patrick.net

I looked at that site, and at least most of them are saying “Hey, offer below asking! It’s not a seller’s market!”

Well yeah, it's definetly not a sellers market, but they are saying like $10k - $20k below asking, big deal!

Even people who don’t think (or know about) it’s a bubble at least realize that prices are too high right at this moment. (Some of them probably still expect their house to start ATMing for them in the next year or two.)

Seems that way.

One of the couple's even posted a link to my site; you will notice that everyone that shrugged off the fact that prices are going to fall are couple's that already bought. :lol:

I thought that was in El Salvador?

Hey all,
For a few good Monday morning chuckles, check out this cnn piece:

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/real_estate/0702/gallery.tycoon_updates/index.html

Apparently, they profiled a bunch of real estate "tycoons"-in-the-making back in 2005, and this is a follow-up piece. It's amazing how every one of them is either unable to sell and/or trying to rent their "investment" properties. These are 6 answers to the question we kept asking, "who the hell are all these 'investors' who continue to buy real estate. They apparently are now some of the ones left holding the bag.

My favorite is Sky Minor, the "rock musician/real estate investor."

From that same link:

I agree. The housing prices will not plummet because face it, LI is a popular place to live. It is near NYC and that will always keep LI booming (unlesss some sort of natural disaster strikes.) Its not like a house is going to be 500K today and 300K next year.

This is the typical Long Island mindset of those who have already swallowed the pill! Sound familiar?

The people who are losing out are those who bought in 2004/2005/part of 2006 at the height of the craziness and are now trying to sell (and make a profit!).

Yeah, those are the people who are losing out, we got our house for $10k less! We are lucky! :lol:

My favorite bit from the mortage news posts today :

Cassandra Grant of Hartford said she has been having trouble getting a mortgage to buy a home, because her credit score is 585 and her income is below $30,000 a year.

Well, at least lenders have wised up A LITTLE.

Dear Cassandra Grant,
If you want a house, please do the following :
1) Stop using your credit cards. Pay them off completely. Once they are paid off completely, then you may use them for small purchases that get paid off at the end of the month. No more carrying balances on your credit cards.
2) Once your cards are paid off, start putting what you USED to have to spend on paying your credit card bills into savings. Buy CDs, open a money market account, or SOMETHING.
3) Repeat 2 until you have 20% for a reasonable priced home in your area that you can afford on your salary from the job you can reasonably expect to keep. Given that you're 51 at step one, you may be 55 or 56 by now. In which case, calculate what you'll be able to afford when you no longer have a job and are living on Soc Sec benifits, unless you want to work until you're 86, you better aim for a house you can pay off quickly, which means the total price had better be less than 3x your salary. I'd aim for 2x, and sock every dime into paying it off.
4) Finally, you can buy that house.

SP, DinOR, rat patrol, PAR, Stuckin BA, Headset, allah & others,

Thank you for your tireless Troll-fighting efforts. We seem to getting a bit more traffic here today. Perhaps the pool of new suckers (and commissions) is drying up, and our REIC butt-buddies "Nigel" & "OpinionsPlease" have nothing better to do?

SP, DinOR, rat patrol, PAR, Stuckin BA, Headset, allah & others,

Thank you for your tireless Troll-fighting efforts. We seem to getting a bit more traffic here today. Perhaps the pool of new suckers (and commissions) is drying up, and our REIC butt-buddies “Nigel” & “OpinionsPlease” have nothing better to do?

Trolls are fun; I find them very amusing in fact they're one of the reasons I like to visit this blog :)

How is everyone doing that is selling their home?

And the winner for the Most Serial Re-Finances is......?

Every time that roll that paper over they're adding another 3 to 5K + in fees? Probably at a minimum. Then when this guy goes to sell that will need to be figured into his asking price, of course.

