.7mil...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/7398-Basking-Ridge-Ave-95138/home/12178639

Looks like a nice place, but super tiny lot. This is also the house where there was a rotting orange in the driveway during the open house. The even more rotted orange has now oozed to the curb area. Apparently picking up rotting fruit from the property is not a modern realtor's job.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-listings-surge-ease-inventory-shortage

Home listings surge as rising mortgage rates push some buyers to sidelines

Homeowners thinking about listing their properties need to be aware of the new competition in the housing market, and keep tabs on local pricing trends. "They need to make sure the asking price doesn't get too high, or too high ahead of the market," Hale said.

Just looked up my house on Zillow, it dropped 5% in 1 month. Good (since it's not just my house but rather a reflection of market conditions). I look forward to correction.

Booger says

Sounds like the squatters will win this one.

exfatguy says

Take this place in pseudo-fortress 95138 in San Jose asking 1.7mil...
Looks like a nice place, but super tiny lot

Ex, do you live in that development?

zzyzzx ,

I copied and pasted below the Zillow link for the above home. They must be in a rush to get out of their cash investment before they lose at least 10% of their equity.

The same home sold for $432,000 in 2013, and for $288,000 in 2001. It should be about $800,000 based on a 5% annual price appreciation since 2001.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1598-Bluebell-Dr-Livermore-CA-94551/24940718_zpid/

AD

https://news.postuszero.com/local/87082/Utah-home-flipped-for-1-million-profit-vandalized-by-outraged-local.html

An angry local defaced a Utah home that an investor flipped for $1 million more than they paid 8 months before

ad says

zzyzzx ,

I copied and pasted below the Zillow link for the above home. They must be in a rush to get out of their cash investment before they lose at least 10% of their equity.

The same home sold for $432,000 in 2013, and for $288,000 in 2001. It should be about $800,000 based on a 5% annual price appreciation since 2001.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1598-Bluebell-Dr-Livermore-CA-94551/24940718_zpid/

AD

I think California specifically the Bay Area is going to crash harder than most parts of the state because of the losses to migration and property tax burden. I need to grab some more popcorn!

Not enough vs too many! Irrespective of which one is true, gov has clear roll to affect on the problem of this magnitude in a short period.

How are there too many homes, the buyer still has little decent inventory to choose from and the good books have been swept up by companies to be rented out forever. Inventory is still very low, but it's definitely higher than the crazy past couple years where the was zero in certain zip codes for months.

Booger says

😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫

I use this frequently, when pointing out a bullshit excuse - "Too many notes."

This is a great line from the movie "Amadeus" where the establishment musicians were trying to shut WAM down. The consensus was "too many notes" in his music, and when he asked which ones should be cut, they simply reiterated their criticism.

So now, "too many houses."

Why do they even trot out these laughable pieces of bullshit? They're daring us to call them out because they think we're utter stupid simps.

stereotomy says

I use this frequently, when pointing out a bullshit excuse - "Too many notes."

This is a great line from the movie "Amadeus" where the establishment musicians were trying to shut WAM down. The consensus was "too many notes" in his music, and when he asked which ones should be cut, they simply reiterated their criticism.

So now, "too many houses."

Why do they even trot out these laughable pieces of bullshit? They're daring us to call them out because they think we're utter stupid simps.

The reason there are hardly ever too many houses is unfettered (illegal) immigration and builders not building when the math isn't right, esp. with high inflation in cost of goods.

Booger says

Booger, so given demographics, etc, there will be a glut or oversupply of homes ? What housing markets does this apply to ? I would expect California as one example of this as its population only grew no more than 5% in 2010 to 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/-tight-housing-market-is-already-overbuilt-one-analyst-says.html

.

.

The best way is to not build anymore new homes in states like Connecticut and California, and build a steady supply in states like Florida and Arizona.

So the net number of houses within the USA increases 0.5% to 1% each year in line with the population increase.

.

There seems to be a boom in Baja California Sur.
15 years ago I saw houses around here for $30,000.

