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In 1969, 14 men ventured to the British Antarctic Survey Base on Adelaide Island. It is situated on the south-west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, around 1000 miles south of the Falkland Islands. The base is isolated from late March to mid-December every year which coincides with the departure and arrival of two survey aircraft.




... The 14 men arrived by sea and air at various times between December 1968 and March 1969, relieving a previous group of men. The Base members were all between the ages of 21 and 35 and in good health.

The last aircraft left on 18 March and flew north for the winter, after which the Base was completely isolated from the outside world, except for radio. In effect, these 14 men were in lockdown with their only company being each other and five husky dogs.




... The medical history of each Base member was noted throughout the period of isolation and when symptoms and signs appeared they were recorded on daily observation charts. Serum and nasal samples were taken monthly from the men.

This was the closest you will ever get to a controlled clinical trial to establish whether lockdowns work to prevent the transmission of viruses. These men were alone, for months on end, in the middle of nowhere.

Before this expedition it was commonly believed that on small Antarctic bases such as this, isolated for many months, upper respiratory infections died out in the first few weeks of isolation. Previously, the arrival of relief ships or aircraft resulted in outbreaks of respiratory diseases.

However, this time something strange happened.

As I say, 14 young and healthy men arrived at the Base with no illnesses. The last aircraft left on 18 March leaving them in total isolation. For the next 17 weeks, all the men remained in good health with no colds observed or detected clinically. Two men left the Base with their dog teams at the end of June for 6 months, during which time they suffered no respiratory symptoms.

Then, on 14 July 1969, one of the 12 remaining men presented with respiratory symptoms closely resembling those of a mild to moderately severe cold. Over the next 2 weeks, eight out of the 12 men suffered similar respiratory symptoms and a further two had attacks of sneezing.

Remember, these men had not seen another soul for 17 weeks and had been healthy the whole time but then suddenly, out of nowhere, a virus had made them ill. ...

Researchers trying to work out what had happened at the Base found that nasal washings from two men, affected in the outbreak, produced cytopathic effects in WI38 cells and these effects were reproduced in the next passage of WI38 cells. The changes in the cells looked similar to those caused by coronaviruses but they couldn’t definitively say that they were caused by a coronavirus.

No virus was detected when samples were examined with an electron microscope. Nor did the samples yield any pathogenic bacteria. ...

The researchers concluded that the occurrence of a common cold during isolation, when the chances of introduction of a new infection from the outside was virtually nil, implied that in some way the virus persisted, either in the environment or in the men.

One way for the virus to persist was in the respiratory tract of one or more of the men. If such were the case it would be necessary to postulate a triggering mechanism to precipitate the symptoms. The researchers found it interesting that the symptoms occurred 4 days after a precipitous fall in outside temperatures and during one of the coldest months of the year. ...

What this cold outbreak shows is that however hard or early you lockdown, you will never be able to prevent transmission of a virus. Viral swarms exist within each of us and eventually these will mutate to evade the host’s immune system or better adapt to the host environment. Mutations may occur in one individual or when the swarms mix when humans interact with others.

Even in the complete isolation of an Antarctic Base, a virus managed to escape detection for over 17 weeks before producing symptoms in an individual and then spreading to others.

Lockdowns don’t, and will never work.