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Wells Fargo's COO: "we never get into the chain of ownership"


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2007 Feb 12, 6:51am   13,416 views  128 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

How the banksters see you

Over the past 18 months or so of regular posting here, I've taken a considerable amount of flack for my criticism of MBS/CDO debt instruments as being a primary cause of the current housing bubble --and why I believe this bubble is so much larger in magnitude and global scope than previous relatively localized bubbles. In particular, I've criticized mortgage-backed securities as being a bankster stealth vehicle, used primarily for transferring mortgage default risk from lenders to main street (retail investors, pensioners & taxpayers). Some of the big "L" Libertarians disagree with me on this.

Some of you might be familiar with my mantra (even if you disagree with it): "Privatize Profits, Socialize Risk".

Well, last Friday my point-of-view just received some direct confirmation from a rather unlikely source: Wells Fargo's President and COO, John Stumpf. You may recall that Wells Fargo is the nation's largest sub-prime lender (see the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter for rankings).

Reuters: Mortgages are different story for Wells Fargo-COO

Here's an excerpt:

Wells Fargo President and COO John Stumpf said: "It's a very different story at Wells," citing the fact that most of the subprime mortgages it issues are sold to Wall Street banks which then assume the risks.

In the first half of 2006, 72 percent of the bank's subprime mortgages were co-issued with Wall Street firms, he said.

"They take those risks and they sell that off to investors so we never get into the chain of ownership," he said. "It's that simple."

There you have it straight from the horse's mouth: MBSs exist primarily for risk-transference to protect the lenders --"it's just that simple".

Oh, and after they repackage and sell these loans to "Wall Street firms" (think Fidelity, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, etc.), do you think those firms personally keep them on the company's books or re-sell them downstream as fast as possible to retail sucke-- er, investors (think 401k plans, pension funds, grandma, sister, etc.)? I think we can finally can close the book on this particular "debate" now ;-).[1] [2]

[1] In light of recent information from Mike, FAB, Randy, etc., I am reconsidering my postition. If most of the default/repurchase risk is concentrated in the lowest MBS tranches, and these tranches are basically off-limits to retail investors and pension funds, then the only people getting screwed are hedge funds and FCBs. If that's indeed the case, then more power to Mr. Stumpf & Co.

[2] Another poster (News) recently (2/22/07) pointed out that the Amaranth Hedge Fund blow-up last September cost the San Diego County employees' pension fund $87 million in losses. While this was related to natural gas trades --not MBS/CDO-- this example illustrates how my original contention about retail investors being exposed to HF/derivatives risk might turn out to be true. Isolated data point, or an early indication of an emerging trend? The next few years will tell the tale, as $Trillions in option-ARM and I/O mortgages start resetting.

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing

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76   sobs   2007 Feb 14, 2:58am  

One more thing. In my experience, it takes a pretty mean cat to go after a rat of any reasonable size. Count on vet bills if you use a cat. The classic ratters are terriers and/or mongoose (gooses/geese, I don't know).

Is the landlord's policy "no pets" or "no cats"? A mongoose would be incredibly chic, no?

77   Claire   2007 Feb 14, 3:06am  

Punchbowl - we are allowed our dog (named specifically in the lease), but no cats or other pets.

78   DinOR   2007 Feb 14, 3:09am  

"very thinly disguised deposition"

Yep, that'd be about right. I worked for a small shop and it was the unwritten policy. If you lost them money, they would sue. If you made them money, they would sue. There is no winning.

Btw, I've heard if a rat can get his head through, then he can get through. We used to have skunks and that really sucked! :(

79   Sylvie   2007 Feb 14, 3:19am  

That is why I think it's invaluable to have a cat in residence. I've had my dumpster kitty for six years. Most places are feline friendly I've had no problem and they keep any invader critters at bay. I don't mind the deposit places charge it's nominals compared to the companionship. She's outlasted many a boyfriend.

80   Boston Transplant   2007 Feb 14, 3:30am  

There is a good article in the FT today (apologies if this has been posted before).

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0e9f6a24-bbd0-11db-afe4-0000779e2340.html

"The ABX index for bonds, rated BBB-, has soared about 300bp higher since last week's news, reflecting a perceived increase in risk, and pushing the index to a record level above 960bp, signalling an alarming rise in investor concern over the potential losses on 2006 mortgage bonds."

Can someone explain what the relation of the ABX index (ABX.he) is to MBS in general? Is it a good representation of the sub-prime tranche?

If I am understanding correctly, this index has moved from 6% to 9% (from an even lower basis over the last year or so). Is there somewhere I can see this plotted? (Yahoo finance doesn't seem to work).

81   Sylvie   2007 Feb 14, 3:33am  

C-span 2 is naming who are the top tax break recipients. It tells you who bought this current.administration it's so telling of the power of super wealth to buy favor. It's sickening...