I remember a 2 bedroom, 2 bath on Panama City Beach, FL costing about $1200 a month in 2016. Now with incentives like the first month free, they cost about $1800. So rent went up about $600 or 50% in 6 years (or 7% annually).

Below is one new "luxury" apartment complex (vinyl plank floor, quartz countertop, pool, gym clubhouse, gated community, storm water retention pond with water fountain, etc.) which is offering 1 month free. The listed price is before the discount.

;



,

Checked on Zillow yesterday for San Diego County. Places for sale further out in Julian, Borrego Springs, Campo are all dropping anywhere from $10-50k, during peak summer sales time. Top is gone, and the bottom is fast approaching.

HunterTits says

https://patrick.net/post/1346441/2022-07-01-first-guaranty-mortgage-files-for#last

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/07/01/housing-bubble-getting-ready-to-pop-pending-sales-plunge-in-june-homes-listed-for-sale-jump-price-reductions-spike-amid-holy-moly-mortgage-rates/
@HunterTits...I'll go with crash in the Bay Area if I have to pick one.

SF & SJ are up 34+% in inventory YoY changed my mind.

Bay area cities have been on a decline for a while because they have become mostly shitholes, though there are a few nice hoods left. So the people have been fleeing to the country which they have been bidding up. SF is in trouble also commercial RE wise.

HunterTits says

ad says

Booger, so given demographics, etc, there will be a glut or oversupply of homes ? What housing markets does this apply to ? I would expect California as one example of this as its population only grew no more than 5% in 2010 to 2020.

Ppl are fixated on how not enough homes have been built...but these past 16 month or so about 2 million have been in various stages of construction.

Again, the effects will apply per local housing market.

Boise is a damn fine example right now.

?
What do you mean? Boise is going to crash...there is a ton of land out there just like Colorado Springs and Denver. Also pandemic forbearance are done with so more houses will be coming on the market.

Booger says

I wonder why the drop in price after buying it so recently.

Wow! that is 1/3 down in 3 mo. so far. Pending does not means final to buy. Which city is it. I observed a house around pulled from the market but not in private. The sale sign is still there and occasionally buyers are visiting.

this is the house that Booger is referencing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17480-Madison-Ave-Castro-Valley-CA-94546/24915981_zpid/

ad says

this is the house that Booger is referencing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17480-Madison-Ave-Castro-Valley-CA-94546/24915981_zpid/

They built this house in the middle of a big swale. The retaining wall in the backyard was half-ass built. Look at the slopes around the house. This house will be a pond when it rains. All the water will run towards the house. 🤦🏻‍♂️

1337irr says

I wonder why the drop in price after buying it so recently

They probably asked too much to begin with.

ad says

this is the house that Booger is referencing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17480-Madison-Ave-Castro-Valley-CA-94546/24915981_zpid/

House should be bulldozed

Booger says

1337irr says

I wonder why the drop in price after buying it so recently

They probably asked too much to begin with.

They just increased the price by $45K.

ad says

this is the house that Booger is referencing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17480-Madison-Ave-Castro-Valley-CA-94546/24915981_zpid/

Lots to unpack here.

Castro Valley is one of the densest, most populated unincorporated areas around. Because there is no municipality, there is no police, no fire, and no city permitting, - so no city building codes. Maybe this house would be permitted within a municipality, maybe not. Who knows? Residents rely on Alameda County sheriff and Alameda County Fire, resources they share with Oak-Town, for safety and fire protection.

As E-man pointed out about the topography, the site is prone to flooding. We're in a drought now, but we can also get torrents of rain and flooding. It's as sure to happen as drought. With torrential rain come mudslides. Hillside homes are lost to mudslides all the time.

The parcel is at the edge of a wooded area on the East Bay Hills. Fire is a natural part of the environment. The native Oak Trees that come right up to the house are adapted to fire, unlike the housing we humans make that encroaches into natural fire zones.

Did the earlier pending sale fall through because the buyer could not get fire insurance? I wonder.