patrick.net

pudil says

Are we having record inflation or not? Please explain how housing prices are going to drop while everything else is going up 10%+ yoy.

It's a reversion to the mean. Austin will revert back to the mean increase.

Home values in Austin have increased by 29.4% over the last year. Over the past five years home values in Austin have increased by 99%. Median sales price for a home in Austin is $550,000 based on the most recent report from the Austin Board of Realtors.

The Austin market is the biggest market for flippers and the government/FED at the moment is not subsidizing them as much. Increasing interest rates, takes away the house price increases. 20% of all transactions in the last year were speculators.

"You cannot subsidize irresponsibility and expect people to become more responsible."
- Thomas Sowell

Does that make sense pudil?

I should note, I'm carrying a chip on my shoulder, I should've bought in Austin earlier. However, I did buy in the Waco-area.

A few years back I talked to a mortgage loan officer. At that time we had more than 100k sitting in our checking account and it was in an increasing trend. She said the reason we have this cash in our account was because we live like students. That is, even after we graduated from school and got jobs, we continued to live like students.

What's the mortgage debt about? Is it about keeping the population running on an job treadmill? Is it about a method of preventing mass chaos? Is it about maintaining power status quo? We talk about freedom but seems to me the most important freedom is fiscal freedom.

WookieMan says

You have to be an unethical dick to work in RE and I couldn't do it anymore.

I agree. Is this because agents work only on commission (no salary at all)? They don't eat if they don't kill. And they kill using any means necessary. An ethical real estate agent will soon leave real estate business. In fact, I met a young real estate agent who pretty much told me this.

pudil says

Are we having record inflation or not? Please explain how housing prices are going to drop while everything else is going up 10%+ yoy.

Housing prices are tied to wages, not inflation.

Booger says

pudil says

Are we having record inflation or not? Please explain how housing prices are going to drop while everything else is going up 10%+ yoy.

Housing prices are tied to wages, not inflation.

I would also say house prices are strongly correlated to wages and net wealth.

gabbar says

A few years back I talked to a mortgage loan officer. At that time we had more than 100k sitting in our checking account and it was in an increasing trend. She said the reason we have this cash in our account was because we live like students. That is, even after we graduated from school and got jobs, we continued to live like students.

What's the mortgage debt about? Is it about keeping the population running on an job treadmill? Is it about a method of preventing mass chaos? Is it about maintaining power status quo? We talk about freedom but seems to me the most important freedom is fiscal freedom.

There is NO FREEDOM without economic freedom. Unpossible.

Quick flip RIP.

Date Jul 21, 2022
Price Changed
Price $765,000

Date Jul 7, 2022
Price Changed
Price $775,000

Date Jun 16, 2022
Price Changed
Price $798,000

Date Jun 2, 2022
Price Changed
Price $820,000

Date May 19, 2022
Listed (Active)
Price $825,000

Date Oct 19, 2021
Sold (MLS) (Closed)
Price $389,000

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Quick flip RIP.

Date Jul 21, 2022
Price Changed
Price $765,000

Date Jul 7, 2022
Price Changed
Price $775,000

Date Jun 16, 2022
Price Changed
Price $798,000

Date Jun 2, 2022
Price Changed
Price $820,000

Date May 19, 2022
Listed (Active)
Price $825,000

Date Oct 19, 2021
Sold (MLS) (Closed)
Price $389,000

How is it a RIP?

1337irr says

How is it a RIP?

Rhymed with flip. But I doubt if the fliiper put in 112% of the price of the purchase in upgrades when the flip was listed a scant 7 months after purchase, even accounting for a possible increase in average market price, which is no longer a given. Perhaps I should have listed this under the Pigotry post.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

You have to be an unethical dick to work in RE and I couldn't do it anymore.

I agree. Is this because agents work only on commission (no salary at all)? They don't eat if they don't kill. And they kill using any means necessary. An ethical real estate agent will soon leave real estate business. In fact, I met a young real estate agent who pretty much told me this.

I was salaried and didn't do the sales part myself. I was marketing, accounting, broker support, basic tech, etc. Basically managed the office and the overall business. Generally didn't deal with clients one on one outside of shooting photos or talking/texting them for showings.

Dealing with people that don't know when the next check is coming was miserable. I made solid money for my age, but there are way to many hands in the cookie jar in real estate. New agents rolling up in Tesla after I'd been doing ALL parts of the business for 10 years, I'd just start telling them to fuck off. I became a massive ass hole in the latter years I was there. I'd get in screaming matches with inspectors, attorneys, brokers, etc. Everyone in the industry waits until the last second and it then becomes a problem that was solvable weeks ago.

I also hate the brag part of brokers. "I sold $10M last year." You'd be lucky to walk with $100-120k net if you don't own the brokerage. Big fucking deal. To be wealthy as a broker today you'd need to sell $20M+ and own the brokerage. 80% of agents, even with higher prices are lucky to sell $2-5M, which is $50-70k/yr net. Hence the reason Realtors are so shady. It's a shitty living unless you're super social and click with everyone you meet and aren't a tool. That's all there really is to it. Sales 101.

