patrick.net

WookieMan says

Also I-70 is a fuck show. They need 8 lanes total to Keystone from Denver They need probably $80B at least to widen that interstate and the Eisenhower tunnel. The economy is recreation. That's a massive choke point.

Need to promote more public transportation like buses since a rail solution is not feasible

My mom mentioned this is becoming more popular: https://ridebustang.com/bustang/?section=routesmap#west_line

AD says

Need to promote more public transportation like buses since a rail solution is not feasible

Lots of layers to this onion, at least for CO. One I'll never get on a bus. I have plenty of friends, but I'm not sharing space with people with planes being the exception to that rule. Commercial flight is 90% automated and turn some knobs and talk to ATC. I drive if I want to go somewhere. I don't trust other people when driving. Shouldn't admit this but I drink and drive in Montana. That's how little I trust other drivers. No DUI's ever and last ticket I was 18.

I-70 is a shit show 365 days a year. Denver is lame, so you go into the mountains. I'll go to Red Rocks in the summer, that's not bad. Going further west the traffic is god awful. A 90 mile drive turns into 6 hours. No one knows how to down shift and coast down a mountain without hitting the brakes every 3 seconds. So then everyone else starts braking and a traffic jam is formed. The auto parts stores and mechanics probably make a killing out there.

People that migrate to CO and haven't been are in for a rude awakening. You gotta wake up a 4am if you're going west. 7 days a week. Skiing/boarding, parks, hiking, etc. It's why I'll stick with Montana. Big Sky priced out the losers. So traffic is way less. You got the largest ski resort in the country and there's no traffic on 2 lane roads. CO has too many average ski hills. Haven't boarded in UT, but I've heard that is better. CO seems overrated. Hence why I don't think housing will do well there.

Places suited for public transportation are mostly pre wwii era cities. After that all US cities were built on a NSEW grid. Public transportation can get you only Lat or Lon in your travel. You then have to wait for another ride to continue on the opposite axis.

It was short sighted but equally foolish to try to shoehorn a public transportation into that.
Cities with excellent PT has many streets that run diagonally. You can go from southeast to northwest on one ride. That is the only reason it is so good. And the only reason PT is preferred in those cities is because the street are narrow and the can't accommodate more lanes. Or personal transportation would be preferred.

PT only has value when it is expedient and efficient, nobody wants to spend 2 hours and 3 to 4 connecting rides. To take a trip that takes 45 minutes in heavy city traffic if you driving your own car.

Tenpoundbass says

PT only has value when it is expedient and efficient, nobody wants to spend 2 hours and 3 to 4 connecting rides. To take a trip that takes 45 minutes in heavy city traffic if you driving your own car.

Not if we use PRT instead of street cars or buses.

There isn't one single rr line in all of South Florida that runs east to west. And no lines past one block of i95.
Idiots take the train north for 30 minutes, only to get off walk to the bus stop and wait for the bus for the next leg.

https://www.redfin.com/news/condo-supply-rises-florida-texas-2024/

Florida and Texas Condo Supply is Piling Up As Sales Slow Amid High HOA, Insurance Costs

https://franknez.com/jpmorgan-now-takes-an-8-figure-loss-after-unloading-real-estate/

JPMorgan Now Takes An 8-Figure Loss After Unloading Real Estate

JPMorgan now takes an 8-figure loss after unloading real estate in a deal with a ‘mega landlord’, several new reports are confirming.

JPMorgan Chase has reportedly sold a significant real estate investment in Los Angeles, California, incurring an eight-figure loss.

The bank’s Investment Management division disposed of a large apartment complex with retail space located in the Little Tokyo area, partnering with a “mega landlord,” as reported by The Real Deal.

The complex, situated at 232 East 2nd Street, was purchased for around $116 million in February 2020 but was recently sold for $86.1 million, resulting in a loss of $29.9 million.

https://x.com/JDunlap1974/status/1831219238490542200

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/condo-supply-rises-florida-texas-2024/

Florida and Texas Condo Supply is Piling Up As Sales Slow Amid High HOA, Insurance Costs

the cooling of the condo and co-op market in Panama City Beach may be because of the over saturation of AirBnB's and vacation rentals

the economy has cooled so that has impacted the vacation rental sector



.

U.S. House Prices Rise 5.7 Percent over the Last Year; Up 0.9 Percent from the First Quarter of 2024

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

08/27/2024

Washington, D.C. – U.S. house prices rose 5.7 percent between the second quarter of 2023 and the second quarter of 2024, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 0.9 percent compared to the first quarter of 2024. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was down 0.1 percent from May.

