patrick.net

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-homebuilder-confidence-hits-worst-140000974.html

US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007 Collapse

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-homebuilder-confidence-hits-worst-140000974.html

US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007 Collapse

Hold my beer, zzyzzx.

Strange, Santa Cruz has opened up with sales more than tri-valley so far, with the 'low end' in tri-valley giving the first signs. I laugh, because the 'low end' people in rinky dinky condos could be living on McMansion estates in Texas. They mostly display their 'wealth' with vehicle mania.

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/wells-fargo-plans-major-retreat-from-mortgage-business-it-long-dominated-69227.html

Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated

Buffett isn't dumb.

Booger says

Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated

Not sure as they make about $800 on the mortgage origination fee and then they can sell the mortgages via mortgage back securities (MBS) in order to remove the liability from their financial books. They make at least a 20% profit from the origination fee after accounting for salaries, overhead, etc.

,

Patrick says

Buffett isn't dumb.

Buffet probably isn't stupid, but he's not a genius so much as he's connected. Don't think the government doesn't directly assist him.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market

Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?

ad says

Booger says

Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated

Not sure as they make about $800 on the mortgage origination fee and then they can sell the mortgages via mortgage back securities (MBS) in order to remove the liability from their financial books. They make at least a 20% profit from the origination fee after accounting for salaries, overhead, etc.

,

The forecast is for an increase in foreclosures. Foreclosures are expensive because of all the legal fees, insurance and customer contact demand. Wells Fargo is good to get out. I say that based on my previous mortgage experience,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-16/buyers-get-cold-feet-home-sale-cancellations-jump-in-july

US Home-Sale Cancellations Soar in July as Buyers Pull Back

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/homes/rising-rent-wages-housing

Majority of Americans say they're worried about being able to pay for housing

1337irr says

Foreclosures are expensive because of all the legal fees, insurance and customer contact demand.

They learned 2006-12. Foreclosures are more expensive. Remember they're on the hook for property taxes as well. Banks save substantially more getting "some" money.

Say your payment is $1,000. It will easily cost the bank $500/mo if they kick your ass out and that still takes a year or so of getting nothing. Loans are amortized, so the money is made up front. If you got someone that has paid 2-3+, you're in the green still. Defer or reduce the payment for a set period, let the owner take care of the place, and hope the situation gets better.

I was in the trenches for 4-5 years with REO's (foreclosed homes). Bankers have no business in real estate management or sales. They're morons. If I was running the banks I'd have fired EVERY single person I dealt with during that time. ALL of them. Also real estate brokers managing properties that have been foreclosed is a fucking joke. They don't know how to manage properties. They're sales people. I don't think we'll ever see a housing bust like that again in our lifetimes. I could be wrong, as people are prone to make the same mistakes.

The so-called "monetary theory" is only a ruse to manipulate the economy. Politicians and their campaign financiers have been benefiting from massive deficit spending (no valid budget) thereby avoiding a vote to increase in taxes. Deficit spending gives politicians more power because of the newly created "fake money" that is basically distributed at their discretion (to fight wars in Ukraine, Afghanistan and wars in the future). The Ponzi scheme of the fed hurts the poor the most as it drives inflation. The wealthy watch their assets rise in value while the poor and middle class get crushed by an increase in the cost of living, real wage reduction, and an increase in taxes. Property taxes, sale taxes, and income taxes increase. This increase in taxes reduces the opportunity for savings by the poor and middle class and can drive them into debt, risking bankruptcy instead of the opportunity for financial freedom. This is how the rich get richer and poor get poorer. Every tax increase gives your freedom to the government and their controllers.

WookieMan says

Also real estate brokers managing properties that have been foreclosed is a fucking joke.forec

Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".

gabbar says

The so-called "monetary theory" is only a ruse to manipulate the economy. Politicians and their campaign financiers have been benefiting from massive deficit spending (no valid budget) thereby avoiding a vote to increase in taxes.
....
The wealthy watch their assets rise in value while the poor and middle class get crushed by an increase in the cost of living, real wage reduction, and an increase in taxes.

