patrick.net

El HARM-O, how goes it?

Peter P, still throwin up gang signs at work?

A buddy just returned from Lake County, OR (Fort Rock area) and said after a day of rattlesnake hunting they walked into to saloon and were served as long as they kept their pistols in their holsters. They didn't see a problem.

Me bad. I forget that people will take advantage of that feature and harm mice and squirrels silently.

@Mr. X, Randy H & Peter P,

So, do we have a date for the next NCAL blog party? I'd like to be there.

HARM etal. I look forward to meeting the general counsel of HARM-X Industries LLC GmbH

Last year Berkshire Hathaway had a market cap of about $130 Billion with over $35 Billion (more than 25%) in cash. I’ve got about 30% of my net worth in cash today and like Buffett I’m always looking for places to invest it where I get a good safe return.

I’ve been remodeling kitchens and bathrooms as tenants move out, but I’m happy with a lot of cash since I feel that the risk of loss due to inflation is less than the risk of loss from real estate dropping in value, stocks dropping in value or bonds dropping in value…

Peter P Says:

> You can get Yugoslavian AK-47
> knock offs for $350/each:

You can’t go wrong investing in quality firearms (that does not include most guns made in Eastern Europe)…

Most of the guns I’ve had since I was a kid have tripled in value and I could convert all of them in to cash by the end of the day…

I’m happy with a lot of cash since I feel that the risk of loss due to inflation is less than the risk of loss from real estate dropping in value, stocks dropping in value or bonds dropping in value…

FAB,

Any regular would agree with you on RE, but what makes you think that (non-RE related) stocks are necessarily primed for a big drop? I would say there's a reasonable chance of a finance/MBS/consumer-led plunge larger than what we've already seen, but are most (non-RE) stocks really that overvalued in general?

As far as Treasuries go, I don't see how you can lose here. U.S. debt is fully backed by Uncle Sam, so unless we lose the ability to print money, I can't see how that could happen. Corporate debt is of course a completely different story...

"Don’t all you Kalifornians out there worry though. Even while she was busy disarming you, Senator Boxer managed to get a concealed gun permit and provide her own private security force with plenty of banned automatic weapons."

Hey wait a minute. Boxer didnt disarm anyone. You can go to anyone of
the shooting ranges or gun clubs in the Bay Area and see for yourself.

As for Boxer hereself lets drill into the East Coast Left Wing bio, Boxer is a NY Liberal all the way... She calls her self Californian but she is far from it.

"Barbara Levy was born into a Jewish family with a Polish-born mother in Brooklyn, New York. She attended public schools, and graduated from Wingate High School in 1958. She also attended Camp Kinder Ring in Hopewell Junction, New York. Levy graduated from Brooklyn College in 1962 with a degree in Economics. She was a member of the Delta Phi Epsilon sorority, in the Phi chapter. Later the same year she married Stewart Boxer"

Space_Acer,

I think most of those club members actually keep their firearms at the club? You were kidding, right?

Person,

Actually... no. Besides a margin loan isn't something that necessarily requires repayment. Most don't, or at least until they sell some of their leveraged holdings to get their equity back to 100%. It's strictly an arrangement between you and the broker. Btw, what's your broker loan rate?

Hey wait a minute. Boxer didnt disarm anyone. You can go to anyone of the shooting ranges or gun clubs in the Bay Area and see for yourself.

Oh, please. So the fact that are still a few gun types left that haven't *yet* been banned in the PRK, this means everything's cool. And the fact BB has her own concealed permit and private army, while arbitrarily outlawing what I can carry is perfectly ok, because, y'know, she really needs it...

Exactly how does one define a "conspicuous" pistol grip? And how does the existence of a thumb-hole turn an ordinary rifle into an "assault weapon"? Does any feature that increases the ability of the shooter to aim accurately turn that gun into an "assualt weapon"?

At the rate we're going, all we'll all be left with very soon are Peter P's black-powder muzzle-loaders.

@Space_Acer,

If you were being sarcastic, my bad. ;-)

Hmm, the foreign presses are all abuzz that the US has plans to attack Iran on April 6th. What will that do to the market and the price of oil? It seems to me that even hints of rumours about a potential attack like that could be used for profiteering in today's volatile markets.

Person,

The brokerage won't let your equity tank that far. You'll get a "margin call". When your equity gets below a certain percentage, they will automatically liquidate holdings in your account to pay off the margin loan.

I don't know. That's pretty rare. I guess they can still sell your stocks, then send some collectors after you.

Person,

Good questions. There really isn't a connect between FICO, TransUnion, Experian and the brokerage industry. We assume you are who you say you are. Obviously if you can't cover ONE margin call both the broker and yourself are going to look pretty silly. I don't think the discounters care.

