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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   610,730 views  5,754 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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5715   WookieMan   2024 Dec 28, 1:24pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says
What world is that?

I don't really know anyone making less than $70-80k/yr where I live on an individual basis. So a dual income home should easily pull $120k

That world ^^^.

Trailer park people make $70k as a family. That's two full time McDonalds jobs. The drag on median income honestly is what I listed above and whores that can't keep their pussy closed and get knocked up and can't work and go on food stamps.

You also have people that make income, but it's not part of the data. I can borrow $150k off my house right now tax free and it doesn't show as income. I don't know or care to know what state you live in but it's not hard to make money. I can't tell if you think my take is a low or high amount.

I'm in rural IL which is mostly blue collar working class. But everyone that I live around does well enough.

Explain what your issue is with what I'm commenting on? Do you think it's low or high? Explain why. My world is maybe above average, but normal to me. I'm not getting your take.
5716   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Dec 28, 2:45pm  

AmericanKulak says

SFBA is going to be one of the first to go, and it's already 'stealth happening', it just hasn't started to pick up exponential speed.

Do you live in the Bay Area? Just asking.
5717   HeadSet   2024 Dec 28, 3:40pm  

WookieMan says

I can borrow $150k off my house right now tax free and it doesn't show as income.

Oh, by the hairy dugs of Istar. That $150k is not taxed because it is not income. It is a debt, a liability that must be paid back with interest. In fact, getting an equity loan decreases your net worth, since you lose out with the origination fees and points. Putting your house up as collateral on a loan you must qualify for with real income does not mean your house made you money. An exception may be a reverse mortgage, but a reverse mortgage is a bad idea except for limited circumstances.
5718   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 28, 4:10pm  

WookieMan says

I'm not getting your take.

Trailer park people make $70k as a family.


Tell us more bullshit about your wife. Go on!

You forgot to do that this time.

WookieMan says

You'd have to be a retard not to make $100-150k as a couple


So now it's 'Trailer park people make $70k as a family.' ?

Is your other account socal2 or something? Because you engage in the same goal post moving when your bullshit is caught out.


5719   AmericanKulak   2024 Dec 28, 4:21pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says


But it's not.


It's not, but it can. It's because the Japanese Alphas while protecting Japan aren't realizing that Mid Men getting decent Pussy is the real Economic Motivator. Just like the Roman Empire, and every other degrading society, Women would rather be one of the C-Suites, Senator, or Wealthy Equite's side bitch along with 6 other gals, than be the Centurion or Farmer or 9to5 Joes' wife. Or at least a thug who is thrilling and bad ass.

That's the true fundamental of Economics. Money is just a stand in for Pussy Pull resources

Mid Range Dudes getting Regular Pussy builds civilization. THEN the love for the kids keep them going.

Japan can fix their situation very quickly, by implementing Patriarchy, reforming Divorce laws, and incentivizing children & home ownership.

We can do the same if we get Japan'd
5720   AmericanKulak   2024 Dec 28, 4:24pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says


Do you live in the Bay Area? Just asking.

No.

I'm going by reports of a Commercial Real Estate slowdown in a market that was once overheated and "Permanent Plateau'd" ... SFBA has now one of the highest office space vacancy rates in the nation at over 36% and rents/sq ft at 2015 price points. The latter despite the 2020-2023 inflation.

Worse than Seattle, Denver, Chicago, and other cities in difficulty.

(Holy Shit did Denver get to be a shithole 2008 vs. 2018)
5721   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Dec 28, 5:57pm  

AmericanKulak says


SFBA is going to be one of the first to go, and it's already 'stealth happening', it just hasn't started to pick up exponential speed.

AmericanKulak says


B.A.C.A.H. says

Do you live in the Bay Area? Just asking.

No.


American, I hope you are right.

I've lived in the same neighborhood of San Jose since 1968.

Life is miserable here because the region is over crowded making the congestion, traffic etc a nightmare and causing all sorts of distortions because housing cost is too high.

According to a real estate website the value of my sh*tbox 1200 sq ft home in an undesirable neighborhood went down from 1.3 M to 1.1 M in recent months. I wish it went down more, like to the 0.35 M it's assessed for (thank you, Proposition-13). Half the houses on my culdesac have people living in garages ("doubling/tripling up"), all working adults with jobs and cars (and hence no parking on the street). We need the stampede you cite.

There's no schoolagers anywhere because families cannot afford to live in the region. The only schoolagers on my culdesac live in the garage of someone else's home. Schools are closing all over the place.

And yet we still have homes being bought by a "pool" of adults, who appear to me to be extended family of immigrant Asians, buying-in like this is freaking Hong Kong, with their fleets of expensive European sedan cars. Two such sales on my culdesac in recent years.

