patrick.net

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-great-clarification/

I’m already liking 2024. Consequence is itching to return to the American scene. Somewhere around 2016, cause and effect got a divorce. After that, things just happened or unhappened with no further orders of effect, like some brute existence without purpose, meaning, or even awareness, except for the feeling of the lash on your back. ...

We are waking to the stupefying criminality of public life, to the immersive obvious bullshit of people in charge who don’t deserve your respect or compliance. How they got into these positions is only another feature of that totalistic criminality. What was hidden in plain sight will be revealed to those suffering mere hysterical blindness.

It was fitting that the last extravagant political act of ’23 was Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows chucking Mr. Trump off the ballot there because. . . she felt like it. To save our democracy, you understand. That might be the terminal absurdity of the derangement we are leaving behind, the signature for much that has gone down in this country the past three years: women on the verge of a nervous breakdown throwing the crockery of law around the room at Daddy.

All this accomplishes, of course, is to disgrace authority in general and to turn America into one big broken home, making us a population of frightened runaways clinging desperately to a few square feet of ground, alone under the freeway ramp in the rain. That is no way to live. The way to live is to make yourself useful to your fellow humans and to get paid for it, and to find some joy and meaning in that human fellowship based on fair, consensual transactions — a pretty simple formula that has been supplanted by the evil idea that life is nothing but a shakedown.

The election of 2024, whether it is actually allowed to happen or not, will probably commence the extinction of the DC blob. This entity has made itself malignantly inimical to the proper functioning of self-governing people, and everybody knows it. The blob will die of irrelevance and impotence as the “trust horizon” devolves downward and we are thrust back into the awesome task of reconstructing our local communities. There is so much to do.

I keep hearing figures in the public arena say they have a creepy feeling that something big is going to happen. Well, sure, something’s got to give. So much hyper-complexity has been heaped onto the apparatus of shakedown that just about nothing works in America anymore. The Internet is obviously a major part of that. We’ve allowed digital magic to invade every scrap of territory in our daily doings, to the degree that there is no longer enough for humans to do — but, alas, digital magic is only a pale simulacrum of real human magic. The virtual is not an adequate substitute for the authentic. Why do you think there are so many people barely alive in a haze of opiate drugs splayed on the sidewalks of San Francisco, the epicenter of Internet wealth and power?

The “something big” could well be the Web-down crisis that is nervously tweeted about. If it went on for more than couple of weeks, most everything we depend on would cease to work, from food supplies to clean water to communications to what has been lately operating as “money.” That would be a clarifying interlude for sure. Among the few things that would still work in the event of a massive attack on the Internet are human brains, human bodies, and firearms. That combo could be as much a recipe for order as for chaos. I believe in the fairly short term, most of us would opt for order. As far as I’m concerned, there’s already been enough chaos, just about every bit of it unnecessary.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 2024 is on. It’s the time many of us have been waiting for. We’re in it. Stay alert. Make the right choices. Exercise situational awareness. Get ready to walk with consequence. It’s here, and it’s not “queer.”

UkraineIsFucked says

Misc says

Do you think for an instant that Zelensky would win an election in the Ukraine against anyone promoting peace with Russia

What elections?

Elections are explicitly prohibited by law during wartime. So not likely.

Misc says

Do you think for an instant that Zelensky would win an election in the Ukraine against anyone promoting peace with Russia???

Zelensky WAS the candidate who won in 2019 on promoting peace with the USSR against an incumbent who was running on building up native defense industry (especially ramping up missile production) and further increasing military spending. The Kremlin cunts were pleased with his victory and cheered his opponent's loss. He started de-mining along the frontlines, pulling troops back, prohibited even responding to incoming fire, stopped all indigenous missile development and instead splurged on roads, parks and such. Dreamed about hosting fucking Olympic games, believe it or not. The idiot thought that if he demilitarized and projected weak image he'll be given Dumb Ass and Crimea back. Then another weak idiot came to power in the USA and Kremling Bellend & Co. smelled blood in the water and pounced. The rest is history.

Si vis pacem para bellum is the only formula that works.

Eric Holder says

Elections are explicitly prohibited by law during wartime. So not likely.

No. The Ukrainian constitution ALLOWS for the legislature to delay elections. It does not require it

That's all.

AmericanKulak says

richwicks says

Israel will take over the West bank in time, then probably Gaza then expand into Syria. That's been the 70 year course. Who cares about what is morally right or wrong? The US and Israel nor the world at large don't, not in the slightest. They might PRETEND to, but they don't. It's all virtue signalling nonsense.

Right, Israel unilaterally withdrawing from Gaza a decade ago and the total lack of free elections there is a sign Israel is planning to take over.