Isn't it a contradiction?

So do you rent in inflationary times or buy a house with dropping prices? Decisions.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/212d18cc-91f0-3129-ac56-183b8cbda094/lowe%E2%80%99s-sales-drop-again-as.html

Lowe’s Sales Drop Again as Homeowners Pull Back on Discretionary Purchases

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/17/mortgage-demand-fell-last-week-even-as-rates-declined-slightly.html

Mortgage demand fell last week even as rates declined slightly

Free Pizza with house:

https://austin.culturemap.com/news/real-estate/08-16-22-austin-real-estate-report-housing-inventory-highest-levels-since-2018/

Austin housing inventory skyrockets to highest levels since 2018

GNLusedto says

Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".

Bank owns the property. They hire a RE broker to manage it and make sure it doesn't break (so to speak). They (brokers) then hire out another party to take care of the place. Winterizing, weekly checkups, etc. So basically 3-4 levels deep from the actual owner, the bank. Someone does AND will always drop the ball and the property gets fucked up costing the banks thousands at minimum and potentially 100's of thousands.

If you don't trust RE agents in sales, management is even worse. And that's the go to when a property forecloses unless things have changed in the last 3-4 years, which they should have. Brokers who are sales whores (which you likely know from our conversations) have no clue how to manage property. 9 out of 10 times they can't change a faucet in the bathroom or kitchen. Many are bimbos. Never trust an RE broker with managing your property. Never. They're sales people. They sell homes, don't manage. Hell most cannot manage their business without going BK at some point in the cycles of RE.

zzyzzx says

Free Pizza with house:

Waiting on free house with pizza.

zzyzzx says

Free Pizza with house:

boise is super expensive with all the CA millionnaires moving in with equity. many of those folks are moving to meridian. housing prices here are at peak, and taxes aren’t locked.

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...but the state and local governments worries me.

https://notthebee.com/article/hoo-boy-new-housing-construction-plunged-last-month-flashing-a-telltale-warning-sign-for-a-possible-recession

Hoo boy: New housing construction plunged last month, adding more worry of a mass housing crash

1337irr says

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST

I wish what you wrote is true.

This summer, prices have only crashed to the Super-Expensive Super-Overpriced level of about a year or so ago.

If the prices fall by half, which would be a good thing for Local Kids and Employers in the region (and therefore for the local economy), then prices would be reasonable. Reasonable, but not cheap.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/mortgage-lenders-are-starting-to-go-broke-as-loan-volumes-plunge?srnd=premium

US Mortgage Lenders Are Starting to Go Broke

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article264650054.html

Miami-Dade housing market finally cooling, as prices dip for first time since 2021

1337irr says

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...

I'm with B.A.C.A.H. on this. Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay. I do expect normal seasonality to kick in for the Fall. Hopefully we'll start seeing some drops soon as price to rent ratio is extremely out of whack...

I'm already getting desperate calls from lenders for a refi.Dumb fucks all my mortgages are under 3.5.

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

I'm surprised that it hasn't happened already several times. Same for NYC.

EBGuy says

Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay.

Not yet would be more appropriate.

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

Some guy I worked with told me that this is not possible because of the bathrooms. Each apartment needs its own bathroom, but office buildings simply do not have that infrastructure.

Patrick says

ome guy I worked with told me that this is not possible because of the bathrooms. Each apartment needs its own bathroom, but office buildings simply do not have that infrastructure.

Since when did anybody in SF need a bathroom?

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

Haha - I'm waiting for commercial real estate buildings to be converted into residential.

I was kind of disappointed that malls were never converted to residential units. They could have done that. It would be nice to live in an area where at the ground floor are trees and grass, illuminated by a skylight and heated and cooled year round. That would be the fake outside, but still you could go for a walk in December in upstate New York in shorts with your family and dog.

Problem with malls though, is they were all built like crap.