patrick.net

mell says

Most people locked in cheap fixed rates and since then new home sales have been slow, so not a lot of risky arm or high rate mortgage holders.

I figure 3.21 million mortgage accounts generated from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023.

I estimate at least 2.5 million out of the 3.21 million are underwater with their mortgages, so that is 2.5 million out of currently 85.10 million accounts, hence its about 2.94%.

Compare this to 25% of mortgages being underwater in 2010.

https://money.cnn.com/2010/02/23/real_estate/underwater_rates_rise/?section=money_latest

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AmericanKulak says

https://www.trulia.com/home/164-robin-ln-panama-city-beach-fl-32407-42798385
Looks like somebody from out of state brought past the peak of COVID and trying to get out with a profit. Although it looks like they tried to AirBNB it.

This 1000 sq ft place sold for $202k just before COVID in 2020, brought at the end of COVID for $300k. It went up a lot in just over 5 years, eh? If it's such a good rental, why are they running away so fast?

The property tax is probably ~$2500, certainly not less than $2100. Insurance gotta be $6000, minimum.
https://clovered.com/homeowners-insurance/florida/panama-city-beach/

Here are my estimates of the annual costs:
1. Property Tax : $2700
2. Property Insurance HO-6: $1500 (the HOA covers the master insurance policy)
3. HOA regular assessment: $4488 (covers master insurance, roof and exterior maintenance, landscaping, etc)
4. Maintenance and Repair: $1500 (0.5% of a replacement value of $300,000)
5. Rental Property Manager: $2000 (they manage the vacation rental unit like clean the unit, handle the bookings, etc)

annual total expenses: $9,488 (round up to $10,000)

Here is my estimate on revenue:
1. Assume 180 days booked at a generous or very conservative rate of $200 a day , which is $36,000

Net income: $26,000

Assume they purchase the home with cash with total cost (includes closing cost) for $350,000

Hence the annual ROI is $26,000 / $350,000 x 100% or 7.4%

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AD says

Assume they purchase the home with cash with total cost (includes closing cost) for $350,000

To be more accurate, you may want to deduct from the ROI the lost interest of using that cash. At 4.5% that would be about $16k, so the actual ROI would be $10,000 over what you would get by leaving the money in a one year CD.

HeadSet says

AD says
Assume they purchase the home with cash with total cost (includes closing cost) for $350,000

To be more accurate, you may want to deduct from the ROI the lost interest of using that cash. At 4.5% that would be about $16k, so the actual ROI would be $10,000 over what you would get by leaving the money in a one year CD.

My estimate was very conservative, so the 7.4% annual ROI is the worst expected return. Also it does not take into account the annual appreciation of the property.

But I agree that CD's now are an attractive asset class with an annual real or inflation-adjusted return of about 1.75%

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And this is just 2023 data...

https://t.co/tShhmGDN2S

DeportLibtards says

https://t.co/tShhmGDN2S

Remnants of Biden Admin economy as I recall before the 2024 election that they were extending COVID forbearance policies for FHA mortgages.

By the way, this is now on rental market: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1741-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121153821_zpid/

It was foreclosed on and was bought for around $217K by an Indian-American investor out of Boulder, Colorado, and then turned around or flipped on the marketplace at $330K.

It has not sold and is now a rental, which I think they could easily rent it for $2300.

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AD says

HeadSet says

AD says
Assume they purchase the home with cash with total cost (includes closing cost) for $350,000

To be more accurate, you may want to deduct from the ROI the lost interest of using that cash. At 4.5% that would be about $16k, so the actual ROI would be $10,000 over what you would get by leaving the money in a one year CD.

My estimate was very conservative, so the 7.4% annual ROI is the worst expected return. Also it does not take into account the annual appreciation of the property.

But I agree that CD's now are an attractive asset class with an annual real or inflation-adjusted return of about 1.75%

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appreciation? we don’t got that here lol. we only got weather destroying it.

DeportLibtards says

Don't know their practices in regards to mortgages, but wouldn't touch a Pulte shit hole house. By default your house is worth shit, so you're upside down anyway when you buy.

DeportLibtards says

And this is just 2023 data...

Well in Feb 2025 the top 10% of USA households accounted for 50% of consumer spending. So this is just a continuation of what President Bill Clinton started when signing free trade agreements and "banking reforms.

https://www.marketplace.org/2025/02/24/higher-income-americans-drive-bigger-share-of-consumer-spending/#:~:text=Namely%2C%20pretty%20well%2Doff%20people,collecting%20data%20on%20this%20stuff.

deflation will never happen, america runs on inflation and fiat

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

deflation will never happen

I'm old enough to remember certain someone promising to bring prices down on the day one of his presidency.

WookieMan says

Don't know their practices in regards to mortgages, but wouldn't touch a Pulte shit hole house.

They are talking about Bill Pulte, Trump's new Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Not the house building firm.

DeportLibtards says

Bill Pulte

Yep, he's the grandson of the founder of Pulte Homes.

