patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,252,542 comments by 14,951 users - desertguy, mell, Patrick online now
housing prices peak 2
invite response
2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 601,366 views 5,634 comments
by AD ➕follow (1) 💰tip ignore
« First « Previous Comments 1,953 - 1,992 of 5,634 Next » Last » Search these comments
1953
zzyzzx
2023 Apr 20, 10:13am
zzyzzx
2023 Apr 20, 10:13am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/western-housing-market-recession-hit-093553018.html
The Western housing market recession hit so hard and fast that a Fortune 500 firm that was riding high at $34 per share has crashed to $1
Nestled in the sprawling desert community of North Las Vegas, the three-bedroom home at 6043 Clovelly St. perfectly embodies what has gone terribly wrong at Opendoor Technologies. Back in April 2022, Opendoor bought the home for $420,900. The company then flipped it back onto the market in May 2022 for $480,000, only it was too late: Las Vegas had already shifted from a housing boom into a sharp housing correction. By the time the home sold in January 2023, Opendoor only fetched $346,000—or 17.8% less than the purchase price.
On Tuesday, the company announced it would lay off another 560 staffers, or 22% of its remaining workforce.
The Western housing market recession hit so hard and fast that a Fortune 500 firm that was riding high at $34 per share has crashed to $1
Nestled in the sprawling desert community of North Las Vegas, the three-bedroom home at 6043 Clovelly St. perfectly embodies what has gone terribly wrong at Opendoor Technologies. Back in April 2022, Opendoor bought the home for $420,900. The company then flipped it back onto the market in May 2022 for $480,000, only it was too late: Las Vegas had already shifted from a housing boom into a sharp housing correction. By the time the home sold in January 2023, Opendoor only fetched $346,000—or 17.8% less than the purchase price.
On Tuesday, the company announced it would lay off another 560 staffers, or 22% of its remaining workforce.
1954
Blue
2023 Apr 20, 11:01am
Misc says
In one perspective, rich want their servant class to be around with gov money while they paying less for their services. Indirectly it’s a subsidy to the rich. That’s why they only pay to few folks. They don’t want to help all with less regulations to bring the affordability to many.
Why else would the government start subsidizing mortgage rates for those with poor credit, except to help them ??????
In one perspective, rich want their servant class to be around with gov money while they paying less for their services. Indirectly it’s a subsidy to the rich. That’s why they only pay to few folks. They don’t want to help all with less regulations to bring the affordability to many.
1955
GNL
2023 Apr 20, 2:32pm
GNL
2023 Apr 20, 2:32pm
Blue says
I believe TPTB do think this way. Whatever is best for them as long as they don't help too many people.
Misc says
Why else would the government start subsidizing mortgage rates for those with poor credit, except to help them ??????
In one perspective, rich want their servant class to be around with gov money while they paying less for their services. Indirectly it’s a subsidy to the rich. That’s why they only pay to few folks. They don’t want to help all with less regulations to bring the affordability to many.
I believe TPTB do think this way. Whatever is best for them as long as they don't help too many people.
1956
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 20, 5:15pm
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 20, 5:15pm
Eman says
I'm not focusing on the financials, I'm focusing on the ownership. Even if you pay off the house, the state still owns 20%. Do you really trust the government enough to give them 20% ownership of your private dwelling?
BTW, saw nobody posted, money ran out in 10 days!
Who will give you 20% in equity upfront with 0% interest for the duration of your ownership? All they ask is that they share 20% of the appreciation when you sell? It’s a very generous program IMO. They are basically a silent 2nd lender with 0% interest in exchange for future appreciation not to exceed 20%
I'm not focusing on the financials, I'm focusing on the ownership. Even if you pay off the house, the state still owns 20%. Do you really trust the government enough to give them 20% ownership of your private dwelling?
BTW, saw nobody posted, money ran out in 10 days!
1957
SunnyvaleCA
2023 Apr 20, 7:49pm
NuttBoxer says
I'm not nobody, but please see post 1948.
BTW, saw nobody posted, money ran out in 10 days!
