patrick.net

Eman says

I’ve been hearing about this topic since the Global Financial Crisis. 14 years later and here we are. Another round of doom and gloom

A retiree at the Peet’s coffee store told me his neighbor said America would collapse soon and sold his house in the Bay Area in 1989 to prepare for it. 33 years later……it keeps going and going and going.

What was your prediction in 2008?

Hope for the best and prepare for the worse.

Maybe it's just the lens we are looking through. Our parents had peak cold war and crazy 60s I bet a lot thought that was the end.

I think if things keep going the way they are it will open the door for a rebellion in the entire west and that is what the powers that be are trying to rout.

RC2006 says

Maybe it's just the lens we are looking through. Our parents had peak cold war and crazy 60s I bet a lot thought that was the end.

It WAS the end. Look up what a new car cost in 1965 versus 1975, and a 1975's car was a piece of shit. Hows the United Ladies Garment Worker's Union doing today?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lg4gGk53iY

Many people's lives were destroyed then, mostly blue collar workers. This time around, I think it's going to be "us", the eggheads. How much respect do you have for doctors, lawyers, engineers, and financial executives? It will be a lot lower in 5 years is my expectation.

I have some saving grace, as an engineer, my job is to support manufacturing and blue collar workers. I'm still an egghead, but I know that is where my future lies. I'd really like to work on robotic farm machinery. I'm well aware of the hand that feeds me, it's not another egghead. My boss is just another middle man, a leech really.

RC2006 says

I think if things keep going the way they are it will open the door for a rebellion in the entire west and that is what the powers that be are trying to rout.

Wait until the 99% realize all they need to do is kill less than 1% to end wars, end fraud, restore the judicial system, and restore society.

It's not the rich that need to be targeted really, it's the rich and corrupt, the criminal elite, which is much of the "elite", but not all of it.

just_passing_through says

Please confirm that this (terrible enough) is the case only when for sale -> not for your own personal consumption.

Yes, it's only in regard to sales, but the enforcement reaches all the way to the small time farmer, and actually specifically targets that group. If we are to be free of government control, we must be free to run our own economies.

Eman says

33 years later……it keeps going and going and going.

Correct. Inflation keeps going, and going, and going.

Moral decay keeps going, and going, and going.

Government control keeps growing, and growing, and growing.

If your retiree moved to the country, started growing produce, and raising animals, stocking guns and ammo, rigging his property for off-grid, etc, he is in a GREAT place right now, because he doesn't give a shit about the economy anymore.

The road to freedom is always worth traveling, the sooner, the better.

richwicks says

Wait until the 99% realize all they need to do is kill less than 1% to end wars, end fraud, restore the judicial system, and restore society.

Won't happen. 15-20% of the pop is simply insane and hate Western Civ because they hate themselves and externalize that unto society.

That is why mild Patriarchy is needed, and why societies without it don't last more than 2-3 generations before they break down.

Every family had a crazy Aunt Kathy who was in the funny farm or permanently was 'under the care' (and control) of first her own parents and then Uncle (her brother) and his wife, living up in the attic bedroom. By about age 25 the family realized she wasn't getting married or couldn't be trusted to go on dates because she was a slore.

These days, the crazy Aunt Kathys are roaming free with a tenure/union protected Ed/Gov job, or collecting some alimony and/or government benefits for their Fibro Myass Gia.





Aunt Kathy's male equivalent is Uncle Kevin, who stayed in the attic with porno mags and his coin/baseball card collection, today video games and pot and porn.

just_passing_through says

If you're considering livestock sheep give you 3-4x the meat density per acre vs. cattle. Also about 3-4x the profit per acre if you sell it.

Too much involvement at this point, I have to be in Houston Mon to Sat. We lease out some of the land to cattle ranchers.

NuttBoxer says

Eman says

33 years later……it keeps going and going and going.

Correct. Inflation keeps going, and going, and going.

Moral decay keeps going, and going, and going.

Government control keeps growing, and growing, and growing.

If your retiree moved to the country, started growing produce, and raising animals, stocking guns and ammo, rigging his property for off-grid, etc, he is in a GREAT place right now, because he doesn't give a shit about the economy anymore.

The road to freedom is always worth traveling, the sooner, the better.