“U.S. house prices saw the third consecutive slowdown in quarterly growth,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The slower pace of appreciation as of June end was likely due to higher inventory of homes for sale and elevated mortgage rates.”

View a highlights video at https://youtu.be/a9zKNDgluXkExternal link icon.

Significant Findings

Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.
House prices rose in 50 states and the District of Columbia between the second quarter of 2023 and the second quarter of 2024. The five states with the highest annual appreciation were 1) Vermont, 13.4 percent; 2) West Virginia, 12.3 percent; 3) Rhode Island, 10.1 percent; 4) Delaware, 10.0 percent; and 5) New Jersey, 9.9 percent.
House prices rose in 96 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters. The annual price increase was the greatest in Syracuse, NY at 14.2 percent. The metropolitan area that experienced the most significant price decline was Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX at -3.2 percent.
All nine census divisions had positive house price changes year-over-year. The Middle Atlantic division recorded the strongest appreciation, posting a 8.5 percent increase from the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2024. The West South Central division recorded the smallest four-quarter appreciation, at 2.8 percent.
Trends in the Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas are available in our interactive dashboard: https://www.fhfa.gov/data/dashboard/fhfa-hpi-top-100-metro-area-rankings. The first tab displays rankings, and the second tab offers charts.
The FHFA HPI is a comprehensive collection of publicly available house price indexes that measure changes in single-family home values based on data that extend back to the mid-1970s from all 50 states and over 400 American cities. It incorporates tens of millions of home sales and offers insights about house price fluctuations at the national, census division, state, metro area, county, ZIP code, and census tract levels. FHFA uses a fully transparent methodology based upon a weighted, repeat-sales statistical technique to analyze house price transaction data.

FHFA releases HPI data and reports quarterly and monthly. The flagship FHFA HPI uses seasonally adjusted, purchase-only data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Additional indexes use other data including refinances, Federal Housing Administration mortgages, and real property records. All the indexes, including their historic values, and information about future HPI release dates, are available on FHFA’s website: https://www.fhfa.gov/HPI.

https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/u.s.-house-prices-rise-5.7-percent-over-the-last-year-up-0.9-percent-from-the-first-quarter-of-2024

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

U.S. House Prices Rise 5.7 Percent over the Last Year; Up 0.9 Percent from the First Quarter of 2024

Not stopping in most of the country. I've said this for years. We didn't build in most states. CO, FL, TX, TN, ID, etc yes, they built. Most the country with dispensable income didn't. We're just ramping up building in IL. We're talking 15-18 years of no new building and population growth.

Any housing crash nationally is 5-10 years off minimum. The above mentioned states it might happen sooner and drag down the national median. We're not in a housing crash.

WookieMan says

Not stopping in most of the country.

Around here a year ago, houses in desirable areas sold quickly for above asking. Now I am seeing price cuts in those same areas.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

Not stopping in most of the country.

Around here a year ago, houses in desirable areas sold quickly for above asking. Now I am seeing price cuts in those same areas.

$40k on a $875k original list price is nothing. So many other factors as well. Roof needs to be done. You've got $15k there. Exterior needs repainting and potentially residing. Deck is trash. Back to the roof, there's literally a dozen leak points on just one side of the house. So there's interior leaks as well.

Point being, someone needs to pay at least $40k to bring this house up to snuff. It's not a price drop. It's an overzealous seller overpricing a home and a dip shit Realtor trying to get another $1-2k on the commission. One photo can tell me this. Did the for 15 years. My boss had me do all the valuations. That house is shit my man. Shitty Realtor that didn't price the house right and let the owner make the price. They fucked themselves.

WookieMan says

$40k on a $875k original list price is nothing.

Going from above asking to discount shows a trend. This particular house is not the only example. A friend of mine recently closed selling a house in my neighborhood and had to drop the price. Her house was gorgeous and in mint condition. A year ago, the few houses that came up for sale in this neighborhood were bid above asking. Her house:

WookieMan says

Roof needs to be done. You've got $15k there. Exterior needs repainting and potentially residing. Deck is trash. Back to the roof, there's literally a dozen leak points on just one side of the house. So there's interior leaks as well.

Wow. Since the house was built in 1990, it would have needed some upkeep over the years. As far as the roof, that may be an artifact of the photo. Even so, I sent a bad example of a house drop there.

WookieMan says

Shitty Realtor that didn't price the house right and let the owner make the price.

