patrick.net

At new base rates of 33 cents/kWhr, my solar system (finally) broke even (over 35,000 kWHr of electricity produced). It's a tiny system (less than 2kW) and I've had it for maybe ten years (at a cost of $10k after rebates and credits). Yes, I realize, lots of hand waving on my end, but bear in mind it was shaving off Tier 2 and Tier 3 marginal rates (which are $.39 and $.49 per kWHr in the latest schedules). It'll be putting over $800 a year in my pocket... at least until the inverter breaks.
@eman, congrats on your new system. Let us know how it goes once the install is complete. You're paying less than half of what I did (and getting a PowerWall to boot).

Hircus says

solar in the Denver area

Rockies, not the midwest. Hircus says

I don't think you've done any math on this. The economics of wind turbines + battery storage just doesnt work well for many people.

Just like your map doesn't work out for many people either with solar. I live next to one of the largest wind farms on the planet. What do I know? They just build them for fun?

For renewables solar is by far the worst. It's not even a contest when you factor in wind, hydro and nukes. Solar is not the future.

EBGuy says

At new base rates of 33 cents/kWhr, my solar system (finally) broke even (over 35,000 kWHr of electricity produced). It's a tiny system (less than 2kW) and I've had it for maybe ten years (at a cost of $10k after rebates and credits). Yes, I realize, lots of hand waving on my end, but bear in mind it was shaving off Tier 2 and Tier 3 marginal rates (which are $.39 and $.49 per kWHr in the latest schedules). It'll be putting over $800 a year in my pocket... at least until the inverter breaks.
eman, congrats on your new system. Let us know how it goes once the install is complete. You're paying less than half of what I did (and getting a PowerWall to boot).

@EBGuy, $2.70/watt pre-tax credits. $2/watt after tax credits. The cost of PW is not included as it’s an “optional” item. I should have been more clear.

First PW costs $5.5k after discount and tax credits. Each additional PW costs $4.9k. Based on the calculations, 1 PW should last us 1.5 days. If it’s sunny, then it’s indefinitely. Been thinking under what scenario we would need more than 1 PW.

Looks like you’re an early solar adopter. I was an early Tesla adopter so I get free supercharging for life. It works out.

Eman says

Been thinking under what scenario we would need more than 1 PW.

when 1 goes out? things can break.

good for off grid where replacement waiting for downtime is painful.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

Eman says

Been thinking under what scenario we would need more than 1 PW.

when 1 goes out? things can break.

good for off grid where replacement waiting for downtime is painful.

Exactly, redundancies can be important when talking about the ability to continue operating if even only at a minimum.

Also, if they can be setup as alternating lead lag in the power programming, you can distribute discharges separately if you stay under the maximum kW peak of the one battery source.

Eman, hopefully you can get in under the wire and qualify for NEM 2.0, as NEM 3.0 reimbursement rates will be a lot lower.
California slashes incentives for new rooftop solar, promotes batteries to shift grid costs
Instead of being credited at the retail rate of electricity, customers will get paid at the “actual avoided cost.” That figure is lower than the retail rate during the daylight hours, when solar energy is abundant and cheap, but it’s higher during the evening hours — when solar production ramps down to practically zero when the sun goes down and California’s electric grid is under the most stress.

The California Solar & Storage Association has estimated the average compensation rate would drop from 30 cents per kilowatt to 8 cents, a reduction of 75 percent.

EBGuy says

Eman, hopefully you can get in under the wire and qualify for NEM 2.0, as NEM 3.0 reimbursement rates will be a lot lower.
California slashes incentives for new rooftop solar, promotes batteries to shift grid costs
Instead of being credited at the retail rate of electricity, customers will get paid at the “actual avoided cost.” That figure is lower than the retail rate during the daylight hours, when solar energy is abundant and cheap, but it’s higher during the evening hours — when solar production ramps down to practically zero when the sun goes down and California’s electric grid is under the most stress.

The California Solar & Storage Association has estimated the average compensation rate would drop from 30 cents per kilowatt to 8 cents, a reduction of 75 percent.

@EBGuy, per Tesla solar, I should qualify for NEM 2.0. Installation will likely happen by February. As long as they apply before 4/14, I should get grandfathered in NEM 2.0.

Thinking of biting the bullet and pay for a second PW and be done with it. Then I don’t have to worry about power outage and can run A/C full blast during the heatwave with 2 PW’s.