Most people don't have it and flop when they get their license. Most brokers also cannot deal with emotions. You're kind of a therapist in guiding someone to the largest purchase in their lives with most transactions. It's why commercial RE is much more ideal. No emotions. Business deal. Numbers.

Anecdotal: I parse har.com (TX RE listings) and look at land (40+ acres). Half a year ago, nearly everything that went up for sale was snatched up in days or weeks. Now there are much fewer pending sales.

Booger says

Hopefully he got something good...

I think rising natural gas prices are going to make more sellers soon. It is $8.29 a mmBTU. They will reach $20/mmBTU soon enough.

WookieMan says

I also hate the brag part of brokers. "I sold $10M last year." You'd be lucky to walk with $100-120k net if you don't own the brokerage. Big fucking deal. To be wealthy as a broker today you'd need to sell $20M+ and own the brokerage. 80% of agents, even with higher prices are lucky to sell $2-5M, which is $50-70k/yr net. Hence the reason Realtors are so shady. It's a shitty living unless you're super social and click with everyone you meet and aren't a tool. That's all there really is to it. Sales 101.

The commonly used real estate sale agreement/contract provided and used by realtors in Ohio is shit, shittier than shit. It is designed to give the agents the controlling hand. And you are right, agents are shady, probably worse than used car salesmen. And the government colludes with real estate agents in making policies that favor the industry and place the buyers and sellers at a disadvantage.

Glad that you were able to get away from a job that you didn't like.

https://notthebee.com/article/home-sales-have-been-declining-for-nearly-half-a-year-straight-so-yeah-i-think-the-insane-housing-market-is-finally-cooling-off

Pre-owned home sales drop for the 5th straight month as buyers finally surrender to this insane economy

Silly question. When we call a house a single family home, does it mean that only one family should or is legally allowed to live there?

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/local/homeless/north-portland-makeshift-homeless-village-rent-businesses/283-4e0aa5a5-fa46-4bbb-9704-7ac1a7c6d5a3

North Portland homeless encampment charges rent for houseless people to stay

gabbar says

Silly question. When we call a house a single family home, does it mean that only one family should or is legally allowed to live there?

Designed for single family use. Can be used otherwise, just like a screwdriver does not only have to be used to drive screws.

HeadSet says

Designed for single family use. Can be used otherwise, just like a screwdriver does not only have to be used to drive screws.

Yeah but, if you use them properly you can unscrew things.

'Grace's Oasis' homeless camp. What could possibly go wrong? Most homeless camps achieving size eventually burn down do to people not safely using heating, cooking, or just passing out with lit pipes, cigarettes etc.

HeadSet says

Designed for single family use. Can be used otherwise, just like a screwdriver does not only have to be used to drive screws.

So its lawful for more than 1 family to live in a single family house? Do laws prohibit renting out of a single family home in such a way that the owner and an another family lives in a single family home? Do laws specifically prohibit single family homes to be used for business purposes? I know that Asian businesses use their stores as a part time or full time residence. They convert the back of the store to an efficiency apartment like space.

gabbar says

So its lawful for more than 1 family to live in a single family house?

Yes, although some localities limit the number of unrelated people who can leave in a single-family dwelling. Prince Willaim County, Va tried to make that limit 12, but even that generous number was struck down by a court.

gabbar says

Do laws specifically prohibit single family homes to be used for business purposes?

That would be zoning laws. Residential zoned houses are not supposed to be used for commercial purposes.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/w89voz/i_backed_out_of_builder_contract_made_a_low_offer/

I Backed Out of Builder Contract. Made a Low Offer on Another Home and Got It Accepted.
I was in contract with a builder for a 500K home in April. There were already some issues with this builder that made me want to cancel. After reading this forum everyday for the past 3 months and my own research on the current market, I decided to cancel. I tried everything I can, including pleading with the builder to give me back half of the deposit. At the end, I lost the full deposit of 15K. It sucked, but I knew it was the right decision.

Yesterday, I made an offer on a home that was just completed by another builder. Similar build, but better location, better community amenities, and better priced. This is near Indianapolis. Asking price was 386K. I offered 370k and asked to throw in a new fridge. Seller countered at 374K. I accepted. So yes, the housing market price is going down and you can make a lower than asking offer. This home was back on market after the previous buyer backed out. There are quite a few new builds that I see back on the market in the area. Yes it confirms that builders are having more contracts being canceled.

What I learned from this experience is:

1). Don't ever buy from a national builder because their contract is made to protect them and only them. I had no choice because my husband only liked new construction homes.

2). Don't ever use a realtor. My realtor kept telling me to not give lower than asking offers. She was annoyed that I made low ball offers at several homes. When she realized that I was canceling a 500K home to look at homes under 400K, she tried hard to convince me that other homes have low re-sell values and other flaws.