I'm not nobody, but please see post 1948.
1958
SunnyvaleCA
2023 Apr 20, 7:56pm
NuttBoxer says
I believe that when you sell, you hand over 20% of the after-expenses sales price. But if you never sell, then that was just free money. The benefits are not having to put any money in and also having basically no risk. If you default, the taxpayer is on the hook.
I sure hope you are required to pay off the 20% if you turn the place into a rental. Seems to me that not losing 20% of the sales price is a huge incentive to turn it into a rental. Yay, the policy is promoting turning California into a rental community, precisely the opposite of the purported intention. In some parts of the state (certainly not my place!) rental income exceeds the mortgage (well... back with 3% mortgages). In that case you could just put no money down, have the government pay the 20% down payment, and start collecting profitable rent immediately!
I'm not focusing on the financials, I'm focusing on the ownership. Even if you pay off the house, the state still owns 20%. Do you really trust the government enough to give them 20% ownership of your private dwelling?
I believe that when you sell, you hand over 20% of the after-expenses sales price. But if you never sell, then that was just free money. The benefits are not having to put any money in and also having basically no risk. If you default, the taxpayer is on the hook.
I sure hope you are required to pay off the 20% if you turn the place into a rental. Seems to me that not losing 20% of the sales price is a huge incentive to turn it into a rental. Yay, the policy is promoting turning California into a rental community, precisely the opposite of the purported intention. In some parts of the state (certainly not my place!) rental income exceeds the mortgage (well... back with 3% mortgages). In that case you could just put no money down, have the government pay the 20% down payment, and start collecting profitable rent immediately!
1959
GNL
2023 Apr 21, 6:57am
GNL
2023 Apr 21, 6:57am
Can't we all simply state the fact that government is taking over the economy? That is the opposite of what we should all want. But no, G.R.E.E.D. Greed is what is going to turn this country into a shithole renter economy. And worse. Can't you see that?
1960
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 21, 9:21am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 21, 9:21am
SunnyvaleCA says
You're still lost in buying and selling, without ever considering the ramifications of owning only 80% of your property. If you don't understand what happens when you give government a bigger foothold in your private home, I don't know what else to say.
And you talk about the taxpayer like he's not you...
I believe that when you sell, you hand over 20% of the after-expenses sales price. But if you never sell, then that was just free money. The benefits are not having to put any money in and also having basically no risk. If you default, the taxpayer is on the hook.
You're still lost in buying and selling, without ever considering the ramifications of owning only 80% of your property. If you don't understand what happens when you give government a bigger foothold in your private home, I don't know what else to say.
And you talk about the taxpayer like he's not you...
1961
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 21, 9:22am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 21, 9:22am
GNL says
I did, it's called Communism...
Can't wait all simply staye the fact that government is taking over the economy?
I did, it's called Communism...
1962
SunnyvaleCA
2023 Apr 21, 1:47pm
NuttBoxer says
I'm not saying this is a good policy. It sure doesn't do anything to help me, since I already "own" a home. And I believe this policy will be destabilizing if it is rolled out on a massive scale.
But you never really own your house or the dirt it is on. If you don't believe me try putting in your own well and septic tank and stop paying your water and sewage bill. Or try skipping a few property tax payments... why should you continuously have to pay for something you own, right?
So, yeah, we here at PatNet all believe this is terrible policy. But, we can still have fun discussing it. And maybe we could even find creative ways that some people could take advantage of it (at the expense of society as a whole).
Seems like this could be a great way for someone to start landloarding. Find a house that you could rent out for more than the mortgage + taxes. That wouldn't be my shack, but I've seen some duplexes that would fit the bill nicely. Buy it with no money down and immediately turn it into a rental. Profitable from day one. If you go to sell, any gains — even if you lose 20% of those gains — are still infinite return on your $0 investment. If you're worried about losing that 20% when you sell, buy a house that is 20% more valuable to compensate. Since you put no money down, if something goes wrong you can just walk away. Presumably, there are rules in place to prevent exactly this, but a whole bunch of rentals are breaking a bunch of rules all over the place.
