patrick.net

1337irr says

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST

I wish what you wrote is true.

This summer, prices have only crashed to the Super-Expensive Super-Overpriced level of about a year or so ago.

If the prices fall by half, which would be a good thing for Local Kids and Employers in the region (and therefore for the local economy), then prices would be reasonable. Reasonable, but not cheap.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/mortgage-lenders-are-starting-to-go-broke-as-loan-volumes-plunge?srnd=premium

US Mortgage Lenders Are Starting to Go Broke

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article264650054.html

Miami-Dade housing market finally cooling, as prices dip for first time since 2021

1337irr says

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...

I'm with B.A.C.A.H. on this. Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay. I do expect normal seasonality to kick in for the Fall. Hopefully we'll start seeing some drops soon as price to rent ratio is extremely out of whack...

I'm already getting desperate calls from lenders for a refi.Dumb fucks all my mortgages are under 3.5.

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

I'm surprised that it hasn't happened already several times. Same for NYC.

EBGuy says

Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay.

Not yet would be more appropriate.

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

Some guy I worked with told me that this is not possible because of the bathrooms. Each apartment needs its own bathroom, but office buildings simply do not have that infrastructure.

Patrick says

ome guy I worked with told me that this is not possible because of the bathrooms. Each apartment needs its own bathroom, but office buildings simply do not have that infrastructure.

Since when did anybody in SF need a bathroom?

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

Haha - I'm waiting for commercial real estate buildings to be converted into residential.

I was kind of disappointed that malls were never converted to residential units. They could have done that. It would be nice to live in an area where at the ground floor are trees and grass, illuminated by a skylight and heated and cooled year round. That would be the fake outside, but still you could go for a walk in December in upstate New York in shorts with your family and dog.

Problem with malls though, is they were all built like crap.

https://www.realtrends.com/articles/keller-williams-implements-4th-round-of-layoffs/

I don't want to see 5.6% mortgage rates. I want to see 25.6% mortgage rates.

GNLused says

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market

Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?

GameStop (stock) of course.

That stock is proof of inflation..

GNLused says

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market

Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?

Nobody wants to invest in housing or crypto, so the stock market wins by default.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/cheap-homes-house-prices-are-being-slashed-in-former-pandemic-boomtowns

Non paywall link:
https://archive.ph/EuBeO

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/23/what-a-housing-recession-means-for-homeowners-buyers-sellers.html

My perfect scenario is rates go to 11%, and house prices drop accordingly so that monthly payments are affordable. I then buy at lower principal, and shortly after that rates go back down to 2% and I refinance! I can dream, right?

exfatguy says

My perfect scenario is rates go to 11%, and house prices drop accordingly so that monthly payments are affordable. I then buy at lower principal, and shortly after that rates go back down to 2% and I refinance! I can dream, right?

It could happen but, most likely over a long period of time.

zzyzzx says

But but but, it won’t be like 2008 this time…..

All the illegals will pool their cash and buy up inventory as prices drop while leaving the rentier class holding the shit bag…

https://thepricklypear.org/housing-recession-sales-plunge-to-lockdown-levels-active-listings-surge-prices-begin-to-dip-as-price-reductions-spike-investors-pull-back/

exfatguy says

My perfect scenario is rates go to 11%, and house prices drop accordingly so that monthly payments are affordable. I then buy at lower principal, and shortly after that rates go back down to 2% and I refinance! I can dream, right?

Yes.

And lock in a lower Proposition 13 assessment.

I'm hoping that home prices drop such that near the bottom I'm ready to buy my retirement home in Florida and GTFO of the Northeast.

Reported drops of hundreds of thousands of dollars on some units are happening in Santa Cruz. However, it is already a grotesquely inflated market. I am curious about what will happen this winter. Inventory has increased, but still isn't huge.

Booger says

I'm hoping that home prices drop such that near the bottom I'm ready to buy my retirement home in Florida and GTFO of the Northeast.

You will feel right at home since so many of your NE neighbors will move there as well.

Booger says

I'm hoping that home prices drop such that near the bottom I'm ready to buy my retirement home in Florida and GTFO of the Northeast.

Just make sure Omar Little and Stringer Bell don't follow you down there.

