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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ


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2022 Dec 26, 9:49am   52,319 views  778 comments

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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ

Allysia FinleyDec. 25, 2022 6:20 pm ET

Toyota’s CEO delivers a timely warning, and many states echo it.

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda recently caused the climate lobby to blow a fuse by speaking a truth about battery electric vehicles that his fellow auto executives dare not. “Just like the fully autonomous cars that we were all supposed to be driving by now,” Mr. Toyoda said in Thailand, “I think BEVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe.” He added that a “silent majority” in the auto industry share his view, “but they think it’s the trend, so they can’t speak out loudly.”
The Biden administration seems to believe that millions of Americans will rush out to buy electric vehicles if only the government throws enough subsidies at them. Last year’s infrastructure bill included $7.5 billion in grants for states to expand their charging networks. But it’s a problem when even the states are warning the administration that electric vehicles aren’t ready to go mainstream.

Maine notes in a plan submitted to the Federal Highway Administration this summer that “cold temperatures will remain a top challenge” for adoption, since “cold weather reduces EV range and increases charging times.” When temperatures drop to 5 degrees Fahrenheit, the cars achieve only 54% of their quoted range. A vehicle that’s supposed to be able to go 250 miles between charges will make it only 135 miles on average. At 32 degrees—a typical winter day in much of the country—a Tesla Model 3 that in ideal conditions can go 282 miles between charges will make it only 173 miles.
Imagine if the 100 million Americans who took to the road over the holidays were driving electric cars. How many would have been stranded as temperatures plunged? There wouldn’t be enough tow trucks—or emergency medics—for people freezing in their cars.
The Transportation Department is requiring states to build charging stations every 50 miles along interstate highways and within a mile of off-ramps to reduce the likelihood of these scenarios. But most state electrical grids aren’t built to handle this many charging stations and will thus require expensive upgrades. Illinois, for one, warns of “challenges related to sufficient electric grid capacity, particularly in rural areas of the state.”

Charging stations in rural areas with little traffic are also unlikely to be profitable and could become “stranded assets,” as many states warn. Wyoming says out-of-state traffic from non-Tesla electric vehicles would have to increase 100-fold to cover charger costs under the administration’s rules. Tesla has already scoped out premier charging locations for its proprietary network. Good luck to competitors.

New Mexico warns that “poor station maintenance can lead to stations being perpetually broken and unusable, particularly in rural or hard to access locations. If an EV charging station is built in an area without electrical capacity and infrastructure to support its use, it will be unusable until the appropriate upgrades are installed.”

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Arizona says “private businesses may build and operate a station if a grant pays for the first five years of operations and maintenance” but might abandon the project if it later proves unprofitable. Many other states echo this concern, noting that federal funds could result in stranded assets.

The administration aims to build 500,000 stations, but states will likely have to spend their own money to keep them running. Like other federal inducements, these grants may entice states to assume what could become huge financial liabilities.

Federal funds also come with many rules, including “buy America” procurement requirements, which demand that chargers consist of mostly U.S.-made components. New Jersey says these could “delay implementation by several years” since only a few manufacturers can currently meet them. New York also says it will be challenging to comply with the web of federal rules, including the National Environmental Policy Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act of 1970, and a 1960 federal law that bars charging stations in rest areas.

Oh, and labor rules. The administration requires that electrical workers who install and maintain the stations be certified by the union-backed Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Training Program. New Mexico says much of the state lacks contractors that meet this mandate, which will reduce competition and increase costs.

Technical problems abound too. Virginia says fast-charging hardware “has a short track record” and is “prone to malfunctions.” Equipment “previously installed privately in Virginia has had a high failure rate shown in user comments and reports on social media,” and “even compatibility with credit card readers has been unexpectedly complicated.”

A study this spring led by University of California researchers found that more than a quarter of public direct-current fast-charging stations in the San Francisco Bay Area were unusable. Drivers will be playing roulette every time they head to a station. If all this weren’t disconcerting enough, Arizona warns cyber vulnerabilities could compromise customer financial transactions, charging infrastructure, electric vehicles and the grid.