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AD says

2. Property Insurance HO-6: $1500 (the HOA covers the master insurance policy)

$6000 is middling for a $300k+ Florida dwelling. The Panhandle gets hit often by hurricanes. HOAs do NOT cover damage to townhouses, unless explicitly stated. The shared areas like the clubhouse or parking lot, sure. Just like in any single family community with an HOA.

For a multistory condo, damage to the exterior structure would be covered because the structure itself is shared, but any flood damage inside a first floor condo destroying the inside would not.

AD says

Here is my estimate on revenue:
1. Assume 180 days booked at a generous or very conservative rate of $200 a day , which is $36,000

Does the HOA allow short term rentals? And there's the AirBNB bust generally.

It's now very common for HOAs to limit rentals to a minimum of a month to protect long term residents from party kids and loud drunks. Not including any city/county regs

The average monthly rent in Panama City Beach is under $1700
https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/fl/panama-city-beach/

The other big FUN coming up is going to be cars.

It's gonna be a wild year, and expect Trump to be blamed for all of Biden's spendthrift ways and the Feds pumping by printer.

AmericanKulak says

Does the HOA allow short term rentals? And there's the AirBNB bust generally.

A vast majority of HOAs within 2 miles of the beach in Panama City Beach allow vacation rentals.

Also I stated a cheap rate of $200 a night for the 2 bedroom unit but that does not include the usual $30 a night cleaning fee with a 3 night minimum. That goes to the management company who pays its cleaners $17/hour.

DeportLibtards says

WookieMan says

Don't know their practices in regards to mortgages, but wouldn't touch a Pulte shit hole house.

They are talking about Bill Pulte, Trump's new Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Not the house building firm.

Well that's scary. Whether he's involved with the construction of homes or someone else in the firm, they build shit that 20% of people will default when they have to replace their windows in 3-5 years and other major items not under warranty anymore. Then they start missing payments after a $20k bill or rack up debt to finance the repairs. Likely house poor.

I dislike bankers, but someone from a building background at minimum should not be in charge of any finance department. Recipe for disaster.

AmericanKulak says

The Panhandle gets hit often by hurricanes.

Reason enough not to live there, much less pay outrageous amounts to live there! The only area there where I would even consider would be close to the AL border.

zzyzzx says

AmericanKulak says
The Panhandle gets hit often by hurricanes.

Reason enough not to live there, much less pay outrageous amounts to live there! The only area there where I would even consider would be close to the AL border.

Yes as it seems the east coast of Florida like Fort Lauderdale is not as at much risk as the Gulf of America coast of Florida

We have a 2016 built home and are 2 miles from the beach in the Florida Panhandle so we're not as much risk as shoreline homes such as in the Tampa area

We have HO-3 insurance that costs $1900 a year with a $5000 deductible, replacement value of $275,000, etc. Market value for our townhome is around $280,000.

And we are not in a FEMA flood zone (zone AE, etc)

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WookieMan says

I dislike bankers, but someone from a building background at minimum should not be in charge of any finance department. Recipe for disaster.

He's from a finance background.

Only the drop in prices is likely to happen.

DeportLibtards says

WookieMan says

I dislike bankers, but someone from a building background at minimum should not be in charge of any finance department. Recipe for disaster.

He's from a finance background.

Yes financing shit homes for his family to make money. That's a real winner you want latch to? I'll call Trump out when he's wrong. This is the wrong guy and will lead us back down to 2006-08. Finance is what destroys real estate.

WookieMan says

Yes financing shit homes for his family to make money. That's a real winner you want latch to?

YOU SAID "I dislike bankers, but someone from a building background at minimum should not be in charge of any finance department", not me.

Stop your projecting.

Panama City requires a $50 annual license and a 1% tax on gross income from AirBNBs.
https://excisehome.com/panamacitybeach/App_Themes/Default/HTML/Registration-Individual%20ShortTermRental.pdf

https://www.airbnb.com/help/article/2832

A 5% Tourist Development Tax is also levied by the County:
https://baytouristtax.com/

And 6% FL State Sales Tax must also be paid on top of Panama City Beach on rents less than 6 months duration:
https://floridarevenue.com/forms_library/current/gt800034.pdf

So about 12% tax so far

And any property rented out to more than 3 times a year is subject to a $250 setup fee from the City, plus an annual renewal of at least $75.
https://www.pcbfl.gov/departments/fire-department/fire-inspections/short-term-rentals

You must also surrender your rights as an Owner in order to short-term rent, allowing the City to Inspect The Property On Demand:
https://www.pcbfl.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/26090/638708062525500000

Full City Code here:
https://gladespcb.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Panama-City-Beach-FL-Code-of-Ordinances-1632-Short-Term-Rentals.pdf

Note there is a mandate that a person available to inspect the property or handle any issues be located within 1 hour of the property at all times, and any violations require a re-inspection at at least $150/incidence.

I mention all this because I like to know the worst in any scenario, makes me feel better knowing that for some reason.

Owners and Builders will try anything except cutting prices until there is no other option.



There are now 0 down builder incentives in Florida, Texas, and Tennessee as the largest number of new single families goes unsold since the Financial Crisis, and the 2nd highest inventories since the Crisis generally.



