patrick.net

Around here, there is a shortage of home listed because people do not want to sell their homes. One major reason is this example:

Current home, $1,000,000 mortgage at 2% has a monthly payment of $3,696.
Downsize home, $750,000 mortgage at 7% has a monthly payment of $4,990.

Moving to a smaller home at today's interest rates actually can increase the monthly nut and that is after costs like realtor commission and loan origination fees.

https://lamag.com/real-estate/kanye-wests-mansion-loses-18-million-in-value

Kanye West's Mansion Loses $18 Million in Value

zzyzzx says

https://lamag.com/real-estate/kanye-wests-mansion-loses-18-million-in-value

Kanye West's Mansion Loses $18 Million in Value

This kind of stuff means nothing. These high-end mansions are not moving in sync with the rest of the market because these brain dead celebrity bimbos tend to overpay when they want something now-now-NOW!

HeadSet says

Around here, there is a shortage of home listed because people do not want to sell their homes. One major reason is this example:

Current home, $1,000,000 mortgage at 2% has a monthly payment of $3,696.
Downsize home, $750,000 mortgage at 7% has a monthly payment of $4,990.

Moving to a smaller home at today's interest rates actually can increase the monthly nut and that is after costs like realtor commission and loan origination fees.

At 7%, the move down house would have to have a $375,000 mortgage if the wanted to reduce their monthly payment by $1,300 instead of increase their monthly payment by $1,300. Wow, just wow.

zzyzzx says

https://lamag.com/real-estate/kanye-wests-mansion-loses-18-million-in-value

Kanye West's Mansion Loses $18 Million in Value

I still have no idea how he became a billionaire. Through tennis shoes?
Edit: yep, just looked it up...tennis shoes mostly. Yeezy.

Looking to move to a smaller place in Yuma and put the money we'll save towards travel and savings. The place we're currently in is a bit of a dream home, but we don't need so much space, and it's not very efficient when it comes to AC. Plus we don't use the pool that often, or have people over much. Even with being picky on location(won't move within two miles of any fields due to pesticide drift), there are a lot of options. The move will save us somewhere between $300 - $600 monthly.

Still wouldn't even think about buying. Renting is WAY cheaper...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/the-typical-newly-built-house-in-the-us-is-shrinking.html

The typical new home in the U.S. is shrinking

FL Inventory up 70% YoY.

Eric Holder says

This kind of stuff means nothing. These high-end mansions are not moving in sync with the rest of the market because these brain dead celebrity bimbos tend to overpay when they want something now-now-NOW!

YEP

The median price was skewed by a surge in sales of higher-end homes.
According to the NAR, despite the overall decline in sales, the high end was hot:

Sales of homes of over $1,000,000: +22.6% YoY
Sales of homes of $750,000 to $1,000,000: +12.9% YoY
Sales of homes of $500,000 to 750,000: +6.9%
Sales of homes $250,000 to 500,000: +1.0%
Everything below fell.
So the mix of homes that sold changed toward the higher end, with relatively fewer sales in the mid-range to lower-end homes.

The median price is the price in the middle. And this shift in mix of what sells toward the higher end pushes up the middle of the prices that sold, and thereby the median price. This is an infamous shortcoming of the median price. We discussed the mechanics, including a chart, of how median home prices are skewed by changes in the mix here.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/21/home-sales-sag-further-hit-by-mortgage-rates-price-reductions-active-listings-surge-median-price-skewed-higher-by-surge-in-high-end-sales/

zzyzzx says

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/the-typical-newly-built-house-in-the-us-is-shrinking.html

The typical new home in the U.S. is shrinking

Nooooooooo!

Absolutely true in my area.



It's really not "246 days", that's when Focus Homes listed the model which is at multiple lots. Same School District and unlike Commiefornia you can send you kid to one of a dozen charter schools, there's a Classical Academy in the area. You're guaranteed the next seat if they're overcapacity and high demand charter schools get more money to hire more staff to host more students. Florida also allows flexibility for taking your kid to a school more convenient to work or equidistant to co-parenting.

There's an available model that is $256k including the plot.

Focus homes is offering an intro rate of 5-6.5% with a 20% downpayment

Is homeloaner offering that? Or will the buyer have to get an 8% from the bank?

AmericanKulak says

Absolutely true in my area.



It's really not "246 days", that's when Focus Homes listed the model which is at multiple lots. Same School District and unlike Commiefornia you can send you kid to one of a dozen charter schools, there's a Classical Academy in the area. You're guaranteed the next seat if they're overcapacity and high demand charter schools get more money to hire more staff to host more students. Florida also allows flexibility for taking your kid to a school more convenient to work or equidistant to co-parenting.