They are taking over Gaza now, or attempting to. I didn't expect them to make the attempt this soon though. I expected in within a decade or so from when I made that prediction.

I will bet 100,000 Palestinians are killed in this current conflict. That's 5% of the population. More than 1% of them are dead now. I expect 1/2 the deaths will be due to starvation.

Eric Holder says

richwicks says

It won't be long before the Ukraine war is forgotten, although I predict that will go on for at least 1/2 decade

What a juicy morsel for the predictions thread.

Hey @"Eric Holder" - did I win the giant teddy bear prize yet? My prediction wasn't too hard to make, it's been the same exact pattern for 20 years with the Neocunts running US foreign policy and destroying the nation as Americans are completely asleep at the wheel.

I know it's only 1 year and 10 months in, only 3 years and 2 months to go. Hardly any mention of Ukraine now in "news" - see for yourself.

https://www.nytimes.com/
https://www.foxnews.com/
https://www.cnn.com/
https://www.msnbc.com/

The US starts a war, it's all the rage in "news" for a bit, then it goes on for YEARS and people just forget there's even a war.
Happened with Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. Our "news" didn't even bother to report on our bombing of Yemen and Somalia.

And don't think the US isn't in this war directly either. Plenty of "advisors" there, you know, mercenaries, murderers for hire that have no loyalty to the nation and kill without cause other than a paycheck. Be all you can be..

Eric Holder says

He started de-mining along the frontlines, pulling troops back, prohibited even responding to incoming fire, stopped all indigenous missile development and instead splurged on roads, parks and such. Dreamed about hosting fucking Olympic games, believe it or not. The idiot thought that if he demilitarized and projected weak image he'll be given Dumb Ass and Crimea back. Then another weak idiot came to power in the USA and Kremling Bellend & Co. smelled blood in the water and pounced. The rest is history.

original link


THAT is why there is a war between Russia and Ukraine. Zelenskyy didn't stop bombing Eastern Ukraine so finally Russia got directly involved. You can claim that Russia would have gone into Ukraine even if the Minsk Accords WERE followed, but we'll never know, because Zelenskyy kept bombing Eastern Ukraine throughout.

https://notthebee.com/article/in-2015-snl-did-this-skit-about-how-trump-would-make-america-great-again-in-just-two-years-and-actually-they-accidentally-nailed-it

Before Trump became Orange Man Bad™ and Worse than Hitler™ the mainstream lefties in New York liked him.

In 2015, before they saw him as a real threat, he was on the late-night shows and even hosted SNL ... where he participated in this skit that accidentally foretold the future.

This. Is. Amazing.

The details of the skit are perfect. There's the silly Trump stuff about swimming pools at the White House and mirrored gold plating on the Washington Monument. But then there's the stuff that actually DID happen under Trump.

Some of the jokes are now sad, considering what they took from us.

Here are some of the prophecies:

Actor: Halfway through your first term and prosperity is at an all-time high. In two years you really made America great again ...

Trump: General how are we doing in Syria?

Actor: Well, ISIS is completely eliminated, sir. The country is at peace, all the refugees have returned. And they have great jobs as blackjack dealers at the Trump Hotel and Casino in Damascus ...

Trump: Madam Secretary, how is the situation in Russia?

Actor: Never better. After your face to face meeting Putin has withdrawn from Ukraine. Believe me, he does not want to be called a loser again. He cried for hours.

Trump: Well, I'm sorry. I just had to do that.

Trump: Jimmy, how's the economy?

Actor: Amazing sir! In the words of our new national anthem, it's 'YUGE!' After your tough negotiations with China, you are KILLING them on trade. They're now borrowing money from us. I have no idea how you did it, sir!

Trump: Well you know what, I don't have to get specific. With me, it just works. It's just magic. It's always been that way my whole life.

LOOK WHAT THEY TOOK FROM US!

LOOK AT IT!
This sketch aged amazingly. It went from funny, to Simpsons-level prophecy, to tragedy in the span of 9 years.

Actor: Mr. President, we have a problem! It's the American people, sir! They're just sick of winning! They're winning so much, it's just too great sir.

Trump: Look, I know how they feel, it's exhausting. But really, that is the price you have to pay. Winning is tough. It's not that easy.

[Turns towards audience]

If you think that's how it's going to be when I'm president, you're wrong. It's going to be EVEN BETTER! I said to the writer's of this sketch, 'Keep it modest, okay? It's better to start with low expectations. That way you have nowhere to go but up!'

They were right!

The economy grew, we were beating China, Russia wasn't a problem, the Middle East was peaceful, and illegal immigration dropped to record lows.

It was, for three years, SO MUCH better than anyone imagined.

