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50, 75, 100?


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2022 Jun 13, 5:04am   46,165 views  308 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

This "relentlessly aggressive" stance could include raising interest rates by 0.75% on Wednesday, a move economists at Barclays said Friday is now their baseline expectation.

"Historically, the US central bank has avoided surprising markets – say, by going 75bp when it is not priced in," Barclays economists led by Jonathan Millar said in a note to clients published Friday.

"But next week, we feel, is likely to be an exception."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-puts-pressure-on-powell-what-to-know-this-week-162615319.html

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153   Patrick   2023 Jan 18, 11:52am  

AmericanKulak says

Where's Patrick with his chart about productivity and wage increases?

Wages are way behind productivity gains for about 50 years, there's plenty of room for wage improvement.

Plus we had decades of low interest rates and money printing, so capital is definitely not the problem.


Here's the chart:




https://patrick.net/post/1341417/2021-09-20-wtf-happened-in-1971
154   HeadSet   2023 Jan 18, 5:58pm  

Tenpoundbass says

The greatest trick the establishment ever did, was convince the savers, that we need low interest rates

Savers were not tricked into thinking low interest rates was a good idea, low interest rates were steamrollered onto savers with the support of reckless borrowers.
155   zzyzzx   2023 Jan 20, 6:43am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-williams-says-fed-needs-233645417.html

Fed's Williams says Fed needs more rate rises to cool inflation
156   HeadSet   2023 Jan 20, 8:24am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-williams-says-fed-needs-233645417.html

Fed's Williams says Fed needs more rate rises to cool inflation

Thursday the U.S. central bank has more rate hikes ahead

GOOD!
157   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 1, 11:27am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rates-decision-february-1-174421486.html

Federal Reserve raises interest rates another 0.25%

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates Wednesday by a quarter percentage point, bringing its benchmark rate to a new range of 4.50% and 4.75%, the highest level since October 2007.
158   clambo   2023 Feb 1, 4:43pm  

Stocks for the long run.
159   GNL   2023 Feb 1, 4:47pm  

clambo says

Stocks for the long run.

Are you saying stocks are at a low? Higher rates will help?
160   clambo   2023 Feb 1, 5:04pm  

I'm saying I am happy that they raised interest rates only 0.25%, and the stock market was happy too.
Higher rates don't help, rather hurt stock prices.
When interest rates were almost 0%, and the the stock market dividend yield was 1.9%, everyone loved buying stocks.
When interest rates go much higher than the dividend yield, investors think about owning something besides stocks.
There is always new money out there looking for a place to be invested.
I'm going to let my capital appreciate for a few more years, and then start concentrating on income investments such as bond funds, dividend stock funds ("equity income" funds).
161   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Feb 2, 3:30am  

There is a significant response lag (9 months?) for the rise in rates to hit the economy. We are just seeing the effects of the initial rate hikes. Stay tuned.
162   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 2, 5:19am  

Weak. .25 means the next hikes, if they occur, will also be measly .25 which isn't going to tame inflation anytime soon.
163   Onvacation   2023 Feb 2, 5:57am  

clambo says

There is always new money out there looking for a place to be invested.

I wish the mf'ers would stop printing it.
165   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 16, 10:56am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/least-two-more-fed-rate-070207438.html

At least two more Fed rate hikes and no cut this year, say economists

With inflation still at more than twice the Fed's 2.0% target, 46 of 86 economists in the Feb. 8-13 Reuters poll predicted the U.S. central bank will go for two more 25 basis point hikes, in March and May, not just March.
166   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Feb 16, 11:12am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-qualifying-rate-canada-may-184048144.html

Mortgage-Qualifying Rate in Canada May Top 8% After Latest Central Bank Hike


inflation fucking nuts, they struggling to keep it down
169   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Mar 2, 6:47am  

The 10 year UST is now over 4%. Do I hear 5?


170   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 7, 8:18am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Dow falls 200 points as Powell says rates are headed higher than expected

The comments seemed to suggest that the Fed may implement a larger rate hike than last month’s 25 basis point increase at its next policy meeting on March 21-22.
171   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Mar 19, 7:28am  

Market views on what's next for the benchmark fed funds rate have been whipped around recently. The Fed earlier this month appeared set to deliver a rate hike of 25 or 50 basis points, its ninth consecutive increase, as it deals with inflation sitting well above its 2% target.

Traders then began pricing in a possible pause for March after the collapse and seizure of Silicon Valley Bank fanned fears about a broader crisis in the banking sector.

Heading into Wednesday's decision, odds were tilted again toward an increase of 25 basis points in the fed funds rate, to a range of 4.75%-5%.
…………..
A pause would make people think the Fed has lost interest in fighting inflation. On the other hand, an increase of 50 basis-points is too much for some banks to handle at this point.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/svb-collapse-federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rates-bank-crisis-2023-3?op=1
172   Blue   2023 Mar 19, 12:19pm  

Inflation varies widely between places. It should be 10% in the silly con valley for the last few years. In 3y, 1.1^3=33% and double in 7y unless there is a lot of productivity to offset. Cash is trash as long as (massive) QE is on in various forms including bank bailouts.
173   AD   2023 Mar 19, 3:29pm  

Blue says

Inflation varies widely between places. It should be 10% in the silly con valley for the last few years. In 3y, 1.1^3=33% and double in 7y unless there is a lot of productivity to offset. Cash is trash as long as (massive) QE is on in various forms including bank bailouts.


