patrick.net

Coinbase?

Why not just fast forward and shoot yourself in the face now instead of sitting through the entire movie

Buy


Not

stfu says

But I have FOMO on the entire Bitcoin thing even though I would never buy crypto.

Talk me down.

Elementary my dear Watson. Here's a chart of COIN ...



On it, I have the 50 week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 20 week EMA as a contrast.

For a market to be considered 'bullish', it needs to continuously touching and bouncing off that 50 level, which bitcoin was doing, up until this year where it brokedown alongside its peer indexes like the Nasdaq or the Russell 2K.

Now, you're in a situation where you're at best, hoping for it to touch the 20 EMA prior to another sell off.

This is a bear market, not a bullish one.

Rin says

stfu says

But I have FOMO on the entire Bitcoin thing even though I would never buy crypto.

Talk me down.

Elementary my dear Watson. Here's a chart of COIN ...



On it, I have the 50 week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 20 week EMA as a contrast.

For a market to be considered 'bullish', it needs to continuously touching and bouncing off that 50 level, which bitcoin was doing, up until this year where it brokedown alongside its peer indexes like the Nasdaq or the Russell 2K.

Now, you're in a situation where you're at best, hoping for it to touch the 20 EMA prior to another sell off.

This is a bear market, not a bullish one.

Tangential to what Rin said...but bitcoin price should have moved higher just like COIN after the two events you would think would drive them higher. What were those two events?

1. Russia's war with Ukraine (this potentially spiked fear of a nuclear war, etc)
2. Coinbase's Super Bowl ad which was on a platform that about a billion people watched.

There is no longer a bigger market for crypto adoption. Crypto is running out of 'fools' to bid the price higher. I used to be supportive of crypto but I don't believe it will be adopted unless some cryptocurrency maker is able to get it used commercially on a daily life like purchasing food in a country rather than pure speculative investment.

These are my two cents for speculative stock buys that could return more than COIN...SJT, RNLX and AMRS.

1337irr says

There is no longer a bigger market for crypto adoption. Crypto is running out of 'fools' to bid the price higher. I used to be supportive of crypto but I don't believe it will be adopted unless some cryptocurrency maker is able to get it used commercially on a daily life like purchasing food in a country rather than pure speculative investment.

For the latter to happen, there needs to be more infrastructure around it, like apps for buying & selling things/services, without the usual credit card of debit card financial clearinghouses in the middle.

And as of now, cryptos are not digital gold alternatives.

I have a whole thread on Bitcoin and what the exit strategy was ...

https://patrick.net/post/1344089?start=145#comment-1838336

Rin says

Ok, this was the correlation I was looking for, in terms of weekly candlesticks. Realize, the longer the time frame, the better the predictive ability.

1) The Russell finally closes a week outside of the long running price box


2) The EURO is testing a decade long low.



3) The Pound Sterling is just about to enter that same price box of the decade's low.




So the Bitcoin trade is over. I'm selling XBTF at 39 with a take profit of $4 per share, totaling 1200 shares. or $4.8K.

This will be re-visited at a latter time when the market structure is in a better place.

That was April 30 2022, Bitcoin crashed a week later.

Thanks for the bitch slap everyone. COIN was still above $75 when I posted this.

It's going lower today courtesy of the SEC.

OMG P/E is 4.22 this morning per Yahoo. Value stock. If only I had more shekels to bet.

$41.60 in pre-market.

Bitcoin Falls to 2-Year Low on Renewed Contagion Fears

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/22/first-mover-asia-bitcoin-falls-to-2-year-low-on-renewed-contagion-fears/

Crypto Financial Services Firm Eqonex Files for Voluntary Debt Restructuring in Singapore

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/22/crypto-financial-services-firm-eqonex-files-for-voluntary-debt-restructuring-in-singapore/

More Than 50% of Bitcoin Addresses Are Now in Loss

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/21/more-than-50-of-bitcoin-addresses-are-now-in-loss/

Crypto’s Very Human Fatal Flaw: Hero Worship

https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/11/18/cryptos-very-human-fatal-flaw-hero-worship/

stfu says

OMG P/E is 4.22 this morning per Yahoo. Value stock.

It is tempting.
The biggest red flag is quarter to quarter revenue shrinking since to the beginning of the year (as far as I can see due to lower transaction volume). For the past three quarters revenue has fallen:
-53%
-31%
-27%
Its definitely slowing down, but will it abate? And return to an upward trajectory.
Also . they are a founding member of the Centre Consortium and a reseller of USDC, a stablecoin redeemable on a one-to-one basis for U.S.dollars.
Year over year, USDC has increased from $100 million to $368 million on their balance sheet.

Your money would be better spent buying this:

stfu says

OMG P/E is 4.22 this morning per Yahoo. Value stock.