There's an available model that is $256k including the plot.

Focus homes is offering an intro rate of 5-6.5% with a 20% downpayment

Is homeloaner offering that? Or will the buyer have to get an 8% from the bank?

New is a no-brainer in this case.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/02/manhattan-is-buyers-market-as-real-estate-prices-fall-inventory-rises-.html

Manhattan is now a ‘buyer’s market’ as real estate prices fall and inventory rises

The price declines are a result of rising inventory of apartments for sale, which are also taking longer to sell. There are now more than 8,000 apartments for sale in Manhattan, which is higher than the 10-year average of about 7,000, according to Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and research firm.

Manhattan now has a 9.8 month supply of apartments for sale, which means it would take 9.8 months to sell all of the apartments on the market without any new listings, according to Brown Harris Stevens. “Any number over 6 months tells us there is too much supply and we are in a buyer’s market,” according to the Brown Harris Stevens report.

zzyzzx says

Manhattan is now a ‘buyer’s market’ as real estate prices fall and inventory rises

Noooooooo!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/01/business/adjustable-rate-mortgages-higher-payments/index.html

Thousands of homeowners are about to get slammed with higher monthly payments

Last year, when Jennifer Hernandez received notice that the mortgage payments on her Houston home would jump about $2,000 per month, she was stunned.

Hernandez refinanced her home loan in 2016 using an adjustable-rate mortgage loan, which has a low introductory rate for a fixed initial period.

Hernandez, who is herself a loan officer, had misremembered the terms of her $1.1 million loan: rather than a 10/1 ARM, which has a fixed rate for the first ten years and resets every year after that, Hernandez had taken out a 7/1 loan.

“I just got caught blindsided,” she said. “Life gets in the way, and you get busy. I’ve been slammed with kids and work for the last seven years.”

Last October, Hernandez’s mortgage rate jumped by 2% to 5.125%, the maximum allowed in the first adjustment year, according to her loan terms.

Most ARM loans come with an interest rate cap to prevent costs from spiraling out of control. Hernandez said her ARM is capped at 8.125%, five percentage points above her initial fixed rate.

Interest rates can be unpredictable. Hernandez said she saved money in the initial seven years of her loan, but if she could have a do-over, she likely would not have chosen an adjustable-rate mortgage in 2016.

As much as we love our current place, decided to move as we'd rather spend the money on trips. Will go down to the same rent we payed when we moved back to California over four years ago. But instead of a 2 bedroom apartment, will be living in a 3/2 1500 sqft house. For everyone who says rents have to go up, and you can't save money renting, read that last part again.

zzyzzx says

The typical new home in the U.S. is shrinking

Most people don't need more than a 3/2.5. 2k sq. ft is about all people need in most situations, especially with a basement in our area. We're going 4/4.5, 2,400 sq. ft. Last home we're doing with kids. Anything else will be a condo where I don't have to do shit after 60-65. Probably a 2/2 in a fun/warm area. Bounce back in the summer/hurricane season to IL.

I need a change of season or location. California is great, but I couldn't deal with a lot of stuff there. Politics being a biggie, taxes, homelessness, gays, etc. I just want to be 1-2 hours from a major airport is all.

NuttBoxer says

For everyone who says rents have to go up, and you can't save money renting, read that last part again.

There is the New York Times Rent Vs Buy calculator. I remember Patrick going back to around 2007 saying his family and him were going to continue to rent.

I wonder when Patrick will buy as I recall he said he was waiting for his public school teacher wife to retire and they may move from California.

When Patrick buys then its a great time to buy (unless he won the lottery or inherited a lot of money, and it does not matter what price he pays for a home).

A lot of what I learned from Patrick helped as we bought a home in summer 2016 at a very good price, and at a 3% mortgage rate. Glad we had the patience which I attribute to following Patrick since around his interview on 20/20.

.

WookieMan says

Anything else will be a condo where I don't have to do shit after 60-65. Probably a 2/2 in a fun/warm area. Bounce back in the summer/hurricane season to IL.

You all sound like a great buyer for Island Reserve in Panama City Beach. I think it is about 15 hours driving time to Chicago from there. It will be frigid in March in Chicago and it will be low to mid 70s in Panama City Beach, warm enough for beach weather.

Almost 9 months beach weather in Panama City Beach compared to 10.5 months in South Florida.

