patrick.net

https://thepricklypear.org/housing-recession-sales-plunge-to-lockdown-levels-active-listings-surge-prices-begin-to-dip-as-price-reductions-spike-investors-pull-back/

exfatguy says

My perfect scenario is rates go to 11%, and house prices drop accordingly so that monthly payments are affordable. I then buy at lower principal, and shortly after that rates go back down to 2% and I refinance! I can dream, right?

Yes.

And lock in a lower Proposition 13 assessment.

I'm hoping that home prices drop such that near the bottom I'm ready to buy my retirement home in Florida and GTFO of the Northeast.

Reported drops of hundreds of thousands of dollars on some units are happening in Santa Cruz. However, it is already a grotesquely inflated market. I am curious about what will happen this winter. Inventory has increased, but still isn't huge.

Booger says

I'm hoping that home prices drop such that near the bottom I'm ready to buy my retirement home in Florida and GTFO of the Northeast.

You will feel right at home since so many of your NE neighbors will move there as well.

Booger says

I'm hoping that home prices drop such that near the bottom I'm ready to buy my retirement home in Florida and GTFO of the Northeast.

Just make sure Omar Little and Stringer Bell don't follow you down there.

Just visited a place in union city, prices still don’t seem to be going down significantly yet. Any old 3/2b asking 1-1.5m.
Edit: someone I know bought very old 3/2b shack for 1.4m, a total ripoff. I couldn’t tell them directly. It’s down 50k after closing in about a month ago. I feel sad for them.

Mailer from a bay area broker:

Mortgage rates have dropped ~ a half point since a peak hit in mid-June and inflation seems to be under control, but home sales continue to lag and the Bay Area median home price dropped for the 3rd straight month in July. The Bay Area median dropped 7% in July vs June (from 1.4M to 1.3M). Although that was flat Year-to-Year vs last July, the Bay Area home price median has now dropped 16.4% since its all time peak of 1.54M in April

San Francisco, San Mateo, and Contra Costa Counties saw the biggest Month to Month median price drop in July (10.5%, 8.8%, and 7.6% respectively), while Napa County actually saw a 13.6% month to month “gain” and 17.9% Year to Year gain.

Bay Area housing demand cooled further in July as the effects of higher mortgage rates and high home prices continues to hit potential home buyers, dragging home sales to their lowest level in over 2 years. Bay Area home sales volume dropped 20% in July vs June and a whopping 37% vs July of 2021. Santa Clara County saw the biggest Year to Year drop in Sales volume in July at 46.1%!
And the median time on market has risen from 12 days in June to 15 days in July. Last July it was only 10 days.

C.A.R. chief economist Jordan Levine recently pointed out that home sales have taken a trouncing due to a market shift in response to the surge in mortgage rates, and that pending sales suggest that the market could remain soft in August. But that the pace of sales declines is expected to slow in the coming months as rates continue to stabilize, market volatility begins to subside and supply conditions further normalize.

C.A.R. President Otto Catrina also recently weighed in that high home prices and rising interest rates in the Spring depressed housing affordability to the lowest level in nearly 15 years, which in turn dampened home sales. But that buying opportunities remain in the coming months for those who have been waiting on the sideline as more listings become available, competition continues to cool off and rates begin to stabilize.

In recent “good” news for the California housing market as a whole, after dropping precipitously in recent months, the first few weeks of August show that the market may be searching for a bottom on transactions. Through the first 2 weeks of this month, pending sales are actually up 1.9% from where they were last month. Although just a modest increase, it’s encouraging that pending sales have not fallen further in August. Recent trends in mortgage rates may have motivated some potential homeowners to take advantage of the fall from nearly 6% in June to just 5.22% in the latest weekly data.

And the California Housing Sentiment Index recently revealed that buyers are beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel by observing a tapering in both the price growth of homes and mortgage rates, as well as more inventory to choose from. Inner Bay Area inventory is currently up 31% Year-to-Year.

However, sellers seem to be holding back a bit as they have grown more pessimistic that it’s the right time to sell. The component of the index tracking consumers’ perspective on the ‘right time to sell’ slipped for the 4th consecutive month, to 60%, as indicators of market competitiveness show buyer demand has cooled-off from its highs due to affordability challenges.

Overall, Bay Area home prices have come down off a peak in April and sales activity has also been slumping. But mortgage rates have come down by a half point since June, there are signs that inflation is under control, and inventory is higher than in previous years.