82   SFWoman   2007 Feb 14, 3:44am  

DinOR,

No offense taken. My husband said if he were a landlord he'd never rent to lawyers (by which I think he means litigators and sole practitioner types).

83   Peter P   2007 Feb 14, 4:03am  

Still, am I foolish to let people take full commisions? I think I’m not.

You get what you paid for. Trust your instincts.

Not advice of any kind.

84   DinOR   2007 Feb 14, 4:27am  

Boston Transplant,

There are so many other posters here more qualified to address your question but since everybody's out to lunch I'll give it a shot.

Is it a good representation? Well NOW it is! The risk premium was never factored in properly before and now (I) believe it is correctly priced. The only link I do have is to my firm's internal bond desk and they're kind of sensitive about that. A little help? Oh btw, if I attend the webinar about CMO's I'll get CE credits! How timely!

I did take exception to the FT's depecition of "perceived increase in risk" though. Is this like when we have a guy with bloody finger prints all over the crime scene and we are bound by law to refer to him/her as "the alleged killer"?

85   DinOR   2007 Feb 14, 4:36am  

depiction?

86   SFWoman   2007 Feb 14, 4:45am  

GC,

I think if your Realtor works hard for you and gets the best price (for you) then he's earned his fee. I'd rather pay the standard fee to someone willing to do hard work than a discount fee to someone who is going to try to unload the condo at whatever price so they can quickly move on to the next deal.

I read in the WSJ today that Fremont and a few other firms will not be offering piggyback mortgages anymore because the secondary market for them has dried up. This is anticipated to put quite a crimp in the sub-prime market.

87   lunarpark   2007 Feb 14, 4:50am  

Also, the girl in my office who is buying a place now is currently living in low income housing. Ugh, I'm just so annoyed. Everyone here is congratulating her for buying (at 7x her combined income).

Ok, sorry, rant over.

88   Boston Transplant   2007 Feb 14, 4:57am  

Thanks DinOr. I don't fully understand why the value of this (or other) indexes would not be publicly available. Why are they different than a stock or mutual fund? (I'm not complaining per se, just trying to understand why).

89   Claire   2007 Feb 14, 5:46am  

spike66 - we vaccinate our dog for lepto already, so he should be safe. I am going to be chasing our landlord to sort this anyway. Unfortunately he's out of town at the minute.

90   SFWoman   2007 Feb 14, 5:51am  

GC,

I saw my Realtor friend sell two neighbors' places. She went through the houses (which were both pristine) with a fine toothed comb. She had them do tiny repairs nobody would probably notice, but cumutively might have made the place look a little less amazing. She was inspecting all the work the handymen/painters did, and had one neighbor, who had antiques, remove them and stage the place. I asked her why, they were gorgeous 18th century. She said that believe it or not Pottery Barn or Restoration Hardware is the look that sells in the $1-$5 million market. So, she spent a bit of time making sure that the places looked as amazing as they could.

Then, she brought over a lot of clients the first day that the places were ready to sell. She doesn't like open houses, but will have them if she has to. She said she's prefer to keep a list of Realtors/clients and what people have told her they are looking for and then deal directly with them instead of having open houses with people just milling through.

I guess I would look for someone with an eye for detail, who has done a lot of sales in your area, and isn't a lazy butt just reading magazines at open houses (my utter Realtor pet peeve. I'm not giving you 3% of ____ for reading the new Vogue). The attention to detail will probably result in a slightly better sale price, which translates into a relatively small increase for the Realtor, but a larger amount for you.

91   DinOR   2007 Feb 14, 6:19am  

CB,

Sorry, I was just fresh out of analogies! :(

I "could" have been talking about the white guy in NC that was "visiting his parents" at the time of his wife's bludgeoning?

It's just that indices are supposed to give us some idea of what to anticipate. ABX.he didn't tank until well after all of this was made public. We just may bring StuckinBA over to the PPT yet!

92   Different Sean   2007 Feb 14, 6:22am  

The rats must like a nice warm engine bay in winter time... They are garage rats, maybe if you poison them in the garage, they will die in there. Or does the garage have plasterboard walls too?

Aren't there drowning traps also? hmmmm

If you think you've got it bad, have a look at this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LMxhc8WwGU
(US version to reduce culture shock...)

93   Different Sean   2007 Feb 14, 6:45am  

The three important urban rodents are Norway rats, roof rats and house mice. The Norway rat, also called the brown, wharf or sewer rat, can be found virtually everywhere humans live. They are attracted to areas that provide a wealth of hiding places and easy access to food. The roof rat, an agile climber, is more at home in the city, with its wires and tall buildings.

SF Environment: Rats and Mice

94   Boston Transplant   2007 Feb 14, 6:47am  

Thanks Portmgr. So are you confirming that, for example, the Vanguard Total Bond Fund (VBMFX) has no sub-prime as part of its portfolio? I've copied the breakdown of the fund below...