Or consider that maybe you actually do want to buy a house and you actually have the 20% downpayment. Now, get the taxpayers to fund the downpayment on a more expensive house than you were planning to buy. Use your money instead to pay for the increased mortgage and taxes. Since you bought a more expensive house, your gains will be similar to the base scenario of a cheaper house even if you give back 20% to the taxpayers. If you wind up underwater or just plain defaulting after a few years, you walk away with just having payed a larger mortgage for a few years. If you survive long-term, then you're living in a better house than the base scenario. Seems like this deal allows you to reduce risks and get a more expensive house for a modest monthly payment increase.
You're still lost in buying and selling, without ever considering the ramifications of owning only 80% of your property. If you don't understand what happens when you give government a bigger foothold in your private home, I don't know what else to say.
And you talk about the taxpayer like he's not you...
I'm not saying this is a good policy. It sure doesn't do anything to help me, since I already "own" a home. And I believe this policy will be destabilizing if it is rolled out on a massive scale.
But you never really own your house or the dirt it is on. If you don't believe me try putting in your own well and septic tank and stop paying your water and sewage bill. Or try skipping a few property tax payments... why should you continuously have to pay for something you own, right?
So, yeah, we here at PatNet all believe this is terrible policy. But, we can still have fun discussing it. And maybe we could even find creative ways that some people could take advantage of it (at the expense of society as a whole).
Seems like this could be a great way for someone to start landloarding. Find a house that you could rent out for more than the mortgage + taxes. That wouldn't be my shack, but I've seen some duplexes that would fit the bill nicely. Buy it with no money down and immediately turn it into a rental. Profitable from day one. If you go to sell, any gains — even if you lose 20% of those gains — are still infinite return on your $0 investment. If you're worried about losing that 20% when you sell, buy a house that is 20% more valuable to compensate. Since you put no money down, if something goes wrong you can just walk away. Presumably, there are rules in place to prevent exactly this, but a whole bunch of rentals are breaking a bunch of rules all over the place.
Or consider that maybe you actually do want to buy a house and you actually have the 20% downpayment. Now, get the taxpayers to fund the downpayment on a more expensive house than you were planning to buy. Use your money instead to pay for the increased mortgage and taxes. Since you bought a more expensive house, your gains will be similar to the base scenario of a cheaper house even if you give back 20% to the taxpayers. If you wind up underwater or just plain defaulting after a few years, you walk away with just having payed a larger mortgage for a few years. If you survive long-term, then you're living in a better house than the base scenario. Seems like this deal allows you to reduce risks and get a more expensive house for a modest monthly payment increase.
1963
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 21, 2:25pm
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 21, 2:25pm
SunnyvaleCA says
That's up to you. There are a number of states with no property tax. And if you live in the country, you have to have a well, septic, and may even use propane/solar for power.
Not against picking the bones, but I think it's important to point out Communism when I see it.
But you never really own your house or the dirt it is on. If you don't believe me try putting in your own well and septic tank and stop paying your water and sewage bill. Or try skipping a few property tax payments... why should you continuously have to pay for something you own, right?
That's up to you. There are a number of states with no property tax. And if you live in the country, you have to have a well, septic, and may even use propane/solar for power.
Not against picking the bones, but I think it's important to point out Communism when I see it.
1964
Eman
2023 Apr 21, 3:27pm
Eman
2023 Apr 21, 3:27pm
Very interesting take/info from Compass CEO Robert Reffkin. I haven’t bought anything since 2020. 🤔
