patrick.net

socal2 says

I really fail to see any upside for Russia.

They are truly a low IQ country, that's all.

Russia already doesn't have enough NCO's and officers. How are they going to manage another 300,000+ ???

They are already at the point of sending people into combat without weapons and just asking them to pick up a rifle

Putin now wants anyone with call of duty experience to report for draft immediately.

Booger says

Russia already doesn't have enough NCO's and officers. How are they going to manage another 300,000+ ???

I see most of the 300,000 just boots on the ground to act as police force within regions that they already control. Its to solidify their control such as the region north of Crimea, as well as the water supply. I suspect they are trying displace anyone within those regions who do not toe the line as far as Kremlin takeover, and they'll bring in Russians to populate these areas following Stalin's playbook.

They may reinforce the border of this region with regular troops. I do not know if they will try to move further west within the next 12 months, but they may try to recover from this and eventually move toward Kiev.

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Those 300, or more, extra troops aren't going to do much, if anything except strain Russia's crappy supply lines. Once Ukraine has F-16's and Abrams Tanks and more HIMARS (like 100), what do you think is going to happen? We are talking about early 2023 here.

If 100 HIMRS sounds like a lot, well Poland wants 500, and the US probably has a lot more than that.

RWSGFY says

People still think that there is an "overwhelming force" hidden somewhere which hasn't been used yet?

Russia is not America in 1940. But it has nukes and as will be shown in the coming months, it can field a large Army if it has the will. In that regard Russia is Iike a sleeping giant. Probably stronger today than it was before world war 2. NATO is giving it little choice but to defend its territory, and let’s not pretend that Ukraine isn’t part of Russian territory.

PeopleUnited says

let’s not pretend that Ukraine isn’t part of Russian territory

The only pretending is you disingenuously thinking that towns such as in central Ukraine like Uman want to be under the thumb of the Kremlin.

I see Putin using nuclear weapons as extortion as he psychotically considers any attack on Russian soldiers invading Ukraine such as south of Kiev as an attack on Russian land and people.

Next he'll invade Alaska and threaten to use nuclear weapons if the attack is repealed or resisted.

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ad says

The only pretending is you disingenuously thinking that towns such as in central Ukraine like Uman want to be under the thumb of the Kremlin.

Did Ukraine build those nuclear power plants or was that the Soviet Union under direction of the Kremlin? Like it or not USSR created Ukraine’s infrastructure. Thus, the Kremlin sees it as theirs. Nobody has to like it. But they better realize it because that is how the Kremlin feels. They feel as if they lost a piece of their country. They want it back.

PeopleUnited says

They feel as if they lost a piece of their country.

Russia is famous for being a shitty place to live, and treating it's people and neighbors poorly. Then they wonder why everyone hates them, and even most Russians want to leave the country.

Those Russians fleeing the draft and going to places like Georgia (the country) and Serbia is the same as Californians moving to Texas.

Booger says

They are already at the point of sending people into combat without weapons and just asking them to pick up a rifle

Ukraine has been releasing prisoners since June to go to war.

At best, Ukraine will be destroyed, and Eastern Ukraine will be part of Russia and Ukraine will not be a landlocked country. That's the MOST they can hope for at this point. Europe will go through energy starvation this winter, how the population reacts to that, and their many migrants react to it, will be the wild card. I expect serious riots to break out in France. They largely avoided World War II, I don't think that population has been pacified.

Booger says

Once Ukraine has F-16's and Abrams Tanks and more HIMARS (like 100), what do you think is going to happen? We are talking about early 2023 here.

Nothing.

It will take months to train troops on it, the MIC builds garbage to make money, not weapons. Anything that is actually useful and works, Russia will soon have in their hands reverse engineering.

Booger says

PeopleUnited says

They feel as if they lost a piece of their country.

Russia is famous for being a shitty place to live, and treating it's people and neighbors poorly. Then they wonder why everyone hates them, and even most Russians want to leave the country.

China is probably worse. But sure, everyone hates Russia. They are kind of like Ted Cruz.