However if you do get a "house call" (under 35% equity in most cases) you will incur a 3X sell out if not covered by settlement. Meaning if the call is for $1,000 the broker (as per your margin agreement) can sell out $3,000 worth of stock to cover the call. If you go into "Fed Call" (under 25% equity) they can sell out FOUR TIMES the amount of the call!

Issues trading below $10 are typically only given partial credit toward equity percentages and stocks below $5 are considered "non-marginal" securities. This is what killed a lot of people, when SUNW goes below 5 and is non-marginable many went into a "negative equity" situation where they were completely sold out, the account had NO value and the investor actually had to send in even more $'s. I'd just as soon not see you there.

BLR (broker loan rate) is usually Prime + 2 pts. up to 25K then it goes incrementally down to about Prime + 1/4 pt. on anything north of a mil. So if you're going to leverage your account, it has to make sense. Lean on something solid with an awesome dividend to off-set (as much as possible) your BLR and gravitate toward short term plays. Don't be afraid to use Stop Loss Orders and close out a position over the weekend.

If you stiff a broker/dealer the will submit your name and SS# to McDonald Reporting and make ever getting a margin account again difficult if not impossible.

Not Margin Advice

SFWoman

The key word is "rumo[u]r". Trading on gossip can be very hazardous. That the precise future date of a combat military action has somehow gotten into the foreign press is an incredible claim. I'd guess either it's not true at all or it is a diversion/misinformation. Perhaps it could be a form of brinkmanship diplomacy too. I put nothing past the guys running the machine right now.

Exactly how does one define a “conspicuous” pistol grip? And how does the existence of a thumb-hole turn an ordinary rifle into an “assault weapon”? Does any feature that increases the ability of the shooter to aim accurately turn that gun into an “assualt weapon”?

Exactly. And what is wrong with hi-cap magazines?

MVR,

Hey man! How you been?

After the tech wreck "Risk Management" depts. became more pro-active in dealing with M/C's. Early on the discounters just sent out an e-mail to the acct. holder saying "you need to send in X $'s by ___." Well that didn't work and after they got tired of getting burned they somewhat automated the sys.

Hey DinOR,

We were moving offices last week. So I haven't had time to read the blog til today. Wonderful timing on the move, just as our accountants are ramping up for the 4/15 deadline. My office has a better view now. Guess that's worth all the work.

DinOR -
See you at the Crossroads Gun Show at the Cow Palace.

All-
Maybe someone needs to remind Boxer the mess made out
of NYC by her liberal friends in the 1970s. ;)

SIPC covers far more than FDIC, 5 times in fact, plus the private insurance taken out by the brokerages.

I park 99% of my money with brokerages. If SIPC fails, I think this country will have far more to worry about than just a recession. If SIPC goes goes, that means the stock market is facing a complete meltdown, if the stock market is facing a complete meltdown, I don't think any country on earth will be spared.

Randy, at that point I won't store gold, because gold is useless, I will start hoarding fire arms, medicine, food, gasoline in buckets etc. in my backyard.

MVR,

Oh I hear ya! At least you got a better view out of the deal. We moved from SW 5th and Yamhill in Portland to SW 5th and Columbia. 1st floor. From the 11" X 17" window you could see the underside of the Tri-Met busses as they roared past!

Ok, back on topic. I'm not so worried about losing FDIC covered money. The gov can always print more. My main worry is if the FDIC gets overwhelmed, it might be a while before someone can get started working on your case.

That's why I keep most of my downpayment funds in short term treasuries. No need to worry about banks failing. If the federal government fails, then I've got bigger things to worry about.

Oh yeah, I hear that cigarettes & soap are great things to have in a doomsday scenario. Much more useful than gold, in fact.

DinOR,

Well, the good thing about being on the 1st floor is that in a fire or an earthquake, you're the first one out the door. We're on the 6th floor now, so in an emergency, I can't even survive by jumping out the window.

OO,

Thanks for pointing out SIPC's attributes! (If I say it, I'm an "industry shill"). We all pay into it every month. SIPC obviously doesn't insure anyone against a sell off in the market but rather to cover clients that may have an account at a failed brokerage. Additionally most firms have coverage to around 25 mil. per account.

I worked on the 9th floor (One Pacific Square Bldg.) when Seattle had the quake that rattled the old Starbucks bldg. It was definitely scary even that far away and felt like it went on for some time. We later learned it was only about 90 seconds. It knocked the phones out for the rest of the day.