Again, similar to USSR. Collapsed much later than everyone thought and at point when few expected.

Bd6r says

We lease out some of the land to cattle ranchers.

Alan Alda used to run his cattle through 25 acres in the Sierra my parents owned when I was a kid. Used to camp up there and wake up to Bulls hollering while they got them some cows.

just_passing_through says

Alan Alda used to run his cattle through 25 acres in the Sierra my parents owned when I was a kid. Used to camp up there and wake up to Bulls hollering while they got them some cows.

We feed one of cows (appropriately nicknamed Kamala) watermelon rinds and corn cobs. She waits at house fence around every meal to get her treats. Overall they run about 40 cows/bulls on our land.

WineHorror1 says

What was your prediction in 2008?

I didn’t have any predictions for 2008. In hindsight, I learned from a research by Piper Sandler that the economy was due for a big correction, and it did. They predicted it. True or not, I have no way to verify. However, they predict the next peak in the economy is 2030-2031 followed by a big recession. Time will tell.

All I know is that my research at the time suggested real estate was on fire sale in 2009-2012 so I loaded up the boat on it, and it has allowed me a life I could only dream. I don’t have to answer to anyone now, and I work 1-2 hours each day for myself on average.

NuttBoxer says

Eman says

33 years later……it keeps going and going and going.

Correct. Inflation keeps going, and going, and going.

Moral decay keeps going, and going, and going.

Government control keeps growing, and growing, and growing.

If your retiree moved to the country, started growing produce, and raising animals, stocking guns and ammo, rigging his property for off-grid, etc, he is in a GREAT place right now, because he doesn't give a shit about the economy anymore.

The road to freedom is always worth traveling, the sooner, the better.

I’m not smart enough to know if inflation will keep on going. Research by Piper Sandler suggests 10 year US treasury has peaked at 3.5% this year and will drop lower. Their year end prediction is 2.25-2.5%. How did they come up with this prediction? I have no clue. They have been right so many times so I take their prediction at face value. Their prediction suggests inflation will cool off. Will it happen? Time will tell.

Also, they called the stock market has bottomed. It’s time to accumulate and ride it back up. They have a year end price target (PT) of 4,775 for the S&P 500. They also suggest what to overweight and what to underweight. Will it happen? Time will tell.

All I know is that in the midst of the March 2020 stock market crash, they were on CNBC predicting a year end PT of 3,600 when SPX was trading around 2,300-2,400 at the time. SPX ended the year at 3,756. Then they predicted 2021 year end PT of 4,600 for SPX. They were right on too. Let’s see if they will be right again.

Their research is sold to big institutions. I happen to know the right person and get a copy of it on a weekly basis. 🙏

Bd6r says

Again, similar to USSR. Collapsed much later than everyone thought and at point when few expected.

Except it didn't. It was a planned transition. All the old guys got cushy jobs in the new government, nothing really changed.

NuttBoxer says

Except it didn't. It was a planned transition. All the old guys got cushy jobs in the new government, nothing really changed.

Perhaps this is why it was unexpected for most. And perhaps we will have controlled demolition here as well.

Eman says

I’m not smart enough to know if inflation will keep on going.

That's the trick of central bankers, confusing you with all their bullshit so they can keep robbing you. Forget all their jargon and lies, and just look at every historical example of where fiat currencies have gone, and where central bank run economies have gone. Their only weapons are bullshit, and inflation.

Eman says

All I know is that in the midst of the March 2020 stock market crash, they were on CNBC predicting a year end PT of 3,600

Have you read Dykstra's story? It's the same as theirs. During inflation, everything goes up, because the fiat keeps losing value. I was watching The Seven Faces of Dr Lao the other night. In one scene they're selling peanuts for a penny, and popcorn is free. Were peanuts and corn more plentiful back in the Old West? Were they easier to farm? The answer to both is no. Money was just worth more back then, because it was real.

If you keep thinking wealth is calculated by zeros on paper, rather than ease and quality of life, you will continue to be tired, sick, indebted, and unhappy.

NuttBoxer says

Except it didn't. It was a planned transition. All the old guys got cushy jobs in the new government, nothing really changed.