I like Ted Cruz. He's amusing and makes a lot of good points.

Putin is now testing how much the Russians will tolerate; throwing the 300,000 unwilling conscripts along a 1000 kilometer front won’t accomplish much, a few hundred thousand more might be actually useful.
But, it’s proving the lie that the invasion and war is a “special operation”; any doubt about it is now gone.

Putin rolled the dice and lost; he’s rolling again because he knows Russian history.
He’s now thinking about self preservation, not the Russian people who will be worse off for decades.
Men of drafting age are trying to escape Russia, while others are getting passed out drunk before being loaded onto buses to go to military bases and later become cannon fodder.

Russia is incapable of gaining air superiority over Ukraine, so it cannot win.
Putin is able to terrorize Ukraine by sending cruise missiles to hit train stations, shopping malls, etc. but he can’t stop the precision artillery and missiles Ukraine is getting from the West.
Inexpensive drones can drop grenades on the Russians, while more capable drones can shoot missiles at them.

clambo says

Putin rolled the dice and lost; he’s rolling again because he knows Russian history.

If he lost then why does Ukraine keep whining like a bitch?
Russia is in control of every town he rolled through, they have been held and the trek has gotten more difficult. But Ukraine certainly isn't in the position to expel Russia from their country. A few Ukraine cities just had a vote last week, to join Russia. That only happened because Russia is dominating those towns, and the vote would legitimize it.

But to be honest with ourselves, Ukraine didn't jump up and say "The Fuck You ARE!?"

So there's news reports then there's the reality of things. I look for the reality of things, for they are the better Walter Concrite on things.

The special operation is now into the next phase, referendums asking residents if they want to join the Russian Federation. It would seem the Kremlin is getting what they wanted. I’m sure they would agree with this assessment. And they are making sure to defend their victory by calling up reserves fortify their position.

So as an American why should my government or countrymen have anything to do with this regional conflict? It would seem I have nothing to lose by avoiding any involvement at all, and everything to gain by keeping myself and my country neutral in the matter.

If Canada annexed Maine, would Ukraine send us money, weapons and mercenaries to try to take it back? No that is absurd. Just as absurd as us doing it for Ukraine. No the right solution is to negotiate peace with Canada in that hypothetical, and in this real world scenario the right solution is the same. The only involvement the west should have in this regional dispute is to negotiate peace.

https://youtu.be/5xhkfjhPSWs

Hitler is informed Putin announces partial mobilisation and threatens nuclear retaliation

A boy scout in my town has more equipment than a a russian conscript. I'm not even joking.

cisTits says

PeopleUnited says

The special operation is now into the next phase, referendums asking residents if they want to join the Russian Federation

And the moment these referendums pass, Putin will declare these parts to be Russian territory. That means any Uke Nazi troops in there will constitute an attack on Russia proper.

Pop goes the tac-nukes!

Bookmarked in the predictions thread.

RWSGFY says

thats a troop surge, we did same in afghanistan. world is a fucked up place

It's almost the end of winter. Any update on the offensive? Is it habbening right now?

PeopleUnited says

So as an American why should my government or countrymen have anything to do with this regional conflict?

Same reason our government and countrymen were involved with Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and probably many more - Americans really don't care, and those that do, they aren't going to do anything about it.

All the government has to say, and HAS said, for 20 years "that if you're not with us, you're with the TERRORISTS, terrorist!!!" and people cower in fear.

If you're upset Antifa and BLM ran riot for 9 months, you're a terrorist. If you think the election was stolen in 2020 and 2022, you're a terrorist. You're a terrorist if you complain about LGBTQ crap in elementary schools. You're a terrorist if you don't think that children should transgender at 5. You're a terrorist if this, and that, and blah blah blah. If you don't get along with whatever, and I mean whatever this criminal, psychopathic deep state does, you're a "terrorist".

That shuts up 90% of people who even recognize there's something wrong. People are pussies.

cisTits says

And the moment these referendums pass, Putin will declare these parts to be Russian territory. That means any Uke Nazi troops in there will constitute an attack on Russia proper.

