patrick.net

San Francisco RENTER Says:

“Remember, most talented individuals who work at the top banks and money management firms finish by 25.” –HITMAN

Keep it coming you motherfucker. I studied for 2 hours last night and I will study for 3 tonight after getting this motivation from you. Keep it coming.

Ha, ha, haa!
Yes! Passion! Fire up the grill!
San Fran Renter knows the American way: use anger as motivation!
Blaze a new trail!
One is never too old!

Hitman is just making San Fran train harder...

I agree that it is a nice place with good weather (cannot stand humidity) and good opportunities. But heart of America’s economic engine? That is too much.

Does America have an economic engine anymore?

seattledude Says:

January 31st, 2006 at 3:25 pm

HITMAN- you said: So now we have, no change in real estates, rising employment, and rising wages. Tell me why you think the market is going to crash again?

Dude employment is not rising and neither are wages. Wages of CEO’s maybe but not the rest of us, so i don’t know what you’re talking about.
Besides people who are already rich or CEOs that are rich, rich people in general don’t have mortgages.

11 permanent employees lost their job in my office today at Honeywell.
I'm a temp, but feel sad for them.

Other jobs have gone to Mexico and India, according to my manager.

Great economy: Honeywell's profits are over a billion and US jobs are being cut or outsourced.

This is reality!

So fuck you, fuck you, fuck you. You’re a jerk and I can swear like a sailor right along with the rest of you.

Huh?

I suffer from catatonic tourette syndrome. Only my manifestation of that disease causes me to obsessivly utter words like "uncorrelated", "in real terms" and "econometric".

Hi All,
Been a while.

I Guess one of the benefits of inventory run up will be that RE agents won't be knocking on my door to see if I want to sell...

Do miss that though as I used to have fun trying to sell the landlords property :)

It will be very hard for the RE crowd to put positive spin on data if there is no data released to the media.

I give up. Can’t anybody here understand I was just trying to inject a little humor earlier? I am getting the point that I don’t belong here, so I’ll leave.

Please visit our "Huh?" thread before you decide. ;)

I’m tired of being the big bad homeowner and getting bashed on this board for nothing. I also apologize to everyone for my uncalled for reaction earlier.

Actually, many on this broad are homeowners. In the last "blog party", I was pretty much the only renter there. :)

We certainly do not bash homeowners.

…. ummmm …… is it wrong that reading the last lines of Linda’s post turned me on a little??

Huh?

The song does not make much sense, but the words go something like ‘Don’t worry, if you were a troll I would delete your comments’ and “we just want comments that respect other commentors’.

I said these words, but...

1) I do not own this current thread, it is up to the threadmaster to decide
2) We determine who is a troll

By the way, the song does not need to make sense at all. Take it or leave it.

How many Realtors does it take to change a lightbulb?

Ans. Ten. One to put in the bulb and nine to talk about how much better things were in 2005.

if this post is not removed the hypocracy of the chronic commenters is far worse than the observed prediliction to delete comments that mock the Patrickists.

Well... I'm the threadmaster, folks.
I had thought about deleting the entire F-U / woody exchange, but frankly I was too busy laughing my ass off!

Btw, I prefer "stiffie".
Lighten up, people... :lol: :twisted: :lol:

There is a fair amount of insighful, reasonable people here, you being one of them, but you just confirmed that your notion of “we”, and the Patrickist notion of “we” deligitimizes what can sometimes be a decent exchange of ideas.

But... _we_ are borg, resistance is futile. :)

Let alone have someone who may end up with a CFA charter use the phrase “gradual crash” (half joking - see you at the next party if you will have a troll like me).

Well, if we can have a housing balloon... we can definitely have a gradual crash.

In the last "blog party", there were actually quite a few "soft landing" theorists. (Jack, Jimbo) We had a great time! :)

I apologize if I sounded harsh to you earlier. :)

What is the difference between a light bulb and a home buyer?

Ans. You can unscrew the lightbulb.

On a serious note, I generally prefer NOT to be in the business of censorship.

Just to clarify, different threadmasters have different takes on this subject. In comparison, I delete trollish comments according to my instinct.

PeterP, the same guy who a couple days ago said
The future is the only thing that matters.

I said, "I need no justification for my actions/decisions because past decisions are no longer relevant. Only the future matters."

I did not say that history does not repeat. :)

Can we get a thread of just famous predictions, contradictions and whacky comments by fanatic Patrickists?

You can do that but no one will care.

Just to clarify, different threadmasters have different takes on this subject. In comparison, I delete trollish comments according to my instinct.

Ok, just to satisfy the Puritans in the blogosphere (*cough*, Peter P, *cough*), I have gone ahead and replaced Linda's profanity above with more socially acceptable euphemisms in bold.

Happy now???

HARM and PeterP, thanks for comments, clarifications.

I am enjoying the exchange.

You are welcomed. I appreciate contrarian opinions, although sometimes I can get too excited.

I am actually learning a lot about market actions from these slow motion housing bubble dynamics. The stock market is too fast/efficient to observe. The housing market is a great learning aid.

Ok, just to satisfy the Puritans in the blogosphere (*cough*, Peter P, *cough*), I have gone ahead and replaced Linda’s profanity above with more socially acceptable euphemisms in bold.

Huh?

Speaking of which, the Huh thread is still growing. There is no such thing as a thread bubble. :)

Ditto (to Peter P's comment about contrarian views being welcome here).

Ditto (to Peter P’s last comment)

Ditto to the huh comment?