And then it was taken from us!

Ceffer says

I'll take my Q medium rare.

Will watch this one.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Eric Holder says

Elections are explicitly prohibited by law during wartime. So not likely.

No. The Ukrainian constitution ALLOWS for the legislature to delay elections. It does not require it

That's all.

Bullshit. The law says basically "no elections during martial law times" which is what they have because of war.

THE LAW OF UKRAINE

About the legal regime of martial law
(Vodomosti Verkhovna Rada (VVR), 2015, No. 28, Article 250)

Article 19. Guarantees of legality in the conditions of martial law
1. In the conditions of martial law, the following are prohibited:
changing the Constitution of Ukraine;
amendment of the Constitution of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea;
conducting elections for the President of Ukraine, as well as elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and local self-government bodies;
conducting all-Ukrainian and local referenda;
conducting strikes, mass meetings and actions.

https://zakon-rada-gov-ua.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true#Text

Open and shut.

RWSGFY says

1. In the conditions of martial law, the following are prohibited:
changing the Constitution of Ukraine;
amendment of the Constitution of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea;
conducting elections for the President of Ukraine

Was this by any chance added in 2014 or 2019? If so, that would be like the CDC changing the definition of a vaccine so that the new definition can include the Covid shot.

Eric Holder says

Elections are explicitly prohibited by law during wartime. So not likely.

Didn't Zelensky make that law?

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

1. In the conditions of martial law, the following are prohibited:
changing the Constitution of Ukraine;
amendment of the Constitution of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea;
conducting elections for the President of Ukraine

Was this by any chance added in 2014 or 2019?

No. The dates of all changes are visible on the website.

PS. Thanks to goolag translate we can now read all kinds of stuff we weren't able 20 years ago. So the fucking thing is useful for something after all.

Never happened.

RWSGFY says

I wonder how many people are still sitting in all cash because of "professional" predictions like that...

Onvacation says

Ukraine has changed hands many times. What business is it of the USA?

US took their nukes, strategic bombers, cruise missiles, ICBMs and stockpiles of enriched Plutonium and Uranium in exchange for assurances of sovereignty and territorial integrity back in 1994. We wanted that nuclear non-proliferation and this is the price we're paying for it. I can't believe you don't know that. Are you playing richwicks here? That guy is still looking for the Nord Stream pipeline in the Black Sea.... Don't be like richwicks. It's unbecoming.

Back to predictions. Do you have any to make?

Onvacation says

Eric Holder says

Elections are explicitly prohibited by law during wartime. So not likely.

Didn't Zelensky make that law?

No. It was made well before his time. And, like here, there presidents don't make laws - it's the job of the parliament.

PS. Their constitution has many such failsafes to prevent state being subverted to the external threat. One of them is the mechanism of legally changing the borders, which, in a nutshell, makes any territoriall concessions under the threat of force legally impossible.

richwicks says

Hey "Eric Holder" - did I win the giant teddy bear prize yet?

Not even close. Nothing is fogotten. The fact that people still trying to bring Ukraine into any thread is the best proof.

Eric Holder says

PS. The idea for this thread was to keep in clean with predictions and links to predictions only. Otherwise it will drown in the usual noise.

And it went off-rails of course. Anyone predicted that?

Bd6r says

I thought you have been on Patnet for a while...what is the chance of a clean thread.

"Contra spem spero"

Patrick says

Hunter Biden will die in unclear circumstances when the FBI gets rid of him to protect themselves.

Found guilty on 3 criminal charges but still alive an kicking.

RWSGFY says

Here a "as good as Cuntsler (who?) guy" predicts European starving and freezing to death this winter (2022-2023): https://patrick.net/post/1345718/2022-06-17-one-of-kunstler-s-best?start=6#comment-1877701

Have I mocked mercilessly this one? Even if I did, it's worth doing again.

1337irr says

AMRS to $20 in 24 months.

Misc says

California's sales tax rate goes to 15% or higher in 2023.

Nope.

RWSGFY says

Nukes! Nukes!

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=1882142

Not only Pukin is now absorbing strikes on the "new territories" he's taking it up the ass inside USSR proper with refineries, stragic airfields, early warning radars and MIC factories going up in smoke.

Marking this one busted.

apex says

Eric Holder says

Here I will collect bold predictions so we can see what came true and what didn't.

I predict that this thread is a trap, and Eric Holder will mock you later and damage
your credibility when your predictions don't turn out to be 100% true.

Please come to the booth to collect your giant teddy bear.

Another one to watch:

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/hunter-biden-found-guilty-on-three-federal-gun-charges/

He'll serve about 5 months at Club Fed, then daddy will pardon him right after the election.

