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Banking Problems are Just Starting


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2023 Mar 22, 12:52am   19,190 views  161 comments

by Misc   ➕follow (3)   💰tip   ignore  

What we've seen so far in problems with the banks is those that purchased long term bonds that went down in value as interest rates went up.

Some mainstream economist crunched the figures and came up with a $620 billion dollar hit to the banks balance sheets if these were marked to market. That is if they needed to be sold.

We haven't even gotten to the fun part yet. That's when borrowers start to not pay back their loans because they ran out of money they could borrow on their credit lines. Credit spreads are widening especially for junk bonds. They are now over a 5% spread to treasuries. That means companies are borrowing at about a rate of 8-9%. Companies trying to roll-over their outstanding debt are gonna find that they just can't pencil in anything except for losses at these new rates. Credit is simply going to dry up for a large swath of corporations.

Good luck to all with your investments.

https://www.axios.com/2023/03/21/high-yield-bond-spreads-show-increasing-recession-jitters

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117   GNL   2023 Aug 31, 9:04pm  

We took photos of a home years ago that had a very Asian influence. The center of the home opened above and the walls slid open as well. A large garden space was the focus. You could actually bring the outside in. Not my cup of tea. It was actually a rental for many years. I assume because it was too unique? I forget how the roof worked.
118   GNL   2023 Aug 31, 9:08pm  

WookieMan says

We just spent $35k over the weekend in San Diego.

Yet you're still wishing on a star to afford that 2,200 square foot home. Try clicking your heels 3 times, that might work.
119   Patrick   2023 Aug 31, 9:10pm  

GNL says

Patrick, I edited at 102. Is that better? I feel handcuffed. Wookieman is hurting my feelings. :)


@GNL it's still pretty personal, but OK.
120   GNL   2023 Aug 31, 9:14pm  

richwicks says


Don't make the mistake of integrating "new technology" in your home. Can't even buy parts to replace it.

Yes. I have witnessed this also. Not sure if true but (I assumed it wasn't high tech) a homeowner had a huge chandelier that you could flick a switch and it would come down to the floor (from 3 stories up) so you could change the light bulbs. He was having a hell of a time getting someone to even come out and look at fixing it.
121   GNL   2023 Aug 31, 9:16pm  

Patrick says

GNL says


Patrick, I edited at 102. Is that better? I feel handcuffed. Wookieman is hurting my feelings. :)


GNL it's still pretty personal, but OK.

I'll do better in the future. I got a bit carried away. Thanks.
122   richwicks   2023 Aug 31, 9:17pm  

GNL says

We took photos of a home years ago that had a very Asian influence. The center of the home opened above and the walls slid open as well. A large garden space was the focus. You could actually bring the outside in. Not my cup of tea. It was actually a rental for many years. I assume because it was too unique? I forget how the roof worked.


Architecture used to be an interest of mine, but that was extinguished when I went to the University @ Buffalo. That's a top architecture school. I knew a guy that literally lived in his office, because when he was awake, he worked, and to even qualify for architecture there, you had to have a 4.0 GPA, and that didn't guarantee anything.

Electrical engineering is a lot easier. I don't think I'm creative enough to be an architect, and it's such a small field. My sister and parents had the same identical house, because my sister simply copied the plans of my parent's SECOND home. They were nice homes, but so weird to drive 300 miles away to end up in a duplicate. This is done all the time.

I have a complaint with building codes. There's people mixing concrete with styrofoam. This is a fragile building material, that is well insulated, and easily made stronger with resin sheets on it. It's mostly illegal in most areas, but it can drastically reduce home costs. My father sold building materials, and I'm aghast at how shitty buildings are made today. They are tinder boxes.

Our technology has progressed so much, but our government puts the brakes on everything, keeping us into the dark ages. 2x4s are obsolete in my opinion. You can just pour out a home now.
123   GNL   2023 Aug 31, 9:25pm  

Government...don't get me started. As for intelligence, creativity, common sense etc, I wish I had the perfect mix of each. EE easy? I was a computer programmer for a few years. One day I woke up and said I ain't doing this for the next 30 years. One of my better decisions. I love being around people.
124   richwicks   2023 Aug 31, 9:39pm  

GNL says


Government...don't get me started. As for intelligence, creativity, common sense etc, I wish I had the perfect mix of each. EE easy? I was a computer programmer for a few years. One day I woke up and said I ain't doing this for the next 30 years. One of my better decisions. I love being around people.


