patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

Sure, there is excess worry, but saving for a few weeks of food and essentials is wisdom.

Having some canned food and dried rations in case of a flood or earthquake is not what I'm talking about, obviously 🙄. I have an emergency store, complete with weapons and ammo, but I honestly never think much about it.

Expecting the government to provide a free place to store your wealth, completely sheltered from the ravages of the free market, is unrealistic. Feeling victimized because the government does not care for and grow your wealth for you seems childish to me. If you don't like fiat dollars, just buy silver. Man up. How much time did Marcus Aurelius spend crying for nanny-state government protection? HINT: none.

This isn't medieval Europe, Kulak. We have a level of opportunity that previous generations couldn't have dreamed of. It's a shame to see folks squander it by wallowing in a mindset of scarcity and victimhood. The world is our collective oyster and t's possible for just about anyone in the western world to go out and not only seek, but find their pearl.

Nomograph says

I suppose I can talk about my own case. I would ballpark my net worth at around $10MM. Over the years I have invested in real estate, stocks, and private companies e.g. startup equity.

Just curious. Why did you feel the need to tell us the amount of your net worth in order to drive home your point?

Nomograph says

This isn't medieval Europe, Kulak. We have a level of opportunity that previous generations couldn't have dreamed of.

Reminds me of the exact same common mindset that was acted out in abundance just prior to the Wall Street Crash of 1929. Of course, that, along with real estate crashing, could never happen again, right? And what could possibly go wrong with the value of the Dollar when we are now approaching $35 Trillion in our official National Debt, along with another $120+ Trillion in off budget obligations. And please, don't even think about the $625+ Trillion in dollar denominated Derivatives.

Opportunities abound, and there is absolutely nothing to be concerned about.

Nomograph says

This isn't medieval Europe, Kulak. We have a level of opportunity that previous generations couldn't have dreamed of. It's a shame to see folks squander it by wallowing in a mindset of scarcity and victimhood. The world is our collective oyster and t's possible for just about anyone in the western world to go out and not only seek, but find their pearl.

I think excessive optimism and magic thinking is just as bad as excessive pessimism and dooming.

Most major social metrics - crime, addiction, mental health, illegit births, marriage/divorce rates - has been worsening since the 60s and 70s. GDP growth slowed, Wages have been flat since the 70s for the average American, health care more expensive, college education has skyrocketed higher than the rate of inflation for decades despite major cost-cutting developments like computing, remote learning, electronic quiz grading, PDFs, the cost of lab and science equipment plunging while increasing dramatically in features.

We have immigration levels of unskilled immigrants like it's 1910 and GNP is growing by 7% YoY, we don't invest in our own youth or workers. Corporations are appalled at the idea of having to train a good candidate for a few weeks.

And for sure, the $35T in Debt with nothing much in the way of new infrastructure to show for it.

But worst of all I think is Self-Actualization and Self-Help. It's causing leadership to be focused on being famous and retiring at 45, rather than a deeper sense of professionalism, dedication, and care. "Fuck it, by the time they figured out how we jerryrigged everything for the next few quarters, we'll be long since gone with the bonus we'll get!" For the "common clay", it makes everybody not appreciate what they have and accept shitty deals in the hopes of actualizing their way into a total different situation.

RayAmerica says

ust curious. Why did you feel the need to tell us the amount of your net worth in order to drive home your point?

Because it's an actual example and not a hypothetical.

To address your real point, 10MM is within reach of almost anyone. My home and investment properties that I have acquired over the years cover much of that figure. If I had simply left my money in the bank rather than invested, my net worth would likely be less than 1M. I suppose I could figure out an exact number but the motivation to do see seems to escape me 🤭.

AmericanKulak says

I think excessive optimism and magic thinking is just as bad as excessive pessimism and dooming.

False choice fallacy. I stopped reading right there.

Nomograph says

False choice fallacy. I stopped reading right there.

Get accused of the very False Choice Fallacy, exactly what I was pointing out when I said.

AmericanKulak says

I think excessive optimism and magic thinking is just as bad as excessive pessimism and dooming.

In other words, a plea that one extreme is as bad as the other. I'm presenting an argument that is very OPPOSITE of a false choice, but a GREAT EXAMPLE of trying to point out an "Excluded Middle" option.