3). If you can subscribe to a legal plan, do it. My husband's employer offered a discounted legal plan (through a major life insurance company). He can pay about $8 a month and get access to most lawyer services for free, which include real estate contracts. I only found out about this recently and I will be using this in the future if I need to. No need for useless realtors.

zzyzzx says

Don't ever use a realtor. My realtor kept telling me to not give lower than asking offers. She was annoyed that I made low ball offers at several homes. When she realized that I was canceling a 500K home to look at homes under 400K, she tried hard to convince me that other homes have low re-sell values and other flaws.

Buyer's agents don't work for the home buyer (irrespective of what they say). They work for themselves first and are strongly aligned to the seller. Their goal is their commission.

zzyzzx says

Don't ever buy from a national builder because their contract is made to protect them and only them.

All contracts will be written to protect the builder.

zzyzzx says

I just looked up this listing. Something is amiss. They dropped the price by $350,000?

https://nypost.com/2022/07/26/us-home-prices-to-plunge-substantially-on-cratering-demand/

WineHorror1 says

zzyzzx says

I just looked up this listing. Something is amiss. They dropped the price by $350,000?

Fat finger typing problem?

WineHorror1 says

They dropped the price by $350,000?

Motivated seller?

WineHorror1 says

I just looked up this listing. Something is amiss. They dropped the price by $350,000?

May have been repossessed by the bank and the bank is doing some insider trading selling it below value at the expense of all the equity the previous owners put up. Saw it all the time in 2008 in Silly Con Valley.

richwicks says

WineHorror1 says

I just looked up this listing. Something is amiss. They dropped the price by $350,000?

May have been repossessed by the bank and the bank is doing some insider trading selling it below value at the expense of all the equity the previous owners put up. Saw it all the time in 2008 in Silly Con Valley.

How is that insider trading if it's for sale to the general public?

.

https://nypost.com/2022/07/26/us-home-prices-to-plunge-substantially-on-cratering-demand/

The article says prices are overpriced by about 20% based on affordability. That coincides with the 30 year mortgage rate going up about 2% to 5.5%.

I remember my mortgage broker telling me every 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate means a 10% drop in price based on affordability.

A 20% drop in home prices will wipe out most of the COVID pandemic gains.

.

I know he was driven off the site but I still like listening to Logan Mitsubishi (don't care enough to look up the spelling of his last name). He says that there will be no "housing crash" in the sense of prices dropping through the floor unless/ until there is normal inventory. Keep in mind that Millennials outnumber boomers and there's an even larger cohort coming right behind them (Z). It's demographics baby.

He called the moderation in price increases before the fed started hiking and views higher mortgage rates as absolutely necessary and good to get the system back in balance. Note that his idea of a healthy market is a predictable/ stable amount of business YOY - his reference is "the industry" and not buyers and sellers. He thinks the current market with the huge increase in prices as unsustainable and unhealthy.

He still thinks this is nothing like 2005-2008 because buyers balance statements are hella strong and there won't be any credit default driven increase in inventory. Keep in mind that despite the hysteria, home prices are not falling (again, all real estate is local) - they are simply moderating from 15%YOY increase to 3%YOY increase.

So yeah for now I'm drinking his kool-aid.

We'll see. If the labor market stays strong I think he's right (prices stabilize but there is no precipitous drop). However if people start losing jobs then we may have a credit default situation, and in a hurry.

1337irr says

Fat finger typing problem?

100%. I'll admit I've fucked up and done the same putting listings in MLS. That's the problem with IDX system of sending out listing info to 3rd party sites. You can't correct the mistake on all the other sites. I could call the MLS/association and have them update the database to fix the original price that other realtors see. But I can't call 1,000 other sites and fix the mistake. You HAVE to be 100% careful entering the price. It could tarnish the value potentially for a decade. Like "why did they cut it $300k in 2017" and the buyer gets concern.

I miss not having my MLS access as I just let my license lapse, but it was approaching $2K year and I wasn't gaining anything from it. I also no longer have legal consequences with real estate buying and selling. I can be shady within normal consumer laws now. Basically I can buy straight from other owners and not disclose I'm a RE agent (required by law in most states). I'll also never need a realtor again either. I got my PhD in the business basically.

stfu mentions RE is local. That's not just a Realtor term/phrase. It's true. No one is building in my area for the most part. If they are, it's owner occupied and likely coming from a rental. So it's not really adding to the housing inventory as someone will rent the place they vacated. Basically no builders are throwing up houses without a buyer anymore (in my area). If that starts happening in your area be concerned. That's like a builder putting $1M on black at the roulette table.

Basically anything being built is accounted for. Moving from a rental or selling your place to a new owner. No new inventory was really created. That's why I don't see a housing crash anytime soon, especially with lending being normal. Millennials I could see problems in the 2030-40's though. Once the boomers really start dying off and estates selling their parents homes, yet they mostly own homes already.