The government giveth and the government taketh away.

Today it's grandfathered and tomorrow it might change on a whim. The noises are already being made to claw back all the "unfair giveaways to the rich people".

RWSGFY says

The government giveth and the government taketh away.

Today it's grandfathered and tomorrow it might change on a whim. The noises are already being made to claw back all the "unfair giveaways to the rich people".

We all make our bets and live with the consequences. Nothing is guaranteed in this life other than death and taxes.

It’s interesting that not making bets is essentially making bets. This is the difference between people, who are willing to make bets and accepting failures, in the pursuit of their dreams compared to ones who are afraid to make bets, stay with their W2, while keep dreaming of all the could have, would have and should have….

This is why wealthy people don’t stop working while normal people drag themselves out of bed every morning, go to work at a job they don’t care for, or even hate, rather than pursuing their dreams. We all have choices, and America provides all the opportunities people in the entire world can only hope for.

I LOVE AMERICA!

Eman says

RWSGFY says

The government giveth and the government taketh away.

Today it's grandfathered and tomorrow it might change on a whim. The noises are already being made to claw back all the "unfair giveaways to the rich people".

We all make our bets and live with the consequences. Nothing is guaranteed in this life other than death and taxes.

It’s interesting that not making bets is essentially making bets. This is the difference between people, who are willing to make bets and accepting failures, in the pursuit of their dreams compared to ones who are afraid to make bets, stay with their W2, while keep dreaming of all the could have, would have and should have….

This is why wealthy people don’t stop working while normal people drag themselves out of bed every morning, go to work at a job they don’t care for, or even hate, rather than pursuing their dreams. We...

How did solar panels and govenment incentives around them suddenly devolve into a rant about W2s and such?

Did you assume something about somebody here? Don't: assumption is the mother of all fuckups.

RWSGFY says

Eman says

RWSGFY says

The government giveth and the government taketh away.

Today it's grandfathered and tomorrow it might change on a whim. The noises are already being made to claw back all the "unfair giveaways to the rich people".

We all make our bets and live with the consequences. Nothing is guaranteed in this life other than death and taxes.

It’s interesting that not making bets is essentially making bets. This is the difference between people, who are willing to make bets and accepting failures, in the pursuit of their dreams compared to ones who are afraid to make bets, stay with their W2, while keep dreaming of all the could have, would have and should have….

This is why wealthy people don’t stop working while normal people drag themselves out of bed every morning, go ...

The government giveth 30% tax credit. This is fact. Who assumed the government would take away the NEM 2.0, which would get grandfathered in? Thanks for proving my point and your own point.

As I said above, we all make our bets and live with the consequences. Not making bet is essentially making bet. I thought that was an interesting perspective when it was shared with me, and it seems true based on what I’ve seen.

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/06/27/baseball-sized-hail-smashing-into-panels-at-150-mph-destroys-scottsbluff-solar-farm/

Baseball-Sized Hail Smashing Into Panels At 150 MPH Destroys Scottsbluff Solar Farm

Have solar on the place we're moving to in Yuma. $100/month over the summer, compared to as much as $400 when I lived in Glendale. Yes, will work out nicely for me.

NuttBoxer says

Have solar on the place we're moving to in Yuma. $100/month over the summer, compared to as much as $400 when I lived in Glendale. Yes, will work out nicely for me.

This is a nice added bonus. Congrats! 🚀🚀

Booger says

If your neighbor's house is shading your solar panels, will they be required to chop them down

The Solar Shade Control Act prohibits homeowners/neighbors from planting a tree or shrub that would shade more than 10% of a neighboring solar collector between the hours of 10 a.m. and 2 p.m.

However, this doesn’t mean you can install solar panels and then demand your neighbors cut their trees down. This act only applies to newly planted trees that replace a dead tree or one that has been removed for safety reasons. It does not apply to existing trees.

So what exactly does this mean? The act requires that neighbors trim back trees after your solar panels are installed. They can still plant trees; they just can’t let them grow so big that they shade your system.

Although this act exists, California also has another policy that requires new solar homes to have a time-of-use (TOU) plan.

What is a TOU plan?

TOU plan states that solar energy production in the early evening is more valuable than other times throughout the day. On the other hand, the Solar Shade Control Act focuses its hours during midday peak, which doesn’t protect homeowners from the shade that falls during the evening peak between 4 to 8 p.m.