Thoughts on the Spring Market
1. Buyers have accepted 6% mortgage rates as the new normal.
2. Mortgage purchase applications have increased 8 out of the past 10 weeks.
3. There is a lack of inventory, however, inventory is 60% higher compared to this time last year.
4. Buyer demand continues to be strong, with home prices up in both March and February sequentially.
5. Open house traffic has picked up dramatically, with multiple offer situations becoming more common in markets across the country.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/20/buyers-have-accepted-6-percent-mortgage-rates-as-the-new-normal-compass-co-founder-and-ceo.html
Thoughts on the Spring Market
1. Buyers have accepted 6% mortgage rates as the new normal.
2. Mortgage purchase applications have increased 8 out of the past 10 weeks.
3. There is a lack of inventory, however, inventory is 60% higher compared to this time last year.
4. Buyer demand continues to be strong, with home prices up in both March and February sequentially.
5. Open house traffic has picked up dramatically, with multiple offer situations becoming more common in markets across the country.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/20/buyers-have-accepted-6-percent-mortgage-rates-as-the-new-normal-compass-co-founder-and-ceo.html
1965
GNL
2023 Apr 21, 5:13pm
GNL
2023 Apr 21, 5:13pm
Eman says
Makes perfect sense...higher rates + higher inventory + higher prices = higher demand.
Very interesting take/info from Compass CEO Robert Reffkin. I haven’t bought anything since 2020. 🤔
Thoughts on the Spring Market
1. Buyers have accepted 6% mortgage rates as the new normal.
2. Mortgage purchase applications have increased 8 out of the past 10 weeks.
3. There is a lack of inventory, however, inventory is 60% higher compared to this time last year.
4. Buyer demand continues to be strong, with home prices up in both March and February sequentially.
5. Open house traffic has picked up dramatically, with multiple offer situations becoming more common in markets across the country.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/20/buyers-have-accepted-6-percent-mortgage-rates-as-the-new-normal-compass-co-founder-and-ceo.html
Makes perfect sense...higher rates + higher inventory + higher prices = higher demand.
1966
Eman
2023 Apr 21, 7:22pm
Eman
2023 Apr 21, 7:22pm
GNL says
Eman says
Very interesting take/info from Compass CEO Robert Reffkin. I haven’t bought anything since 2020. 🤔
Thoughts on the Spring Market
1. Buyers have accepted 6% mortgage rates as the new normal.
2. Mortgage purchase applications have increased 8 out of the past 10 weeks.
3. There is a lack of inventory, however, inventory is 60% higher compared to this time last year.
4. Buyer demand continues to be strong, with home prices up in both March and February sequentially.
5. Open house traffic has picked up dramatically, with multiple offer situations becoming more common in markets across the country.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/20/buyers-have-accepted-6-percent-mortgage-rates...
I guess you’re being sarcastic? Higher inventory usually means lower prices. However, inventory was super low last spring so a 60% increase from last spring is not much. Last spring was a perfect storm. Historically low inventory coupled with super low mortgage rates drove prices so high.
Things have been kind of stuck in no man’s land. As much as some people want to upgrade, they can’t afford to pay the 6% rate while giving up their sub 3% mortgage. Only the people who have to sell, sell. Also no distressed sales. That’s why inventory is still relatively low.
1967
WookieMan
2023 Apr 21, 7:31pm
WookieMan
2023 Apr 21, 7:31pm
NuttBoxer says
Let me know the state? I've yet to hear of this. Income tax for sure isn't assessed in every state, so not sure if it was a typo. Make me look like an idiot but every state has property tax. And all the low property tax states are in brutal areas generally. Super cold or super hot.
That's up to you. There are a number of states with no property tax. And if you live in the country, you have to have a well, septic, and may even use propane/solar for power.
Let me know the state? I've yet to hear of this. Income tax for sure isn't assessed in every state, so not sure if it was a typo. Make me look like an idiot but every state has property tax. And all the low property tax states are in brutal areas generally. Super cold or super hot.
1968
Patrick
2023 Apr 21, 8:42pm
Patrick
2023 Apr 21, 8:42pm
https://sfstandard.com/politics/to-jump-start-housing-san-francisco-could-cut-affordability-quotas/
What, a glimmer of sanity in San Francisco?
As part of an effort to make it more financially feasible to build housing in the city, an advisory committee on San Francisco’s affordable housing policy has recommended a significant cut in the percentage of required affordable units in condominium projects.
