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April is the clueless month


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2007 Apr 1, 5:45am   3,822 views  40 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

It is April again. Is it a cruel month? Are we clueless? How is the mythical spring bounce progressing? Is housing inventory rising as expected?

Since tax day this year has been scrapped, perhaps potential home-buyers will use this newfound wealth to bid up housing.*

* April Fool's Day joke, please disregard.

#housing

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20   Randy H   2007 Apr 2, 1:44am  

DinOR

The difference is in the fiduciary responsibility. RE agents and brokers have none.

21   DaBoss   2007 Apr 2, 1:49am  

Jimbo - They said the same thing over and over several years now... "There back".... But its been lack luster.

Sorry but double digit growth of the type we saw in mid-90's aint there.
Aside from that ... nothing out there that is earch shattering...
Most of these new companies are hardware companies with declining ASP (Avg Selling Price) and geared to consumers not corporate buyers (thats where the payoff is)... Think IBM, Cisco, and other ???

Actually 80 today compared to 450 in 1999 nationally. Most of the 80 are NOT in Silicon Valley. There is no need to be located in SV anymore, tech is far too spread out.

You will find far more M&A today than IPO in the cards. Its just too costly!

22   DinOR   2007 Apr 2, 2:07am  

Randy H,

True, true but isn't it frustrating the way these people will have doctored loan doc's, made gross misrepresentations and still somehow not only evade ANY form of prosecution but likely get back into the loan racket when it's "hot" again?

Here we have people that have displayed wanton disregard for all things regulatory and yet we have no mechanism in place to make sure they don't re-enter the very same racket at a time and place of their choosing?

Since there doesn't seem to be ANY record of whatsoever pertaining to the MB's "wallpaper" they were writing they're free to pursue employment in just about any area of financial sales. The truth is, they shouldn't be within a country mile of handling money period. Who here would want someone that wrote loans to illegals while fluffing up their sources of income selling their mom an annuity? Estate planning? A toaster?

23   skibum   2007 Apr 2, 2:08am  

New Century filing for bankruptcy. Details soon.

Person,

Here's a link:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/02/news/companies/new_century_bankruptcy/index.htm?postversion=2007040211

3200 jobs for the Irvine, CA based outfit. That can't be good for the Orange Cty economy.

24   Peter P   2007 Apr 2, 3:09am  

This thread is so slow... perhaps we need a new thread.

25   Peter P   2007 Apr 2, 3:29am  

I suspect that in a year no one will care about sub-people because the focus will be on prime mortgages.

26   Peter P   2007 Apr 2, 3:29am  

s/sub-people/sub-prime people

(NO PUN INTENDED) :)

27   DinOR   2007 Apr 2, 3:30am  

skibum,

What's more is those are 3,200 jobs that ain't a comin' back. Everybody that worked there will always look back and judge every future job they might have as definitely inferior to NEWC. In fact most will lament for the rest of their lives that they never had it so easy.

Ahhh, for back in the day! :(

28   Peter P   2007 Apr 2, 3:33am  

In my more drilled-down searches, inventory is about 10% above the same time last year.

Which means "not yet".

We will see 200%-1000% YOY inventory increases when IT comes.

29   Randy H   2007 Apr 2, 3:34am  

There's news hitting today about Alt-A troubles percolating. Some lenders getting hit in share prices.

30   lunarpark   2007 Apr 2, 3:39am  

Anyone know how the 2br condo market in Mtn. View is holding up? My friend is looking to sell, NEEDS to sell - wants last summer's prices.

31   Peter P   2007 Apr 2, 3:40am  

There’s news hitting today about Alt-A troubles percolating. Some lenders getting hit in share prices.

Oooh. Reflexivity is reversing.

32   Peter P   2007 Apr 2, 3:42am  

Anyone know how the 2br condo market in Mtn. View is holding up?

It seems newer townhouses near downtown is holding up. How old is the place? Is it worthy enough for google employees?

33   lunarpark   2007 Apr 2, 3:45am  

It's an older townhouse style condo. I'm not sure if it's google-worthy :)

34   Peter P   2007 Apr 2, 3:50am  

It’s an older townhouse style condo. I’m not sure if it’s google-worthy

Perhaps the listing agent can offer better advice. :)

35   HARM   2007 Apr 2, 3:55am  

Which means “not yet”.

We will see 200%-1000% YOY inventory increases when IT comes.

Contra Costa may be holding (for now), but it appears to be the exception: http://bubbletrackinggraphs.blogspot.com/
I suppose the East Bay really is special... :-(

36   DinOR   2007 Apr 2, 3:58am  

I just opened one of our internal broker/dealer research e-mails and they describe RE as "The House of Pain" :)

Keep up the good work fellas!

37   Peter P   2007 Apr 2, 4:06am  

New thread: STRIVE Act

38   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 2, 4:07am  

lunarpark,

Convince them to get the f'ing thing on the market NOW. When the Alt-A funding starts drying up, the poo will really hit the fan.

I have a co-worker who has a house closing this month. She took a lower offer with a higher downpayment because she figured the higher offer with little downpayment would get yanked.

39   lunarpark   2007 Apr 2, 4:17am  

I told her she should move quickly. She is one of these people who lags - started "thinking" about selling last year. But now she REALLY needs the money. She's going negative every month - putting the extra expenses on credit cards, etc. She's taken out so much money from the condo too - so she needs to enough to cover.

40   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 2, 7:53am  

It sounds like she is screwed. She should get it on the market ASAP, and she should be considering taking less that what she 'needs' in order to avoid chasing the market down. Get the latest comps, and price it 50k under to try and get some bidding on it and get it under contract ASAP.

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