So I dunno. 0.2 M "loss" on my residence looks like noise from here. Patrick created his website two decades ago out of frustration of ®ealtors telling him that "it's different here".
.
5722   WookieMan   2024 Dec 28, 8:19pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Tell us more bullshit about your wife. Go on!

So you're a jealous loser. I'm used to this at this point in life. Not sure why I'm engaging. Trailer park people make more than you. It's upsetting, but get over it. Wife makes a shit load of money and I'm proud of her. Sorry you didn't find one and had to make a "sexy picture" thread on a random website to look at something you'll never get. I'm the crazy one though.
5723   Blue   2024 Dec 28, 10:43pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says


There's no schoolagers anywhere because families cannot afford to live in the region. The only schoolagers on my culdesac live in the garage of someone else's home. Schools are closing all over the place.

CA 1978 Prop-13 golden handcuffs!
Most existing shack owners can not move to keep almost zero property taxes unless move to a different state.
Also there is not much new building activity around for families with school age kids to move in to send them to schools.
This is the side effect of Prop-13. Prop-13 kills communities eventually but gradually. Watching few great school districts in south bay area are on their death row because of the lack of students. Without rental, the process would have been accelerated their closings.
5724   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 28, 10:49pm  

WookieMan says


So you're a jealous loser


How is calling out your constant bullshit make me jealous or a loser?

Your constant INSUFFERABLE bullshit.

WookieMan says


Trailer park people make more than you.


How much do I make? I never told you. Again, more bullshit from you.

WookieMan says


Wife makes a shit load of money and I'm proud of her.


If true, good for you. For everyone else, don't give a shit. Especially when it isn't germaine to the topic at hand.

You have some severe problems upstairs, pal.
5726   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 4:48am  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

If true, good for you. For everyone else, don't give a shit. Especially when it isn't germaine to the topic at hand.

You have some severe problems upstairs, pal.

This is a real estate thread. I know more than anyone here and I can promise that. I can promise I know more people in my personal network that know know you. I know their value/income. I know well over 100 lenders that are tops in the industry. Attorneys. I know owners of banks. Again a real estate thread.

There aren't problems upstair in my world. You constantly go after Socal2 even if he makes a valid comment, which he does. If he likes his EV who gives a shit. State you point and move on. You have to be right all the time and mostly aren't. Never admit a wrong take on something. You seem like a very insecure man.

You still haven't explained why you think my claim of $100-150k being mundane income is "my world." I'm not poor living in an inner-city ghetto where people don't even have jobs making it look like we're a poor nation. I'm sorry you live where you do, wherever that is. Uhaul has a business where you put stuff in a truck and move it to a new place. Maybe move to reality. I hear it's a great place.
5727   stfu   2024 Dec 29, 4:59am  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

You have some severe problems upstairs, pal.

Yup! Use the ignore function and suddenly Patnet becomes much better.
5728   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 5:02am  

stfu says

DOGEWontAmountToShit says


You have some severe problems upstairs, pal.

Yup! Use the ignore function and suddenly Patnet becomes much better.

Agree. I don't use it, but I'll call bull shitters out anytime. Someone being wrong is not right in my world. If you don't like it, just say goodbye. And I stay logged in all the time. So you'll just disappear outside of a quote. I don't log off to view posts.
5729   gabbar   2024 Dec 29, 6:51am  

stfu says

Shit, last person to leave turn off the lights - is it really so bad?!?

We don't turn off the lights in commercial buildings because we get to claim electricity bill as a expense on taxes or are we just lazy and foolish on this? Just asking.
5730   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 7:24am  

WookieMan says

This is a real estate thread. I know more than anyone here and I can promise that. I can promise I know more people in my personal network that know know you. I know their value/income. I know well over 100 lenders that are tops in the industry. Attorneys. I know owners of banks. Again a real estate thread.


OMG you are so messed up.
5731   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 8:11am  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

OMG you are so messed up.

What do you think people's incomes are? Please tell. I believe you might live in a shitty area. The non-answer is telling.
5732   HeadSet   2024 Dec 29, 8:35am  

WookieMan says

This is a real estate thread. I know more than anyone here and I can promise that.

Do not be arrogant. You called me a liar when I posted that my real estate taxes went up by $2,000. I showed the proof with screen shots from the county assessor, and you said "get an appeal" like it was sage advice and neither I or other country residents would have thought of that. On another issue, you claimed that no one can have a septic system on waterfront property. I then showed several examples on Zillow of upscale waterfront properties around my area that use septic systems. You do not know these things because they are outside your experience working as a "non-selling" member of a real estate office in your state.
5733   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 8:36am  

WookieMan says

What do you think people's incomes are? Please tell. I believe you might live in a shitty area. The non-answer is telling.