What, a glimmer of sanity in San Francisco?
1969
SunnyvaleCA
2023 Apr 21, 8:52pm
WookieMan says
Yep. Me too. I'm still looking for that mythical no-property-tax state.
NuttBoxer says
That's up to you. There are a number of states with no property tax. And if you live in the country, you have to have a well, septic, and may even use propane/solar for power.
Let me know the state? I've yet to hear of this. Income tax for sure isn't assessed in every state, so not sure if it was a typo. Make me look like an idiot but every state has property tax. And all the low property tax states are in brutal areas generally. Super cold or super hot.
Yep. Me too. I'm still looking for that mythical no-property-tax state.
1970
WookieMan
2023 Apr 22, 3:28am
WookieMan
2023 Apr 22, 3:28am
Patrick says
These have always been dumb quotas. What happens is the developers grab shit land thinking they'll sell for good area prices because they're new and in a gentrifying pocket. I'm not living across the hall or next door to a piece of trash that doesn't maintain and brings their trash with them as in friends and has parties till 3am because they have the nicest place.
Then the market rate units don't sell and the developer drops the prices as first in owners see their values drop right away. It's like a $10 IPO. Regular traders pay $10. This special class gets the shares at $2 because they're poor. These projects are almost always a failure once the developer breaks even and starts a fire sale to rinse his hands of the remaining units.
We can't steer in real estate. So we'd show these place, but just mention the negatives. Generally really cheap construction and the aforementioned problems. Once a building or homes are settled it gets rough around the edges even if nice in the surround community.
https://sfstandard.com/politics/to-jump-start-housing-san-francisco-could-cut-affordability-quotas/
As part of an effort to make it more financially feasible to build housing in the city, an advisory committee on San Francisco’s affordable housing policy has recommended a significant cut in the percentage of required affordable units in condominium projects.
What, a glimmer of sanity in San Francisco?
These have always been dumb quotas. What happens is the developers grab shit land thinking they'll sell for good area prices because they're new and in a gentrifying pocket. I'm not living across the hall or next door to a piece of trash that doesn't maintain and brings their trash with them as in friends and has parties till 3am because they have the nicest place.
Then the market rate units don't sell and the developer drops the prices as first in owners see their values drop right away. It's like a $10 IPO. Regular traders pay $10. This special class gets the shares at $2 because they're poor. These projects are almost always a failure once the developer breaks even and starts a fire sale to rinse his hands of the remaining units.
We can't steer in real estate. So we'd show these place, but just mention the negatives. Generally really cheap construction and the aforementioned problems. Once a building or homes are settled it gets rough around the edges even if nice in the surround community.
1971
porkchopXpress
2023 Apr 22, 6:02am
porkchopXpress
2023 Apr 22, 6:02am
As some of you may know, I bought a house in a great area of middle TN. We were renting in San Diego for years and the madness and vaccine mandates allowed me to convince my wife and two sons to get the hell out. I truly thought we were buying at the peak last Summer but I didn't care at this point and wanted to own our home and not stress about rising rents, getting kicked out, etc.
Almost a year later, prices haven't hard dropped at all and we're now at least 2% higher interest rates. I thought buying a house last year was hard...this year is twice as bad. Even though I wish I had moved away from CA years before and bought a house, I can honestly say I'm so happy we bought last year. No rent increase letter this year. No threat of getting kicked out of our rental. No more shitty appliances we can't upgrade.
Having said that, we bought well within our means and with lots of cash to upgrade the house, so we're loving that part. Anyone who stretched their budgets to buy a house may get totally screwed especially if it's in an undesirable location or "Zoom town".
Almost a year later, prices haven't hard dropped at all and we're now at least 2% higher interest rates. I thought buying a house last year was hard...this year is twice as bad. Even though I wish I had moved away from CA years before and bought a house, I can honestly say I'm so happy we bought last year. No rent increase letter this year. No threat of getting kicked out of our rental. No more shitty appliances we can't upgrade.