All of these positive buying signals should motivate enough fence-sitting prospective Bay Area buyers to come back to the market and home prices should settle down near the current levels the rest of the year.

https://nypost.com/2022/08/24/us-housing-market-in-much-worse-shape-than-fed-admits-economist/

US housing market in ‘much worse shape’ than Fed admits: economist

https://nitter.pussthecat.org/GRDecter/status/1562437282048552961#m

I just photographed a home that is on it's 2nd realtor. The first realtor listed it for $1.15 million. The 2nd realtor is listing it at $899. This is in Nothern VA. On a side note, Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-bank-of-america-downgrade-173236691.html

BofA downgrades three homebuilders as housing downturn accelerates

Rafe Jadrosich at Bank of America Global Research downgraded shares of Lennar (LEN) to Underperform from Neutral, and shares of KB Home (KBH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) to Neutral from Buy, as rising interest rates challenge affordability for buyers.

GNL says

Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

These Realtors need to learn how to use an IPhone. Seriously, unless you are using a drone and photographing the inside of the sewer line exiting the place, $1000 is way too much. They must be fucking stupid.

GNL says

Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

@GNL Could you post a sample of your work?

GNL says

On a side note, Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

Awesome. You ever get into drones? I know we talked privately. I rarely check my burner account for patnet as I didn't trust a lot of people in the past.

WookieMan says

GNL says

On a side note, Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

Awesome. You ever get into drones? I know we talked privately. I rarely check my burner account for patnet as I didn't trust a lot of people in the past.

I live in the DC area (McLean Va.) very little drone access around here so I never got my license. Besides, there's a national company called Dronebase.com. They have a great "little" system going on. There are also too many factors for me to get involved with, it can be difficult because of weather. I let Dronebase have the work.

zzyzzx says

GNL says

Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

These Realtors need to learn how to use an IPhone. Seriously, unless you are using a drone and photographing the inside of the sewer line exiting the place, $1000 is way too much. They must be fucking stupid.

Come on man, I could go on and on about why a Realtor should not take their own photos let alone use an iPhone. There is an image and perception to using a "Professional" photographer/videographer. Agents aren't trying to be a jack of all trades. I have plenty of clients that used to take their own photos. I'm also able to do things faster and cheaper than my competition. Stuff like virtual staging. Fake furniture can be put in empty homes. Again, editors do this for me and then I mark it up. A competitor of mine charges $60 per photo to do this. I charge $25 and still make $10-$12 per photo. At that price, Realtors are more likely to 1. pay for it and 2. order more photos.

GNL says

Come on man, I could go on and on about why a Realtor should not take their own photos let alone use an iPhone. There is an image and perception to using a "Professional" photographer/videographer. Agents aren't trying to be a jack of all trades. I have plenty of clients that used to take their own photos. I'm also able to do things faster and cheaper than my competition. Stuff like virtual staging. Fake furniture can be put in empty homes. Again, editors do this for me and then I mark it up. A competitor of mine charges $60 per photo to do this. I charge $25 and still make $10-$12 per photo. At that price, Realtors are more likely to 1. pay for it and 2. order more photos.

I completely agree with this. There is a night and day difference between professional photos and someone using a mid level DSLR. It's like magic. Two pictures of the same room at the same angle - the professional photo will look like a castle next to the amateurs hovel. It's especially important in the age of zillow - where pictures do most of the marketing.

stfu says

It's especially important in the age of zillow - where pictures do most of the marketing.

Yep, Zillow wouldn't even exist, imo, if there were no photos. Imagine that, a multi billion dollar company couldn't survive without photos.

If someone could figure out how to control copyrights to all of the photos the industry requires, they'd control the real estate industry.

https://archive.ph/AeQhw

Blackstone Single-Family Landlord to Halt Home Purchases in 38 Cities

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been ordered to reduce the amount of 2nd homes and Investment properties they can finance to 7% of their total production.

Translation - Interest rates and costs are going up nationwide on all 2nd home buyers and investment property buyers.

