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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   607,284 views  5,687 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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442   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Jul 29, 8:42am  

Realtors, take note! Wet pavement suggests wet pussy.





443   SunnyvaleCA   2022 Jul 29, 9:54am  

B.A.C.A.H. says


Of course they will take the most they can get. But bidding wars etc are not their fault: it's the buyers' fault for overpaying.

The Freakonomics book (or one of its multiple sequels) had a chapter discussing that real estate agents take longer to sell their own houses compared to selling the houses of clients. The takeaway was that when their own house is on the line, agents take their time and get the highest price.

With that in mind as well as personal observations, I gather that the real estate agents purposefully list low sales prices, get a bunch of anxious buyers interested, and then create a feeding frenzy of over-bidding so as to sell the property at a decent (but not highest) price as quickly as possible. After all, both the buyer's and seller's agent have a vested interest in transacting as quickly as possible, collecting that juicy commission, and moving on to the next transaction. "Bidding wars" achieves this very well.

Here in my part of Sunnyvale, when things are really hopping, a property goes for sale listed $200k low, has open house on weekend (this is just for agents to find new clients, as the real viewing is with an agent who has the combination to the lock box for private showing), bids are taken for the next few days, and the house sells "$200k over asking" that same week. $25k commissions for both agents thank you very much! Most agents spend most of their time trying to find new clients, not actually doing useful work.
444   Blue   2022 Jul 29, 1:43pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Realtors, take note! Wet pavement suggests

This is one of the new techniques to fool new buyer as if it is next to a pond!
445   Eman   2022 Jul 29, 2:35pm  

zzyzzx says



This listing makes no sense. Buy $400k and relish it for $412k? That doesn’t even cover the commissions and closing costs. Where’s the profit?
446   Eman   2022 Jul 29, 2:45pm  

ad says

HeadSet says


True, but a rare circumstance. If the house was worth more than the loan, the owner would have sold it rather than let it be foreclosed. Throwing the keys to the bank happens when the house is not worth what is owed on it.


Very true as this is what happened when housing prices crashed 2008 to 2011 and most homes were underwater (equity was less than outstanding mortgage).

A lot of the underwater homes had 3 year ARMs. Notice you don't see 3 year ARMs but there are 5 year ARMs.


Banks are a lot smarter now unlike the previous housing bubble. 3/1 ARMs, 5/1 ARMs, or 7/1 ARMs are no longer being underwritten like before. Banks use a much higher qualifying rate to underwrite the loans. They want to be sure the buyers are well qualified in a higher interest rate environment.

With the way these loans are currently being underwritten, I guess banks expect interest rates will come back down in the coming years. Here’s something we recently got from our lender.

447   Booger   2022 Jul 29, 2:47pm  

Eman says

This listing makes no sense. Buy $400k and relish it for $412k? That doesn’t even cover the commissions and closing costs. Where’s the profit?


It's probably an Opendoor listing.
449   Ceffer   2022 Jul 29, 4:18pm  

Remember when they couldn't give Florida urban condos away.
450   Patrick   2022 Jul 29, 4:19pm  

I agree that there is no way they are now worth double, but it's also true that DeSantis has greatly increased the value of Florida real estate as a refuge from the evil of wokeness.
451   gabbar   2022 Jul 29, 5:51pm  

If the housing market remains stagnant, I doubt that the National Association of Realtors will sit idle. The fucking realtors and mortgage officers need to make money too.
452   GNL   2022 Jul 29, 6:04pm  

gabbar says



@Wookieman says declining home prices are unpossible.
453   HeadSet   2022 Jul 29, 7:47pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says


Realtors, take note! Wet pavement suggests wet pussy.

Yes, but that wet pavement leads to a 3 gar garage.....
454   Booger   2022 Jul 30, 12:47pm  

This is in one of the nice parts of Baltimore City:

455   GNL   2022 Jul 30, 1:33pm  

Booger says

This is in one of the nice parts of Baltimore City:



There is only 1 nice part of Baltimore City. The Inner Harbor. And even that ain't so nice since both Stadiums are right there also.
456   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Jul 30, 1:43pm  

Fells Point has some nice restaurants. And what other city has a Bromo-Seltzer clock tower?



457   GNL   2022 Jul 30, 6:46pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Fells Point has some nice restaurants. And what other city has a Bromo-Seltzer clock tower?