The whole thing being a continuation of arguments like:

Sure, there is excess worry, but saving for a few weeks of food and essentials is wisdom. Since the invention of Agriculture about 8000 BPY, it was necessary in most places to survive the winter season.

Nomograph says

This isn't medieval Europe, Kulak. We have a level of opportunity that previous generations couldn't have dreamed of. It's a shame to see folks squander it by wallowing in a mindset of scarcity and victimhood. The world is our collective oyster and t's possible for just about anyone in the western world to go out and not only seek, but find their pearl.

Translation: "Let them eat cake." - Marie Antoinette (attrubuted)

Opportunity does not equal agency to be able to avail oneself to exploit said opportunity.

Nomograph says

I suppose I can talk about my own case. I would ballpark my net worth at around $10MM. Over the years I have invested in real estate, stocks, and private companies e.g. startup equity.

How much did you inherit? How did you get that initial money to invest?

Nomograph says

To address your real point, 10MM is within reach of almost anyone.

Almost anyone? Really?

Nomograph says

Patrick, I would like to hear why you think that tying currency to metal is a good practice.

@Nomograph

So that the Federal Reserve cannot steal money from everyone continuously, as they have been doing.

Nomograph says

Furthermore, low-level inflation prevents deflation.

Silver inflates, slowly, as more silver is discovered. Definitely much faster than gold does. So you can have a bit of inflation with silver.

Nomograph says

Currency deflation is one of the worst conditions for an economy because it discourages investing and encourages currency hoarding. The velocity of the currency (i.e. the number of times it changes hands pur unit time) slows to a crawl and the economy stagnates. People spend only what they absolutely need to because that dollar will be worth more tomorrow.

Maybe people should spend only what they absolutely need to.

Nomograph says

I'm confused now. How does, say, a dollar bill "rob me blind." HINT: It doesn't. If you stuff your dollar bills in a mattress for years while knowing their value slowly lessens, you have robbed yourself. Government-issued currency is just a convenient medium to facilitate the exchange of goods and services and inflation insures that it is used primarily for that purpose.

Do you really think it's the government job to grow your wealth and keep it safe for you?

So your assumption is that without the government to regulate and issue currency, we too dumb to do it ourselves? I guess you'd say same for healthcare, drugs, transportation, etc. Just curious, can you provide an example of government ever making anything better..?

As to the inflation comment, Jefferson(?) already said it best:
"If the American people ever allow the private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered"

Your choice to ignore history and the destruction central banking inflation causes does not change reality.

RWSGFY says

I'm pretty sure $100 invested in AAPL, GOOG, NFLX, TSLA, NVDA, AMZN and such 10-15 years ago has beaten inflation even with taxes taken into account. Heck, even plain old boring S&P index fund did that, so no stock-picking prowess or luck necessary.

I took Apple and the past 10 years. Price has gone up about 82%. Inflation as a calculation of the rate of growth of the money supply(CPI is shit), is 46% during that period. That means a realized gain of 36%. Now, if you look at the price of physical silver over that same period, it has increased about the same amount(and metals are highly suppressed).

So what does this mean? In terms of real money, your stock investments didn't gain shit. But since our economy is built on Monopoly money, and fucking no one accounts for taxes, and especially not inflation, they see more zeros and assume they've made a profit.

You aren't making more, and stuff isn't more expensive. The money is just worth-less...

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/nebraska-ends-income-taxes-gold-and-silver-declares-cbdcs-are-not-lawful-money

With Gov. Jim Pillen’s recent signature, Nebraska has become the 12th state to end capital gains taxes on sales of gold and silver.

LB 1317 is the fourth major sound money bill to become law this year, as state lawmakers across the nation scramble to protect the public from the ravages of inflation and runaway federal debt.

Under the new Nebraska law, any “gains” or “losses” on precious metal sales reported on federal income tax returns are backed out, thereby removing them from the calculation of a Nebraska taxpayer’s adjusted gross income (AGI).

Supported by the Sound Money Defense League, Money Metals Exchange, and in-state advocates, Nebraska’s sound money measure passed out of the unicameral legislature’s Revenue committee unanimously before being amended into a larger bill.