Politicians and auto makers racing to eliminate the internal-combustion engine are bound to crash into technological, logistic and financial realities, as Mr. Toyoda warned. The casualties will be taxpayers, but the administration doesn’t seem to care.


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153   socal2   2024 Jan 16, 12:07pm  

Who here at Patnet is arguing for a "forced transition" to EV's?

Can you use your own thoughts and logic and stop spamming us arguments that no one is making? No one is forcing anyone to buy a Tesla. Tesla has massive demand because word of mouth about the quality of their product.

I have personally gotten 3 referrals convincing Conservative truck guys and motor heads to buy Teslas simply by giving them test rides in my car.

What other car company (or any product company in history) can have this level of success without advertising? Let alone having the Media, Democrat Politicians, Unions, Woke retards, short-sellers, OPEC, Russia all against it?
154   Eman   2024 Jan 16, 12:11pm  

People have a job you know. “Working” between 10:30am-12pm. Then lunch from 12pm to whenever and go home. Then exercise from when I’m home to 2-3pm…ish.

There’s life outside Patnet you know. 😂
155   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 12:12pm  

The hard reality is that EVs have long been a niche-market product rather than a mass-market one. Further, that niche market is primarily defined by class and ideology. Some 57% of EV owners earn more than $100,000 annually, 75% are male, and 87% are white.


As they lose their jobs to DEI, those white dudes won't be able to make those payments.

Last October, researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, released a remarkable study that found “counties with affluent left-leaning cities” like Cambridge, San Francisco, and Seattle “play a disproportionately large role in driving the entire national increase in EV adoption.”[xiii] The researchers found that over the past decade, about half of all the EVs sold in the U.S. were sold in the most heavily Democratic counties in the country.


This explains socal2, at least.



https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/my-us-senate-testimony-on-epas-ev
156   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 12:16pm  

socal2 says

Who here at Patnet is arguing for a "forced transition" to EV's?

Can you use your own thoughts and logic and stop spamming us arguments that no one is making? No one is forcing anyone to buy a Tesla. Tesla has massive demand because word of mouth about the quality of their product.

I have personally gotten 3 referrals convincing Conservative truck guys and motor heads to buy Teslas simply by giving them test rides in my car.

What other car company (or any product company in history) can have this level of success without advertising? Let alone having the Media, Democrat Politicians, Unions, Woke retards, short-sellers, OPEC, Russia all against it?


You keep.making that strawman argument up while avoiding the hard facts. Just like you do with everything else.

Eman hasn't denounced it, so he's in board. Fluffing for Tesla!
157   Eric Holder   2024 Jan 16, 12:35pm  

I looked at Teslas offered by Hertz and the prices don't look attractive at all. $28K for a 3 y.o. base Model3 with 60K miles on the clock? When the new one is $38K (-$7500)? Some deal. Does it also mean they are not all that desperate to unload?

What's more interesting is they don't seem to have any Polestars for sale, which is weird, because if I was them I would unload these first. $50K for a FWD version, no charging network, very meh as a car overall...
158   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 12:59pm  

Eric Holder says


I looked at Teslas offered by Hertz and the prices don't look attractive at all. $28K for a 3 y.o. base Model3 with 60K miles on the clock? When the new one is $38K (-$7500)? Some deal. Does it also mean they are not all that desperate to unload?

What's more interesting is they don't seem to have any Polestars for sale, which is weird, because if I was them I would unload these first. $50K for a FWD version, no charging network, very meh as a car overall...


If they want to unload them, they'll reduce the prices.

Actually, they are probably going to be mass auctioning them off to used car dealers or brokers in between.

Nothing proves a car's true market worth more than it's market resale price.

And EVs right now are dog shit. (waiting for socal2 to make a bullshit transfiguration of 'market' into 'utility' value)

Even with new cars, car dealers are selling their dealership contract back to GM because they don't want to carry them anymore. That's BAD.

