patrick.net

,

This will apply if the pensions cannot be paid due to Yellow's bankruptcy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pension_Benefit_Guaranty_Corporation

,

Airlines are nothing but big debt bombs. The increase in interest rates is gonna kill them. They carry little in the way of cash on hand and believe that increasing efficiency is the way to prosperity.

I'm already seeing ads for cheap fares. Guess management can bail with golden parachutes, but the pilots are gonna be fucked.

Yep, the PBGC covers up to a certain max payout, but it'll need a bailout of its own 'cause it's broke.

State and City pensions ain't covered by the PBGC and in a lot of cases the employees decided agains Social Security, --- They are gonna be fucked when it is discovered what the Pension managers invested their coin into.

Pilots have already in the past taken pension haircuts due to bankruptcies. A pilot I knew locally said some were down to as low as 40 percent of what they expected. You are an unsecured creditor as a pension beneficiary. You have to take what they give you when the dust settles, if any thing at all after the secured creditors are taken care of.

There is no lump sum of money accrued in any kind of trust held by somebody other than yourself, that wily crooks don't immediately start scheming on to exploit or steal. Those wily crooks are often called CEO's or your political representatives. The lawyers make a bundle, too, as do all the 'investment advisors' administering the dough.

Misc says

State and City pensions ain't covered by the PBGC

I wonder why Moody's withdrew in 2018 its ratings of CALPERS. In 2017, Fitch rated CALPERS at AAA.

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-withdraws-ratings-of-California-Public-Employees-Retirement-System--PR_381108

.

Misc says

State and City pensions ain't covered by the PBGC and in a lot of cases the employees decided agains Social Security, --- They are gonna be fucked when it is discovered what the Pension managers invested their coin into.

Those might get bailed out

Your typical State/Muni pension fund is about 25% into private equity (that'll go to zero), 25% into junk or near junk bonds (a lot of that is the debt for the private equity) figure they will get 30 cents on the dollar for that, 25% stock indexes (how far they can tank is really up to how bad of a downturn we get and if they have to sell at the lows), and 25% in other investments (generally illiquid positions like real estate).

The amount in these pension funds is about $4 trillion.

The only way to bail them out is to nationalize a huge chunk of our economy. Which we may have to do.

I'm loving the Hollywood Writers Strike.

Love watching two assholes beat the shit out of each other. Long may the studios and their wokeass employees maul each other.

How do they get bailed out ?

If the Federal Government bails out pension funds for cities and states, then they will have to tighten the belt as far as Social Security outlays.

That is they have to enact a means test for Social Security.

.

AmericanKulak says

I'm loving the Hollywood Writers Strike.

Love watching two assholes beat the shit out of each other. Long may the studios and their wokeass employees maul each other.

Ron effing Perlman



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcdvuV81F_M

This could be a wild battle to the death if the writers and actors hold out long enough. Once the studios lose the pipeline for their streaming services and people drop off because there is no new content, the whole industry could melt down.

ad says

That is they have to enact a means test for Social Security.

They do that, and it will be SS' death knell.

SS is a universal program. Rich ppl get it as well as poor. But if means testing arrives...and well off peeps still get nailed with the payroll tax but not the benefits. SS won't live for very long.

SS and Medicare's solvency problems can be easily fixed by removing their demographic-based funding mechanism and replacing it with a broad-based consumption one. Like a VAT.

EBGuy says

This could be a wild battle to the death if the writers and actors hold out long enough. Once the studios lose the pipeline for their streaming services and people drop off because there is no new content, the whole industry could melt down

You know why they are on strike, right?

They scanned the actors for future use with AI to generate them much like they do with dead actors already. But the actors are not getting any residuals for any of that.

So, if all that you mention can be minimized if the studios truly are ready to do this. My guess is that most are not. At least not cost-effectively yet.

Guess we are about to find out.

https://nerdbot.com/2023/07/14/snowpiercer-cast-unknowingly-scanned-for-ai-use-star-confirms/

Trollhole says

They scanned the actors for future use with AI to generate them much like they do with dead actors already. But the actors are not getting any residuals for any of that

Trollhole says

Misc says

State and City pensions ain't covered by the PBGC and in a lot of cases the employees decided agains Social Security, --- They are gonna be fucked when it is discovered what the Pension managers invested their coin into.

Those might get bailed out

I offer Detroit as an example...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_bankruptcy

Early in negotiations, the city's retirees saw themselves threatened with cuts of 50%. However, the grand bargain reduced those cuts to 4.5%, with no cost living increases.

ad says

How do they get bailed out ?

If the Federal Government bails out pension funds for cities and states, then they will have to tighten the belt as far as Social Security outlays.

That is they have to enact a means test for Social Security.

.

Print baby print. The last 3 years how much $$ did they print? They won't do it again?

zzyzzx says

I offer Detroit as an example...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_bankruptcy

Early in negotiations, the city's retirees saw themselves threatened with cuts of 50%. However, the grand bargain reduced those cuts to 4.5%, with no cost living increases.

GNL says

Print baby print. The last 3 years how much $$ did they print? They won't do it again?

Yeah, that's more likely.

Trollhole says

GNL says

Print baby print. The last 3 years how much $$ did they print? They won't do it again?

Yeah, that's more likely.

That's all they know how to do. That and bomb people and make more laws/regulations.

zzyzzx says

However, the grand bargain reduced those cuts to 4.5%, with no cost living increases.