You keep jumping back and forth between claiming to know that something is vs just thinking you do and back again.

I make no claims of knowing what ppls' situations are. Because I can't know specifically. Which is why I call you out on your bullshit when you do.

BTW, you claimed to know what I make. Well, spit it out genius! Your 'network' can tell you, remember?

You have severe mental problems, it seems. Go get some help.
5734   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 9:25am  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

BTW, you claimed to know what I make. Well, spit it out genius! Your 'network' can tell you, remember?

Again, I said you're insecure. It's okay. You balk at me stating someone make $150K as a family. That's not remotely far fetched unless you live in a ghetto.

HeadSet says

Do not be arrogant. You called me a liar when I posted that my real estate taxes went up by $2,000. I showed the proof with screen shots from the county assessor, and you said "get an appeal" like it was sage advice and neither I or other country residents would have thought of that.

This is my point. You guys, not just you, but everyone here has no clue how to lower their assessment/taxes. Showing proof of the increase is fine, but you didn't need to have that happen. You guys are playing a different game. Getting taken advantage of. I simply don't play that game. When you have nothing to lose you have all the leverage. $2M in untouchable money and assets. I also have connections. Everything legal.

Treat me like some idiot, but I know what I'm doing. Helped develop a subdivision with my Dad when I was 12. Sewer, water, excavating, dealing with municipalities. I did that work and ran accounting and books for his law firm. I witness a lot of insecure men on this forum to be honest. A bunch of naked chicks they'll never get. It's rather embarrassing.
5735   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 10:00am  

WookieMan says


Again, I said you're insecure.


How is calling you out on your bullshit claiming you know what everyone makes 'insecure'?
WookieMan says


Treat me like some idiot.


No. I actually do not think you are an idiot. I do think you need to see a mental health professional and maybe be put on some meds.
5736   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 10:27am  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

Again, I said you're insecure.

How is calling you out on your bullshit claiming you know what everyone makes 'insecure'?

Just answer. It's a question. Ball park it. Bull shit it. I don't need to know the exact. You puff your chest on this site like you're some big wig guy. Based on this line of conversation I'm guessing $60k. That's not bad. Just own it. A porn addict that makes average wages. Could be worse.
5737   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 10:29am  

WookieMan says

Just answer. It's a question.


What? That you are full of shit? Not a question.
5738   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 10:30am  

WookieMan says

Based on this line of conversation I'm guessing $60k.


Why should I tell you when you claim to already 'know' from your network of contacts?
5739   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 10:43am  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says


Based on this line of conversation I'm guessing $60k.


Why should I tell you when you claim to already 'know' from your network of contacts?

Because you don't know anyone so how would I know? You look at boobs all day on a computer screen. Generally that's a gas station job. So maybe $45k? Maybe I was giving more credit than was due. You got all sensitive at the $150k amount. So clearly I hit the potential ceiling and triggered you. It's okay.
5740   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 1:41pm  

WookieMan says


Because you don't know anyone so how would I know?


You claimed that you did. You do that shit all the time. Then you use said made up crap as a strawman to push some BS attack to 'prove your bullshit points'.

Like a broken record.
5741   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 1:53pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says



Because you don't know anyone so how would I know?


You claimed that you did. You do that shit all the time. Then you use said made up crap as a strawman to push some BS attack to 'prove your bullshit points'.

Like a broken record.

Oh god, strawman territory now. Jesus christ. This conversation goes away if you just say what you make and how my comment about income was not answered. You keep avoiding it.

You took offense to my $100-150k income comment. Explain why? You clearly make less at this point and got offended. That's okay if you're happy. If you're not, don't take it out on me because I do well. Jealousy is a bad disease to have. Deal with it daily coming at me.
5742   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 1:59pm  

WookieMan says


You took offense to my $100-150k income comment


No I didn't. You have some real probs keeping what you dream up in your head vs. with reality.

You're also obsessed on what you think I make. And you claim your 'network of contacts' would have told you what I make.

All because you are desperate to defend the bullshit claim that you KNOW what ppl can make and if they don't you disparage them because then some point you made turns into bullshit.

Or what they pay in property tax. Or what they can make at McDonald's. Or about housing prices.

Or even some stupid BS rant where you claim with me 'double posting a meme' on different threads when I did not. Jesus Christ!


5743   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 2:12pm  

Still no answer. You could just lie. You can't even do that well.

Fact is I'll never meet you in my life. Just answer a question. You seem offended that I thought $100-150k is easy to make. It is. Maybe not for you I guess, hence the negativity.
5744   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 2:14pm  

WookieMan says


Still no answer


WTF is your problem?

