patrick.net

This is funny:

http://consumerfreedom.com/news_detail.cfm/headline/3278

I Wrote:

> I’m happy with a lot of cash since I feel that the risk
> of loss due to inflation is less than the risk of loss
> from real estate dropping in value, stocks dropping
> in value or bonds dropping in value…

Then HARM Says

> Any regular would agree with you on RE, but what
> makes you think that (non-RE related) stocks are
> necessarily primed for a big drop? I would say there’s
> a reasonable chance of a finance/MBS/consumer-led
> plunge larger than what we’ve already seen, but are
> most (non-RE) stocks really that overvalued in general?

It is hard to get accurate numbers, but Trillions (with a T) of cash has flowed in to the US economy from cash out refis over the past few years (Not to mention the Billions from the Bush Tax cut). With cash out refis slowing to a trickle and more and more of the cash people earn every month going toward mortgage payments with the huge number of low teaser rates adjusting there will be a lot less consumer spending in the next few years. I feel that this drop in spending will cut earnings at almost every company in America (with escalating hearth care costs and other benefit costs cutting earnings even more)…

P.S. I’m not a doom and gloom guy, but I think that we are set for a slowdown in corporate earnings. I still own a lot of stock in a Russell 2000 index (I last invested in the fund ~1998) and a S&P 500 index (that I stopped putting 401k money in to ~1999 but I probably dumped about $50K in to over the past 5 years)…

None of this new fangled metal thingie. It's shells and pebbles for me.

@Peter P,

Yup. Vegan food Nazis are almost as hypocritical as anti-gun Nazis.

"a lot less consumer spending in the next few years."

"drop in spending will cut earnings"

"escalating health care costs"

Well... it's kind of hard to argue that! But I am trying to look past it? Seems to me everyone (and I do mean EVERYONE) wants to get thru this housing correction as quickly as possible. Finally found one thing we and the REIC can agree on! If that means subs, banks and GSE's gotta eat it, well then... whatever.

Loan work-outs, builder price reductions/incentives, debt forgiveness? Most Americans don't care. We DO (most don't care how it gets resolved). If we can revert to the mean, re-claim our incomes, break the addiction cycle and get people paying for jet ski's and RV's with their paycheck rather than MEW there's a chance we can pull through. Health care costs? Can't help you there.

That's just how juvenile this whole debacle feels (to me anyway). Like borrowing the old man's car, putting a dent in it, your date threw up on the dashboard and you're just wishing you could close your eyes and have it be the day "before" all this happened!

The REIC and their "necessary evil" (FB's) really don't give a rip how they get out of this. Just that they DO! Look for modest atonement and another round of creative financing.

DinOR,

well, since SIPC has never been put to a stress test before, I figured that I may have a slight chance of being the guinea pig :-) We will see what the claiming process will be compared to FDIC.

My other reasoning of why SIPC may matter more than FDIC is, based on what I read from financial journals, it seems like America has two types of people: those who save, and those who don't. Those who don't operate on a paycheck to paycheck basis, so even if they have a banking balance, it is likely to be very minimal. Those who save are more likely to put their money in brokerage than letting it sleep in the bank.

OO,

I'll do a little checking but like I say every check I've ever gotten had an SIPC assessment taken out of it. Wouldn't it take an insolvency along the scale of Merrill Lynch to put a strain on the system though? Since many of the boiler rooms that went under in the 90's weren't even NASD approved firms they probably weren't covered under SIPC anyway.

Iran is 4x as large as Iraq, with 4x the population. It's rich, armed, unified, allied, and the seat of the ancient Persian empire. Good luck with those attack plans...

It’s rich, armed, unified, allied, and the seat of the ancient Persian empire.

We need 300 brave warriors...

We need 300 brave warriors…

Preferrably in leather speedos and capes.

Something from the neo-'con' handbook:

"The size of the lie is a definite factor in causing it to be believed, for the vast masses of a nation are in the depths of their hearts more easily deceived than they are consciously and intentionally bad. The primitive simplicity of their minds renders them a more easy prey to a big lie than a small one, for they themselves often tell little lies, but would be ashamed to tell big lies."

-- Joseph Goebbels

"If this were a dictatorship, it would be a heck of a lot easier, just so long as I'm the dictator."

-- George W. Bush, December 18, 2000

SFBubbleBuyer Says:
We need 300 brave warriors…
Preferably in leather speedos and capes.

That would certainly startle and possibly dazzle them, at least momentarily...

That would certainly startle and possibly dazzle them, at least momentarily…

But it will inspire a whole nation against the invaders.

"Iran is 4x as large as Iraq, with 4x the population. It’s rich, armed, unified, allied, and the seat of the ancient Persian empire. Good luck with those attack plans… "

And after 10 years of fighting with IRAQ which they could not defeat
they gladly signed a cease-fire agreement.