This is a very interesting topic. I might write a little about it here. I wonder if there are analogies with what will happen here.

just_passing_through says

Bd6r says

I've never eaten it but am considering trying to see if I could develop a taste for it just-in-case.

I've tried mutton (its ok, not great like cow) but I've heard sheeps milk is the real star. I heard its incredibly nutritious and packed with calories, and tastes good. I've never noticed it for sale at a store. I've seen goat milk but I dont really like the taste, although if it's all I had I could see maybe getting used to it.

I stumbled upon some youtube channel of a dude who lives like a nomad with a small flock of sheep - he has a cart he tows around with his shit and a bed, and the sheep eat grass from whatever field he's in for the day, and they give him milk of which he drinks and makes cheese / butter from. He also uses the wool to make clothes. He's kinda an extreme prepper / hippie but calls himself a guerilla grazer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U54HRmglYEA

lamb is by far the best ground meat you can have, super flavorful. Goat milk can take a little time to get used to. But my daughters all drink it, and we actually prefer it to cow milk.

richwicks says

It's not the rich that need to be targeted really, it's the rich and corrupt, the criminal elite, which is much of the "elite", but not all of it.

Yes, it's the super-psychopaths with power who are causing all the problems, like Fauci, Collins, Bourla, Gates, Soros, and Klaus Schwab.

NuttBoxer says

Goat milk can take a little time to get used to.

I bought some once and just could not finish it. But then, de gustibus non disputandum est.

NuttBoxer says

Goat milk can take a little time to get used to.

If goat is kept very clean, milk taste is much better, almost none of specific goat taste.

NuttBoxer says

I think we have months left.

Let's "remember this twit" and check back at 6 and 12 months.

Or you could reference multiple comments I've made back to 2020 saying we have three years left(expires this December).

But since you made this personal, guessing you've been so caught up in your Russian boogeyman theory, you haven't done shit to free yourself from the government you should have been focused on this whole time.

RWSGFY says

awaiting moderation

What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation in the promise to remember the prediction and revisit it later at 6 and 12 month mark? How insecure and butthurt the cunt who marked it personal must be?

Best way to eat lamb is in curry sauce. Tasty that way and the curry obliterates the gamey taste.
Second best is a little weird: hamburger. Have the butcher make the burger with lamb meat chunks interspersed with lard. Super tasty when grilled. Halal or Lebanese butchers will do this no problem.

NuttBoxer says

But since you made this personal, guessing you've been so caught up in your Russian boogeyman theory, you haven't done shit to free yourself from the government you should have been focused on this whole time.

Don't condemn people for believing the propaganda. It's run by a literal army of psychologists.

I heard an interesting take on this on a podcast this morning. The way to bring people to your side is ignore their insults and just explain what they don't know. Ron Paul did this. He certainly took feedback, but he never addressed what was bullshit or false, he just answered questions.

Partially (maybe in a large part) because of Ron Paul, we can have conversations about the unaudited Federal Reserve today.

RWSGFY says

What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation

Saying "this twit".

That's personal, being about him and not being about the topic.

Patrick says

RWSGFY says

What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation

Saying "this twit".

That's personal, being about him and not being about the topic.

Huh? "Remember this twit" is a common Internet phrase meaning "remember this post"
and originally referred to a post on Twitter, called "twits".

RWSGFY says

RWSGFY says

awaiting moderation

What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation in the promise to remember the prediction and revisit it later at 6 and 12 month mark? How insecure and butthurt the cunt who marked it personal must be?

Seemed like an intentional mis-spelling. If that wasn't the case, just needs to be edited. No problem at all with you calling out my prediction, or any of the previous one's I've made.

Debt to GDP peaked at 136 back in 2020 (source https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S )

So that is good news if it is 120 as it has trended down and may continue to trend down as the government inflates its way out of a debt crisis.

But I agree, as the trade-off is that inflation is essentially a tax on the working and middle class to sustain the government's solvency.

They could raise taxes that expire in 3 years or make modest cuts to spending to reduce the debt.

It will be interesting to see what tax revenues are for 2022.

ad says

Debt to GDP peaked at 136 back in 2020 (source https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S )

So that is good news if it is 120 as it has trended down and may continue to trend down as the government inflates its way out of a debt crisis.