The workforce culture is what has a lot of effect on productivity and innovation. I recall the 1990s and the culture was do-more-with-less, total quality management, six sigma, Toyota Production System, etc. Yes we had "diversity Thursdays" where we had some form of political correctness training.

So they could jack of interest rates but costs may not go down because the quality of the workforce sucks or is more third world, including the executives (such as at silicon valley bank) are overpaid Woke operatives.

But now I heard all of that like culture emphasis on total quality management (TQM) has been shelved and has disappeared whereas it is all about ESG and DEI.

I wonder if DEI and ESG can co-exist with the culture of TQM and Six Sigma as well as "strive for excellence"

.
176   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Mar 22, 9:50am  

Stock market news today: Stocks slide with all eyes on Fed meeting
Here's what's moving markets on Wednesday, March 22, 2023.

The Fed releases its decision and economic projections at 2 p.m. ET, and Powell gives a statement and takes questions starting around 2:30 p.m. ET.

“Powell’s challenge in the press conference will be to maintain focus on fighting inflation while signaling flexibility in how they deal with the banking crisis,” Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at JPMorgan, wrote in a note to clients.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-march-22-2023-123738540.html



177   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 22, 11:02am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-monetary-policy-march-22-164807780.html

Federal Reserve raises interest rates 0.25%

The rate hike brings the Fed’s policy rate, the federal funds rate, to a new range of 4.75% and 5%,
178   zzyzzx   2023 Apr 12, 8:18am  

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US3M

3 month Tbill rates over 5%


179   AD   2023 Apr 12, 10:12am  

zzyzzx says


3 month Tbill rates over 5%


Yield curve is inverted, not normal :-(
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180   AD   2023 Apr 12, 10:18am  

I saw today's CPI report.

12 month inflation or CPI is 5%. It was 6% last month.

CPI went up 0.4% from last month, mostly driven by housing costs. Egg prices and gas went down.

Economists were expect 5.2% and 0.2% (not 5% and 0.4%).

So now CPI is not greater than the Fed Funds rate, which is 5%.

When CPI gets below 1% of the Fed Funds rate, then there is enough margin to consider that real interest rates are positive.

Go back to Obama admin when 7 out of 8 years the Fed Funds rate was 0.25% and annual inflation was average around 1.5%.

A vast majority of Obama's terms were during negative interest rates.
,
181   AD   2023 Apr 12, 1:33pm  

.

With CPI dropping to 5% and equal to the Fed Funds rate, seems like the Federal Reserve will cap the Fed Funds rate to 5.25% or 5.5%.

Granted the monthly change was +0.4% from February to March 2023, but inflation seems to be more under control.
.
182   HeadSet   2023 Apr 12, 6:06pm  

ad says

12 month inflation or CPI is 5%

That explicitly omits rents and fuel.
183   Blue   2023 Apr 12, 6:13pm  

HeadSet says

ad says


12 month inflation or CPI is 5%

That explicitly omits rents and fuel.

Lol! They always ignore items that are outside certain ranges. Not so useful in general.
184   AD   2023 Apr 12, 6:20pm  

HeadSet says


That explicitly omits rents and fuel.


No, it is the overall CPI which obviously includes rent, energy, and food. Overall CPI (i.e., inflation for last 12 months) is 5%.

I believe you may be thinking of the core CPI which omits food and energy.

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185   HeadSet   2023 Apr 12, 7:11pm  

ad says

I believe you may be thinking of the core CPI which omits food and energy.

True, but it is that core CPI that went up over 5%.
But core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items and capture longer-lasting trends, increased 0.4% from February following a 0.5% bump in the previous month. That pushed up the annual increase from 5.5% to 5.6%.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2023/04/12/cpi-inflation-data-today-live-updates/11607115002/
186   AD   2023 Apr 12, 8:31pm  

HeadSet says


True, but it is that core CPI that went up over 5%.


Yes, but overall CPI is 5%. For me, overall CPI has more of an impact on my household finances.

Core CPI is just a large aggregate or component of overall CPI.

.
188   Tenpoundbass   2023 Apr 21, 5:19am  

Interest rates need to be 12%, that would put an end to $35,000 starter cars with 72 month payment schedules. .
189   WookieMan   2023 Apr 21, 5:30am  

Tenpoundbass says

Interest rates need to be 12%, that would put an end to $35,000 starter cars with 72 month payment schedules. .

Problem is if they were able to sell them at that price, they'll keep trying.... and so will the buyers. We're in a tricky period that I don't claim to understand. I think most auto buyers without means/income are probably already paying close to 12%. Obviously shit credit buyers are paying way more. But someone with a 620-40 middle score is for sure at 12%.
190   zzyzzx   2023 Apr 21, 7:39am  

WookieMan says

Problem is if they were able to sell them at that price, they'll keep trying.... and so will the buyers


Yet still another case where stupid people willing to overpay ruin it for everyone. The banks are supposedly wising up and not giving out loans at excessive LTV, meaning you can't borrow 160% of the price of the car any more.
191   zzyzzx   2023 May 3, 11:12am  

up another .25%
192   AD   2023 May 3, 10:02pm  

zzyzzx says


up another .25%


The Fed Funds rate is now between 5% and 5.25% and at 1990's levels.

It will be interesting to see how GDP and unemployment fares over next 6 months considering that for 7 out of 8 years during the Obama Administration the rate was at 0.25%.

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