Opendoor taking a bath on this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8353-Calle-Morelos-92126/home/4529149?600390594=

Booger says

Opendoor taking a bath on this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8353-Calle-Morelos-92126/home/4529149?600390594=

RE investors and home sellers had become addicted to ridiculous annual price appreciation, and so when listing prices are lowered, it still may not mean a loss if the home were owned for a few years, as may be the case with this home. When someone who bought four or five years ago and sells now experiences a negative average annual return, then we're talking. But dropping price from an expected 14% or even 20% YOY price increase, while in the right direction, does not necessarily make for a bad investment overall.

stfu says

I completely agree with this. There is a night and day difference between professional photos and someone using a mid level DSLR.

I've got some great photo gear and even used to develop and edit my own old-school film back in the day. Still, I hire a pro for my real estate and it pays off. In particular for my maui short term vaycay rental where I have maybe 50 bookings a year.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Booger says

Opendoor taking a bath on this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8353-Calle-Morelos-92126/home/4529149?600390594=

RE investors and home sellers had become addicted to ridiculous annual price appreciation, and so when listing prices are lowered, it still may not mean a loss if the home were owned for a few years, as may be the case with this home. When someone who bought four or five years ago and sells now experiences a negative average annual return, then we're talking. But dropping price from an expected 14% or even 20% YOY price increase, while in the right direction, does not necessarily make for a bad investment overall.

It does for OpenDoor in this case. For others I think a lot of them have HELOCS and are going to walk away when they see their equity evaporate, just like last time.

But people can afford houses:

Power bills are racis'. Expect some Biden bill forgiveness program for POC's.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Power bills are racis'. Expect some Biden bill forgiveness program for POC's.

Dems are really making 3rd world in no time.

Booger says

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been ordered to reduce the amount of 2nd homes and Investment properties they can finance to 7% of their total production.

Translation - Interest rates and costs are going up nationwide on all 2nd home buyers and investment property buyers.

Good! I am now scoping out at lakefront properties and waiting for the prices to fall. I will be a cash buyer.

Booger says

2 price drops in 15 days? No patience at all.

zzyzzx says

It does for OpenDoor in this case.

Hope the person who sold to Opendoor for $1+ million in July sent a thank you to its financiers (nothing like some free money subsidized by VCs...)
$400M BlackRock, Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP)
$300M General Atlantic
$400M SoftBank Vision Fund
$325M Access Technology Ventures, General Atlantic, Lennar Corporation
$210M Norwest Venture Partners

HeadSet says

2 price drops in 15 days? No patience at all.

Got to stay ahead of the market if you want to sell!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11150999/Is-America-verge-new-housing-collapse-Mountain-West-Sun-Belt-overvalued-72.html

Is America on the verge of a house price collapse? Prices could crash by up to 20% and homes are overvalued by as much as 72%, expert warns
Boise, Idaho; Charlotte, North Carolina and Austin, Texas were the three most overvalued areas in the United States, according to Moody's Analytics
Moody's found that found that 183 of the nation's 413 largest regional housing markets are 'overvalued' by more than 25 percent
If a recession hits, house prices in those 183 regions could plummet by as much as 20 percent, Moody's predicted
If there is not a recession, they will still fall 10-15 percent, the analysts believe - echoing other experts
The housing inventory is at its highest level since April 2009, as sellers struggle to get rid of their property because mortgages have become more expensive
Mortgage rates have nearly doubled since January, rising to 5.13 percent for a 30-year loan as of last week, according to Freddie Mac

Patrick says

Boise, Idaho; Charlotte, North Carolina and Austin, Texas were the three most overvalued areas in the United States, according to Moody's Analytics

This is disgraceful. How dare they take away the 'overvalued areas' crown from Coastal California!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-a-remarkably-uncertain-time-redfin-ceo-warns-of-rapidly-cooling-housing-market-says-deals-under-contract-are-being-cancelled-11661467568

‘It’s a remarkably uncertain time’: Redfin CEO warns of rapidly cooling housing market — including the cancellation of deals under contract

After a stellar two-year run, the housing market is sputtering as buyers pull back sharply. One real-estate chief said the market is indeed course correcting, and it’s getting hard to make a deal as more contracts falling through.

With the Federal Reserve hiking benchmark interest rates, “demand fell sharply in May and June … [as] buyers were absolutely freaked out,” Redfin RDFN, -5.75% CEO Glenn Kelman told MarketWatch in an interview.

Since then, the housing market has since recovered somewhat, he noted, but “we still will have, even for the deals that are under contract, a very high cancellation rate.”

“It’s just hard to put deals together because the economy is so volatile,” he added. “It’s a remarkably uncertain time.”