.

zzyzzx says

Last October, Hernandez’s mortgage rate jumped by 2% to 5.125%, the maximum allowed in the first adjustment year

Sounds like year 2008, but at least in 2008 it was 2% ARM verses 5% Fixed — tough to say no to that 3 point difference. Getting a 2% verses 3% fixed in 2016 doesn't make much sense. Lock in 3% forever.

SunnyvaleCA says

Sounds like year 2008, but at least in 2008 it was 2% ARM verses 5% Fixed — tough to say no to that 3 point difference. Getting a 2% verses 3% fixed in 2016 doesn't make much sense. Lock in 3% forever.

We locked in a 3% fixed rate for a Veteran Affairs 30 year mortgage in summer 2016, and yes we were tempted by the rates offered in Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs).

.

WookieMan says

Most people don't need more than a 3/2.5. 2k sq. ft is about all people need in most situations, especially with a basement in our area. We're going 4/4.5, 2,400 sq. ft. Last home we're doing with kids. Anything else will be a condo where I don't have to do shit after 60-65. Probably a 2/2 in a fun/warm area. Bounce back in the summer/hurricane season to IL.

True, but in places like Florida, etc, that don't have basements or attics, a 2000 sq ft house probably doesn't work since they have literally NO storage space.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

Most people don't need more than a 3/2.5. 2k sq. ft is about all people need in most situations, especially with a basement in our area. We're going 4/4.5, 2,400 sq. ft. Last home we're doing with kids. Anything else will be a condo where I don't have to do shit after 60-65. Probably a 2/2 in a fun/warm area. Bounce back in the summer/hurricane season to IL.

True, but in places like Florida, etc, that don't have basements or attics, a 2000 sq ft house probably doesn't work since they have literally NO storage space.

It all depends on how many clothes the wife has

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/04/whats-the-cost-of-mortgage-rate-buydowns-and-other-incentives-to-homebuilders-lennar-discloses-the-numbers/

What’s the Cost of Mortgage-Rate Buydowns and Other Incentives to Homebuilders? Lennar Discloses the Numbers

In the first half of 2024, the average incentive costs, including the costs of mortgage-rate buydowns, rose to $47,100 per house sold, or to 10.1% of the average sales price, up from 9.2% a year ago.

The costs of those incentives vary by market. In Texas, they reached 16.9% or $51,600 per house. In “Other” regions, which include Florida, they amounted to 13.4%, or $81,700 per house

And that is why newly built homes are outselling used homes. Duh.

Not a sustainable practice though, one would think.

.

Apartment owners are reported to be next as far as real estate defaulting. I noticed rents in Panama City Beach have held steady for the last 2 to 3 years essentially. A 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome within 2 miles of the beach still rents between $2000 and $2200, the same it was back in 2021.

If rent goes down (or does not rise much each year) for these townhomes, then the landlord investors are willing to offer a lower price to buy these townhomes.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/apartments-could-next-real-estate-200023675.html

.
"That could be a big problem for investors like Tides Equities, a real estate investment firm based in Los Angeles that bet big on multifamily properties in the Sun Belt. Just a few years ago, Tides Equities owned about $2 billion worth of apartment buildings. That figure quickly grew to $6.5 billion. Now, as rents and prices for those apartments fall, the firm is struggling to make loan payments and cover operating expenses, according to CRED iQ.

Executives at Tides Equities did not respond to requests for comment.

All that said, apartment buildings are likely to be on stronger financial footing than offices, for instance. That’s because multifamily units can be financed by lending from the government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which Congress created to make housing more affordable."

in idaho out here, a lot of people moved in which spiked sales a lot. it keeps going. however interesting enough flippers see losses. 4 different guys who came here tried flipping, 3 lost money and one made very little. no one buys flips here, mainly new construction.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

I'm sorry I didn't invest more into Idaho. Its such a landlord friendly state. I miss the Sawtooths so much

Back to 2015 inventory levels in Orlando, Tampa.

RedStar says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

I'm sorry I didn't invest more into Idaho. Its such a landlord friendly state. I miss the Sawtooths so much

it’s pricey here, but as landlord there isn’t appreciation or serious income. frequent tenant turn over. people who rent have very little income. all the wealthy moved to towns by grand tetons and sun valley.

AmericanKulak says

Back to 2015 inventory levels in Orlando, Tampa.

I hate Orlando and Tampa, so I could see them not being popular. It's the FL ghetto in my opinion. Wife wants to try different parts of FL and I just don't dig it. Jacksonville is a shit hole as well.