Distribution By Issuer (% of fund) as of 12/31/2006:
Asset-Backed 1.3%
Commercial Mortgage-Backed 5.0%
Finance 8.4%
Foreign 2.8%
Government Mortgage-Backed 35.1%
Industrial 9.0%
Other 0.2%
Treasury/Agency 36.3%
Utilities 1.9%
Total 100.0%

Distribution By Credit Quality* (% of fund) as of 12/31/2006:
Aaa 79.4%
Aa 4.8%
A 8.3%
Baa 7.4%

95   Boston Transplant   2007 Feb 14, 6:48am  

Shoot, it got cut off:

Distribution By Credit Quality* (% of fund) as of 12/31/2006
Aaa 79.4%
Aa 4.8%
A 8.3%
Baa 7.4%

96   Boston Transplant   2007 Feb 14, 6:49am  

I suck. "Less than" signs may be the problem...

Distribution By Credit Quality* (% of fund) as of 12/31/2006
Aaa 79.4%
Aa 4.8%
A 8.3%
Baa 7.4%
less than Baa 0.1%
Total 100.0%

97   MtViewRenter   2007 Feb 14, 6:51am  

If you think you’ve got it bad, have a look at this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LMxhc8WwGU
(US version to reduce culture shock…)

Interesting vid. So what breed of cat do you need to catch those critters?

98   Allah   2007 Feb 14, 7:00am  

The rats must like a nice warm engine bay in winter time… They are garage rats, maybe if you poison them in the garage, they will die in there. Or does the garage have plasterboard walls too?

Aren’t there drowning traps also? hmmmm

If you think you’ve got it bad, have a look at this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LMxhc8WwGU
(US version to reduce culture shock…)

I'm not expert on rats, but wouldn't they go back to their nest before they die. I would think it would take a while before it killed them.

99   astrid   2007 Feb 14, 7:00am  

What if you bred a Monty Python killer rabbit with a Flemish Giant, you'll get something deadly to, ergh, rats.

100   astrid   2007 Feb 14, 7:02am  

How do you BA homeowners deal with cockroaches and termites?

101   Peter P   2007 Feb 14, 7:07am  

How do you BA homeowners deal with cockroaches and termites?

Cockroaches are generally smaller in the Bay Area. These are dark creatures nonetheless.

Rats are fine. More toys for my cats. LOL

102   DinOR   2007 Feb 14, 7:09am  

Portmgr,

O.K, O.K so you know all about MBS!

Right now the BA is sinking and suffering from an infestation of mutant rats! Uh... so can you help us out w/that or what?

Just kidding! :) Thanks and post often!

103   Peter P   2007 Feb 14, 7:11am  

Mutant rats? We need mutant cats to counter!

104   astrid   2007 Feb 14, 7:13am  

Giant killer rabbits are obviously the way to go...

105   Peter P   2007 Feb 14, 7:17am  

Giant killer rabbits are obviously the way to go…

How about a Were-rabbit?

106   MtViewRenter   2007 Feb 14, 7:41am  

How about a Were-rabbit?

Won't you just make a bunch of Were-rats?

107   Claire   2007 Feb 14, 7:59am  

The rats - if poisoned - would go to their nest to die - but where is that exactly? The walls, under the house or in the roof? And yes our garage does have plaster board.

108   Claire   2007 Feb 14, 8:01am  

Snakes, might work - but I hate snakes!

109   Peter P   2007 Feb 14, 8:01am  

You should be nice to your landlords.

110   Peter P   2007 Feb 14, 8:02am  

but I hate snakes!

I love snake soup.

111   astrid   2007 Feb 14, 8:44am  

I like snakes, both as food and as garden critters...as long as they're not capable of killing me. They're wonderful for all kinds of garden rodent problems.

Snakes are delicious deep fried, like very bony frog.

112   astrid   2007 Feb 14, 8:50am  

Aren't there good rat catching dog breed? It seems to me that large rats are about the size of foxes, so wouldn't a fox hound be a good ratter?

113   Peter P   2007 Feb 14, 8:58am  

Aren’t there good rat catching dog breed?

Maine Coons. But they are cats.

114   Ed S.   2007 Feb 14, 9:10am  

Boston Transplant,

Here's a article from Grant's Interest Rate Observer (from the free section of the homepage). It's a pretty thorough discussion of CDO's etc.

BTW, Grant's is a fantastic (albeit expensive) publication

http://tinyurl.com/2tswdx

Enjoy!

115   Claire   2007 Feb 14, 9:22am  

Terriers are known for being Houdini's and are master diggers (under fences), I wouldn't want to chase after them all the time, it's bad enough when our dog decides to jump the fence (6 foot) - he even uses the trash can to help him over!

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