They are still a niche product. Vanity vehicles for a very Libtard subset of the population concentrated into very narrow geographic locations. Now this is an important phase for new products prior to real mass adoption, that's true. But that is all it is despite Team socal2 & Eman Fluffing for Tesla while pretending to be meaningfully debating the future viability of EVs.

In fact, their comments reinforce my 'niche' and 'vanity' characterizations.
159   Eric Holder   2024 Jan 16, 1:00pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

If they want to unload them, they'll reduce the prices.

Nothing proves a car's true market worth more than it's market resale price.


Well, duh.
160   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 1:02pm  

Eric Holder says


Well, duh.


socal2, Eman and probably others following along actually have to be told that, believe it or not.

Not that they will listen. This is emotional for them.
161   socal2   2024 Jan 16, 1:30pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

They are still a niche product. Vanity vehicles for a very Libtard subset of the population concentrated into very narrow geographic locations.


Yet the Tesla Model Y was the best selling car (of all types) in the world beating out the Toyota Corolla. Months of backlog without a lick of advertising.
https://www.greencars.com/news/the-tesla-model-y-is-the-best-selling-car-in-the-world

Just wait until the Cybertruck production ramps up.

What other car in the history of the world has this type of reaction on the street?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCyy5yqkrWE
https://twitter.com/X_E_U_S/status/1746521721023189046
https://twitter.com/teslaownersSV/status/1746393808680722690
162   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 1:51pm  

socal2 says


Yet the Tesla Model Y was the best selling car (of all types) in the world beating out the Toyota Corolla.


Tesla Fluffing Example...what number is this one? 6?

This still holds true:

UkraineIsFucked says

They are still a niche product. Vanity vehicles for a very Libtard subset of the population concentrated into very narrow geographic locations
163   socal2   2024 Jan 16, 3:36pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

They are still a niche product. Vanity vehicles for a very Libtard subset of the population concentrated into very narrow geographic locations


Explain again how the best selling car in the world is niche?
164   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 3:58pm  

socal2 says


Explain again how the best selling car in the world is niche?


Already did. And the fact that only 6 percent in the US want an EV for their next vehicle explains it even more.

Oh... and far more cars other than Tesla are sold - both here and especially abroad. So one can't claim Tesla's are the world's best selling cars.

AND as far as EVs go, China's BYD outsells Tesla: https://mishtalk.com/economics/only-6-percent-in-the-us-want-an-ev-for-their-next-vehicle/

You see, the 'world' comprises a helluva lot more than just Southern California.

Oh...one more added caveat: when you have woketarded CEOs at Herrz and the other fleet buyers ruining their company's net worth by purchasing Teslas in the tens of thousands, that's going to goose the sales figures.

"That won't do nothing but make Cadillac number-one dealership in the country." - Barbershop (2002)

Why do you post your bullshit when it can be so easily proven to be bullshit?
165   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 4:06pm  

Since EVs are broadly more expensive to purchase upfront than comparable gas vehicles, the best way to assess whether an EV will ultimately be cheaper to own over the long term is by looking at its break-even time: when its lower recurring costs make up for its higher upfront cost. Woody and his team found that 200-mile range compact and midsize electric sedans reach this point in 3 to 7 years, while 300-mile range variants take nine to 20 years to break even. Electric SUVs and trucks with 300 miles of range generally take more than 20 years, while 400-mile range EVs will never break even over their lifetimes.


https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2024/01/16/are_evs_actually_cheaper_to_own_maybe_not_1005129.html
166   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 4:26pm  

More on socal2's 'best selling car':

Desperate Tesla owners in and around Chicago were seen trying to charge their vehicles with no luck amid frigid temperatures that have gripped the Midwest.

“Nothing. No juice. Still on zero percent,” Tyler Beard, who had been trying to recharge his Tesla at an Oak Brook, Illinois Tesla supercharging station since Sunday afternoon, told the news outlet. “And this is like three hours being out here after being out here three hours yesterday.”