WookieMan says


You seem offended that I thought $100-150k


That is ALL in your fucking head. And it keeps changing! Also ALL in your fucking head. Just like it is in your head that you have this 'network of contacts' that told you what I made...except when that all magically disappears from your head and then you demand I tell you what I make....OBSESSIVELY so.

AGAIN: WTF is your problem?

WookieMan says

hence the negativity.



5745   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 2:21pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

Still no answer

WTF is your problem?

You came at me chief. I have something like 14k comments I think. Call me out where I've been wrong. Might take a while, but I'll own it if you find something.
5746   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 2:32pm  

WookieMan says

You came at me chief.


Yeah, I called you out on your made up bullshit. You doubled down and now you are well into Crazy World.
5747   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 2:36pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says


You came at me chief.


Yeah, I called you out on your made up bullshit. You doubled down and now you are well into Crazy World.

What bull shit? Name something.
5748   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Dec 29, 2:38pm  

WookieMan says

DOGEWontAmountToShit says


WookieMan says



You came at me chief.


Yeah, I called you out on your made up bullshit. You doubled down and now you are well into Crazy World.


What bull shit? Name something.



5749   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 2:41pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says


DOGEWontAmountToShit says



WookieMan says




You came at me chief.


Yeah, I called you out on your made up bullshit. You doubled down and now you are well into Crazy World.



What bull shit? Name something.






I've met children that are better trolls. Keep it coming. I'm literally laughing at your comments now.
5750   Patrick   2024 Dec 29, 3:17pm  

@DOGEWontAmountToShit

Wookieman had nothing to do with marking your insult as personal. That was a different user, and it was me to agreed that it's personal.
5751   Ceffer   2024 Dec 29, 3:35pm  

50 shades of ad hominem incriminum.
5752   GreaterNYCDude   2024 Dec 29, 4:31pm  

Up until Work from home became a thing, you'd have an urban center with (generally) concentric rings, from the suburbs to the exbirbs to the rural areas. Prices ebbed and flowed within each ring depending on commute time, taxes, school quality, etc. The pendulum also swings between "let's get away from the city" to " the city is where it's at", in roughly twelve year cycles.

I'd also reckon that most of us live or work near one of these major metro areas. NYC, San Fran, Chicago, LA, Boston, DC, etc.

If your a working professional in one of these areas, a $70k base salary isn't all that high of a bar to clear. Particularly if you have been in your chosen field for 10 or even 20 years. Add in a partner who works, even part time, and a $100,000 is suddenly within reach for many.

The issue is that home prices have far outpaced incomes. Too come up with even a 10% down payment for a first time home buyer is going to be a stretch without assistance from a third party be it a rich Uncle, a parent or a government subsidized program. In my area "starter" homes go for $400k plus. It's hard for a young couple to save the $40k to $50k they will need. So the average homebuyer trends older.

It was that way twenty years ago when I first started looking for a house. Then the bubble burst, the bottom dropped out of the market, and in time, things bounced back.

I do think that a shifting demographic combined with the remote work option for some will change how cities and urban areas evole over the next decade... But urban areas still seem to be where wealth concentrates.

As for me I prefer having the city at arms length. Good to go for a day trip or a quick overnight but would want to schlep day in and day out.
5753   HeadSet   2024 Dec 29, 4:31pm  

WookieMan says


Getting taken advantage of. I simply don't play that game. When you have nothing to lose you have all the leverage. $2M in untouchable money and assets. I also have connections. Everything legal.

You are a yokel. $2M in "assets" isn't squat when it comes to influencing local officials. In fact, I am very sure that most of my neighbors have over $2M not including their house. Just a few miles down the road is neighborhood of $10M homes, and a quick look at public records shows they did not get a break either. Also, as I said on a prior post, I was on the phone with the actual county assessor for at least 1/2 hour while he explained in detail why my assessment was going to stay at the increased level.

And just how is your $2M "untouchable?" Is it the cash value of a disability annuity or pension? Inherited IRAs? Are you including the value of your wife's life insurance if she should die?
5754   WookieMan   2024 Dec 29, 10:03pm  

HeadSet says

And just is your $2M "untouchable?" Is it the cash value of a disability annuity or pension? Inherited IRAs? Are you including the value of your wife's life insurance if she should die?

Untouchable. Another $2M if we're talking life insurance. Her or I die and it's $4M at 41-42 years of age. Not including equity in our house. At a conservative interest rate of 2% I'm looking at $80k per year. Doing nothing and not draining the $2M or if one of us dies $4M. I'm retired now basically. Wife could be too. Just have 6 more years with kids and we're done at 48 roughly.

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