Responding to buyers pulling back from the market, sellers have also become increasingly apprehensive about listing.

New listings for homes have fallen 15% in the four weeks ending Aug. 21, a report published Thursday by Redfin said. That is the biggest decline in listings since the start of the pandemic.

That’s pushing down the supply of homes slightly, Redfin said, as the number of for-sale homes dropped 0.6% from the previous four week period.

To find a match quickly, sellers are pricing their homes more aggressively, with the median asking price of newly listed homes falling 5% from the record high set in May.

But not all sellers are able to find eager buyers. In some hot pandemic markets like Boise, Idaho, 70% of the homes for sale had their prices slashed in July, Redfin said.

Builders are also trying harder to entice buyers, Kelman added, and “just as aggressive” with price cuts as existing-home sellers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shorting-zillow-is-your-best-bet-in-housing-this-year-11661556266

Shorting Zillow Is Your Best Bet in Housing This Year

Think the real-estate market is in for a price cut? The biggest one could still come to Zillow’s stock

Non-paywall version:
https://archive.ph/MHSpJ

U.S. home seekers are desperately eyeing an expected turn in housing prices, but the best near-term deal in real estate could come from yet another price cut to Zillow’s stock.
Having lost two-thirds of its value over the past 12 months on the heels of its home-flipping implosion, Zillow Group has already fallen to a market capitalization of barely $8 billion, despite the fact that virtually every U.S. adult is still “surfing” its namesake site monthly. Zillow might continue to draw a crowd, but that won’t earn a business model based on transactions much money.

More pain is likely coming. On its second-quarter conference call, even Chief Executive Rich Barton, known for his upbeat, colorful divinations, described the housing market as undergoing a “rebalancing.” In July, sales of new single-family homes fell nearly 30% on an annual basis and nearly 13% versus June. New home inventory has ballooned to the highest level in more than a decade. Zillow now expects transactions to “meaningfully contract” as inventory rises this year.
In perhaps the biggest sign that Zillow isn’t expecting a miraculous recovery in the near-term, Mr. Barton said he launched an employee-retention plan this month, including an off-cycle grant of restricted stock units to employees—ultimately accepting an expected 2% dilution over a few years in an attempt to ensure his top talent doesn’t flee over lower compensation, much of which is often based on equity value.

Yet Wall Street might not have fully digested this warning sign. Analysts’ third-quarter sales estimates for Zillow’s agent ads business (its largest) have come down by an average of just 12% since the company’s second-quarter report. On average, those estimates are still 7% above the midpoint of Zillow’s guidance.
Perhaps investors should take Zillow at its word. You might think fewer potential transactions would have agents upping their ad spending to compete for the smaller number of buyers there. But it seems that isn’t the case: Chief Financial Officer Allen Parker candidly said on the second-quarter call earlier this month that in a quickly declining macroeconomic environment, agent ad spending tends to slow down as buyer demand wanes. Importantly, he also said the slowdown in spending on Zillow’s platform tends to lead the market’s transaction declines, implying Zillow could see outsize weakness sooner rather than later.

Zillow’s agents don’t pay for idle eyeballs; they pay for motivated leads. A decline in their platform spending would suggest that, at least when the chips are down, they don’t feel like they are getting enough of those leads yet from Zillow. That might help to explain why 234 million people surf Zillow’s apps and sites monthly (a figure equivalent to over 90% of U.S. adults), but Zillow monetizes only 3% of U.S. real-estate transactions.
Longer-term, this will probably improve. Its new partnership with automated home-flipping market leader Opendoor means Zillow will collect a referral fee when its users choose to sell directly to Opendoor. But the bigger hope is that those whom Opendoor turns down, or who decide to sell the traditional way, can be fed as quality leads to Zillow’s so-called “Premier Agents.” It also brings to the platform home sellers it can try to monetize on a subsequent home purchase, via adjacent services like mortgages, title and escrow.

Getting into bed with the company that just last year was its rival in iBuying had to be hard for Zillow, given its own failure in that business. So its decision to pursue a partnership despite that underscores Zillow’s belief in the scope of the opportunity on the seller side of transactions for its own platform.
Zillow wants to evolve from America’s favorite pastime to its best-paid quarterback on both sides of the real-estate game. The fact that its mobile app has over three times the number of monthly active users as its closest competitor means that, if anyone can do it, Zillow probably can