Meanwhile Hillsborough/Tampa, Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade are seeing an OUTFLOW of domestic residents.

DeportLibtards says

Only the drop in prices is likely to happen.

And since 3% mortgage rate averages aren't going to happen anytime soon, nor (sadly) wage gains, looks like it's pound down housing prices!

Owners, sell now at a big discount or forever hold your piece.

"Permanent Plateaus in Pricing since the COVID inflation" is not happening. Homeloaners are holding out for a hero, but those rates aren't gonna get cut in half anytime soon.

AmericanKulak says

Owners and Builders will try anything except cutting prices until there is no other option.

There are now 0 down builder incentives in Florida, Texas, and Tennessee as the largest number of new single families goes unsold since the Financial Crisis, and the 2nd highest inventories since the Crisis generally.

This is exactly why I don't like a "finance" guy with a builder family running the Federal Finance department or whatever the hell it's called. Some users just don't get it.

Also, this isn't nationwide. All the states you listed I've been calling out for a year. But whatever. Not directed at you. Just getting sick of the uneducated trolling. FL, TN, TX, ID, UT all have issues coming their way. Those are big markets with inflated prices that will drag down the median making it look like doomsday.

Paper money CA will lose a lot, but percentage wise it won't look that bad.

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Data from Professor Shiller's research

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AmericanKulak says

Note there is a mandate that a person available to inspect the property or handle any issues be located within 1 hour of the property at all times

It's not really enforced even in the Hood Rat or Section 8 resorts like Shores of Panama And Laketown Wharf, but my original post budgeted for a management company which also handles the cleaning.

Yes also the $200 a night is the base rate plus there is a total of 12% tax and also likely a $30 a night cleaning fee so it comes out to $254 a night to rent a 2 bedroom townhome within a couple minutes walk of the white sand beach and emerald water of the Gulf of America.

AD says

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Data from Professor Shiller's research

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those numbers match inflation in lockstep. fiat is fucking america

AD says

Yes also the $200 a night is the base rate plus there is a total of 12% tax and also likely a $30 a night cleaning fee so it comes out to $254 a night to rent a 2 bedroom townhome within a couple minutes walk of the white sand beach and emerald water of the Gulf of America.

More expensive than a hotel most of the year!

4 nights is just $500 at this beachfront townhouse going into the 4th of July
https://bit.ly/4hVqsG4

Or how about the 3rd week of August, before the kids start school, under $500!
https://bit.ly/3Y7YrDV

Or Thanksgiving Weekend, to visit Grandma? Also $500
https://bit.ly/4ciD74E

If you play on the Bookings site, there's tons of availability.

Waitaminute, that development looks familiar!

Oh, it's a neighboring building in the same townhome complex as...
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/164-Robin-Ln-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/42798385_zpid/?mmlb=g%2C25

Just $667 for 4 nights at this beachfront hotel (also just before the 4th)
http://bit.ly/41YPH5K

On the beach with two Queen beds and an ocean view, Holiday Inn reliability. Under $300/night most of the year, and no extra cleaning fee.
https://www.booking.com/hotel/us/holiday-inn-sunspree-resort-panama-city-beach.html

These townhomes are selling between the high 200s and mid 300s. If the ROI was so easy and robust, they wouldn't be so cheap.

I think there is a huge pullback from the COVID era and from AirBNBs generally. One of the big killers of short term were Karens. "Why didn't you put all the sheets in the washer?"

DeportLibtards says

WookieMan says

Yes financing shit homes for his family to make money. That's a real winner you want latch to?

YOU SAID "I dislike bankers, but someone from a building background at minimum should not be in charge of any finance department", not me.

Stop your projecting.

Projecting what? A guy from a housing family business isn't going to loosen finance standards??? I don't care if he is in the "finance" game as far as a career. He's going to juice it to sell more homes. Most bankers aren't involved in housing with huge family companies, let alone get a federal gig. They just loan and can't change regulations.

This isn't a good thing is the point. Someone in charge of housing finance has connections to a massive builder. Hmmmm, what could go wrong?

AmericanKulak says

More expensive than a hotel most of the year!

See, I wouldn't rent a town home for vacation. Individual house, yes. More expensive than a hotel, yes. I also have no interest in spending a week in a hotel with a family of 5. We generally have to get 2 rooms as well.

VRBO and AirBnb rentals also generally have everything you'd need like your own home. So two rooms at a hotel is comparable to a rental for my situation. As a couple or solo traveler a hotel makes sense.

Problem is with hotels is I don't want to go out to eat for every meal and can only refrigerate a case of beer and some snacks at a hotel with a college sized fridge is my bigger issue. Not having a freezer or an oven in a hotel is my biggest beef.

My chef buddy brings an Instantpot when we get together for concerts in Indiana and Michigan. That works, but we're driving. Ain't bringing that when flying. Although now my gears are turning. We get 10 checked bags free (2pp). Hard case Instantpot luggage? Would make hotel stays cheaper than going out to eat and probably getting the shits the next morning because the food is different. Might talk to my plastic mold injecting buddy tonight. I know I could market it. Everything else is soft bags for carrying it to your car.