I predict Hunter will serve NO jail time, as he is a "first time and non-violent offender."

HeadSet says

I predict Hunter will serve NO jail time, as he is a "first time and non-violent offender."

I predict they will give Hunter a few months jail time so they can justify giving Trump jail time on the New York case.

Eric Holder says

I wonder how many people are still sitting in all cash because of "professional" predictions like that...

What do you call the current state of things? I call it fucked, and if you started stocking up on silver and gold two years ago, you'd be doing very well right now...

personal

I predict that Trump will be legitimately elected for a third time, but this time he will distinctly betray his supporters and continue the Uniparty/corporate corruption of DC as usual, in particular outsourcing to China, flooding the US with cheap Latin American labor, and cooperating with the defense industry to start new wars to make money selling weapons at taxpayer expense. And continuing to push deadly and ineffective injections for Pfizer profits.

He already seems to be making deals and getting former enemies on his side. I think it's very likely that he's selling out right now with these deals in exchange for support and protection.

Trump's rise was entirely due to the Democrats' betraying their working class base, which left a huge political opening for Trump to step into. But now he will become part of the problem because it's safe and profitable for him.

I hope I'm wrong.

Patrick says

He already seems to be making deals and getting former enemies on his side.

Which former enemies?

I say that the polls taken after Biden's debate disaster from here on out will show Biden catering.

Catering. Defined as double digit drops.

Oh, there will be polls that also don't show it. Those will be the ones that are BS polls. Easy to identify.

NuttBoxer says

Eric Holder says

I wonder how many people are still sitting in all cash because of "professional" predictions like that...

What do you call the current state of things? I call it fucked, and if you started stocking up on silver and gold two years ago, you'd be doing very well right now...

Compared to what? Cash? Sure. Stonks? Don't think so. Not to mention the murderous taxation of gold and silver.

RWSGFY says

Compared to what? Cash? Sure. Stonks? Don't think so. Not to mention the murderous taxation of gold and silver.

We did this already, showed you specific data proving they outperformed your tech go-to's over the past 10 years. Over the past two, wouldn't even be close. But you already know this...

There are no taxes on gold and silver in several states now, and like all taxes, it depends on you self-reporting. I'd imagine people who hold physical and rightly consider them to be the only real money don't do that very often. But even if they do, I don't believe the capital gains tax differs between stocks and gold silver.

Prediction: There isn't going to be another presidential debate between now and Election Day.

Their MIGHT be a VP debate, tho.

HeadSet says

Patrick says

He already seems to be making deals and getting former enemies on his side.

Which former enemies?

Bill Barr comes to mind.

NuttBoxer says

I don't believe the capital gains tax differs between stocks and gold silver.

And this is where you are berry, berry wrong.

Physical gold and silver investments are also subject to capital gains tax.
The IRS classifies gold and silver as collectibles.
Here’s how it works:
-Long-term capital gains on gold and silver are taxed at a maximum rate of 28%.
-If you hold gold or silver for less than a year, any gains are taxed as ordinary income, which can be higher than the long-term capital gains rate.
-The cost basis includes the purchase price plus associated costs (e.g., dealer premiums, storage fees), reducing the taxable gain upon sale.
-Reporting requirements involve filing on Schedule D of Form 10401.

PS. The advice to get around taxation by breaking the law was hilarious. I hope you don't practice what you preach for the sake of your young children and integrity of your own anus. Refer to AFs rants for more details on the joys of Federal penetentiary.

You don't understand investments that aren't in paper. If you aren't holding your silver and gold, you're likely getting ripped off. So throw out storage fees, and anyone knowing how much you have. But I guess you self-report to the local police every time you go over the speed limit, so you definitely disclose 100% honestly your finances.

Please nigger, don't shovel that shit here...

Unlike you I don't theorize, I live what I believe. Have for over 10 years...

Now let's put some reality to your theorizing(something you're very bad at):

"...so here’s some scorekeeping, from 29 December 2023 through today. Remember that at the periods' ends, hedge fund, investment advisors, etc., look and their scores and add or drop investments, so the score does matter.

S&P500, +14.5%

Dow Industrials, +3.8%

S&P500 in gold, +1.4%

Dow in gold, -8.0%

Dow in Silver, -15.35%

Gold, +12.9%

Silver, 22.6%

Gold/silver ratio, -7.9%

And here’s the scorecard from 30 December 1999, just for fun:

S&P500, +272.9%

Dow Industrials, + 241.6%

S&P500 in gold, -53.6%

Dow in gold, -57.5%

Dow in silver, -36.3%

Gold, +703.8%

Silver, +436.2%

Gold/silver ratio, +49.9%"

- Sanders