IRAQ fell in two weeks when US forces invaded. Come on ... who you fooling! There are plenty of Iranians that hate the mulahs!!!

BTW, they are corned on all four borders by US forces from the North East West and South...

No where to run !
No where to hide !

"But it will inspire a whole nation against the invaders."

Give me a break! There are plenty of people who be glad
to rid of the Mulahs! You be sick to death of Jerry Falwell and
his cronnies if his kind ran the goverment dictatorship.

“a lot less consumer spending in the next few years.”
“drop in spending will cut earnings”
“escalating health care costs”

People dump their homes and mortgages and start to rent thus saving more because in SF BA rent is 1/2 of owning.. With more disposal income availble, consumer spending is still robust. LOL! No doom and gloom
after the RE bust.

After a 55% haircut... those of us with cash (and great credit) on the side lines pick up homes dirt cheap. Only after 55% haircut... and merry way!

Speedos and capes...talk about shock and awe!!

Huh?

Patrick, the FDIC won't fail. If it did, your money wouldn't be worth anything anyway and we would all probably be pointing rifles at eachother's houses waiting for some threatening move. Some readers may want to remind themselves that unless something has changed, I believe the insurance is only up to 100K per account.

My view is that gold is overpriced right now. I've pretty much sold off all of mine. The reason I say this is because gold is a great hedge against inflation, but is a dog during deflation, especially given the speculative runup. Most people on this board I would think aren't expecting a huge jump in inflation though I do think you should keep an eye on interest rates as a guage of what the government predicts inflation will do. Another thing I don't like is that even if it were to go up it needs to go up a lot for it to even be worth the opportunity costs and the spreads of selling and buying. The best I was able to do is sell at 2.5% below spot. You can sell it on Ebay, but the fees make it disadvantageous. That's just my opinion.

When the standing ARMY is no longer able or willing to operate
than yes! Its been defeated It a a miltary power no longer exists.
After two weeks, the Iraqi army ceased to be ...

The Iraq-Iran war lasted 10 years ... no victory for either side.

Diwakar Says:

"It’s starting to freak me out...Where do I put my money now?..."

"Where do you guys think my money will be safe in next coming years?. I’m very skeptical about stock markets/bonds. As I think its going to be taken down by housing and credit expansion."
_____

Michael Holliday scratches his head, ponders the situtation for a second, then reaches his hand across the table, into a bag of Chips Ahoy chocolate chip cookies, pulls one out, and hungrily takes a big bite.

As usual, a crunching sound is heard as half the cookie crumbles onto his shirt, some tumbling in a flurry onto the floor.

He greedily takes a gulp of his midday elixer, Hi-C fruit punch, wipes off the red mustache residue onto his shirt sleeve, snuffles twice, walks over to the window and cautiously pulls back the blinds to take a gander at his broke-ass neighors.

Once again they are arguing incessantly, chattering like squirrels, going at it on the driveway with gusto and verve...Accusations of infidelity now and then punctuate the "F YOUs," and "NO, YOU'RE THE CHEAP ASS."

He turns away in ennui and disgust, just as a wine glass crash sound can be heard smashing against dude's leased BMW as it tears out of the driveway.

Michael ponders his neighbors' domestic catastrophe for a second, sits down wearily, surveys the crumbs scattered on the table, chair and floor, and thinks to himself, "looks like a general state of freakout is preponderant around here now. Is this localized or is someting larger, bigger looming on the horizon? Perhaps the 'fearful symmetry' of a frightful new financial Zeitgeist is taking shape?"

Knock...knock...knock...

Michael's negative contemplative state is suddenly broken with a rap, rap, rap on his front door.

Michael gets up, the crunching sound of cookie crumbs can be heard under his feet, as he follows the trail of crumbs to his front door. But not before sneaking one last chocolate chip cookie for the road.

He cracks open the door a sliver, peers out, then asks, "what's up?" Scarcely waiting for the reply, he munches into the chocolate chip disk.

Diwakar stands there with his frazzled hair sticking up like Einstein. Sporting a grizzled mug and with a quizzical look on his face he pronounces to a bewhiskered Michael Holliday, "I'm scared dude. Where should I put my cold, hard cash?"

Holliday cracks the door open a few more inches, looks Diwakar up and down, as if to size him up, and says, "You're skinny and weak looking. Wait right here, I'll be right back."

After what seems like an interminable length of time, Diwakar stares in bewilderment as a hand bearing two Chips Ahoy chocolate chip cookies emerges from the crack in the door with the solemn pronouncement, "take two cookies and call me in the morning."

Urgently, the bemused neighbor grasps the cookies greedily--with an almost prehensile grip--a muffled crunching sound can be heard as crumbs tumble like marbles onto Michael's porch.

A slight sniffle sound can be heard as Michael quickly shuts the door...

Diwakar lingers like a song on Michael's porch for a few seconds. He stares blankly down at the valuable stash of cookies in his hand, those pearls of great price.