In this case, it’s best to negotiate a solar easement with your neighbor.

https://sunlightsolarinc.com/resources/can-i-do-about-my-neighbors-trees-blocking-my-solar-panels/

Looks like Cali fucked that all up like the HST to Griftville.

Eman says

It’s interesting that not making bets is essentially making bets.

Making bets in stock market >> making bets in solar panels on one's roof.

Eric Holder says

Eman says

It’s interesting that not making bets is essentially making bets.

Making bets in stock market >> making bets in solar panels on one's roof.

I view installing solar is like buying an asset be it a house, or an investment. You fix the cost while the cost of electricity keeps going up over time. Then in a decade or less once the cost of solar is paid off, you’d get free electricity for the next couple of decades.

Trollhole says

In this case, it’s best to negotiate a solar easement with your neighbor.

I have ground and air rights. I can plant anything, any time I want, regardless of what the neighbor thinks. If it hangs over your property line you can cut branches on YOUR property. That's it. Not sure if this is a CA thing or what. It's not legal to demand someone cut down a tree in IL because of solar.

WookieMan says

Trollhole says

In this case, it’s best to negotiate a solar easement with your neighbor.

I have ground and air rights. I can plant anything, any time I want, regardless of what the neighbor thinks. If it hangs over your property line you can cut branches on YOUR property. That's it. Not sure if this is a CA thing or what. It's not legal to demand someone cut down a tree in IL because of solar.

This is correct. You can cut branches that hang over your property.

zzyzzx says

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/06/27/baseball-sized-hail-smashing-into-panels-at-150-mph-destroys-scottsbluff-solar-farm/

Baseball-Sized Hail Smashing Into Panels At 150 MPH Destroys Scottsbluff Solar Farm

Eman says

I view installing solar is like buying an asset be it a house, or an investment. You fix the cost while the cost of electricity keeps going up over time. Then in a decade or less once the cost of solar is paid off, you’d get free electricity for the next couple of decades.

Only if they continue to waive transmission cost (i.e. "net metering") and don't charge you for trapping heat on the planet for having something that dark covering much lighter colored (hence more reflective) grass and soil. For every unit of electricity a solar panel generates, it's trapping 5+ units of heat on the planet.

Solar panels are good for household energy independence if you also use batteries (including mechanical batteries such as pumping water to higher reservoir during day time then letting it down to power electric turbine at night), but negative value for electric grid/network capacity and reducing global warming.

Tenpoundbass says

zzyzzx says

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/06/27/baseball-sized-hail-smashing-into-panels-at-150-mph-destroys-scottsbluff-solar-farm/

Baseball-Sized Hail Smashing Into Panels At 150 MPH Destroys Scottsbluff Solar Farm

Insured, but a complete waste of resources for something that is likely to happen again and again and again. The fossil fuels used just to make those and get them there has not paid for itself. Don't know the age of the field, just given the number of panels, shipping, manufacturing, employees installing and manufacturing employing getting to work, etc.

Solar is only viable in arid climates with little to no rain. And where do all those damaged panels go? As they produce a ton of CO2 on making the new ones? And this is why I don't/won't get solar. Plus it's uglier that shit, just not brown.

WookieMan says

Insured, but a complete waste of resources

Inured? that sounds more like a problem than a but.
Insured for what reason? And how much is their premium compared to the payout?
It's policies like these the every premium payer of every insurance, sees an increase in their premiums, after these episodes.
I bet they are enjoying premiums that are tiny fraction of their profits.

Eman says

Eric Holder says

Eman says

It’s interesting that not making bets is essentially making bets.

Making bets in stock market >> making bets in solar panels on one's roof.

I view installing solar is like buying an asset be it a house, or an investment. You fix the cost while the cost of electricity keeps going up over time. Then in a decade or less once the cost of solar is paid off, you’d get free electricity for the next couple of decades.

It's all feelz. I prefer numbers.

RWSGFY says

It's all feelz. I prefer numbers.

$.333 /kWhr x 365days x 8.36kWhr/day = $1,016 (tax free, BTW)
I should note that $.333/kWhr is a baseline rate. Anything over baseline is $.417/kWhr.
March and October bills include a $38.39 climate credit that all Californians receive. I usually owe PG&E somewhere between $100 to $200 at true up.
EDIT: changed 356 to 365 days. No rest for my panels (hat tip Eman)

EBGuy says

RWSGFY says

It's all feelz. I prefer numbers.