Having said that, we bought well within our means and with lots of cash to upgrade the house, so we're loving that part. Anyone who stretched their budgets to buy a house may get totally screwed especially if it's in an undesirable location or "Zoom town".
1972
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 22, 8:32am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Apr 22, 8:32am
WookieMan says
SunnyvaleCA says
I saw South Dakota before, but apparently that is a over 65 exemption, which is shared with a number of other states. Now outside the US:
https://www.globalfromasia.com/tax-free-countries/
Let me know the state?
SunnyvaleCA says
Yep. Me too. I'm still looking for that mythical no-property-tax state.
I saw South Dakota before, but apparently that is a over 65 exemption, which is shared with a number of other states. Now outside the US:
https://www.globalfromasia.com/tax-free-countries/
1974
Eric Holder
2023 Apr 26, 3:38pm
Eric Holder
2023 Apr 26, 3:38pm
SunnyvaleCA says
ROTFLMAO
WookieMan says
NuttBoxer says
That's up to you. There are a number of states with no property tax. And if you live in the country, you have to have a well, septic, and may even use propane/solar for power.
Let me know the state? I've yet to hear of this. Income tax for sure isn't assessed in every state, so not sure if it was a typo. Make me look like an idiot but every state has property tax. And all the low property tax states are in brutal areas generally. Super cold or super hot.
Yep. Me too. I'm still looking for that mythical no-property-tax state.
ROTFLMAO
1975
zzyzzx
2023 May 2, 8:04am
zzyzzx
2023 May 2, 8:04am
https://thehill.com/business/3981734-foreclosures-are-up-but-is-the-housing-market-headed-for-a-crash/
Foreclosures are up
Foreclosure notices ticked up nationwide in the first quarter of the year with more than 65,000 properties beginning to go through the process.
There were 36,617 new filings in March, which marks the 23rd consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity, according to a recent report from ATTOM. They were up 3 percent from the previous quarter and 29 percent year-over-year.
ATTOM’s report shows that 1 in every 1,459 housing units across the country had a foreclosure start in the first quarter. California, Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois were among the states with the highest number of foreclosure filings while the highest rate was in Illinois. Banks repossessed 12,518 properties via foreclosure in the first quarter — up 8 percent from the previous quarter.
“This unfortunate trend can be attributed to a variety of factors, such as rising unemployment rates, foreclosure filings making their way through the pipeline after two years of government intervention, and other ongoing economic challenges,” Barber added.
The federal moratorium on foreclosures throughout the pandemic expired last June. Even so, Barber said the equity homeowners built in recent years could keep a crisis at bay.
Foreclosures are up
Foreclosure notices ticked up nationwide in the first quarter of the year with more than 65,000 properties beginning to go through the process.
There were 36,617 new filings in March, which marks the 23rd consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity, according to a recent report from ATTOM. They were up 3 percent from the previous quarter and 29 percent year-over-year.
ATTOM’s report shows that 1 in every 1,459 housing units across the country had a foreclosure start in the first quarter. California, Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois were among the states with the highest number of foreclosure filings while the highest rate was in Illinois. Banks repossessed 12,518 properties via foreclosure in the first quarter — up 8 percent from the previous quarter.
“This unfortunate trend can be attributed to a variety of factors, such as rising unemployment rates, foreclosure filings making their way through the pipeline after two years of government intervention, and other ongoing economic challenges,” Barber added.
The federal moratorium on foreclosures throughout the pandemic expired last June. Even so, Barber said the equity homeowners built in recent years could keep a crisis at bay.
1978
zzyzzx
2023 May 2, 8:50am
zzyzzx
2023 May 2, 8:50am
https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/134puir/mortgage_company_closed_a_week_before_closing/
Mortgage Company Closed A Week Before Closing
Mortgage Company Closed A Week Before Closing
1979
zzyzzx
2023 May 2, 10:07am
zzyzzx
2023 May 2, 10:07am
https://www.reddit.com/r/homeowners/comments/1345gqf/new_homeowners_insurance_policy_will_be_more_than/
New homeowner's insurance policy will be more than my mortgage. What would you do?