Crimea has already been bombed.

jykiodfgr says

Right when the EU runs out of energy for life.

"Funds for the 300,000 contract soldiers will be provided by the extra revenue Russia got thanks to western sanctions"

jykiodfgr says

North Korea negotiating to provide 100,000 troops to gain experience in the Ukraines for the upcoming South Korean campaign?

This is gotta be the worst prediction thread about Ukraine war I have seen on Patnet, and it is saying a lot.

Bd6r says

This is gotta be the worst prediction thread about Ukraine war I have seen on Patnet, and it is saying a lot.

War will go on for AT LEAST 4 more years.

There's predictions that it will end this summer, I say BULLSHIT.

War itself might end, but it will end up like North and South Korea, where there's no settlement and constant provocations. I think that's what the US is aiming for, Cold War II.

richwicks says

War itself might end, but it will end up like North and South Korea, where there's no settlement and constant provocations. I think that's what the US is aiming for, Cold War II.

Preferrably with outbursts of expensive HIMARS missile exchanges for maximum costplus contracts.

Still waiting for the alleged offensive.

Now the rumor is that Ukraine will try to capture the huge stockpile of Soviet Era ammo on Transnistria.

Booger says

Now the rumor is that Ukraine will try to capture the huge stockpile of Soviet Era ammo on Transnistria.

Would ammunition that is 30 years old even work at this point? I don't think a bullet that old is likely to work. They do have a shelf life.

If Russian T-72 tanks can run, I'd put money that 30 year old ammo will work.

Misc says

If Russian T-72 tanks can run, I'd put money that 30 year old ammo will work.

Well, you can store a tank in an argon atmosphere, or I think even nitrogen, to prevent rust.

I think the problem with ammo is that the propellants break down over time. The US is sending junk to Ukraine knowing that some of it won't work. I hate this war. I don't think the US has ANY expectation that Ukraine can win, and they're just using Ukraine as a way to sell garbage to Ukraine (by "loaning" money to Ukraine) which they will recover by enslaving Ukraine in unpayable debt - at least what is left of Ukraine. Not that they care if Ukraine pays the US back or not, the US taxpayer will otherwise.

richwicks says

Would ammunition that is 30 years old even work at this point?

I didn't click the link below but I knew it was true.

https://lundestudio.com/ › how-long-does-ammo-last
How Long Does Ammo Last? Your 2022 Full Guide - Lunde Studio
Aug 1, 2021 Ammo can have a minimum of 10 years and may last indefinitely, but several factors affect its overall shelf life. These include the ammunition storage conditions and the manufacturing practices present. Quality ammunition that is stored correctly in your gun cabinet may work even after a hundred years.

Just keep your powder dry and your great grand kids can fire off your rounds.

Onvacation says

Just keep your powder dry and your great grand kids can fire off your rounds.

I think the operative word there is "may work"...

The Javelin missiles (? I think that's what they were, some missile anyhow) that US sent over I HEARD were sometimes (oftentimes?) misfiring because they were all beyond their due date. Who knows though. During war, there's just too much propaganda and there's no way to confirm such a claim or disprove it, unless you were there.

Still waiting for that massage Russian offensive that was supposed to happen today.

Booger says

Still waiting for that massage Russian offensive that was supposed to happen today.

The Russians don't announce what they are going to do ahead of time. Ukraine does because they are only fighting a public relations war. They know the ground war is lost.

The war is going to go on for years.

richwicks says

They know the ground war is lost.

The war is going to go on for years.

The war is "lost", but it will also go on for years?

What has Russia "won" in the past year other than needless death and destruction?

https://youtu.be/RyFWKgdZFSE

Hitler reacts to the first year of war in Ukraine..

socal2 says

What has Russia "won" in the past year other than needless death and destruction?

Lost prestige. NATO expansion.

Booger says

Still waiting for that massage Russian offensive that was supposed to happen today.

Are you talking about meeting the Slav ladies at the local parlor?

Or spell check fucked up.