“This is crazy. It’s a disaster. Seriously,” said Tesla owner Chalis Mizelle. Mizelle said she abandoned her car and got a ride from a friend after hers would not charge. “We got a bunch of dead robots out here,” one man said.




[Someone pushes a Tesla at a Chicago-area vehicle charging station where many of the electric vehicles have been forced to sit amid freezing temperatures. Many of the vehicles failed to charge at stations around Chicago amid the cold weather.] Best Selling Car In America!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/chicago-area-tesla-charging-stations-lined-with-dead-cars-in-freezing-cold-a-bunch-of-dead-robots-out-here


original link
167   socal2   2024 Jan 16, 4:34pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

Already did.


Where - how?

Also, it is staggering how much more successful this American company is compared to everyone else including Volkswagen. Most of these OEM's will be out of business before the end of this decade. They are nothing more than a bankrupt Municipal Pension fund who make crappy cars on the side.

More math for the short bus folks. Less than 2 years ago, all the "smart people" were predicting VW would be eclipsing Tesla's EV sales and profits by now.



https://twitter.com/alojoh/status/1747303213173235838
168   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 4:36pm  

socal2 says


Where - how?


Ok. You are now just trolling. And you aren't even doing a good job as that.

Hey @Eman ! Proud of your boy here?
169   Eman   2024 Jan 16, 5:07pm  

Finished the workout earlier too. Focus on things that better your life. The stuff on Patnet is for fun. Don’t get to hang up on it if we disagree.


170   Eman   2024 Jan 16, 11:07pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

Eman says



seems like you have never owned a Tesla, or even an EV for that matter. The issue with Hertz taking a loss is not what you understand it to be. It’s alright. Time to move on.


Tesla Fluffer Example #3. Like all the others, it is all about justifying your Tesla ownership. You can't argue on the facts/data. This one is ad hominem, too.

Wow. You make this too etop.

What amazes me Eman is how you tie your rep to socal2's. Talk about cutting off your own (Tesla tattooed, I am sure) street cred balls. << now THAT is how you deliver an ad hominem.

There’s nothing to justify. Hertz bought the EVs at the top of the market when inflation was running rampant, and there were NO tax incentives.

Let’s run some numbers:

Hertz paid $50k/car without tax incentives.
The same car is selling for $39k with $7.5-$15k tax incentives brand new. Run the math and see how much beating Hertz is taking…for the right reason. Who in their right mind would pay $25k for a used Tesla model 3 with 70-90k miles on it?
171   Eman   2024 Jan 16, 11:14pm  

Eric Holder says

I looked at Teslas offered by Hertz and the prices don't look attractive at all. $28K for a 3 y.o. base Model3 with 60K miles on the clock? When the new one is $38K (-$7500)? Some deal. Does it also mean they are not all that desperate to unload?

What's more interesting is they don't seem to have any Polestars for sale, which is weird, because if I was them I would unload these first. $50K for a FWD version, no charging network, very meh as a car overall...

Our siblings bought a few months ago and got $9.5-$15k tax rebates and tax credit. $2k to $7.5k from State and $7.5k from Federal. PG&E also offers $500 to install a level 2 charger at home. There are a lot more rebates for low income folks and folks with a beater car, etc… the incentives could be over $20k if one qualified for all these.

This is why Hertz is taking a bath with their used fleet EV. It’s the freaking market and all the incentives that are being offer. It’s not their fault or the car’s fault.
172   Eman   2024 Jan 16, 11:17pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

Eric Holder says



Well, duh.


socal2, Eman and probably others following along actually have to be told that, believe it or not.

Not that they will listen. This is emotional for them.

Projecting much? I buy a new car every couple years. They’re tax deductible. The business is paying for them unlike W2 folks. There’s nothing to be emotional about.
173   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 11:36pm  

Eman says

Who in their right mind would pay $25k for a used Tesla model 3 with 70-90k miles on it?


Exactly.