New homeowner's insurance policy will be more than my mortgage. What would you do?
1980
AD
2023 May 2, 9:02pm
AD
2023 May 2, 9:02pm
zzyzzx says
So the bottom for U.S. median home price in the upcoming housing crash will be near the peak at the last housing boom (~2009-2011) ?
Looks like the bottom for the the 2009-2011 housing crash was near the peak for the housing boom in 1989.
.
So the bottom for U.S. median home price in the upcoming housing crash will be near the peak at the last housing boom (~2009-2011) ?
Looks like the bottom for the the 2009-2011 housing crash was near the peak for the housing boom in 1989.
.
1981
zzyzzx
2023 May 3, 7:14am
zzyzzx
2023 May 3, 7:14am
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/mortgage-demand-drops-as-bank-failures-hit-jumbo-loan-rates.html
Mortgage demand drops as bank failures hit jumbo loan rates
Mortgage demand drops as bank failures hit jumbo loan rates
1982
zzyzzx
2023 May 3, 8:01am
zzyzzx
2023 May 3, 8:01am
Bitcoiner says
History often "rhymes" instead of simply repeating. Higher interest rates are going to have an effect on housing prices at some point, as is the insane P/E ratios of housing (price of housing compared to average earnings in a given area). Everyone isn't going to pay California prices forever. Also, given the recalculation of credit scores causing credit score inflation you really can't compare those from back then to now. Credit tightening also suggests a smaller pool of potential new buyers. I'm looking to sell while the market is still bloated, but I expect the market to stay bloated for some time still.
Totally, this couldn’t be more different than 07/08. What happened in 05-07 was a once in a lifetime occurrence (ninja loans and stated income + arm loans). Owners back then should never have been allowed to buy and owners today are in the best shape ever. Inventory (active listings) was rising to 4M back then while inventory today is at all time lows. Too funny that some people still compare this to today.
History often "rhymes" instead of simply repeating. Higher interest rates are going to have an effect on housing prices at some point, as is the insane P/E ratios of housing (price of housing compared to average earnings in a given area). Everyone isn't going to pay California prices forever. Also, given the recalculation of credit scores causing credit score inflation you really can't compare those from back then to now. Credit tightening also suggests a smaller pool of potential new buyers. I'm looking to sell while the market is still bloated, but I expect the market to stay bloated for some time still.
1983
zzyzzx
2023 May 3, 8:08am
zzyzzx
2023 May 3, 8:08am
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/lawler-invitation-homes-net-seller-of.html
Invitation Homes Net Seller of Single-Family Properties for Second Straight Quarter
Invitation Homes Net Seller of Single-Family Properties for Second Straight Quarter
1984
zzyzzx
2023 May 3, 8:13am
zzyzzx
2023 May 3, 8:13am
https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-cost-less-than-year-ago-2023/
Roughly 1 in 4 Homes for Sale in Austin and Seattle Cost Less Than They Would Have a Year Ago
Roughly 1 in 4 Homes for Sale in Austin and Seattle Cost Less Than They Would Have a Year Ago
1985
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 3, 8:35am
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 3, 8:35am
ad says
Yes.
That's how inflation distorts trying to tell a story with a simple plot.
So the bottom for U.S. median home price in the upcoming housing crash will be near the peak at the last housing boom (~2009-2011) ?
Looks like the bottom for the the 2009-2011 housing crash was near the peak for the housing boom in 1989.
Yes.
That's how inflation distorts trying to tell a story with a simple plot.
1986
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 3, 9:05am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 3, 9:05am
Bitcoiner says
Great example of how central banking fools people. While you spend your time digging through the weeds justifying the greed and making money by doing nothing, your lifestyle tightens a little more, your quality of life continues dropping, until you are a slave in the country your fore-fathers fought for.
Totally, this couldn’t be more different than 07/08. What happened in 05-07 was a once in a lifetime occurrence (ninja loans and stated income + arm loans). Owners back then should never have been allowed to buy and owners today are in the best shape ever. Inventory (active listings) was rising to 4M back then while inventory today is at all time lows. Too funny that some people still compare this to today.