Sponsor Sen. Ben Hansen said upon news of the formal enactment of his legislation:

Gold and silver are the only forms of currency mentioned in our Constitution and with that comes the people’s ability to use it as such without penalty from the government. Saving, and using, gold and silver is our right and one of the only checks and balances to our federal government’s unending devaluation of our paper currency.

Taxpayers often realize ‘gains’ when converting the monetary metals back into Federal Reserve notes even though the ‘gains’ do not reflect an increase in real value but rather reflect the currency’s ongoing devaluation.

This is cute but they shouldʼve abolished SIT alltogether.

Life should not be made arbitrarily hard for people who are honest and work hard. Life is hard in general, but humans should not make life harder for other humans just because it's fun to watch others grovel. That was the guiding principle of the Declaration of Independence and the United States Constitution. Fuck all of you who don't believe me - read it for your commie selves.

Having to learn how to invest outside of your wheelhouse just to counter the corruption of the money that you earn through your livelihood - yes, the 1- and 2-sigma intelligent people can figure this shit out, but that's not the point. The point is, that a society that is structured to exploit the vast majority of its population for the sake of the few is doomed to fail. The Founders knew this. They tried to strike a balance so that the majority of the population could live their lives as they saw fit, without undue "government interference" AKA theft.

There are unfortunately many people who have trouble doing the basics of what needs to be done to succeed in our "modern" society. This is where I fault the so-called "Christians," for Christ says to seek a just society, a place for everyone. A society which is too greedy or too ignorant to figure out a plan whereby all members of that society can do the work that they can and earn a measure of the rewards that the society can dispense is an unjust society. I'm not talking about gravely sick people or otherwise severely but temporarily injured - I'm talking about average and below intelligence.

stereotomy says

Having to learn how to invest outside of your wheelhouse just to counter the corruption of the money that you earn through your livelihood

I agree, it's set up to exploit people who don't have time to learn about investing or the aptitude for it.

Silver by weight (not dollars, ever!) would fix this.

Weight alone, weight of 0.9999 pure silver.

RWSGFY says

This is cute but they shouldʼve abolished SIT alltogether.

I agree. Taxing income reduces the incentive to work.

Sales should also never be taxed, because commerce is good.

Land value is the only appropriate object of taxation, where "land" includes radio spectrum and other natural resources no one created. Between that and import tariffs, we could easily fund as much government as we actually need to have. Which is much less government that we currently have.

In the last 25 years since the end of 1999, gold has risen 736.2%, silver 484.4%, the Dow 248.2% and the S&P500 263.4%.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/man-up-friday-december-13-2024-c

Local News-4 Jacksonville ran a valuable story yesterday headlined, “Florida CFO announces launch of study to see how gold, silver can be used as legal tender.”

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2024/12/12/florida-cfo-announces-launch-of-study-to-see-how-gold-silver-can-be-used-as-legal-tender/

Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis, announced an official Sunshine State study of an official state currency backed by precious metals not just hypothetically but “to determine the best way to get it done.” In addition to being useful as legal tender, to buy and sell goods and services in the Sunshine State, Patronis pointed out that gold and silver coins protect citizens against inflation and protect the state against a future central bank digital currency.

Concerns about proposals to issue legal coinage include precious metal price volatility, the inconvenience of safely storing them, how sale transactions could be handled elegantly and efficiently without requiring haggling over the set price, and the lurking risk of greedy Leprechauns.

Texas, is also pursuing an independent, gold-backed state digital currency, and is moving forward with its plan, which has been in the works since 2015. Making the gold-backed currency digital, if you can make it work, would resolve all the concerns over physical metal coins. Headline from the Jerusalem Post, two weeks ago:

Texas Pushes Forward with 100% Gold-Backed Transactional Currency Legislation
Texas unveils bold plan: Gold-backed digital currency. Lawmakers propose state-wide
digital coins fully redeemable in precious metals, offering alternative to traditional currency.

OK, but the digital currency should come with a HUGE warning: "Not money, only a debt, may default at any time."

Patrick says

Texas Pushes Forward with 100% Gold-Backed Transactional Currency Legislation
Texas unveils bold plan: Gold-backed digital currency. Lawmakers propose state-wide
digital coins fully redeemable in precious metals, offering alternative to traditional currency.