My brother had a gun pulled on him on the dance floor in Fells Point. If you remember Hammer Jacks (best f'ing bar I've ever been to), I witnessed a girl hit a guy over the head with a bottle of beer. The top of his whole scalp peeled down over his face. Damn crazy ass place. Girls routinely got on the bar and took their tops off jiggling their titties for all to see.
460   WookieMan   2022 Aug 1, 6:48am  

Patrick says

He predicted that within the next few years, housing prices could drop up to 25 percent, and that they will begin to decline in early 2023, which could see double-digit drops in prices.

Disagree. Everyone has substantial equity if they bought in the last 5 years or back to 2010ish. We don't have shit loans to unqualified borrowers. People are holding/living in their homes longer. It will stagnate for sure, but I don't see drops until spec building picks up. Might be happening in some spots of the country. Not here.

There's no quality labor. Building is at maybe 1/10th of what it was during the boom & bust. A 25% crash in prices is massive. Just because we lived through a once in a lifetime event doesn't mean it will happen again. Coastal regions are off my radar though. Flyover country is fine outside of hipster hot pockets. Not a chance I lose $50k on my home over the next 2-3 years without a civil war or some other geopolitical event.
461   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 1, 7:07am  

WookieMan says

We don't have shit loans to unqualified borrowers.

ARM's and HELOC's are back. Supposedly 27% of homeowners have a HELOC...

WookieMan says

Just because we lived through a once in a lifetime


More than once in my lifetime already, and I'm 56.
463   SunnyvaleCA   2022 Aug 1, 7:13am  

WookieMan says

A 25% crash in prices is massive. Just because we lived through a once in a lifetime event doesn't mean it will happen again.

25% decline is massive for real estate if you are thinking of a decline as a percentage from the top. But if it's just a correction for the recent 40% gain, it'll only be setting prices back to what they were before the covid. In my area, it won't even be going back to pre-covid prices.
464   gabbar   2022 Aug 1, 9:21am  

I just found out that 2 of my friends who work in IT industry have purchased rental properties in 2019 (1 purchased 8 single family homes and the other bought 2 single family homes) as side hustles. They are renting it out to students and other IT employees. The purchases were made in Austin, TX and Columbus, OH.

So, is this a sound and profitable side hustle?
465   1337irr   2022 Aug 1, 9:56am  

gabbar says

I just found out that 2 of my friends who work in IT industry have purchased rental properties in 2019 (1 purchased 8 single family homes and the other bought 2 single family homes) as side hustles. They are renting it out to students and other IT employees. The purchases were made in Austin, TX and Columbus, OH.

So, is this a sound and profitable side hustle?

Depends on their cost basis and management style. If the revenue is not covering costs, then most likely, no. Ask them.

Generally, real estate investing is very tax efficient, it's better than a W-2 at times with the deductions.
467   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Aug 2, 5:56am  

zzyzzx says

More Than 8 Million Americans Are Late on Rent as Prices Increase


469   GNL   2022 Aug 3, 8:13am  

zzyzzx says



@Wookieman told me that was unpossible. Are you sure this is correct?
470   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 3, 8:40am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/weidlb/my_house_finally_sold_after_2_months/

My house finally sold after 2 months and for $75,000 less than the original buyer.
471   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 3, 8:50am  

https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-bubble-crash-prices-bank-executives-fear-meltdown-survey-2021-10

78% of community bank executives expect the housing market to crash by 2026
472   Blue   2022 Aug 3, 11:31am  

zzyzzx says


https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-bubble-crash-prices-bank-executives-fear-meltdown-survey-2021-10

78% of community bank executives expect the housing market to crash by 2026

18% up in one year particularly in a very nonproductive year period is completely wrong to begin with. At least this much amount needs to be fixed. But again gov gave away trillions to top 1% that money will chases things like RE. Gov and it’s corrupt policies on fake Covid end up hurting most.
474   GNL   2022 Aug 3, 7:39pm  

Testing new name.
476   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 4, 7:40am  

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/foa-cuts-workforce-amid-company-restructuring-market-downturn/

FoA cuts workforce amid company restructuring, market downturn
Texas-based lender had large-scale layoffs in the second and third quarters of 2022

The company loan origination volume fell to $5.1 billion in the first quarter, down 26% from the prior quarter and 39% from the first quarter of 2021. Overall, FoA delivered a $64 million loss in the first quarter of 2022. (The company is expected to report second-quarter earnings on Thursday.)

FoA cut roughly 600 jobs between March 2021 and March 2022.
477   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Aug 4, 7:41am  

FoA - Full of Asshoes?

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