Which is best, fix the stuff before listing at full price or leave be and do a discount?

HeadSet says

This particular house is not the only example. A friend of mine recently closed selling a house in my neighborhood and had to drop the price. Her house was gorgeous and in mint condition. A year ago, the few houses that came up for sale in this neighborhood were bid above asking. Her house:

Yep Yep

https://www.trulia.com/home/4197-john-richardson-ln-williamsburg-va-23188-213776659

,

AD says

Yep Yep

I guess one can do an image search. And by the way, that $26 per month HOA fee includes membership to that clubhouse and swimming pool.

HeadSet says

I guess one can do an image search. And by the way, that $26 per month HOA fee includes membership to that clubhouse and swimming pool.

Yep

.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

Shitty Realtor that didn't price the house right and let the owner make the price.

Which is best, fix the stuff before listing at full price or leave be and do a discount?

Fix it. 100%. Married you get the $500k exemption. Literally no one knows this rule (not the aforementioned), even accountants. You can go to the moon with this if you keep receipts of improvements $1-2M in gains could be tax free. They're far better off fixing the place up unless they just bought it. It clearly needed work.

At the end of the day neither of us knows their capital gains. Did they get it for $100k in the 90's? Looking at $700k and think it's not worth it to put money into it. Primary homes are no different if you know the tax code for write offs. Keep receipts. You can get $1M or whatever million if you have the receipts and pay no taxes. $300K home turns into a $3M home, but you spent $2M to improve it, you have no taxes on the sale even if above the cap gains rate.

The limited knowledge on housing and taxes is mind boggling for the general population. No one knows what I just typed. Can promise that. Search and learn. The married $500k cap gains is unlimited depending on how much you spend. Basically it's not $500k.

Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers don't want you to know. Comes across as a brag but I know about real estate and taxes more than any user here. I like you guys, but some just have no clue. Was going to be an attorney, dad was an attorney and sister is an attorney. I know much more than most. I studied to be one.

WookieMan says

Did they get it for $100k in the 90's?

According to the county accessor, the house was bought in 2006 for $662,500, so they would be within the $500k exemption without having to add improvement costs to the basis. Apparently, they bought near the top of that bubble.

WookieMan says

Literally no one knows this rule

I am surprised by this, that people would know about capital gains but not understand the concept of calculating the basis, especially repairs and improvements

Where I am looking, it appears that folks are unloading non-primary units. Second homes, Airbnb properties, etc.

Folks are trying to lock in outrageous gains on the homes. Example, 3BR, 3 BA, 2600 sq. ft. on a decent 2 acre lot, bought in 4/22 for $675,000, put on the market two years later. After a series of monthly and twice monthly price drops, still on the market now, four months after listing, for $930,000, currently. No work was done in the home by the last buyers.

Hey, Zillow said this was worth $1,000,000. What do you mean the price is too high now???? Gimme my damn winnings!!!!

If you are on the sidelines and can buy, now is the time to play hardball. I think.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Where I am looking, it appears that folks are unloading non-primary units. Second homes, Airbnb properties, etc.

Folks are trying to lock in outrageous gains on the homes. Example, 3BR, 3 BA, 2600 sq. ft. on a decent 2 acre lot, bought in 4/22 for $675,000, put on the market two years later. After a series of monthly and twice monthly price drops, still on the market now, four months after listing, for $930,000, currently. No work was done in the home by the last buyers.

Hey, Zillow said this was worth $1,000,000. What do you mean the price is too high now???? Gimme my damn winnings!!!!

If you are on the sidelines and can buy, now is the time to play hardball. I think.

I used to say "if Zillow says it's worth $1M l will believe it if Zillow actually buys it for that price". And then they tried to do exactly tgat and almost sunk under the weight of all the houses they overpaid for. Now they are back to just saying it, LOL.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

If you are on the sidelines and can buy, now is the time to play hardball. I think.

Good point, which reminded me about Florida Condos.

Many Florida Condos are 'shadow inventory' - they're snowbird places, crash pads, and money-hiding assets for non-Americans.

When the Condo Fees are $400/month, it's one thing. When they become $1800/month and top of a $40k assessment to make up for decades of no reserves, it's another thing.

The ironic thing is that had people contributed an Olive Garden trip worth each month to the building reserves, they wouldn't be getting 200-300% Condo Fee increases or 5 figure assessments today.

WookieMan says

Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers don't want you to know.

Fixed:
Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers and government don't want you to know.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers don't want you to know.