Stretch002,

I am in similar boat with investment considerations but I won't buy any real estate till after 2010, so I park my money mostly in real assets (oil, gold, agriculture, plus a smaller portion in Euro and AUD bonds), anticipating a rampant stagflation. If your investment window is short, then I would suggest Euro or AUD bonds. I like AUD bonds because AUD is a commodity-based currency, and its government at least appears on surface is combating inflation more vigilantly than the lip-service of Fed.

If this coming Oz rate hike goes through, AUD will be looking at 6.5% interest rate. However, I think the recent rise of AUD is a bit too fast, so a pullback may be coming soon, although I also anticipate in about a few years, AUD will be on 1:1 basis with USD. Australia government is entirely debt free, Australia's most important exports like minerals, agriculture and energy, will be less exchange-rate sensitive if USD's status as the world's reserve currency is seriously challenged.

USD has only one way to go, IMHO, down.

Wow, no real goldbugs! Just a couple of reasonable queries and a smartass or two ;) I'm happily proven wrong.

Maybe there is hope yet.

Gold is too heavy. I'd rather collect diamonds.

This is funny:

http://consumerfreedom.com/news_detail.cfm/headline/3278

I Wrote:

> I’m happy with a lot of cash since I feel that the risk
> of loss due to inflation is less than the risk of loss
> from real estate dropping in value, stocks dropping
> in value or bonds dropping in value…

Then HARM Says

> Any regular would agree with you on RE, but what
> makes you think that (non-RE related) stocks are
> necessarily primed for a big drop? I would say there’s
> a reasonable chance of a finance/MBS/consumer-led
> plunge larger than what we’ve already seen, but are
> most (non-RE) stocks really that overvalued in general?

It is hard to get accurate numbers, but Trillions (with a T) of cash has flowed in to the US economy from cash out refis over the past few years (Not to mention the Billions from the Bush Tax cut). With cash out refis slowing to a trickle and more and more of the cash people earn every month going toward mortgage payments with the huge number of low teaser rates adjusting there will be a lot less consumer spending in the next few years. I feel that this drop in spending will cut earnings at almost every company in America (with escalating hearth care costs and other benefit costs cutting earnings even more)…

P.S. I’m not a doom and gloom guy, but I think that we are set for a slowdown in corporate earnings. I still own a lot of stock in a Russell 2000 index (I last invested in the fund ~1998) and a S&P 500 index (that I stopped putting 401k money in to ~1999 but I probably dumped about $50K in to over the past 5 years)…

None of this new fangled metal thingie. It's shells and pebbles for me.

@Peter P,

Yup. Vegan food Nazis are almost as hypocritical as anti-gun Nazis.

"a lot less consumer spending in the next few years."

"drop in spending will cut earnings"

"escalating health care costs"

Well... it's kind of hard to argue that! But I am trying to look past it? Seems to me everyone (and I do mean EVERYONE) wants to get thru this housing correction as quickly as possible. Finally found one thing we and the REIC can agree on! If that means subs, banks and GSE's gotta eat it, well then... whatever.

Loan work-outs, builder price reductions/incentives, debt forgiveness? Most Americans don't care. We DO (most don't care how it gets resolved). If we can revert to the mean, re-claim our incomes, break the addiction cycle and get people paying for jet ski's and RV's with their paycheck rather than MEW there's a chance we can pull through. Health care costs? Can't help you there.

That's just how juvenile this whole debacle feels (to me anyway). Like borrowing the old man's car, putting a dent in it, your date threw up on the dashboard and you're just wishing you could close your eyes and have it be the day "before" all this happened!

The REIC and their "necessary evil" (FB's) really don't give a rip how they get out of this. Just that they DO! Look for modest atonement and another round of creative financing.

DinOR,

well, since SIPC has never been put to a stress test before, I figured that I may have a slight chance of being the guinea pig :-) We will see what the claiming process will be compared to FDIC.

My other reasoning of why SIPC may matter more than FDIC is, based on what I read from financial journals, it seems like America has two types of people: those who save, and those who don't. Those who don't operate on a paycheck to paycheck basis, so even if they have a banking balance, it is likely to be very minimal. Those who save are more likely to put their money in brokerage than letting it sleep in the bank.

OO,

I'll do a little checking but like I say every check I've ever gotten had an SIPC assessment taken out of it. Wouldn't it take an insolvency along the scale of Merrill Lynch to put a strain on the system though? Since many of the boiler rooms that went under in the 90's weren't even NASD approved firms they probably weren't covered under SIPC anyway.

Iran is 4x as large as Iraq, with 4x the population. It's rich, armed, unified, allied, and the seat of the ancient Persian empire. Good luck with those attack plans...