Which will be overruled by SCOTUS.

States can only make gold and silver legal tender, not derivatives thereof. Nor can they coin money.

"No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility."

OK, I'm fine with only gold and silver as money, as long as it is by weight of pure metal alone and not in bullshit units which can be debased.

The Constitution is nice and clear about this.

And no paper for wages and small contracts. Metal only. MAYBE a ticket to metal in a storehouse with no charges (storage charges paid by the paper giver, not receiver), not a bank, but 100% reserves.

Otherwise the big boys hoard the metal and give everybody paper to a bank, which loans out 80-90% of the metal and only has a bit actually in house.

Also, foreign holders CANT get the metal, except a receipt for paper kept at a US storehouse. They can only get paper. GREAT way to balance the trade deficit; they can only spend US Metal in the USA.

Then, foreigners can only own US real estate by buying cash in metal, and bonding the purchase price equivalent in metal stored in the USA. Including foreign companies.

And finally, residential real estate income is taxed at short-term capital gains; unless the rent is paid in one lump sum over a year or more.

The Fed is replaced by the USPS Bank, which is the only entity issuing FHA loans. FHA and VA loans will be limited 25 years, dropping a year starting two years after the 25-year is imposed to 15.

If you can't pay it off in 15 years, you can't afford it. Or get a full private.bank loan. 15 year loans used to be the standard.

Make housing affordable again.

College loans are limited to STEM fields and capped at $20k year + CPI. and only available to the top 10% of students.

AmericanKulak says

If you can't pay it off in 15 years, you can't afford it.

Bingo! Car loans should be 20% down and two years max.

The first and greatest sin was permitting fractional reserve banking. That was the lie that seeded the great corruption that is overwhelming us today.

Banks pretend they have more money to lend (1000% more under 10% reserves) than they have. Eventually, everyone is pretending to own what is on credit, including the US gub'ment.

HeadSet says

Bingo! Car loans should be 20% down and two years max.

Yep.

I certainly don't remember 72-month loans back in the day.

stereotomy says

The first and greatest sin was permitting fractional reserve banking. That was the lie that seeded the great corruption that is overwhelming us today.

Banks pretend they have more money to lend (1000% more under 10% reserves) than they have. Eventually, everyone is pretending to own what is on credit, including the US gub'ment.

Right?

The late 19th century was a deflationary period. The price of almost everything went down over several decades.

It wasn't crazy a few decades ago for ordinary people that didn't have top 10% incomes to pay cash for a NEW car, or to pay tuition out of income.

AmericanKulak says

The price of almost everything went down over several decades.

Yes, as it should when productivity increases.

But around the 1970's, all increases in productivity resulted in more money for shareholders and less than nothing for the workers who were being more productive.

Patrick says

But around the 1970's, all increases in productivity resulted in more money for shareholders and less than nothing for the workers who were being more productive.

Be careful about that statistic. For example, a small farm could have bought a tractor and replaced several workers. The labor costs have gone down for the farmer due to fewer workers, but that tractor driver gets paid more than any of the former field hands.

AmericanKulak says

If you can't pay it off in 15 years, you can't afford it.

True. All attempts at increasing "affordability" by guaranteeing loans or extending them actually make housing (or education, or whatever) less affordable by increasing the price. Suppliers always increase the price to negate any such "affordability" program. This is why housing and education prices are insane.

Banks love it. More and longer loans to collect interest on.

The public gets fucked, but is generally so stupid that they just don't understand.

I was reading the history of mortgages, and the immediate postwar decades, the mortgage was 15 years.

By 40, most men had paid off their homeloan or were about to.

Also, we need to make Credit Cards fall under the law of the state where the grantee lives.

"But states rights". No problem here. We are just changing the standard from the State Law of creditor to State Law of the grantee. Don't like it? Then Dakota credit companies don't loan in states with usury laws.

I suspect keeping people on the plantation as share-croppers was a side-effect.

There's been so many innovations, like the Grid Nail. That innovation alone reduced materials and time costs at least 15% from the suburban home builds of the 1940s-50s while increasing roof strength and reducing the need for load bearing interior walls. Yet houses are more expensive?!