$.333 /kWhr x 356days x 8.36kWhr/day = $1,016 (tax free, BTW)
I should note that $.333/kWhr is a baseline rate. Anything over baseline is $.417/kWhr.
March and October bills include a $38.39 climate credit that all Californians receive. I usually owe PG&E somewhere between $100 to $200 at true up.

356 days, not 365 days? Typo @EBGuy?

RWSGFY says

Eman says

Eric Holder says

Eman says

It’s interesting that not making bets is essentially making bets.

Making bets in stock market >> making bets in solar panels on one's roof.

I view installing solar is like buying an asset be it a house, or an investment. You fix the cost while the cost of electricity keeps going up over time. Then in a decade or less once the cost of solar is paid off, you’d get free electricity for the next couple of decades.

It's all feelz. I prefer numbers.

LOL! I’m sure most people here would agree I’m more of a numbers guy than all feelz…. 🤣

Right, but you chose to put feels and solar industry sales pitch canned phrases into your post instead of ##s.

"Investment in the house", "free electricity", "rates will go STRATOSPHERIC" - this the stuff I hear every time a boy with an electric scooter, iPad and some solar company badge shows up canvassing the neighborhood.

RWSGFY says

Right, but you chose to put feels and solar industry sales pitch canned phrases into your post instead of ##s.

"Investment in the house", "free electricity", "rates will go STRATOSPHERIC" - this the stuff I hear every time a boy with an electric scooter, iPad and some solar company badge shows up canvassing the neighborhood.

Exactly, all of that stuff is just fear porn or bullshit. You’re just avoiding utility costs and replacing them with self generation costs. You’re going to pay something for power, and it’s never going to be free! Inverters are going to last 10-15 years if you’re lucky. Current generation panels will probably get to the 25 year mark and then start significantly degrading.

So much sensationalism. Thanks for the laugh guys. 🤣

I ran the math and shared above. Hirus also chimed in and shared his perspectives. No feels, no fear porn, or BS. Just numbers.

Since I own a Tesla in 2017 till now, electricity cost has doubled. Will it double again in the next 6 years, quadruple in 12 years? 🤷‍♂️ So it is an investment as I’ve fixed my electricity cost for the next 2.5 decades, just like having a fixed mortgage, vs. renting, where rent goes up over time.

Inverters are also guaranteed for 25 years. If I get my money back in 8-9 years, wouldn’t the electricity for the remaining years be free? Just like a paid off house and no more mortgage payments while rent is still due every month for renters?

Maybe you guys see something I don’t.

Was just looking at prices for complete home systems with batteries. It's starting to look like giving the big middle finger to electric company is cost effective. If one's house is totally off the grid, will the electric company try to charge you just for heck of it? Also, how much red tape is involved in electrical permits? It's amazing to me that the electric company and California are so badly run that ditching all the economies of scale that a compact neighborhood offers is still better to go it alone.

If one scavenges a run down battery to use for home storage, are those batteries still efficient even if the capacity isn't so great? Supposed new EV battery is 95% efficient (usable power out is 95% of the power fed in), is a run-down EV battery that only gives 1/2 the driving range still that efficient? If the efficiency is also reduced, then you'll need to expend more money for more solar panel, defeating the cost benefits.

SunnyvaleCA says

If one scavenges a run down battery to use for home storage, are those batteries still efficient even if the capacity isn't so great? Supposed new EV battery is 95% efficient (usable power out is 95% of the power fed in), is a run-down EV battery that only gives 1/2 the driving range still that efficient? If the efficiency is also reduced, then you'll need to expend more money for more solar panel, defeating the cost benefits.

Great question. Research shows that Tesla battery degrades at around 1% per year and it flattens out after 10-20% so the capacity should still be around 80-90%.

Solar panels are guaranteed to have 92% capacity after 25 years. That’s 8% degradation. They have a system installed to monitor the solar panel efficiency. If any panel degrades more than that, they’ll replace it for free as part of the 25-year warranty.

From the battery size perspective, the Cybertruck is a great deal. Backing out the numbers, the Cybertruck will likely have a 175 kWh battery pack for 500-mile range. This is equivalent to 13 powerwalls while each powerwall sells for $14k.