...TO BE CONTINUED

TOS -
Heck anyone can debate after the shoting war ended.

As someone once said back in late 1980's regarding
the US war with Japan in WWII...
"... we won the military war in 1945
... but we lost the economic war by 1989"

we could say the same regarding Communism
"... we won the cold war which was dominated by Russia in 1990
... but we lossing the economic war dominated by China today"

Perverse statement...

How cheap are a few more electrons for the Fed to ship out overnight to a few more of these banks?

Randy and others in Marin will be happy that even after the death threat the Marin Real Estate Bubble Blog is back:

http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/

Dont' know if OPCAX is risky, but it seems outrageously expensive.
Expense ratio is .92%, 12B1 fees .24%, front end sales load is 4.75%. Yield is approximately 4.78%

Compare that with Vanguard's California Muni Market fund VCTXX - only expense is .13%. Yield is 3.48%

I'd seen marinite was back a couple days ago. I'm glad too because that blog is often where I point people when referring to Marin's hyper-corrupt real estate practices. Like we were talking about a couple days ago. Marin is one of those places where the law is merely a set of suggested guidelines when it comes to real estate transactions.

Anonymous Cowards are apt to issue various threats to people spreading a message they don't want heard. I just had another round on my blog again recently too, though thankfully nothing like death threats. I hope everyone knows that reasonably credible death threats delivered via email are taken seriously by the FBI, and they will respond to requests for investigation.

Danville Woman,

I have a chunk in VCTXX.

I hope everyone knows that reasonably credible death threats delivered via email are taken seriously by the FBI, and they will respond to requests for investigation.

Randy, you need to apply for a CCW permit. Or do they issue such a thing to regular folks who are not anti-gun politicians in Marin? :)

Jon, I always see the market as a zero-sum game. Randy would strongly disagree though.

Elliott Wave folks are also predicting a big crash, I am not too sure about that though.

Danville woman,

I have a managed brokerage account, where I pay 1% annually and get sales fees waved for most funds. Otherwise, you are right, it would not make sense. I actually should probably switch back to the "per trade" model, since I am pretty much where I want to be. Vanguard probably makes more sense for most people.

Peter - I don’t disagree, necessarily, but if that’s true, then where do you see the average retirement account going?

The numbers are growing. Does that mean that each and every retiree will have increase purchasing power? Or does that mean that early retirees (those who cash out first) will have better deals?

OT: Is WordPerfect any good? Or should I buy Office from MSFT?

The reason I don't worry about the FDIC making good on my deposit is because I don't use CD's. I just use the bank for paying bills and miscellaneous cash.

If I want a CD-type vehicle, I use the Ibonds instead.

I-bonds are not FDIC insured. They are better than that: they are direct Treasury debt. Of course, the Treasury could default some day, probably will some day, so that's why its good to also have a big chunk of your capital into some other store of value besides USD. (Like, home equity for example).

The interest rate right now is 4.5%, federal tax deferred, always exempt from state and local tax. So for most Californians that means tax equivalent yield of about 4.9%. Not as good as the highest yielding CD's, but then there is the tax deferral and SIT exemption.

There is forfeiture of 90-d worth of interest if they are redeemed early, not really much different from the CD penalties. The minimum purchase amount is $50. The max is $30,000 per year. So it's not really an option for the wealthy elites on this website, but it is for the blue collar types like me.

I used and supported WordPerfect last quite a few years ago. I never liked it, as it still used those formatting codes which you toggled on and off. And it was pretty clunky in general with its formatting concepts. We had a hybrid 'best of breed' office solution at the time rather than using suites such as MS-Office, not that WordPerfect was really best of breed, it was just a management-speak cop-out for saying they bought the wrong product, and hadn't thought about the benefits of interoperating. I now do a lot of development and data analysis work in Access, including heavy ODBC querying, and port the results out to Excel for pivot tables or emailing, etc depending on need. I also embed Word docs in Access reports for mailshots and so on. So there's efficiency and capability dividends in interoperating...

Peter P,

Download Open Office and try that first.

I downloaded something called Star Office once, never installed it... :|

hmm, just read about the openoffice-staroffice link. They have a built-in PDF writer, I had to get some flaky freeware thing called PrimoPDF to do that...

As Sun said, it was cheaper to buy another office suite company than it was to buy 42,000 MS-Office licenses for its employees...

There's a lot of mess in MS-Office, lack of consistency of interfaces and some funny dialogs and so forth, and MS-Access uses a mess of ADO and DAO technologies etc. However, I use VBA across all apps, especially in Access to automate a lot of stuff for our business, such as processing e-mail attachments and reading them into tables, and automation into our ERP, including producing a whole alternative front-end...

I use Open Office on my new laptop. The interface can be a little clunky for new users, but all the functionality is there. It's good if you're not a heavy Office user at home.