Anyone here following the Rose Garden area of San Jose? I just received this forwarding from a realtor:

> Dear all,
>
> Just a quick note about a significant price reduction on my listing
> at 1829 McDaniel Ave. The owners are clearly motivated and the
> price is now reflecting this.
>
> Please pass the info on to your friends and family who might be
> interested in this property.
>
> Here are the details for a quick refresher.
> http://www.agentbohl.com/pw/portfolio.html

The owners of this house paid $850k for it 9/15/05 (currently asking $995k AFTER a $54k reduction). Zillow (for what it’s worth) estimates it’s worth $907k. Laughable, is that the current owner bought at the absolute peak of prices, but now thinks they can unload it for $145k more than they paid less than 2 years ago! Hilarious! Please…

Greenspan warns of likely U.S. recession

Greenspan also said he has seen no economic spillover effects from the slowdown in the U.S. housing market.

"We are now well into the contraction period and so far we have not had any major, significant spillover effects on the American economy from the contraction in housing," he said.

OT, but Alan Greedspan retired and passed the "baton" (a lit dynamite stick) to Bernanke a year ago. So why can't he just move to Leisure World, wear funny hats, hike his pant up to his chest, and go fishing like everyone else?

Just shut the fuck up already!

OT, but Alan Greedspan retired and passed the “baton” (a lit dynamite stick) to Bernanke a year ago. So why can’t he just move to Leisure World, wear funny hats, hike his pant up to his chest, and go fishing like everyone else?

HARM, It's called CYA...

skibum,

"Otherwise it's been uneventful"

You mean the part where your specuvestment rental was televised on an episode of Cops as the front window got blown out by a shot-gun wielding maniacal ex-boyfriend as the "pork chopper" circled over head?

lunarpark,

Again, I'm just left to wonder aloud as to the logic of some of these purchases? I suppose it could be true that there were some burning urgency where this might be explained but it appears this is nothing more than a flip gone flop and desperation not to become a bag holder.

Net of commissions they'd barely break even. So 17 months after moving in and even prior to attaining tax free nirvana they're ready to pull the plug? Sheesh.

I dunno why you guys bash Greenspan. In a brilliant bit of maneuvering, he took what would have been a horrible recession and postponed it for 5-6 years and pushed the majority of the damage onto the middle and lower middle classes via a massive credit bubble. These people obligingly bought us out of that recession.

Now that the economy is on less shaky ground, it's time to salute those selfless people whose SUV's and home ATM machines kept us going. Salute them, and take their houses away.

DinOR,

Logic? Logic?? What is this logic you speak of? :)

Looks like there are two other houses for sale on the same street as the one I posted:

3br/2ba listed 2118 sq ft listed for $1,098,000 (Zestimate $943k). Sale history:
11/15/2004: $825,000
05/07/2001: $725,000
05/14/1998: $399,500 (Wow.)

The other has no sale history available. They are asking $1.2 million for a 3/3 1660 sq ft.

Wake me when it's over...

Is Rose Garden really that nice?

I remember it is very close to the flight path of SJC and it is quite noisy when wind blows from the south.

"Is Rose Garden really that nice?"

No.

Does anyone know what the school district is like? I cannot imagine these asking prices for that area.

Rose Garden is a pretty nice area, but the schools aren't that great. At least that's what I understand.

SFBubbleBuyer Says:

> My favorite bit from the mortgage news posts today :
> Cassandra Grant of Hartford said she has been having trouble
> getting a mortgage to buy a home, because her credit score is 585
> and her income is below $30,000 a year.
> Well, at least lenders have wised up A LITTLE.

Last year it would have been easy for her to get $500K with a stated income neg am IO loan…

> Dear Cassandra Grant, If you want a house,
> please do the following :
> 1) Stop using your credit cards. (and other good ideas)…

While SFBubbleBuyer gives some good advice my advice to Cassandra is to:

1) Find a way to make more than $15/hour before you think about buying a home. If you can’t figure out how to get paid more than $15/hour you are not ready to buy a home (I pay the people that clean apartments for me more than $15 an hour and the only guy I know that makes less than $15 an hour is the (possibly slightly retarded guy) that sweeps and dumps the laundry room trash at one of my buildings)…

SFBubbleBuyer,

You've gotta check out "Real Financial Hero's" on youtube!