Great example of how central banking fools people. While you spend your time digging through the weeds justifying the greed and making money by doing nothing, your lifestyle tightens a little more, your quality of life continues dropping, until you are a slave in the country your fore-fathers fought for.
1987
WookieMan
2023 May 3, 11:00am
WookieMan
2023 May 3, 11:00am
Bitcoiner says
You're back... I actually agree with everything in your comment besides this. Most crypto is down 50-60% from peak. It's likely the cause of the recent bank failures it just trailed the trading for a couple months. And alas, urban areas popular with crypto are losing banks. They're also losing population. Cities are going to get fucked over the next decade.
I think housing is fine. It's going to stagnate but as you say there's nothing there to cause a crash. People that bought in the last 18 months and got laid off might be in a tough spot. That's 1-2% of the buying population best case. I don't think there's much upside for a while, but the floor on prices is pretty high if they drop at all. We'd need double digit interest rates for a true negative move.
Buying houses was the best investment besides crypto.
You're back... I actually agree with everything in your comment besides this. Most crypto is down 50-60% from peak. It's likely the cause of the recent bank failures it just trailed the trading for a couple months. And alas, urban areas popular with crypto are losing banks. They're also losing population. Cities are going to get fucked over the next decade.
I think housing is fine. It's going to stagnate but as you say there's nothing there to cause a crash. People that bought in the last 18 months and got laid off might be in a tough spot. That's 1-2% of the buying population best case. I don't think there's much upside for a while, but the floor on prices is pretty high if they drop at all. We'd need double digit interest rates for a true negative move.
1988
Blue
2023 May 3, 11:05am
WookieMan says
Double digit inflation can not pull the prices down for too long.
I don't think there's much upside for a while, but the floor on prices is pretty high if they drop at all. We'd need double digit interest rates for a true negative move.
Double digit inflation can not pull the prices down for too long.
1989
WookieMan
2023 May 3, 11:11am
WookieMan
2023 May 3, 11:11am
Blue says
Wages will not pace with inflation though. That's where there could be a problem. I don't like the current economy, but for some reason I'm not overly pessimistic. We'll see. I dislike making predictions. I for sure am not seeing a crash on the horizon. Current loans are generally solid unless you bought in the last year or so. Even then it's qualified and not 2005 style with no doc loans.
WookieMan says
I don't think there's much upside for a while, but the floor on prices is pretty high if they drop at all. We'd need double digit interest rates for a true negative move.
Double digit inflation can not pull the prices down for too long.
Wages will not pace with inflation though. That's where there could be a problem. I don't like the current economy, but for some reason I'm not overly pessimistic. We'll see. I dislike making predictions. I for sure am not seeing a crash on the horizon. Current loans are generally solid unless you bought in the last year or so. Even then it's qualified and not 2005 style with no doc loans.
1990
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 3, 12:08pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 May 3, 12:08pm
Bitcoiner says
Yup.
Like ®ealtors say, "It's Different This Time."
Too funny that some people still compare this to today.
Yup.
Like ®ealtors say, "It's Different This Time."
1991
WookieMan
2023 May 3, 5:55pm
WookieMan
2023 May 3, 5:55pm
Bitcoiner says
Keep it to housing. I can agree on some things there. Otherwise I'll try to ignore any crypto threads. You piss me off on those.
WookieMan says
You're back...
Yep, hi Wookie and Patnet :)
Keep it to housing. I can agree on some things there. Otherwise I'll try to ignore any crypto threads. You piss me off on those.
1992
GNL
2023 May 3, 8:10pm
GNL
2023 May 3, 8:10pm
If the entire MMT fiat economic system is based on credit and it needs and demands constant credit creation to function, how will this effect housing? With sales, inventory and housing construction down, credit cannot expand, correct? What happens? Especially seeing that rates will(?) climb.
« First « Previous Comments 1,953 - 1,992 of 5,634 Next » Last » Search these comments
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.