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Polling Reality Check: Trump is far ahead now than he was in 2020


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2024 Aug 10, 6:51pm   232 views  14 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

POLLING Reality Check:

Per the LAST NYT/Siena Polls of 2020, Biden was going to win...

PA by 6.0; ended by 1.2 for Biden.

WI by 11.0; ended by 0.7 for Biden.

MI by 8.0; ended by 2.8 for Biden.

Harris is up only 4 in their current polling.

DISASTER for her!

https://x.com/YossiGestetner/status/1822445457177498105

And everyone of these polls is oversampling Dems to begin with.

Comments 1 - 14 of 14        Search these comments

1   Patrick   2024 Aug 11, 7:27am  

And even those margins of "victory" were just a reflection of the fake ballots printed up at 3am.
2   RWSGFY   2024 Aug 11, 8:28pm  

Nooooooo!
3   Patrick   2024 Aug 20, 8:05pm  

https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1825531458116542885


@DC_Draino
🚨You ready for some really good news?

Trump’s 2024 YouGov polling numbers are blowing his YouGov 2020 numbers *out of the water*🔥

Hispanic: 32% in 2020 -> now 41% in 2024

Black: 9% -> 17% (almost double!)

Men: 44% -> 54%

Women: 37% -> 44%

Seniors: 45% -> 57%

Even with Biden getting “the most votes in history” (LOL🤬), he only squeaked by in the Electoral College by less than 50,000 votes across 3 states

Even if Kamala improves her YouGov numbers by 30% between now and election day (I’d argue her numbers will actually go down after the debates), she’s still getting blown out in the Electoral College

Proof is in the numbers and it’s looking like a Trump landslide.


But still vote! The win needs to be stupendous to beat the increased margin of cheating that Democrats will attempt.
4   WookieMan   2024 Aug 20, 8:21pm  

Patrick says

But still vote! The win needs to be stupendous to beat the increased margin of cheating that Democrats will attempt.

If he doesn't fuck up in the debate, it's going to be a blow out. Even then I still think it's a blow out. There are too many things to peg on the democrats. They then pick a VP that let his city burn. Trump was always pro Israel, but also did the Abraham Accords trying to bring the region together. So Kamala has an issue with Muslims in Michigan and Minnesota, plus Jews. It's a double whammy. Trump at least picked a side and tried to get them to work together.

Border. Hiding for 3.5 years knowing your boss was senile. Sending billions to Israel and Ukraine. Covid mandates. Tie breaker votes in the Senate. Joe and Kamala's executive record is absolute trash.

I've also noticed closet Trump supporter are finally coming out of the closet and talking about voting for him. That wasn't the case in 2016 or 2020. Won't swing IL, but it's going to have an impact on House seats I think nationwide. Which probably is more important right now.
6   Patrick   2024 Aug 20, 8:31pm  

WookieMan says

If he doesn't fuck up in the debate, it's going to be a blow out. Even then I still think it's a blow out. There are too many things to peg on the democrats.


Right, the only possible way Dems can win is cheating on an intergalactic scale.
7   Misc   2024 Aug 20, 8:34pm  

Patrick says

WookieMan says


If he doesn't fuck up in the debate, it's going to be a blow out. Even then I still think it's a blow out. There are too many things to peg on the democrats.


Right, the only possible way Dems can win is cheating on an intergalactic scale.


Well...of course the aliens are gonna vote...
9   Patrick   2024 Aug 22, 10:47am  

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/coached-friday-august-22-2024-c-and


Watch out below! Before the DNC started on Monday morning, wagering site Polymarket bettors favored Kamala Harris (52%) over President Trump (48%), a +4 advantage for the Cackler. But after last night’s joyfully weird DNC ended, and the Coach had been introduced, the betting markets flipped, favoring Trump (53%) over Harris (46%), a +7 advantage, and more importantly, a +11 shift in Trump’s direction.




Polymarket is one of the places where people vote with their own money, which tends to make folks focus a little harder than, say, answering some telemarketing pollster in the middle of dinner.

Looks like the Coach fumbled the snap. It’s hard to say, the officials are still reviewing the tape. But Polymarket’s new numbers may also account for Robert Kennedy’s leaked plan to endorse Trump tomorrow, right after Kamala has been fully and finally nominated.
10   Eric Holder   2024 Aug 22, 11:11am  

Noooooooooo!
11   WookieMan   2024 Aug 23, 6:35am  

Patrick says

Polymarket is one of the places where people vote with their own money, which tends to make folks focus a little harder than, say, answering some telemarketing pollster in the middle of dinner.

The race is over unless at the debate he calls her a stupid nigger. Fact is even if she had anything of substance to say, her speaking style is nails on a chalkboard. Trump pulls off a smooth debate she's done for sure.
13   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Aug 25, 7:49pm  

WookieMan says

There are too many things to peg on the democrats. They then pick a VP that let his city burn. Trump was always pro Israel, but also did the Abraham Accords trying to bring the region together. So Kamala has an issue with Muslims in Michigan and Minnesota, plus Jews. It's a double whammy. Trump at least picked a side and tried to get them to work together.


None of that matters to swing voters.

In fact, nothing does with swing voters like for you, me and even the batshit bitter cat lady with the blue hair that screamed at us in the Starbucks line this morning.

Swing voters are literally NO-information (not low-information) 'voters' that are practically the equivalent of rolling the dice with their ballots.

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