Here's to YOU Mister and Mrs. Too Much Home Buyer!

Rose Garden is a pretty nice area, but the schools aren’t that great. At least that’s what I understand.

I do want a nice area with bad schools. But I want something with an average age of 60+.

lunarpark,

Well I don't know what those quick turn-around buyers think they're accomplishing but I happen to believe it speaks volumes about the thread we did regarding the impact of the internet on the bubble!

People see stuff like Zillow etc. along w/flippersintrouble and they're getting real time feedback. I mean, how can so many loanowners all be thinking the same thing at the same time?

Allah's link on Long Island showed one young gal that had tried without success to sell her home last fall and this spring she said something like THIRTY people listed the same week she was going to re-list! Coincidence?

"But I want something with an average age of 60+."

The people or the house?

I was just thinking today, HUD reports that the median (household) income of Santa Clara to be $97,100.

Is it possible that's skewed lower by all the Pre-Prop 13'ers who paid off their $70k houses, and now just live by refi'ing?

Could it be that the median income of people who are in the market to buy, is significantly higher?

The people or the house?

People... :)

Could it be that the median income of people who are in the market to buy, is significantly higher?

Of course.

Nigel, Nigel, Nigel

When you first started posting here your arguments were fairly reasonable. Over time you just slid down the same familiar path of REIC cheerleading. Then you're posting links here to your bullish blog and I guess that's all fine and well but you're more or less admitting that you ARE attempting to "convert" the undecided, no?

I just hope the readers who are undecided, like the person whose comments started this thread, will be able to see the alternative points of view that I bring to the discussion.

Huh?

You keep calling names and making personal attacks, but I don’t think it helps sell your position any better.

Actually, I find the name-calling sells HARM's position even BETTER. At least he, unlike you, has a sense of humor. Judging from your posts and your blog, you need to lighten up a bit.

Look, I would love to buy. Today. I have owned before in the Bay Area. But it’s kind of like walking into a clothing store and seeing all those nice shirts that are currently on the sale rack for 10% off. Somehow you just know that next week they are going to be 20% off.

That analogy breaks down, for me at least, because every time that happens, the size that I want always disappears first. I'm tempted to move to Houston because the size I want is always available on sale there. (For unfortunate reasons.)

Anyone see Matt Lanning's blog today?

http://www.sfhomeblog.com/2007/02/inventory-continues-to-decline.html

Now, granted he is a Realtor(R), but his blog has to date been pretty level headed and not "OMG BUY NOW"-ish. And he hates Sup. Daly - which I agree with.

He had this to say today:
The MLS hit its 2006 active inventory peak in October, and other than a couple of weeks of increases at the beginning of January 2007, we see yet another week of lower active inventory today.

For comparison, today's active inventory of 955 properties is lower than ANY WEEK in 2006 (other than the week after Christmas).

What's going on in SF?

A new record for the BayArea Craigslist Reduce-O-Meter was reached this past weekend. There were 126 "reduced" listings for the two day period of Feb. 23-4. Signs of seller distress are still moderate.

I hate to side on the other with this one, but there is no 1099 on non-recourse loans in CA (the million dollar call option, as he says -- no downside except your wrecked credit :-) ). Of course refis and seconds don't qualify as purchase money loans. I still say non-recourse will be the big story of 2007 -- the scandal that has yet to see the light of day. "Why yes we can get you out of that ARM, let us help refinance your mortgage". Clanking shackles, dim stagelights.

PAR - are they building any new SFHs in PA? As BA population increases, I have a hard time seeing how homes will not continue to command outrageous premiums compared to their townhouse/condo brethren (not to say their won't be a slide or decrease across the board in all RE types). Hope you can get a SFH at a "comfortable" price.

What’s going on in SF?

Lower inventory + Lower acticities = More anticipations

The market is waiting.

