patrick.net

Too broad. What would be the issue to fight over? Which states would try to secede?

We are undergoing a major political party realignment. When that finishes shaking out, we'll see if a civil war is needed.

We are almost done. Another two or three election cycles. Working class America and US Chamber of Commerce factions need to find permanent homes in the parties. Then coalition consensus for each party after that.

US loss of currency domination would end the bread and circus pretty fast. At more than a trillion more in debt a year the parasite class is about to loose their shit. Even a second great depression would end this country.

Only escape aside from collapse would be a large scale war which in this day and age would be worse.

RC2006 says

US loss of currency domination would end the bread and circus pretty fast

No such thing is about to happen. The rest of the world is way more fucked up than we are. In large part because the dollar system was designed to do that in the first place.

Every USD denominated reserve debt instrument introduced to the world system also introduces future demand for USD to service those debts. And at any given moment, over 2 - 4 times more debt in the eurodollar markets exists than USTs.

And because of that...



Shit, so we actually did Russia a favor in forcing it to fly around planeloads of gold to settle international trade. They operate outside of this trap.

So, foreigners don't give a shit about what groceries and gas costs the US consumer. So forget about 'currency debasement' involving the USD is concerned. It's social media posts by propagandists and the ignorant, that's all.

They are debasing THEIR own currencies to acquire USD to pay debts they owe amongst each other in order to trade amongst themselves. When it catches up with them, they undergo nasty e/r evaluations as a result. Rinse, repeat. Whenever the Fed raises or lower rates quickly, that exacerbates said difficulties amongst themselves.

And that is why the rest of the world will go to fiat shit before the US does, believe it or not.

And yes, the order of who gets fucked before others makes a difference. The more your currency makes it to the end, the more propped up it's economy will be because of it.

Thus, Japanese banks are not selling USTs because 'the dollar is going to shit'. They are doing so to acquire dollars to shore up their dollar reserves because their carry trade is blowing up. And that is caused because the BoJ was forced to raise interest rates to shore up the Yen, not the USD.

And BRICS isn't around because the dollar 'is going to shit' but because the opposite. A form of Gresham's Law amongst the fiat currencies is kicking in. USD is the 'good money'. BRICS is trying to set up a type of 'real bills' system like medieval fairs used, Germany used to trade as part of its post-hyperinflationary period and US firms used amongst themselves in the Depression. The practice of invoicing net 30, net 60 and net 90 and acquiring bank financing with those net receivables are vestiges of this era.

In all three eras, gold(cash) was in so short supply as to make these trade settlement regimes necessary.

(Well, the part of BRICS that isn't just PR bullshit. Hence why only the Russians of all the BRICS members actually are sincere at it beyond the PR. Remember, they already fly planeloads of gold to settle their shit.)

Woops!

Looks like the beginning of a Civil War is starting after all:

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

No such thing is about to happen. The rest of the world is way more fucked up than we are. In large part because the dollar system was designed to do that in the first place.

Truth. My SIL has lived in Europe for 9 months of the year for the past 5. UK, Germany, Austria and Italy. At some point Europeans are going to have to be more Americanized. Getting a month or two of "holiday" is not sustainable for their economies with how much their governments take from them. That is the GOOD part of the world and it's dying.

Europe is a lot like CA if making a comparison. There are a lot of high paying jobs, investment options, etc. Everything looks good from the outside. Your average joe getting taxed at 50% when everything is accounted for is basically poor. When Trump wins he needs to complete the Republican party transformation. No wars. Less taxes. He's obviously courted the union members at this point (not a fan of unions).

Outside most of N. America and a few Middle East countries (Australia and NZ are a different planet in my world) the world is in bad shape. And technically other countries hurting helps the dollar keep on being the reserve currency. A civil war is an impossibility. You have to have a gun. Probably 70% of guns are owned by 90% being Republican. The military is mostly conservative, a coup is likely out of the question.

Civil war has kind of already started anyway. The funny part is it's all in liberal cities. Kenosha, WI being a somewhat outlier. So it's basically a war on themselves so far. Try it in my town. Warning shot in the air as 100 armed men start walking towards you. 2,200 people here and there's probably 6,000 guns. Also farm town. Making explosives would be easy and cheap with farmers and fertilizer companies.

I don't mind Tim Poole, but he's a bit hyperbolic with the civil war rhetoric which is where I think this post is coming from. It's not happening in this country. There will always be one off attacks or riots, always has been. Dems have to be careful though poking the bear too much. Rittenhouse was one kid. Add 1M with even bigger and better guns and more ammo and experience. My army buddy out in Montana could take out 50 people in a heartbeat. This is why I don't think a civil war gets started in our lifetimes. It would be a 100:1 kill ratio and be over in minutes or a day at tops.

WookieMan says

Your average joe getting taxed at 50% when everything is accounted

Same in Canada.WookieMan says

The military is mostly conservative,

Enlisted rank & file, yes. Officers woketarded as fuck.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

reserve debt instrument

What is a reserve debt instrument?

Patrick says

What is a reserve debt instrument?

Sounds like an IOU.

Patrick says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

reserve debt instrument

What is a reserve debt instrument?

USTs held by banks and the Fed for their reserves are reserve debt instruments. Reserves as being defined in this case to maintain their loan to reserve ratios. IE, 'the stuff that fractional banking is made of'.

Outside the US, USD denominated sovereign and grade AAA commercial paper issued often fulfill this purpose. That's a lot more total USD denominated debt created as a result. More than we do.

But the USD needed to pay that debt and interest is only issued by the US.

So for example, a bank in Luxembourg issues new eurodollar loans with some USTs but mostly USD sovereign debt issued say, by Poland and some high grade corporate USD paper issued by AMSL as reserves for that loan. So the polish and AMSL USD paper are reserve debt instruments held by that bank.

But the dollars needed to pay back that loan and for the Polish and AMSL reserve debt instruments AND for the interest needed to be paid for both all fundamentally need to come from one source: the US.

Think of that like an onion: Whatever fractional reserve lending game of musical chairs we have going on in the US that generates future demand for USD to play, there's another layer on top of that when it comes to the rest of the world.

This is why when the US rapidly spikes interest rates, it fucks the eurodollar system just as it does its own mortgage market and the R/E prices it propped up. The Japs aren't dumping USTs because they 'think they are devalued crap' but because their banks need USD liquidity because ther carry trade is going to shit. But the ignorant BRICS fluffers spin it otherwise.

De-dollarization = deleveraging USD denominated credit, and thus deflation of assets depending on it. Just like homeowners in the US can't afford to borrow as much for a house like they once did, so eventually house prices have to drop. And Blockrock can't hold on to its R/E portfolio when it's short term financing for it needs to be renewed.

None of this is - nor can be - addressed by BRICS. That's why BRICS is fucking bullshit insofar as the above is concerned.

BRICS could set up something to be used where dollars are not already used. For trade settlememt. And that, over time can grow. But only linearly and will hit a ceiling or eventually will provoke that deleveraging of global USD denominated assets if it truly dedollarizes those. And where will countries get the USD they will still need to finance the USD debts they hold with each other if they are taking BRICS scrip or whatever for their exports?

^^^ this is why an alternative reserve currency to the USD has never come about. The Europeans were the last to attempt it but gave up after the GFC. The Japanese had pretentions before that.

Supposedly the Mil Intels, the various gaming strategies and Trump said any strategy of theirs would have to have two conditions: no civil war and no military coup. This is why the Insurrection Act was never signed (Civil War, Globalist demons win) and why the Law of War Manual was generated and updated. Apparently, we are regarded as a country under hostile occupation, and the proceedings need to be intricately defined for legal restoration.