I'm basically a coder now.

I'm working to connect the world. I still stubbornly believe that if you all just TALK to one another, you will end conflict.

If I have a religion, it's that.

Just talk.

We are on the most powerful communication network the world has ever seen, the envy of every civilization before us. I can TRIVIALLY store more books than you can read in your entire lifetime on a $10 USB stick. It won't function after 10 years though, NAND memory degrades.

We're in a weird area.

People don't appreciate where we are. This is a remarkable time. We're going to strip the control of history from the people who controlled it before. You have the computing power to make a nuclear simulation, so does everybody everywhere. We have given power to everybody.

In 2000 years, the people living in 4000 AD will be able to see us, how we lived, what life was like, This is like seeing Ancient Rome today.

IF we can preserve the information. That's the last step. You find me a device that can store information for 2,000 years, I'll make you rich and I'm not kidding. I've looked into "5D optical storage". If we can preserve information, it's a huge game changer. It will change our species. It will fundamentally modify us, because any asshole will be able to record history, it won't be top down anymore. We will be able to see if it's getting better or worse. You have no idea how much a terrabyte is. That's an enormous amount of information, and it costs nothing really.

You coded, do the calculation. That's a trillion characters. Let's say you can read 100 characters a second - an astounding speed, how long before you go through it all? 1,000,000,000,000 / 100 = 10000000 seconds /365 x 24 x 60 x 60 - that's 317 years.

This really is a new time.

People honestly have no appreciation for the power they have, the access to information they have. This is currently a pinnacle, and I wonder if we'll go higher. It's nuts. I can seriously do nuclear bomb simulation on my PHONE now. I can do this, that's nuts.

I know people cannot utilize this technology mostly, but some can. I can't entirely use this technology and I'm trained to do it, but somebody can.

They will not be able to withhold information anymore. Most people will make no use of it, but I know there are people that will.
125   AD   2023 Aug 31, 10:03pm  

richwicks says

People honestly have no appreciation for the power they have, the access to information they have.


The critical factor is being able to understand and learn (via listening, watching, or reading) the information.

Plus even if the masses have the aptitude, they need the attention span and motivation to learn and apply the information.

We can put all the tools out there, but that does not mean they can be effectively used.

.
126   richwicks   2023 Aug 31, 10:11pm  

ad says

The critical factor is being able to understand and learn (via listening, watching, or reading) the information.

Plus even if the masses have the aptitude, they need the attention span and motivation to learn and apply the information.

We can put all the tools out there, but that does not mean they can be effectively used.


Look, I'm a moron genius, and I mean literally I am.

I know there are smarter people than me, I know there will be people who will make use of the information. We are making a meritocracy, like it or not.

We're all tired of rules by idiots and aristocracy. There will be people that make proper use of the tools. Pandora's box has been opened. If we had competent moral leaders, we wouldn't have done this.

We've TRIED to play nice, we have apparently MORONS in charge - at least they pretend to be morons, we'll expose them as liars or we'll displace them with competent people. Either way, we're going to get rid of them.

Not everybody can absorb the knowledge, but some can. I don't think I'm smart enough but others are. I'm just making the tools to help them.
127   GNL   2023 Aug 31, 10:55pm  

Want to torture yourself? Why can't every generation simply learn from and follow the advice of the generation ahead of them?
128   WookieMan   2023 Sep 1, 12:44am  

Patrick says


GNL says


Patrick, I edited at 102. Is that better? I feel handcuffed. Wookieman is hurting my feelings. :)


GNL it's still pretty personal, but OK.


Patrick, it's fine. At the end of the day I know what I'm talking about. If people cannot read that's on them. I've never stated I was building a mansion. I stated the square footage that would be taxed by the government and if I were to list it after building what would be the OFFICIAL MLS square footage for appraisal purposes. 90% of brokers don't understand the rules and 100% of real estate photographers know nothing about the MLS or what is required AND know nothing about real estate. They get hired by moron agents that can't figure out a camera and how to use a website, so there's that. Basically it's a very low bar to clear that a high school drop out can do. So I don't feel bad for being smarter.

I've also stated that I'm in no rush. It's not about money. It's not about size of the home. I'm not sure how this got derailed by GNL besides pure jealously. No other way to explain it. I have an ego, but I know what I know and what I'm worth. I'm fine with people not accepting their weaknesses. I witness it daily. It's fine. If one wants to criticize others on something they know nothing about that's on them. Talking to "3 agents" is proof said no honest person ever. I had to laugh at that. I ain't losing sleep over it. But I'll call out bull shit when I see it.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says


seriously wtf with this snobbish shit of house size. none of that matters before god.

Exactly. I gave the real, official square footage. 2,200 is nothing. GNL doesn't understand above grade and below grade. Maybe they don't have basements where he lives. I wasn't bragging. I was being honest with the size of home I'm building. Take condos out of the mix and 90% of people live in a 1,600-2,200 square foot homes ABOVE GRADE. I ain't pushing anything I've been accused of.

I have no incentive to lie. Being attacked over and over though by a liar that literally knows nothing about real estate I fight back. I can take a picture of a dog and claim to know about it, but that doesn't mean I'm a breeder or know how to breed dogs. That's what we got here. We've got a real estate expert that walks through homes he knows nothing about.

For fucks sake the guy photographs homes for a living and doesn't know Eichler from Rich's comment??? Jesus Christ that disqualifies you out of the gate. I have a $2k accent Eichler sided wall around my fireplace. In IL of all places. I bought and installed it.

Also, the 80's want the term poser back. Use it correctly or don't use it at all. Enjoy your night or day or whatever. Your criticism of me has no basis in reality and you're showing a bad look. Doesn't move me, just giving a heads up.
129   Onvacation   2023 Sep 1, 5:51am  

WookieMan says

You either play the game or complain about the game

Don't you believe America is worth saving?
130   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 8:22am  

You literally insulted everyone in 2 entire industries. There's the Wookster for ya. His greatness is really something to behold.
131   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 8:54am  

WookieMan says


about the MLS or

So tiring. There is NO "the MLS". Professionals stay in their lane instead of trying to be a jack of all trades. Real estate photography, while it doesn't take a genius, is a business. Running a business, any business, is the key. But you wouldn't know that since you aren't smart enough, not gonna lie, to run your own business.

And btw, brokers are like teachers...Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.

Those who can, SELL RE. Those who can't, become brokers.
132   HeadSet   2023 Sep 1, 8:04pm  

GNL says

I just confirmed with 3 of my agents that total square footage is adjustable on our MLS.

I noticed that Zillow listings in Virginia do include total finished sqft, to include below grade finished area.
133   HeadSet   2023 Sep 1, 8:26pm  

GNL says

Both of my mother inlaws

You have 2 mothers-in-law? That circumstance is a comedian's dream. And speaking of big homes falling apart, a friend of mine made a living repairing rot damage to 2-year-old homes in an upscale neighborhood. This neighborhood had lots of equity locusts from NY and CT, as indicated by the signs the builder put up in front of each home as it was being built. Apparently, these homes were built faster than the county inspector could look at them since many of the homes my friend repaired were missing code items like flashing. He replaced plenty of doors and windows that were rotted down through the 2x6 framing.
134   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 8:37pm  

HeadSet says


GNL says


I just confirmed with 3 of my agents that total square footage is adjustable on our MLS.

I noticed that Zillow listings in Virginia do include total finished sqft, to include below grade finished area.


So, to give my final professional thought on this square footage disagreement...My local MLS (I won't say which one it is) automatically enters the tax recorded square footage which does not, in almost all cases, include the basement (both myself and wookie were/are wrong. I'll make a bet that only 1 of us will fess up though). Our MLS does allow the Realtor to adjust total square feet. And why not, people add on to their homes and finish their basements all the time. An agent would be an idiot imo if they did not list the TOTAL square footage of the home. Well, tax recording is done from the outside of the home. The Realtor has actual access to the home and therefore has more information (people can say whatever they want but the Realtor has more information than a drive-by dingbat does). The tax recorder does not know if the basement is finished or not so it is excluded. The Realtor can AND SHOULD adjust the total square footage if the basement is in fact finished. I'm guessing here but, in the history of my company, I'd say 90% of homes have finished basements. Think about this...your home and another home down the street are identical except for the basement. Yours is finished but both your agent and the agent for the home down the street list at the same total square feet of 1800. With the search capabilities being what they are, your home will come up side by side with the home down the street that has an unfinished basement listed at $75,000 less than your home. Now, as the seller, would you want that? Or would you want the type of Realtors we work with (you know, professional and informed) or an agent that won't use everything to their and your advantage when trying to get the max price for your home? As I said before, total square footage is a grey area and some people are more savvy that others OR it may be because of their local MLS(?).
135   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 8:38pm  

HeadSet says


GNL says


Both of my mother inlaws

You have 2 mothers-in-law? That circumstance is a comedian's dream. And speaking of big homes falling apart, a friend of mine made a living repairing rot damage to 2-year-old homes in an upscale neighborhood. This neighborhood had lots of equity locusts from NY and CT, as indicated by the signs the builder put up in front of each home as it was being built. Apparently, these homes were built faster than the county inspector could look at them since many of the homes my friend repaired were missing code items like flashing. He replaced plenty of doors and windows that were rotted down through the 2x6 framing.


Yep, my wife's parents divorced when she was 9 and her father got remarried. Get this, she's closer to her step mother than her own mother.

2-year old homes with wood rot? No builder's warranty? I have a flipper friend we do a bit of work for. He is about 55 I'd say. Still lives in the neighborhood he grew up in. ALL of his work comes from that neighborhood. He flips enough homes to certainly made his millions.
136   richwicks   2023 Sep 1, 8:40pm  

GNL says

Yep, my wife's parents divorced when she was 9 and her father got remarried. Get this, she's closer to her step mother than her own mother.


Good to see a relationship work out.
137   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 8:48pm  

richwicks says


GNL says


Yep, my wife's parents divorced when she was 9 and her father got remarried. Get this, she's closer to her step mother than her own mother.


Good to see a relationship work out.


Her mother is a liberal loon and has been married 3 times. She's working on #4 now. We haven't been down to visit her since the beggining of the plandemic. She worships her TV. Her step mother is a NY City Italian. Boy howdy is she a no bullshit kind of woman. I LOVE that woman.
138   Eman   2023 Sep 1, 9:39pm  

I don’t know the practice elsewhere, but to be considered “living space” and included in the house square footage, the basement must have egress (minimum door and window sizes, or a ladder if there’s no 2nd door for the attic unit) for fire escape.

Basement, finished or unfinished, can be mentioned in the ad, but shouldn’t be included in the living square footage if it doesn’t meet the “living space” requirements. Otherwise, one is open his/herself up for liability. This is my understanding for CA real estate.
139   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 9:44pm  

Eman says


I don’t know the practice elsewhere, but to be considered “living space” and included in the house square footage, the basement must have egress (minimum door and window sizes, or a ladder if there’s no 2nd door for the attic unit) for fire escape.

Basement, finished or unfinished, can be mentioned in the ad, but shouldn’t be included in the living square footage if it doesn’t meet the “living space” requirements. Otherwise, one is open his/herself up for liability. This is my understanding for CA real estate.

In our area, egress is for bedroom legality. But, I got to tell you, this is a grey area also depending on grandfather clauses and county and/or city ordinance.
140   Eman   2023 Sep 1, 9:46pm  

@Wookieman,

The practice is different for different markets. I know agents/brokers didn’t use professional photographers for short sales, REOs and lower end housing.

For MY market, most people hire professional photographers for also professional stagers for their listings. For my flips, both are a must. Professional photographer costs $300-$400 including “twightlight shots”. Staging costs anywhere between $2.5-$5k depending on the size of the house. We also pay for all inspections upfront including house, termites and roof. This helps buyers putting in offers without contingencies.
141   Eman   2023 Sep 1, 9:51pm  

@GNL,

Your comment on Wookie’s wife making $300k/year reminded me of this:

How do you define a successful woman? A woman who makes more money than her husband can spend.

How do you define a successful man? A man who finds such woman. Wookie is a successful man by this definition. 🤣

I don’t have any issues with my wife making a lot more money than me. In fact, I would be proud to have a wife who makes more money than me. There’s no shame to it. Interestingly, the way I phrase it when I talked to other people at real estate meetups always got them to think I married a rich wife. It’s all good.
142   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 9:54pm  

Eman says


Wookieman,

The practice is different for different markets. I know agents/brokers didn’t use professional photographers for short sales, REOs and lower end housing.

For MY market, most people hire professional photographers for also professional stagers for their listings. For my flips, both are a must. Professional photographer costs $300-$400 including “twightlight shots”. Staging costs anywhere between $2.5-$5k depending on the size of the house. We also pay for all inspections upfront including house, termites and roof. This helps buyers putting in offers without contingencies.

We did a 10,000 square foot house today. Floor plan, photos and 3D. Total hours onsite = 2.5 hours. Cost = slightly over $1,000. Of course, there are some expenses.
143   Eman   2023 Sep 1, 9:56pm  

GNL says

Eman says



I don’t know the practice elsewhere, but to be considered “living space” and included in the house square footage, the basement must have egress (minimum door and window sizes, or a ladder if there’s no 2nd door for the attic unit) for fire escape.

Basement, finished or unfinished, can be mentioned in the ad, but shouldn’t be included in the living square footage if it doesn’t meet the “living space” requirements. Otherwise, one is open his/herself up for liability. This is my understanding for CA real estate.

In our area, egress is for bedroom legality. But, I got to tell you, this is a grey area also depending on grandfather clauses and county and/or city ordinance.

This is why I said MY market. My experience is based on talking to code enforcement inspectors.

We have 2 attic units. One has 2 doors, entry and exit. Windows meet egress requirements. The other only has an entry door so a fire escape ladder was required/installed in 1964 when it was converted to a legal unit. All bedroom and living room windows meet egress requirements.
144   Eman   2023 Sep 1, 9:58pm  

GNL says

Eman says



Wookieman,

The practice is different for different markets. I know agents/brokers didn’t use professional photographers for short sales, REOs and lower end housing.

For MY market, most people hire professional photographers for also professional stagers for their listings. For my flips, both are a must. Professional photographer costs $300-$400 including “twightlight shots”. Staging costs anywhere between $2.5-$5k depending on the size of the house. We also pay for all inspections upfront including house, termites and roof. This helps buyers putting in offers without contingencies.

We did a 10,000 square foot house today. Floor plan, photos and 3D. Total hours onsite = 2.5 hours. Cost = slightly over $1,000. Of course, there are some expenses.

As I’ve shared on here, most of our flips are 1,000-1,700sf. Big houses are money pits.
145   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 9:59pm  

Eman says

GNL,

Your comment on Wookie’s wife making $300k/year reminded me of this:

How do you define a successful woman? A woman who makes more money than her husband can spend.

How do you define a successful man? A man who finds such woman. Wookie is a successful man by this definition. 🤣

I don’t have any issues with my wife making a lot more money than me. In fact, I would be proud to have a wife who makes more money than me. There’s no shame to it. Interestingly, the way I phrase it when I talked to other people at real estate meetups always got them to think I married a rich wife. It’s all good.

I agree with you, no shame in a wife that makes good money. I've been on patnet for a good number of years now and yesterday I got a hair up my ass. He is a braggert (I'm not trying to stir the pot all over again here) and some things just do not add up to me about the things he says. Who cares really. I just decided to call him out.
146   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 10:07pm  

Eman says


I know agents/brokers didn’t use professional photographers for short sales, REOs and lower end housing.

I think this is a mistake. We do lots of rundown listings, REOs and even some foreclosures. I've seen them all. One of my closing lines to Realtors is..."If you aren't online, you're invisible." Think about it, who do you want to purchase these homes? Flippers and Jane and John fixer uppers. They are the ones who will most likely pay the most. Actually Eman, you'd know better than I would on who's likely to pay the most. Would the tear down guy pay the most? But they've got to see it. Floor plans help in these types of sales also. As always, these are my opinions.
147   Eman   2023 Sep 1, 10:13pm  

GNL says

Eman says


I know agents/brokers didn’t use professional photographers for short sales, REOs and lower end housing.

I think this is a mistake. We do lots of rundown listings, REOs and even some foreclosures. I've seen them all. One of my closing lines to Realtors is..."If you aren't online, you're invisible." Think about it, who do you want to purchase these homes? Flippers and Jane and John fixer uppers. They are the ones who will most likely pay the most. But they've got to see it. Floor plans help in these types of sales also. As always, these are my opinions.

This is just based on my observation during the last housing crash. They have photos on all their listings, but not professionally taken.

It seems like floor plans are something standard for your market. Floor plans on listings are not common in our market unless it’s new construction.
148   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 10:23pm  

Eman says

It seems like floor plans are something standard for your market. Floor plans on listings are not common in our market unless it’s new construction

I wouldn't say they're standard but we do push them. It's part of our core product (we have an interactive product that combines photos and the floor plan) and it's a nice upsell.

Btw, if you're interested, there's a pretty cool app called Cubicasa that draws floor plans. After a few tries, it's super simple especially on the size houses you mentioned.
149   WookieMan   2023 Sep 5, 6:08pm  

GNL says


He is a braggert (I'm not trying to stir the pot all over again here) and some things just do not add up to me about the things he says. Who cares really. I just decided to call him out.

Call me out for what? Explain? There's not a single lie I've told here. What's the point? No intention of fake impressing a single soul here. If you feel that way that's a personal issue on your end and insecurity. I don't lie. I ran a business top to bottom for 15 years that grossed more in 5 years than you have in a lifetime. You need to slow your roll with me. My wife grossed more in the last 6 months than you probably have since you started your business. I don't get the attacks. Let me know when you do $5M worth of photos in 6 months.... I'll wait. I won't because I know it would be a lie knowing the business.
150   AD   2023 Oct 4, 11:07pm  

.

saw this on Zero Hedge...84% of corporate suite executives expect a recession in 2024... for the Dems, that better mean by late summer that they can convince enough voters the economy at least has been recovering ...
.


151   AmericanKulak   2023 Oct 4, 11:30pm  

There's already a recession: Biden's Economic Council suddenly changed the definition

So much bullshit, it's easy to forget it:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/white-house-goes-on-offense-to-argue-that-the-us-is-not-in-a-recession-.html
152   AD   2023 Oct 5, 12:03am  

AmericanKulak says


There's already a recession: Biden's Economic Council suddenly changed the definition


Okay 1st and 2nd quarters of 2022 had negative GDP growth, but GDP has recovered after that. But it could be shortlived as GDP can have two consecutive negative growth quarters from now until election day 2024.

I wonder if we are still in a bear market though since the S&P 500 is down about 11% from its all time high of 4818 set in December 2021. Recall it dropped about 33% around April 2020 and 21% in October 2022.
,



.
153   GNL   2023 Oct 5, 4:37am  

ad says

Okay 1st and 2nd quarters of 2022 had negative GDP growth, but GDP has recovered after that.

It's pretty hard to believe anything the government says. Not saying it isn't true.
154   GNL   2023 Oct 5, 4:53am  



155   AD   2023 Oct 5, 8:55pm  

I give credit to Fox Business on this article today: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-data-reveals-crash-not-since-great-depression-could-hit-2024

They report M2 money supply dropping rapidly while still prices remain high. They mention how money supply and prices both dropped precipitously during the Great Depression.

I hope we see CPI reported this month (for September 2023) at a monthly gain of less than 0.3% and an annual gain of less than 3.5%.

.
156   Misc   2023 Oct 6, 1:27am  

Ahhhhh, those crazy kids at Credit Suisse blew something up. For those keeping track, a TBTF (too big to fail) bank failed. The depositors made it out without losses. Bond and stock holders...well not so much. Banksters think they will get government bailouts, but I'm gonna bet the next TBTF that goes is gonna get Nationalized. Could be that by trying to save the banks' depositors, that country's government could collapse.

TBTF banks don't really lend to each other nowadays (haven't since September 17, 2019). They cannot therefore count on funds from other banks. They are reliant on Central banks.

There is probably gonna be more bank crisis coming up. We could see rapid movements in currencies. There have been a lot of one way bets on a stronger dollar (with plenty of leverage on those trades). Everyone thinks they can exit their trades before other actors can.

There may be a re-pricing event coming.

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