PoS.
174   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 11:37pm  

Eman says

years. They’re tax deductible. The business is paying for them unlike W2 folks. There’s nothing to be emotional about.


Sure there is, no matter how snobbist you wrap it all up.
175   Eman   2024 Jan 17, 8:03am  

UkraineIsFucked says

Eman says


years. They’re tax deductible. The business is paying for them unlike W2 folks. There’s nothing to be emotional about.


Sure there is, no matter how snobbist you wrap it all up.

Jealousy much? Every man chooses his own path. I love the path I’ve been on in the last 1.5 decades. I knew I wanted my own company before I graduated college. The opportunity door opened in 2009, and I jumped in head first. Thanks to the higher power. 🙏
176   Eman   2024 Jan 17, 8:04am  

UkraineIsFucked says

socal2 says



Yet the Tesla Model Y was the best selling car (of all types) in the world beating out the Toyota Corolla.


Tesla Fluffing Example...what number is this one? 6?

This still holds true:

UkraineIsFucked says

They are still a niche product. Vanity vehicles for a very Libtard subset of the population concentrated into very narrow geographic locations


At what point wouldn’t it be a niche product? 10%, 30%, 50% adoption?
177   Eman   2024 Jan 17, 8:08am  

“AND as far as EVs go, China's BYD outsells Tesla: https://mishtalk.com/economics/only-6-percent-in-the-us-want-an-ev-for-their-next-vehicle/”

I see you’re parroting without having an in-depth reading and understanding. It’s fact that BYD outsold Tesla on cars so did Toyota and Honda, etc…. However, BYD didn’t outsell Tesla on EV.
178   Eman   2024 Jan 17, 8:10am  

UkraineIsFucked says



Since EVs are broadly more expensive to purchase upfront than comparable gas vehicles, the best way to assess whether an EV will ultimately be cheaper to own over the long term is by looking at its break-even time: when its lower recurring costs make up for its higher upfront cost. Woody and his team found that 200-mile range compact and midsize electric sedans reach this point in 3 to 7 years, while 300-mile range variants take nine to 20 years to break even. Electric SUVs and trucks with 300 miles of range generally take more than 20 years, while 400-mile range EVs will never break even over their lifetimes.


https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2024/01/16/are_evs_actually_cheaper_to_own_maybe_not_1005129.html


Real clear science. 😂😂😂

I hope it’s more clear than “the vaccines are safe and effective.”
179   Eman   2024 Jan 17, 8:13am  

socal2 says

UkraineIsFucked says


Already did.


Where - how?

Also, it is staggering how much more successful this American company is compared to everyone else including Volkswagen. Most of these OEM's will be out of business before the end of this decade. They are nothing more than a bankrupt Municipal Pension fund who make crappy cars on the side.

More math for the short bus folks. Less than 2 years ago, all the "smart people" were predicting VW would be eclipsing Tesla's EV sales and profits by now.



https://twitter.com/alojoh/status/1747303213173235838

Don’t let facts get in the way of emotional journalism. 🤪
180   Eman   2024 Jan 17, 8:14am  

UkraineIsFucked says

socal2 says



Where - how?


Ok. You are now just trolling. And you aren't even doing a good job as that.

Hey Eman ! Proud of your boy here?

He’s not my boy, but he’s doing great if I can be honest with you.
181   RWSGFY   2024 Jan 17, 8:25am  

Porch is niche and is doing fine. VW is mainstream and doing meh. Maybe itʼs not such a bad thing to be a niche manufacturer after all...
182   socal2   2024 Jan 17, 8:36am  

RWSGFY says

Porch is niche and is doing fine. VW is mainstream and doing meh. Maybe itʼs not such a bad thing to be a niche manufacturer after all...


I don't think most people truly understand how much more profitable Tesla is compared to the other OEM's.

Elon and Tesla have revolutionized manufacturing bringing costs down.........and after building 2 massive new factories, they basically have zero debt unlike all the other OEM's that are drowning in debt and stuck with old outdated factories and massive pension libailities.