Assuming that means no cost of living increases ever since 2013 that has more meaning.

Trollhole says

They scanned the actors for future use with AI to generate them much like they do with dead actors already. But the actors are not getting any residuals for any of that.

Good cause the same one cheered on the 1990s when Bill Clinton promoted free trade with China and Mexico; and the same ones said that it will be better fr America as those who lose their jobs will be able to reinvent themselves and learn new skills needed in the workforce.

Automation did away with a lot of jobs, as look at how the US Postal Service has slimmed down in employee size, just like it reduced the number of manufacturing assembly jobs.

So I hope lawyers are next as far as feeling the effects of automation and AI.

,

zzyzzx says

I offer Detroit as an example...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_bankruptcy

Early in negotiations, the city's retirees saw themselves threatened with cuts of 50%. However, the grand bargain reduced those cuts to 4.5%, with no cost living increases.

20 years of paying a Detroit retiree a pension without no cost of living increases means a real cut of 81%, assuming 3% annual inflation.

(1.03)^20 -1 = 1.81 - 1 = 0.81 = 81%

That is one way to manage a debt crisis as far as entitlement spending.

.

Misc says

The amount in these pension funds is about $4 trillion.

The only way to bail them out is to nationalize a huge chunk of our economy. Which we may have to do.

OR:
Pull a Venezuela and have the government take control of all IRA, 401k, and similar retirement funds nationwide. For people's safety. of course. That way your savings can subsidize the wildly overpromised pension benefits made by airlines.

ad says

That is they have to enact a means test for Social Security.

While making SS payouts available to illegals.

They already "means test" Medicare.
They deduct your "premium" from your Social Security payment monthly for life
My premium is $329/month.
Other guys pay about $150.
Your SS income can be taxed indirectly too; your capital gains tax rate varies by your income.
They need to stop 1. cost of living increases 2. paying to spouse of deceased who may have not worked in her life 3. disability to fraud cases (I know a guy who said "Lyme Disease" incapacitated him, yet he has Facebook pics of him lifting heavy weight at the gym.
etc.
PPP loans were bullshit too, what a waste.

Trollhole says

SS is a universal program. Rich ppl get it as well as poor. But if means testing arrives...and well off peeps still get nailed with the payroll tax but not the benefits. SS won't live for very long.

Why?

Trollhole says

They scanned the actors for future use with AI to generate them much like they do with dead actors already. But the actors are not getting any residuals for any of that.

Don't actors (or anyone, really) hold the rights to their likeness? I mean, they can't use your photo for promotional literature w/o your consent, how's deepfake is any different in this regard?

Eric Holder says

Don't actors (or anyone, really) hold the rights to their likeness? I mean, they can't use your photo for promotional literature w/o your consent, how's deepfake is any different in this regard?

Sure. Just like a hooker gives consent.

John: 'I have AIDS and I want to cum in your ass w/o a condom. Pay is $500.'

Hooker with four kids to feed and already behind rent: "No way!"

John: "Ok, hasta la vista'

Hooker: 'No...wait.'

Hollywood actor: "No way will I let you scan me for $500."

Hollywood Producer: "Ok, bye. Oh...and this is a lot like the casting couch. You walk, and you get added to the black ball list. Good luck finding work in this town again."

This mostly impacts lower end actors, like those who do background work. But it seems that the entire cast of Snowpiercer got scanned and were told some BS as to why.

If they knowingly sold their likeness then I'd say they're SOL.

Yep, the teamsters threatened to strike and guess what...the company folded up shop.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fall-of-a-trucking-giant-why-yellow-is-on-the-verge-of-collapse-3724f662

Misc says

Yep, the teamsters threatened to strike and guess what...the company folded up shop.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fall-of-a-trucking-giant-why-yellow-is-on-the-verge-of-collapse-3724f662

I heard about this from the inside. Apparently Yellow merged with their parent company, and stopped their product that guaranteed 1-2 day delieveries anywhere on the West Coast, and a shitload of long term reliable clients dumped their ass and found substitutes, taking their other contracts with them and causing a revenue collapse.

The Customers were willing to pay extra, but corporate didn't want to offer the product that they had offered for decades.

Sounds like the old "tunnel vision Bean Counters decided they'd potentially shave a few dollars by not offering the product, and spoiled what was special and niche about the company's products and services, so the clients went to competitors and ruined the company" story.

Hollywood seems to be about draining what looks increasingly like a dead horse. Many stars are fleeing. Hollywood is too hidebound, dynastic, wildly expensive to operate in, corrupt and woke, with its entrenched layers of lawyers, agents, unions, production companies etc. Covid didn't help, and you see name actors in roles they never would have stooped to years ago. Union shops eventually kill their golden goose.

They can strike all they want, but a lot of the film industry has already gone elsewhere. The Swiss Octagon and Chatham House may be telling them to increase the woke shit on some vision of the future catering to pliable decerebrate pidgins populating the ranks of their New World Order medival peasant fantasy farm, but woke shit is killing them. They're falling on their swords for drool bucket European Royal's idiotic fantasies of control.

A lot foreign shows have become superior to the offerings of Hollywood. Hollywood seems to think that dressing people up in costumes and making them act like fags and fagettes in stupid situation comedies or game shows is the wave of the future. They have become the embodiment of the ritualized contempt of the population.