Just visited a place in union city, prices still don’t seem to be going down significantly yet. Any old 3/2b asking 1-1.5m.
Edit: someone I know bought very old 3/2b shack for 1.4m, a total ripoff. I couldn’t tell them directly. It’s down 50k after closing in about a month ago. I feel sad for them.

Mailer from a bay area broker:

Mortgage rates have dropped ~ a half point since a peak hit in mid-June and inflation seems to be under control, but home sales continue to lag and the Bay Area median home price dropped for the 3rd straight month in July. The Bay Area median dropped 7% in July vs June (from 1.4M to 1.3M). Although that was flat Year-to-Year vs last July, the Bay Area home price median has now dropped 16.4% since its all time peak of 1.54M in April

San Francisco, San Mateo, and Contra Costa Counties saw the biggest Month to Month median price drop in July (10.5%, 8.8%, and 7.6% respectively), while Napa County actually saw a 13.6% month to month “gain” and 17.9% Year to Year gain.

Bay Area housing demand cooled further in July as the effects of higher mortgage rates and high home prices continues to hit potential home buyers, dragging home sales to their lowest level in over 2 years. Bay Area home sales volume dropped 20% in July vs June and a whopping 37% vs July of 2021. Santa Clara County saw the biggest Year to Year drop in Sales volume in July at 46.1%!
And the median time on market has risen from 12 days in June to 15 days in July. Last July it was only 10 days.

C.A.R. chief economist Jordan Levine recently pointed out that home sales have taken a trouncing due to a market shift in response to the surge in mortgage rates, and that pending sales suggest that the market could remain soft in August. But that the pace of sales declines is expected to slow in the coming months as rates continue to stabilize, market volatility begins to subside and supply conditions further normalize.

C.A.R. President Otto Catrina also recently weighed in that high home prices and rising interest rates in the Spring depressed housing affordability to the lowest level in nearly 15 years, which in turn dampened home sales. But that buying opportunities remain in the coming months for those who have been waiting on the sideline as more listings become available, competition continues to cool off and rates begin to stabilize.

In recent “good” news for the California housing market as a whole, after dropping precipitously in recent months, the first few weeks of August show that the market may be searching for a bottom on transactions. Through the first 2 weeks of this month, pending sales are actually up 1.9% from where they were last month. Although just a modest increase, it’s encouraging that pending sales have not fallen further in August. Recent trends in mortgage rates may have motivated some potential homeowners to take advantage of the fall from nearly 6% in June to just 5.22% in the latest weekly data.

And the California Housing Sentiment Index recently revealed that buyers are beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel by observing a tapering in both the price growth of homes and mortgage rates, as well as more inventory to choose from. Inner Bay Area inventory is currently up 31% Year-to-Year.

However, sellers seem to be holding back a bit as they have grown more pessimistic that it’s the right time to sell. The component of the index tracking consumers’ perspective on the ‘right time to sell’ slipped for the 4th consecutive month, to 60%, as indicators of market competitiveness show buyer demand has cooled-off from its highs due to affordability challenges.

Overall, Bay Area home prices have come down off a peak in April and sales activity has also been slumping. But mortgage rates have come down by a half point since June, there are signs that inflation is under control, and inventory is higher than in previous years.

All of these positive buying signals should motivate enough fence-sitting prospective Bay Area buyers to come back to the market and home prices should settle down near the current levels the rest of the year.

https://nypost.com/2022/08/24/us-housing-market-in-much-worse-shape-than-fed-admits-economist/

US housing market in ‘much worse shape’ than Fed admits: economist

https://nitter.pussthecat.org/GRDecter/status/1562437282048552961#m

I just photographed a home that is on it's 2nd realtor. The first realtor listed it for $1.15 million. The 2nd realtor is listing it at $899. This is in Nothern VA. On a side note, Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-bank-of-america-downgrade-173236691.html

BofA downgrades three homebuilders as housing downturn accelerates

Rafe Jadrosich at Bank of America Global Research downgraded shares of Lennar (LEN) to Underperform from Neutral, and shares of KB Home (KBH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) to Neutral from Buy, as rising interest rates challenge affordability for buyers.

GNL says

Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

These Realtors need to learn how to use an IPhone. Seriously, unless you are using a drone and photographing the inside of the sewer line exiting the place, $1000 is way too much. They must be fucking stupid.