Bork Says:

> I wonder if someone can explain this to me. Friend of
> mine told me a story about his friend. This guy cannot
> afford a mortgage on a decent house in BA, so he,
> together with his relative, a mortgage broker(?) developed
> a schema which allows them to have “cheap mortgages”.
> They sign up the guy for a mortgage with options and low
> “teaser” rates which are valid for 3-6 months.

This is not only legal but very common in the residential lending industry since it is easy for a mortgage broker to make up to $50K per year in fees from idiots like your friend who do not understand that the total amount of money they owe keeps growing as the fees (and probably some negative amortization) keeps getting added to the loan balance to keep the “payment low”…

eburbed,

The only thing Matt Lanning is missing is pom-poms! :)

I mean his closing comment about "where are all the doom and gloomers" just b/c there is a lull in the growth of inventory? Unfortunately for him this stale mate DOES spell doom for realtors.

For any bubble observer (bull OR bear) to have any credibility w/me they really need to look at the big picture and THEN make market specific comments. Selectively ignoring the FL, LV, AZ and SD markets along w/a subprime meltdown b/c it doesn't fit your agenda isn't scoring any points.

eburbed Says:

> Anyone see Matt Lanning’s blog today?
> He had this to say today:
> The MLS hit its 2006 active inventory peak in October,
> and other than a couple of weeks of increases at the
> beginning of January 2007, we see yet another week of
> lower active inventory today.
> For comparison, today’s active inventory of 955 properties
> is lower than ANY WEEK in 2006 (other than the week after
> Christmas).
> What’s going on in SF?

The sellers of condos are not putting them in the MLS this year like they were last year (and the year before) when they were selling fast.

Below is the take from SocketSite as of February 12th 2007:

“As it stands, in addition to the roughly 325 San Francisco condominiums that are listed and available for sale on the San Francisco MLS, we estimate that there are approximately 350 new condominiums that are not listed, but are currently available for purchase and immediate occupancy. These condos include unlisted inventory in buildings ranging in size from The Glassworks to The Beacon.
We also estimate that there are currently an additional 1,050 available condominiums that are actively competing for the attention of buyers and accepting non-refundable deposits in sales offices throughout San Francisco (examples include The Infinity, Heritage on Fillmore, and Arterra). And within the next six months, we expect to see an additional 2,450 condominiums begin marketing, accepting deposits, and competing for sales as well (think The Potrero, Symphony Towers, and The Bay).
Looking forward to the second half of 2007, we see an additional 1,575 new condominiums that are likely to start marketing/selling before the end of the year (or relatively soon thereafter). And for 2008/2009, we see 4,000+ units that have a shot of making it to market (and 2,000+ that will likely fall by the wayside).”

Another reason is that the rules changed requiring a unit to be off the market (out of the MLS) for longer before it could go back in as a “HOT NEW LISTING”.

SF Realtors are still trying to sell hundreds of homes not in the MLS while waiting for the “Spring Bounce” when they will go back in to the MLS.

EBurbed...

This was the best part of his blog "Having worked in San Francisco real estate since 1998..."

Any realtor who's been in realestate in the bay area since 1988 I might be inclined to listen to for bottom calling. This guy has never seen a bust. He's never seen a dead cat bounce. He doesn't discuss if the homes being off the market is from sales or from people pulling them. Declining sales all last year and declining availables != fewer houses in the 'potiential' market, especially given the 'churn' of the last few years and the subprime problems that could be springing up. The 'spring market' where sellers expect more buyers to be in the market isn't here yet. Let's see what the availables look like over the next 3 months. The 1 trillion ARM reset of 2007 is just getting started.

Baxter, thanks for the excellent analysis.

Is it true that many Indian techies are savvy about Vedic Astrology? That must be an advantage because most native techies here do not believe in Astrology.

DinOR,

Loved "Real Financial Heroes"! Must have been done by someone who reads this blog. I loved the scene with Mr. & Mrs. FB eating Top Ramen on their granite countertops.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxylHPnoloI&NR