On my recently flight to HI, I sat next to a retired gentleman, who has built his own solar system, and is planning on getting a Tesla car battery pack at the junkyard for storage. I’ve heard others have done it. Great deal compared to the cost of the powerwall.

SunnyvaleCA says

Was just looking at prices for complete home systems with batteries. It's starting to look like giving the big middle finger to electric company is cost effective. If one's house is totally off the grid, will the electric company try to charge you just for heck of it? Also, how much red tape is involved in electrical permits? It's amazing to me that the electric company and California are so badly run that ditching all the economies of scale that a compact neighborhood offers is still better to go it alone.

If I have to guess, as more people go solar, PG&E will likely charge higher fees for using their grid to store/transfer excess electricity generating from solar. NEM 3.0 reduced 75% of the electricity credit PG&E gives to solar owners.

With respect to electrical permit, it seems easy. The solar company handles it, and they get the permit within a couple months.

Eman says

Maybe you guys see something I don’t.

Maybe it has changed, but the average person lives in the same home 7 years. Let's say it's 9 years now. So you've put panels up, barely paid them off. You move. I think it's a negative when selling too. They're ugly. You have to have a flat roof home to mostly hide them and I ain't dealing with that. If you have a large roof, then electric should be of no concern as you likely have $$$.

As far as having a Tesla, especially in CA. They WILL tax you based on your registration at some point in the future. It's not about energy, it's about the roads and maintaining infrastructure. It's not a matter of if, it's when. You're registration could go up to $1k/yr or hell higher. EV's not paying into the system will be taxed at some point and that point is coming sooner than later. Or you'll be blowing out tires and suspensions on crap roads.

Either way, solar and EV's are a trap. How many power plants have they shut down even with all this solar production and car charging? Likely none. They, utilities or government will come for you non-electric usage with solar or usage with EV's. If say 30% of people get into EV's, that's a massive drop in MFT (motor fuel tax) funds. A day of reckoning is coming for the greenies. Roads didn't get built by EV's and they won't last with EV's on them.

Wookie,

I’ve been in the same house for 20 years. My sister has been in the same house for 19. Brothers have been in their house for 13 and 14 years. We’re not the “move and 7 years” typical Americans. I did move after 7 years on the first house though.

It’s $60k. We’ll make it back in 2 months if we change our mind. It’s not a big deal.

We drive EV b/c they’re fun to drive. Trap or not, it doesn’t matter. If we have to get rid of te cars and switch back to ICE vehicles, we’ll do it. It doesn’t matter.

If we have to pay higher registrations, it is what it is. It doesn’t matter. Have to pay to keep up the roads one way or another. We’re only on this earth for a brief period of time. Enjoy life and have fun.

Eman says

Great question. Research shows that Tesla battery degrades at around 1% per year and it flattens out after 10-20% so the capacity should still be around 80-90%.

Solar panels are guaranteed to have 92% capacity after 25 years. That’s 8% degradation. They have a system installed to monitor the solar panel efficiency. If any panel degrades more than that, they’ll replace it for free as part of the 25-year warranty.

From the battery size perspective, the Cybertruck is a great deal. Backing out the numbers, the Cybertruck will likely have a 175 kWh battery pack for 500-mile range. This is equivalent to 13 powerwalls while each powerwall sells for $14k.

I'm not worried about capacity. In my hypothetical cost-saving thought experiment I'm assuming I can get ahold of 4 or more junkyard version-1 Nissan Leafs ("Leaves"?) whose batteries have gone from 85 mile range to 40 mile range because they were daily commuters for 10 years. So, with these degraded batteries, if I managed to feed 10 kWh into them by 4 PM one sunny afternoon will I be able to get 8 kWh out of them by 8 AM the next morning? Clearly, the batters can take in that much energy and still not register as "full," but I'm concerned that only 1/2 the amount of energy that gets fed in actually is able to be used as usable output by my home. I could double my solar panel count, feed 20 kWh into them and be assured I can get out 10 kWh, but now I have no savings simply because I have had to spend 2x on the solar panels.

The same efficiency problem would plague EV owners, too, I suppose. We're told driving an EV is half the energy cost per mile than driving an efficient ICE car, but is that true after both have gone 150k miles? That ICE car is still probably giving 80% the MPG figure (and thus 80% range), but does an EV operating at 70% range also operate at 70% MPG-Equivalent?

Watch out Tesla charging went up to about $0.40/KWH in case if anyone is price cautious.