@HARM, Your substitutions in bold are hilarious.

@Peter P --You posted too quick for me. Refresh your screen.

@Unalloyed --my pleasure :mrgreen:
And thank you for all the Realt-Whore jokes. Keep 'em coming!

He did a survey - and we know how reliable those are - but anyway, the survey interestingly shed light on the idea of “reserve price” psychology in home ownership — ah debtorship that is.

True, but it takes a few transactions to make a new price level. Proud owners may stick to their reserve prices, but they may not be able to sell either.

I absolutely agree that people are irrational. I love it because it means we can prey upon them. However, do not underestimate the power of fear, the most powerful emotion of all.

True, but it takes a few transactions to make a new price level. Proud owners may stick to their reserve prices, but they may not be able to sell either.

Bingo. I once found a stat on what % of total homes turn over each year on average. Can't recall the exact figure, but I'm positive it was a single digit number. All it takes is a few thousand panicked amateur "investors" with high burn-rates in each city, all heading for the exits at the same time to really turn the market upside-down. Whether or not most other non-motivated owners decide to stick to their reserve prices really won't matter.

I don't know about 50% by Dec 2007, though --that's pretty optimistic (or is it 'pessimistic'?)

I don’t know about 50% by Dec 2007, though –that’s pretty optimistic (or is it ‘pessimistic’?)

Some very leveraged crap condos will lose that much in value.

Good SFHs should hold up a lot better.

Looks like the Google dot-bomb finally exploded!

BTW: Goldman sachs is touting the stock. they say its going to 600 $. Goldman sachs also say buy google on dips. This according to CNBc.

Can anybody reseach and see if Goldman sachs is selling google. while they actively tout the stock so joe public will be bag hoders again?

Can any body explain why google is worth so much?

PS: what happeed to deovindice?

Linda Says:

"I give up. Can’t anybody here understand..."

Yes. I understand. Hang in there. Don't run away so quickly.

If someone angers you, choose a few tasty words, and then
use them like a stick to beat him senseless like a mangy dog.

See how surfer-X does it.

As the housing market begins to transmorgrify into Mr. Heid, the anger
level of some on this board will begin to heat up.

Enjoy the fireworks by lighting a fire under somone's ass!

"PS: what happeed to deovindice?"

I don't know, but I miss him too.

What's the difference between a snake and a Realtorâ„¢ ?

When you run over a snake, you don't back up to make sure it's dead.

DinOR:

I see where you're coming from.

Good post.

"I thought you can use financial software development as experience only if you had registered before 2005 or so. I will check. Thanks!
(I used to work on some financial reporting tools, not sure if it counts)" --Peter P

Peter,
I'm not sure if "pure" Dev work counts for the charter even if you're building a purely financial reporting program. What DOES count is implementing and servicing a software solution for any financial institutution. For example, the company I currently work for makes software platforms that run the gamut from hedge fund management solutions to pure reporting solutions for small independant RIA's. We also offer out-sourced solutions for almost all of our software contracts whereby we will install, run, and maintain the software as well as all of the financial firms proprietary data. It is this kind of software servicing that does count as work experience for the charter because it is lumped into the "financial services."

So my advice to you would be to use your Development experience along with the CFA to move toward a more financially-oriented software company. There are a lot of them. And the key is that you don't want to do purely Dev work, you will also need to get your hands a bit dirtier and delve into operations and/or consulting.

Trust me, there is a LOT of demand for people who have finance knowlege and Dev knowledge. In my experience most folks are one or the other, i.e. most programmers don't know jack about finance, and most folks who have CFA's and/or MBA's don't know jack about code. If you have knowlege of both you will be putting yourself in a very good position IMHO.

The ATM is closing down 45%. The ecomony will die. Alan Greenspan state that $700bn was contributed to the 2005 from MEWs (Mortgage Equity Withdrawals, ie refi's, HELOC's, etc).

1/31/2006
Freddie Mac reports that as interest-rates rise, prime borrowers (those with the best credit) are taking out fewer cash-out refinances.The volume of cash-out refis from prime mortgages is expected to drop to $114.5 billion this year from a record $204 billion in 2005. This year’s expected level is similar to 2002 levels, according to Freddie Mac.

tester

OT
Go back to the site and see my comment on why they are bad.

I may have the distinction of being the only person on this blog that is BOTH a bitter renter and bitter homeowner!

You're at least 1 of 2. But then again, I'm just generally bitter. I reject the notion that anyone "earns" equity. It's not like they actually did anything to earn it (and spare me the risk-reward arguments, they don't hold up under a fair analysis). I gained quite a bit in equity appreciation 1990-2004. You'll never hear me brag about it; it was nothing more than luck. I could have been born 20 years earlier or later and had different outcomes with the same inputs. For this, I am humble (and I eschew veiled bragging as we saw earlier in this thread).

Some info why high oil prices actually help us long-term.

Another case where I agree with Jeffolie. The author of this Futurist piece could use a first-principles lesson in macroeconomics. Some facts, the US only imports roughly 20% of its crude stock from the "Middle East", but prices for the entire world crude market are set by global markets, not the US' direct imports from Iran, Iraq, Saudi, etc.

Without getting overly technical, think of it like this. Can the US (go ahead and even add in the EU, Canada, Japan, Australia, etc.) reduce their crude demand faster than China, India et. al. increase demand? Layer on this they aren't making any more oil, so the cost to extract each marginal barrel increases.

This is bad for the US no matter where we fall in the equation. It portends a global economic recession and stagflation.