Something appears to be totally screwed up with Yahoo Finance as Coinbase has been operating at a loss this past year. From their latest 10-Q filing:

Coinbase Stock Hits an All-Time Low. Where the Company Goes From Here.
In December of 2021, crypto exchange Coinbase Global was about to cap a banner year: it had gone public with a valuation north of $85 billion and a $328 share price, raised over $3 billion through corporate bond offerings, and would ultimately take in $7.8 billion in annual revenue.
The crypto exchange is on track to close out 2022 in a very different place. Coinbase stock (ticker: COIN) dropped 9.1% last week, only to fall to a new all-time low of $34.51 on Monday, before closing at $35.17. Its bonds maturing in 2028 have gone from trading at 93 cents on the dollar in January to about 53 cents on the dollar on Monday. As Barron’s Joe Light recently reported, yields on company bonds maturing in 2026 have traded at distressed-debt levels that signal more concern about possible default or downgrade.

Meanwhile Cathie Wood's ARK Continues to Buy Coinbase's Dip, Adding $3.2 Million of COIN to Portfolio
The latest purchase means ARK's Innovation ETF holds 5.8 million COIN shares.

So the big question: bargain or bankrupt?

BACK UP THE WAGON, BABY!!!

.stfu says

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN?p=COIN&.tsrc=fin-srch

I don't trade individual stocks. I've learned that the hard way. But I have FOMO on the entire Bitcoin thing even though I would never buy crypto.

Talk me down.

STFU, it was around $75 when you created this discussion. It is now $35.

Hard to know when to jump in and buy shares. But it has lost nearly 95% of its value. At that point, I wonder if would return to $200 share within the next 10 years.

Seems like it is destined for delisting from the exchange and bankruptcy.

Buy the Dips!

'They will come to a bad ending': Just over a year since its $69K peak, Bitcoin has plummeted more than 70% — here's why Warren Buffett has hated cryptocurrency all along

After hitting an all-time peak of around $69,000 per unit on November 10, 2021, the world's leading digital currency has since erased roughly 75% of its value, sitting at $16,600 as of the end of the trading day on Dec. 19.

Other than Bitcoin's disappointing track record, here are three more reasons Buffett won’t go near it.

1. It has ‘no unique value at all’

2. He doesn’t think crypto counts as money

3. He doesn’t understand it

Buffett became one of the most successful investors in history by sticking with stocks he understands.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/come-bad-ending-just-over-120000862.html

DD214 says

Buffett became one of the most successful investors in history by sticking with stocks he understands.

Buffet is connected to the government. That's how he's successful. He was a huge beneficiary of the bailouts in 2007. The reason pipelines are being shutdown between Canada and the United States is that he's invested in rail to do the same thing.

He's a welfare whore. Nearly every billionaire is.

DD214 says

1. It has ‘no unique value at all’

This is all there is to it really. There has to be some backing asset, product, resource, military, etc. It's a spreadsheet. There are free services online for that. You can make up a coin with open source software and market it. Bitcoin marketed that it's finite and you can "mine" it. It was clever. It won't go away, but it will see double digits and maybe single digits in our lifetime.

At certain price points it becomes unprofitable to mine bitcoin. A few of the larger miners have already gone BK. Of course, they were leveraged. but only the suckers have their own money exposed. For everyone else it is other people's money.

Crypto 2023

After FTX, Where Does the Industry Go From Here? A Series Exploring What Could, and Should, Happen in the Year To Come. Presented by Bitstamp.

Featured

10 Predictions for the Future of Crypto in 2023

CoinDesk Market Outlook: 4Q Crypto Gloom Spills Into 2023

What Will 2023 Bring for CBDCs?

The 10 Biggest Developments in Bitcoin in 2022

https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/

There is no volume on the crypto exchanges anymore.

The percentage of borrowed funds compared to equity in the cryptos is extremely high.

Everyone who could get out has gotten out. The people who loaned money into this space will be wiped out as well as the Holders.

Nouriel Roubini says 'literally 90% of crypto is a scam'
DAVOS, Switzerland — Economist Nouriel Roubini is ratcheting up his fiery commentary on the stricken cryptocurrency industry, particularly toward FTX and its now-disgraced founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, commonly known as SBF.

"FTX and SBF are not an exception — they're a rule," the NYU professor, who is known as "Dr. Doom" for his dire perspectives on global trends, said on Yahoo Finance Live at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday (video above). "Literally 90% of crypto is a scam. A criminal activity. A total real-bubble Ponzi scheme that is going bust."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nouriel-roubini-says-literally-90-of-crypto-is-a-scam-144628433.html

REpro says

Nouriel Roubini says 'literally 90% of crypto is a scam'

Is he THAT dumb? 100% of crypto is a scam.

It's probably about 300% of crypto is a scam. Yes, there is that much fake crypto held at the exchanges.

crypto to millennials is like gold to boomers.

RWSGFY says

BACK UP THE WAGON, BABY!!!

Pretty good call. Over fifty percent gain for COIN in one month. Is the cat bouncing...

Misc says

It's probably about 300% of crypto is a scam. Yes, there is that much fake crypto held at the exchanges.

It’s all fake. If you can’t hold it in your hand it might as well be pixie dust.