Also, keep in mind that Tesla is beating virtually all of the other OEM's even though Tesla is making a more expensive and difficult to build EV's. When you compare Tesla's margins to other OEM's just EV's, Tesla's lead is even larger!

Tesla is truly one of the best American success stories in my lifetime and their CEO is not a woke retard. But alot of MAGA and Conservatives still have their hate on.


183   Eman   2024 Jan 17, 9:19am  

I love America. I would love to support everything that is made here, but American cars suck compared to Japanese cars. It’s an honor to drive an American made car while having so much fun driving it. No Japanese cars for us as long as Tesla is still around. Definitely no German cars. The maintenance sucks…
184   Eman   2024 Jan 17, 9:20am  

RWSGFY says

Porch is niche and is doing fine. VW is mainstream and doing meh. Maybe itʼs not such a bad thing to be a niche manufacturer after all...

This is the thing. Do what works for yourself and your family. The pond is big enough for so many players. Everyone’s situation is different
186   Eman   2024 Jan 20, 8:16am  

Interesting take from someone who owns a diesel trucking company and has been driving a Tesla for a decade.

https://x.com/allevehicles/status/1748478129746620545?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q
187   HeadSet   2024 Jan 20, 9:25am  

Booger says

https://energytheory.com/volvo-ce-and-rolls-royce-bring-wood-burning-off-grid-ev-chargers/

I would not be surprised if those "wood burning" generators end up with an option to burn petroleum products.
188   HeadSet   2024 Jan 20, 9:31am  

Eman says

Interesting take from someone who owns a diesel trucking company and has been driving a Tesla for a decade.

https://x.com/allevehicles/status/1748478129746620545?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

It works for him because he owns private chargers that he needs not wait in line for. The big issue with low temperatures is the very slow charge rate along with the decreased range per charge. This means long lines for those who depend on public charging stations in cold weather.
189   Eman   2024 Jan 20, 9:59am  

HeadSet says

Eman says


Interesting take from someone who owns a diesel trucking company and has been driving a Tesla for a decade.

https://x.com/allevehicles/status/1748478129746620545?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

It works for him because he owns private chargers that he needs not wait in line for. The big issue with low temperatures is the very slow charge rate along with the decreased range per charge. This means long lines for those who depend on public charging stations in cold weather.

I’m a problem solver so I always look for solutions. I believe people, who have no access to a level 2 charger at home or work in cold climate, should think twice about driving/owning an EV. It’s not for everyone.

Thankfully, we live in the Bay Area and never have to deal with freezing or negative temperature. A friend drives a model Y and uses 110V charger at his 1-bedroom condo, and it works for him.

We have two level 2 chargers in our garage so it’s not a problem for us. Guests are encouraged to plug-in their car whenever they’re here as we have surplus with our solar. The 60amp charger, which is mounted near the garage door, is for both indoor and outdoor use. It gives 44 mph. Pretty sweet.
190   HeadSet   2024 Jan 20, 10:12am  

Eman says

The 60amp charger, which is mounted near the garage door, is for both indoor and outdoor use. It gives 44 mph.

The Bolt EUV I had would only get about 24 miles per hour of charge using a Level 2 charger. Even so, that is enough to charge the car overnight.
191   Eman   2024 Jan 20, 10:49am  

24 mph likely has a 40-amp circuit breaker?

In general, I do things with an intention in mind. I call it one time effort for long-term benefits. 😅

We have a 50-amp charger deep inside the garage as I back my car in. We get 30 mph. That’s plenty for overnight charging. The 60-amp is mainly for guests.

The laundry room is next to the garage. The dryer is 30-amp. We should get 18 mph with a 14-50 charging adapter if ever needed.
192   Eman   2024 Jan 20, 10:59am  

The Tesla community on X is strong. Here is a post from some white guy on his Tesla experience. It’s also true for us. We don’t see ourselves ever going back to driving ICE cars.

https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1748698497006600642?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

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