Fixed:
Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers and government don't want you to know.

Too many hidden rules and IRS hidden gems. We should all be pissed about that. No one should be getting any special tax treatment at all. No one.

zzyzzx says

Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers and government don't want you to know.

But we can trust our paper currency, can't we? After all, it's backed up with a promise by the good folks at the Federal Reserve who work tirelessly in the American people's best interests.

"And here can be your Jacuzzi". I wonder why they don't show the inside of this gem. However, the value of this property is in the acquired building permits (years and nearly impossible in Santa Cruz) for multi occupancy construction. Apparently the developer decided not to compete with the various high rise 'low income' projects around Santa Cruz (apparatchik grants for the various politically connected).

Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Rate drops make August most affordable month since February, as home price growth cools to 12-month low

Declining mortgage rates have brought home affordability to its best level since February and boosted refinance incentive for many recent-vintage mortgages

With 30-year conforming rates down 60 bps from just over 7% in May, the principal and interest payment on the average-priced home purchase is $145 less per month than just three months ago

The share of income needed to make payments on that home (34.3%) is still 10 pp above its 30-year average and ICE Market Trends data shows recent record highs in down payments and credit scores

Spurred by rate declines, purchase loan demand had two of its best weeks since March, but remains noticeably below the levels seen earlier this year and in 2023 when rates were at comparable levels

The ICE Home Price Index for July showed the annual rate of home price growth slipping to +3.6% from +4.1% in June, marking the slowest pace in 12 months on rising inventory and still-soft demand

While prices were up +0.19% from June at the national level, they fell by -0.25% or more across each of Florida’s nine largest metros which, along with Austin, saw the largest single-month declines in July

In the Midwest and Northeast, inventory shortages persist, and prices continued to push higher in July
emphasis added.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/ice-mortgage-monitor-house-price-growth.html

Demand for mortgages to buy a house has plummeted by 44% from pre-pandemic levels, and is now in the biggest collapse since the 2008 housing crisis.

Americans are no longer buying homes with mortgages because housing affordability has surged out of control. The typical payment for homebuyers in 2024 is around $2,800/month including mortgage, taxes, insurance.

https://youtu.be/D0Jgp2i8Ti0

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Declining mortgage rates have brought home affordability to its best level since February

Baloney. Lower rates just mean higher sales prices.

HeadSet says

Baloney. Lower rates just mean higher sales prices.

BINGO! Just another "Now is a good time to buy!" RE fluffer article.

When prices fucking drop 80 - 100% is when we hit "good time to buy" time.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2098281

.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4725-Bay-Point-Rd-254-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32408/42791565_zpid/

this condo rented for around $1000 back in 2016 , so the rent went up about 5% a year

that closed in patio with all those windows can be converted to a bedroom by putting in a sliding glass door the entire opening or that along with a wall ; that makes it a 2 bedroom condo with total 900 square feet ; that is what my Bay Point condo had back in early 1990s

Bay Point is the best place on Earth for any of you all that want to retire and move to paradise (Florida panhandle)

.

I don't care where you guys live. AD obviously mentions it frequently. So do I. Market seems confused and/or overbuilt in certain states dragging down the national average.

My small town we had 20 years of ZERO building. Nothing. With higher interest rates, we have more building of businesses and housing. Same in neighboring towns. Places like FL, TX, MT, ID, AZ, CO still had solid building after the bust. Those are the states that take the beating in my opinion. AD in the Panhandle shouldn't be too bad. The penis of FL might not do so well.

We're doing good in these parts of IL. We already had our exodus though. Minimal inflow, but people are finally staying and need to catch up with 20 years of no building as younger people stay and come to home buying age. It's still pretty affordable outside of yuppie suburbs. Chicago in neighborhoods you don't need a bullet proof vest, you're about the $1M price point. But that's not bad for Chicago white collar incomes. Technically cheap.

My car renews DMV registration fee was $820 in CA vs, $75 in TX.

More private owners are trying to get subsidized by Corp-Gov shennanigans to house up migrants. Good news, locals are starting to be more aware.

https://patrick.net/post/1382069/2024-09-13-people-getting-wise-to-the-landlord

REpro says

My car renews DMV registration fee was $820 in CA vs, $75 in TX.

That's insane without a freeze thaw cycle in much of the state. I think we're $135(ish).

Also, instead of disliking a comment, just ignore me. Petty.

I like up and down voting. It’s feedback.

It's another massive bubble... worse than the '08 one.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA