patrick.net

DinOR,

I'm with SFBubbleBuyer. Being one of the few regular posters here who is a non-investment/securities/finance type, I can completely relate to what he's saying.

Your non-pro retail investor is not likely to be very good at active investing --at least not for a while, and there is a very significant learning curve. Index funds themselves can be "actively managed" (you can select sector-specific indexes), and VG is even offering low-cost ETFs now. It's a very nice way for the non-experts to get easy, decent returns at a low cost.

And as SFBB points out, index funds still manage to outperform active funds 70% of the time (see Fooled by Randomness & Random Walk). I may not become the next George Soros with index funds, but those are odds a regular schmuck like me can live with.

SFBB,

I can go along w/that. For the most part a lot of these guys are just going to be there "to feed the monkey" shortly anyway. As technology advances the "active fund mgr." will become something of a dinosaur. It just blows me away that no-load/index guys always fall back on the same tired hypothetical and no one ever challenges it.

From what I hear about Japan's recession, toilet paper was the commodity in shortest supply.

Not sanitation advice.

I say invest in Wine, it's perfectly liquid and you can drink it if it loses value.

I do hope that more smart people will accept the random walk theory. The market is getting crowded.

The market may also get crowded by Random Walkers. So, watch out.

The market may also get crowded by Random Walkers.

True random walkers will gladly accept that their under-performance is an event of chance even though they deserve higher returns.

They are harmless. :)

You guys will love this story. There are just so many things worth making fun of here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/070326/21330.html?.v=1&.pf=loans

So,

Rather than asking where our money should be parked, wouldn't it be wise to investigate the businesses that typically profit during economic downturns? In this case, wouldn't foreclosure companies profit? How about investing in alcohol and tobacco companies? Don't people drink a lot when they're depressed? I'm the dumbest-est-est investor around, but I'm trying to get better at it. I wonder if Anheuser-Busch increased profits during the dot-com bust and the recession in the early 90s?

As if I could ever give investment advice.

Heck, if I had a voodoo loan I would be confused. Do you know how many "moving parts" they have? :)

A very interesting point in Shiller’s Irrational Exuberrence (2nd edition) is that the post-dotcom stock market never really did correct in any sense “fully” (i.e. return to valuations based on anything resembling the fundamentals). P/E ratios are still well out of whack.

Perhaps the stock market has yet to fully correct. What if we are in the middle of a huge double top?

@Jimbo,

Nice find! According to that survey, the two most popular "plans" for 66% of option-ARM FBs is to refinance to a fixed (ha!), or "not have" the loan when it resets (i.e., sell for nice fat stacks --double-ha!). The other 34% don't have a plan, not even a delusional one.

Yeah, this is going to end well...

Stretch002,

My "next down payment" is invested in short term Muni bonds and a high yield CA muni fund, OPCAX. The post-tax return is a bit higher than a CD. A lot of the regulars here think that OPCAX is too risky, but I think that is nutty. If you are really convinced that the FDIC is going to fail you should "invest" is a cache of high quality firearms.

You can get Yugoslavian AK-47 knock offs for $350/each:

http://www.sksman.com/acces/rifles1.php

I am sure used Chinese rifles would be even cheaper. They are sure to hold their value in any economic situation.

Person,

I'm good friends w/ a lot of the folks at PowerShares so I won't comment further than to say, you could've done worse! :) Bruce Bond "defected from Nuveen and moved ops. to Wheaton, IL so now everyone gets to "reverse commute".

There's actually a distinction that should be made here. They have believed from inception that "enhanced indices" are the way to go. So rather than just throw your hands in the air and buy the whole index they're in a constant state of re-evaluation. It's a better way to go. ETF format, daily liquidity, intelligent stock selection. It's so crazy, it just might work!

@Surfer-X,

There's wine, there's wine, and then there is Kool-Aid.

You can get Yugoslavian AK-47 knock offs for $350/each:

http://caag.state.ca.us/firearms/regagunfaqs.htm#1

You can get Yugoslavian AK-47 knock offs for $350/each:

Not investment advice, legal advice, or any other kind of advice ;-)

I don't think there's a single rifle on that page that is still legal in the P.R.K. ("K" is for "Kalifornia").

Jimbo,

Put me down for two (2) "Taliban Specials"!

HARM, I remember California once declared the Walther P22 (a 22 cal pea shooter) an assault weapon because it had a threaded barrel.

Perhaps soon enough only black-powder muzzle-loaders will be legal in PRK.

Don't all you Kalifornians out there worry though. Even while she was busy disarming you, Senator Boxer managed to get a concealed gun permit and provide her own private security force with plenty of banned automatic weapons.

"What's holding you back from buying a house right now"

40% said they simply did not have enough money.

Well that certainly hasn't stopped any soon to be moguls over the last 4 years!

13% said, nothing they plan to buy.

The balance were waiting for credit scores to improve or had NO INTENTION of buying! So out of the 1,000 + surveyed by bankrate.com (the "where is the love survey") only about 130 plan to strap a board to their @$$ and take the plunge! Dark times indeed.

According to this page there are only 10 CCW permits in SF county.

http://www.packing.org/state/california/

@Peter P,

Why, how ignorant of you. Naturally, if you own a gun with a threaded barrel, this will only encourage you to attach a silencer and try to assassinate our Dear Leaders, who are protecting us from all those nasty "assault" weapons.

I'm sorry, but how could you "not know" what kind of mortgage you have?

El HARM-O, how goes it?

Peter P, still throwin up gang signs at work?

A buddy just returned from Lake County, OR (Fort Rock area) and said after a day of rattlesnake hunting they walked into to saloon and were served as long as they kept their pistols in their holsters. They didn't see a problem.

Me bad. I forget that people will take advantage of that feature and harm mice and squirrels silently.

@Mr. X, Randy H & Peter P,

So, do we have a date for the next NCAL blog party? I'd like to be there.

HARM etal. I look forward to meeting the general counsel of HARM-X Industries LLC GmbH

Last year Berkshire Hathaway had a market cap of about $130 Billion with over $35 Billion (more than 25%) in cash. I’ve got about 30% of my net worth in cash today and like Buffett I’m always looking for places to invest it where I get a good safe return.

I’ve been remodeling kitchens and bathrooms as tenants move out, but I’m happy with a lot of cash since I feel that the risk of loss due to inflation is less than the risk of loss from real estate dropping in value, stocks dropping in value or bonds dropping in value…

Peter P Says:

> You can get Yugoslavian AK-47
> knock offs for $350/each:

You can’t go wrong investing in quality firearms (that does not include most guns made in Eastern Europe)…

Most of the guns I’ve had since I was a kid have tripled in value and I could convert all of them in to cash by the end of the day…

I’m happy with a lot of cash since I feel that the risk of loss due to inflation is less than the risk of loss from real estate dropping in value, stocks dropping in value or bonds dropping in value…

FAB,

Any regular would agree with you on RE, but what makes you think that (non-RE related) stocks are necessarily primed for a big drop? I would say there's a reasonable chance of a finance/MBS/consumer-led plunge larger than what we've already seen, but are most (non-RE) stocks really that overvalued in general?

As far as Treasuries go, I don't see how you can lose here. U.S. debt is fully backed by Uncle Sam, so unless we lose the ability to print money, I can't see how that could happen. Corporate debt is of course a completely different story...

"Don’t all you Kalifornians out there worry though. Even while she was busy disarming you, Senator Boxer managed to get a concealed gun permit and provide her own private security force with plenty of banned automatic weapons."

Hey wait a minute. Boxer didnt disarm anyone. You can go to anyone of
the shooting ranges or gun clubs in the Bay Area and see for yourself.

As for Boxer hereself lets drill into the East Coast Left Wing bio, Boxer is a NY Liberal all the way... She calls her self Californian but she is far from it.

"Barbara Levy was born into a Jewish family with a Polish-born mother in Brooklyn, New York. She attended public schools, and graduated from Wingate High School in 1958. She also attended Camp Kinder Ring in Hopewell Junction, New York. Levy graduated from Brooklyn College in 1962 with a degree in Economics. She was a member of the Delta Phi Epsilon sorority, in the Phi chapter. Later the same year she married Stewart Boxer"

Space_Acer,

I think most of those club members actually keep their firearms at the club? You were kidding, right?

Person,

Actually... no. Besides a margin loan isn't something that necessarily requires repayment. Most don't, or at least until they sell some of their leveraged holdings to get their equity back to 100%. It's strictly an arrangement between you and the broker. Btw, what's your broker loan rate?

Hey wait a minute. Boxer didnt disarm anyone. You can go to anyone of the shooting ranges or gun clubs in the Bay Area and see for yourself.

Oh, please. So the fact that are still a few gun types left that haven't *yet* been banned in the PRK, this means everything's cool. And the fact BB has her own concealed permit and private army, while arbitrarily outlawing what I can carry is perfectly ok, because, y'know, she really needs it...

Exactly how does one define a "conspicuous" pistol grip? And how does the existence of a thumb-hole turn an ordinary rifle into an "assault weapon"? Does any feature that increases the ability of the shooter to aim accurately turn that gun into an "assualt weapon"?

At the rate we're going, all we'll all be left with very soon are Peter P's black-powder muzzle-loaders.

@Space_Acer,

If you were being sarcastic, my bad. ;-)

Hmm, the foreign presses are all abuzz that the US has plans to attack Iran on April 6th. What will that do to the market and the price of oil? It seems to me that even hints of rumours about a potential attack like that could be used for profiteering in today's volatile markets.

Person,

The brokerage won't let your equity tank that far. You'll get a "margin call". When your equity gets below a certain percentage, they will automatically liquidate holdings in your account to pay off the margin loan.