Problem is it's not a buyers market until you hit 6 months. The housing bust was 12+ months in many locations. I think at one point our neighborhood we sold the most in got up to 15 months inventory. Got a far way to go for a housing bust. Then they'll just drop interest rates, inflation be damned. I don't think we'll see 2005-2009 again in any of our lifetimes. That was more about lending standards and over building. I don't see either still.

WookieMan says

I hate Orlando and Tampa, so I could see them not being popular. It's the FL ghetto in my opinion. Wife wants to try different parts of FL and I just don't dig it. Jacksonville is a shit hole as well.

Agreed. Orlando never impressed me the first time I saw it as a kid, it was all sprawly. Now it's worse thanks to waves of "internal migration" as well as "international migration". When I see a Kia I keep at least 4 car lengths away. Kias and Beamers. The Greenbelt went out further and further until to live in anything like the edge, you're an hour out as the car drives over high traffic congested highways.

I never liked Tampa, it's actually the wokest, bluest city in Florida, full of retired Minnesota/Winsconsin UltraLeft Schoolmarms on one hand and Methheads on the other. People pick on Miami, but Miami has based Cubans and right wing rich people in big numbers to balance things; Tampa does not. That's why Tampa had a Soros-backed DA, soft on BLM riots, and DeSantis went after the DA and got the "Freedom to Escape Riots in Cars and shoot within 100 feet during riots" bill passed.

Sadly, the "Wild West" part of the South florida East Counties got developed like mad in the past 20 years. I remember my HS Girlfriend's was at the edge of the Savannah, there was a gas station on the main road just before turning on to her street, and beyond that to the West, nothing but the very occasional small modest new house, maybe 1-2/block.

I don't just mean Broward, but like St Lucie. I'm not paying $300k for a 20 year old 1400 sq ft that sits 45 minutes as the car drives in traffic from the beach. Same shit happened in Deltona, western Volusia County : it was a ruralish-retreat, but in the past 20 years is overdeveloped and packed with migrants living 10 to a 4 bedroom. Lee County is now getting Volusia'd.

Went to visit friends who are in the area, and what was once the wild, panther growling wilderness was wall-to-wall I-95 spawl with at least a dozen traffic lights and congestion up the ass.

I should drive over and check out the wild Panhandle-to-Pot area counties like Levy and Dixie, but I don't know the Meth situation there.

I like the FL-GA border west of Jax but well east of Tallahassee, up the Lake City / Osecola National Forest area. Unfortunately not in the cards due to child visitation difficulty. That area never gets hit by any substantial hurricanes and you can still find 5 acres and less zoning restrictions. Also you get a nice "Fall" season December-March.

The Villages are full of elderly drunks and and grandma swingers, as is Tampa, although Tampa has meth heads.

AmericanKulak says

I don't just mean Broward, but like St Lucie. I'm not paying $300k for a 20 year old 1400 sq ft that sits 45 minutes as the car drives in traffic from the beach. Same shit happened in Deltona, western Volusia County

try the best place on Earth ... its the American Riviera ... the Florida panhandle...

.

HeadSet says

Around here, there is a shortage of home listed because people do not want to sell their homes. One major reason is this example:

Current home, $1,000,000 mortgage at 2% has a monthly payment of $3,696.
Downsize home, $750,000 mortgage at 7% has a monthly payment of $4,990.

Moving to a smaller home at today's interest rates actually can increase the monthly nut and that is after costs like realtor commission and loan origination fees.

It's kind of like that here in California. Because the properties are mostly only reassessed upon sale (*).

If the zillow numbers are correct, a new neighbor on my street has an assessment of 1.05 M with annual tax bill of $15,000, for a 3/2 1200 sq ft 1970 construction with a bit of lipstick on the pig. A few doors away our assessment on 4/2 is about 350k with a tax bill of about $6000 (just a pig, no lipstick).

(*) Major renovations or improvements can cause the place to be reassessed without a change of ownership. Before s/he "went silent" on this blog BayArea shared about something like that happening, or threatened by a county agent to happen, after he upgraded his recent TriValley home. I know someone else, also in Alameda County, who had that happen.

AD says

try the best place on Earth ... its the American Riviera ... the Florida panhandle...

Too far to drive every weekend to Central FL. :(

Next housing crash coming soon? I know when we searched for rentals in Yuma, a number of owners were trying to rent after failing to sell for their desired price. And just like last year, a number of rentals dropped their prices a hundred dollars or more before they found tenants. The place we are moving to was originally listed for $100 more a month.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/housing-market-cracks-record-number-listed-homes-have-price-drops