But I agree, as the trade-off is that inflation is essentially a tax on the working and middle class to sustain the government's solvency.

They could raise taxes that expire in 3 years or make modest cuts to spending to reduce the debt.

It will be interesting to see what tax revenues are for 2022.

So, the way you bring the debt to GDP ratio down is to print more $$? Jeez, printing more $$ has 0 downsides?

Patrick says

RWSGFY says

What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation

Saying "this twit".

That's personal, being about him and not being about the topic.

Ok but in another thread a post that was later removed for being personal was subsequently quoted by another User and when it was marked personal you allowed the quoted remark which is still personal, to remain.

NuttBoxer says

lamb is by far the best ground meat you can have, super flavorful. Goat milk can take a little time to get used to. But my daughters all drink it, and we actually prefer it to cow milk.

I like lamb a lot if it's quality and cooked properly. I make some really good greek/gyro style meatballs with ground lamb and pork.

On the whole debt thing. We don't have to repay it. As mell said there will be a reset of the financial system to an extent. I don't think it will be a crisis or collapse, outside of some in the banking industry jumping out of buildings. You, we, us and the government don't have to repay it. No one can force us. The rest of the world is in worse shape by a long shot. Especially right now with the Ukraine shit and China virus still fucking up the supply chain.

I hate the inflation, we do need to tap the brakes on it if we can, but most people I know are doing substantially well. Most white collar workers and the blue collars here in IL always make bank if working for the government.

I liked the economy before Covid, but I'm just still not seeing a massive collapse of any kind. Recession for sure. Probably not as bad as the housing crash. We're going to look back 20 years from now and ultimately realize how bad that was. The saving grace is that it was a collapse in physical assets people need. Prices on a home can drop, but people still need a roof over their head (unless in CA, lol). And that's not a knock, just saying y'all have quite the homeless situation out there.

The supply chain issues are of biggest concern if you don't have the resources. I'm not a prepper, but I easily have 2 months of food in my house. When shit hits the fan, generally Americans are all hands on deck. Or so I hope. We'll see. This is what happens when POTUS doesn't lead. Confidence erodes. I think November could turn it around though. Our political cycle got fucked in 2020. I think it will get better, as what is happing now ain't working.

WineHorror1 says

So, the way you bring the debt to GDP ratio down is to print more $$? Jeez, printing more $$ has 0 downsides?

The tradeoff or downside is that the working stiffs or working class as well as those on limited income such as social security end up suffering the most.

There may be a 5% increase in social security payment but a vast majority of their expenses increased by 8%.

So they lose 3% of buying power.

This forces them to make cuts to spending as Walmart has reported today in its earning guidance and forecast in regards to inflationary conditions.

Seems like Wall Street and Main Street are expecting the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.75% this week, that is from 1.75% to 2.5%.

It was 0.25% from around 2009 to 2016. It peaked at around 2.75% in 2018.

At least gas prices here in Florida panhandle went down from the recent peak of $4.75 to currently about $3.80.

.

I suspect Fed may try to raise the Fed Funds rate to at least 4.5% in order to give enough margin to lower rates without going back to a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) like from 2009 to 2016.

Social Security and VA disability payments went up 5.9% at the end of 2021 yet inflation was 7.1% in 2021.

The federal government and Fed look at this as one way to distribute the burden. I would say slightly raise taxes on higher income earners for no more than 2 years and hold spending constant for two years. This is one way to reduce the debt to GDP ratio very quickly.

ad says

hold spending constant for two years

what is the chance of this happening???

Bd6r says

ad says

hold spending constant for two years

what is the chance of this happening???

0, of course.

Man, the government doesn't give a fuck about the population. They actively attack it now. They don't need tax revenue, they just get as much fucking money as they want from the Federal Reserve.

ad says

The tradeoff or downside is that the working stiffs or working class as well as those on limited income such as social security end up suffering the most.

To start off, and at small scale. But over a long enough period of time, inflation takes everything, from all of us. Through booms we are encouraged to overspend, and through busts, our land and possessions are repo'd or sold for pennies on the dollar. All the while we pour more of our time into their system, and have less to show for it. Eventually we are reduced to subsistence living, and indentured servitude.

The only benefit of inflation, is to those running the presses.